USTEC.F trade ideas
2025 vs 2024 Growth comparison and OutlookPEPPERSTONE:NAS100 PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 2025 growth % is now more or less where 2024 was at the same date (+16% YTD) the difference is that last year in September Fed cut 0.5% and there was a bright future with inflation really going down, unemployment low and election coming. This year instead we have for the last quarter a GDP that is slowing , higher inflation (it did not decrease vs last September) and definitely a worst employment situation..So in 2022 NAS100 did another 10% from sep to dec 2024 to get to 26% . I really doubt we will do the same this year.(it would mean closing 2025 at 26400!...Just too put thinks in perspective PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 2025 growth % is now more or less where 2024 was at the same date (+16% YTD) the difference is that last year in September Fed cut 0.5% and there was a bright future with inflation really going down, unemployment low and election coming. This year instead we have for the last quarter a GDP that is slowing , higher inflation (it did not decrease vs last September) and definitely a worst employment situation..So in 2022 NAS100 did another 10% from sep to dec 2024 to get to 26% . I really doubt we will do the same this year.(it would mean closing 2025 at 26400!...Just too put thinks in perspective
Recession “Announcements” vs. Reality — A Contrarian SignalMost traders anchor their sentiment to the official declarations of a recession. But here’s the catch: by the time policymakers and institutions announce “we are in a recession”, the contraction has almost always run its course.
If you are waiting for an official announcement we are in a recession in order to get out, It will be too late. You will likely be selling to the smart money buying for the eventual rise.
The game is rigged against the novice trader relying on generally available news.
On the chart:
The orange line marks the actual recession periods identified by economic data.
The red background shading highlights when the recession was officially recognized and reported.
Notice the lag: announcements consistently come after the worst is already behind us. Historically, these “recognition windows” line up closer with market bottoms than with tops.
👉 The key takeaway:
When you hear that a recession has been declared, it’s often not a sell signal — it’s closer to a buy signal. By then, the market has already priced in the pain, and recovery is underway.
This perspective flips conventional wisdom on its head: don’t fear the announcement — see it as confirmation that the worst is behind us. And do not wait for it to tell you we are going in to a recession, look at what the smart money is doing, what insiders are doing, what the banks are doing. Many thin that lower interest rates means a boost to business. But they are wrong.
Banks will charge as much as they think the economy can sustain. If Interest rates are rising, they know that business will be doing better. Falling interest rates tells you the banks know they can not get away with charging more and the economy is tanking.
17.09.2025 US100 H1 Long
Good morning, everyone,
U100 H1 Long
Only tradable on HTF in my opinion. BP, why waste time and energy on small counter trades when it can be so easy?
Yes, it can go wrong, of course... but the trend is your friend.
Today's news is therefore only tradable in my opinion; everything else is too risky for me.
US NAS 100Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Index Hits All-Time HighNasdaq 100 Analysis: Index Hits All-Time High
As the chart shows, today the Nasdaq 100 index has, for the first time in history, climbed above the 24,500 level.
According to media reports, bullish sentiment was driven by the long-awaited Fed decision to cut interest rates for the first time in 2025.
Although the Fed also indicated it would remain cautious about further cuts, the easing acted as a bullish catalyst for the entire stock market – European equities also advanced today, with technology companies leading the way.
Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100
When looking at the Nasdaq 100 index within the context of the September rally (highlighted by the blue channel), we note the following:
→ In mid-September, price action reflected market optimism, as the index traded in the upper half of the channel – with resistance at the upper boundary (R) and support at line S.
→ Yesterday’s volatility spike produced a similar move (marked with an arrow) to the one we highlighted in today’s earlier gold analysis, namely a sharp reversal from the lower boundary of the channel (essentially a bullish engulfing pattern, albeit less clear due to volatility and the chosen timeframe).
Following the reversal from the lower boundary, which unfolded aggressively (a sign of bullish conviction), the price advanced steadily, breaking through key levels:
→ the midline of the blue channel;
→ the R2 resistance line shown in red;
→ the former all-time high at 24,165.
Moreover, the index’s behaviour around 24,300 demonstrated the persistence of buyers – the price moved above a cluster of local resistances and then extended its rally.
