"On Sept. 18, [MSTR EVP & General Counsel] Shao Wei-Ming exercised an employee stock option to buy 10,000 shares of common stock at a price of $40.46. The same day, Ming sold 10,000 shares in multiple transactions at an average of $355.79 each."
It's telling that while 90% of retail investors thought MSTR to be undervalued last week at $355, you've got this clown exercising options and selling the shares on the open market. One has to presume he didn't think the stock was going up soon, but rather that it had hit a near term high.
Did Saylor forget to tell his EVP that the mNAV was at a multi-year low and the optics would look bad to be selling now? Or, more likely, these guys don't really give a shit about optics and shareholders as long as they can cash out.
MSTR updated latest false breakout on my stochastic momentum chart. If this were any other stonk, during a bull market like this... I did call $290, but the green zone is true demand. "if" there is any demand.
the kind of statistical analysis that makes MSTR "look" like it is a buy, when the channel has not dived in deep enough and asked "why" it is underperforming right now. Don't dogpile on this guy, he has some talent and he's not pumping it overtly, at least. He's not wrong; statistically it "is" undervalued historically, according to his stats... but it is this kind of tech or pseudo tech --without knowing the underlying narrative-- that got me into trouble in with MSTY in the first place.
Now we we keep reiterating here, Underinformed Money might well come in, drive MSTR's price up and save my bacon, but why have they not done so for the last 5 months, then? If I managed to chew my leg off and lose less than I would today, I can then think of plenty of other less places to put my money that have less jank than MSTR and Saylor. Even if it skyrockets inexplicably, after missing 3 BTC ATHs. Informed Money started leaving MSTR in May. The argument is: they are not coming back.
MSTR Remember when everyone was touting Saylor as being big buddies with the administration and other DC politicians, and I said they actually couldn't stand him and made fun of him behind his back???
Today's Headline: "U.S. regulators, including the SEC and FINRA, are probing MicroStrategy for unusual stock activity linked to significant price jumps and high trading volumes before major crypto purchases."
Saylor popped the internet bubble with his criminal accounting tactics back in 2000. Folks on Wall Street have memories like elephants, and they squarely place the blame on Saylor for costing them billions back then. And those are the folks that hold the real levers of power in DC. Not Saylor.
The ironic part is there is probably no there there with this investigation. The high-volume prior to the large purchases (like when preferreds are IPO'd) is more likely to do with arbitrage players positioning themselves in MSTR as a hedge prior to purchasing STRx IPO shares. Word is going to leak out as part of the "probing the market for interest" process carried out by the managing brokers. You don't want to announce a $2B IPO and then no one show up for the party. So calls are placed to gauge hypothetical interest with large clients prior to any official announcement. So it's easy to put 2+2 together and front-run the deal.
That's not illegal. But it does make for bad headlines, a headache for Saylor, a reminder of his past and more mounting legal expenses for the company. Probably also gets him removed from the invite list to all the DC social functions, which for him is the worst punishment of all.
Now, if it turns out he and/or other execs are front-running using dark trading accounts, that is taboo and will get them fitted for orange jumpsuits. But it's hard to believe they would risk that.
MSTR I understand that MSTR has become "decoupled" if you will from BTC. I don't understand how on a specific day, MSTR moves up similar with BTC today, and then when in the same day, the price action does not move similarly on the way down as if there is less risk to holding MSTR when BTC is down trending. Any explanations other then telling me I'm a rookie and shouldn't be trading?
MSTR Is this a dead cat bounce? The start of a recovery back to the $330 resistance level? Or a bull trap setting up the next big leg down toward $250. How to play?
I’ve opened a short-dated long straddle on MSTX (2x leverage on MSTR). I've bought 100 x $20 calls at $1.00 and 100 × $19.50 puts at $1.25 (exp. Oct 2). The total cost is $2.25/contract, and the trade profits if MSTR makes a significant move in either direction over the next week. My thesis is simple: volatility is coming. MSTR’s mNAV has compressed to ~1.40 (a level that almost never resolves sideways), Bitcoin is coiled below key resistance and poised for a breakout or breakdown, and MSTR itself just posted a 15%+ move. Historically, volatility tends to persist rather than vanish after a move that large.
The plan is to let this trade capture the next big swing. If BTC pushes higher early next week, MSTX could rally above $21, putting the calls deep ITM. If the breakout fails, a sharp reversal could send MSTX below $18 by Friday, making the puts highly profitable. If nothing happens by Wednesday, I’ll likely close the weaker side and roll the trade forward to give the move more time. This isn’t a bet on direction, it’s a bet that MSTR won’t stay flat, and the odds overwhelmingly favor continued volatility in the days ahead.
MSTRginnovinc I gave up guessing how to front-run a small bit of news like this awhile ago. but I understand your question.
And...it ended up being a good print. here's what I think tho: honestly? the AI boom has goosed stonks for the last 2 years as I have watched JOLTS, jobless claims, Job-finding rates (which no one posts and one must calculate) APD, etc all creep up. I live in Silicon Valley. Most of my uber drivers that pick me up are former career PMs from Facebook, Cisco etc. I thot people would start responding to these bad jobs, PMI, PCI prints a long fucking time ago. But... Global Liquidity keeps its upward momentum, since January 2025. That helps risk-on stonks. People are euphoric and greedy