Bearish view:
→ bullish momentum has pushed the RSI indicator into overbought zone;
→ when attempting to break above the psychological 24,500 level, the price failed to hold, suggesting a false bullish breakout.
Given the above, we could assume that optimism prevails in the market, supported by the Fed’s decision:
→ on the one hand, further gains towards the upper boundary of the blue channel may take place;
→ on the other hand, the market may be overheated and vulnerable to a correction (for instance, back towards the blue midline).
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Nasdaq 100 Eyes 24,550–25,050 if Fed Signals Dovish ToneUSNAS100 – Technical Overview
The Nasdaq remains in focus as traders await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later this week.
Markets largely expect a 25 bps cut, but the key driver will be Chair Powell’s tone on inflation, labor-market weakness, and tariff risks.
Earlier record highs across U.S. indexes were fueled by tech strength and optimism over U.S.–China trade talks, while gold’s surge to new highs underscores strong safe-haven demand.
Technical Outlook
📉 Correction phase
Price is expected to retest 24,240 → 24,115 before attempting another bullish leg.
A sustained drop below 24,110 would expose deeper support at 23,870.
📈 Bullish continuation
Holding above 24,240 – 24,115 keeps the broader uptrend intact.
Once consolidation is complete, a renewed rally targets 24,550 → 24,800, with a potential extension to 25,050 if the Fed delivers a more dovish message.
Key Levels
Pivot: 24,380
Resistance: 24,550 – 24,800 – 25,050
Support: 24,240 – 24,115 – 23,870
📌 Market Context:
A 25 bps Fed cut may offer moderate support for tech-heavy indices, while a more aggressive 50 bps cut could accelerate the next breakout toward fresh ATHs. Conversely, a hawkish tone from Powell could trigger a deeper correction before the next leg higher.
NAS100 H4 | Bullish continuation in playUS100 has bounced off the buy entry at 23,984.23, which is a pullback support and could rise from this level to the upside.
Stop loss is at 23,721.86, which is an overlap support.
Take profit is at 24,853.60, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
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Nas100 - Trading zones at all time highWith price pushing into fresh all-time highs, reliable technical zones become harder to define due to the lack of historical data. This increases uncertainty and makes it essential to treat the zones as guidance rather than fixed buy or sell levels. Volatility tends to rise around record territory, so traders should remain cautious.
Zone 1 – Prior All-Time High, Now Support:
Yesterday’s all-time high has now turned into a support zone after being broken to the upside. This level may hold as a launchpad for further bullish continuation, but traders should remain cautious — if price drops back below, it could trigger a sharp reversal.
Zone 2 – Former Resistance, Now Support Base:
This area has been tested multiple times, making it a high-activity zone. Yesterday it acted as resistance, but after being broken, it now serves as support. Buyers may defend this area on a retest, but if it fails, momentum could shift quickly to the downside.
This area has been tested multiple times, making it a high-activity zone. Yesterday it acted as resistance, but after being broken, it now serves as support. Buyers may defend this area on a retest, but if it fails, momentum could shift quickly to the downside.
Market sentiment turned cautiously optimistic after the Fed delivered its first 25bp rate cut of the year, lowering the policy rate to 4.00–4.25%. Hopes for further easing later in 2025 are supportive for growth stocks and the Nasdaq-100, yet Powell’s remarks highlighted lingering risks from both inflation and a cooling labor market. As a result, volatility remains elevated, and while the bias is tilted higher, confidence in sustained momentum is still fragile.
NAS100 - Last Quarter Hype or Abyss?Dear Friends in Trading,
Interesting Read:
investinglive.com
Rate cuts invigorate buying optimism at this time:
1.Investing Institutions are undeterred by "overbought conditions"
2. Will I follow the buying Hype?
3. Marching towards 25000 or a cliff?
4. Am I dragged along into extreme red to maximize annual institutional profits?
5. What does the overbought conditions tell me is the current fair market value?
23700
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
FOMC has cleared liquidity levels around this technical rangeNews Drivers do not overpower technicals, the fundamentally driven movements are just banging around into huge money pending orders. No way around these mechanics.
That what we saw today, and what will continue to happen forever and ever 💎 Not saying it will always be a ricochet like today, but the orders are always there.
US NAS100Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)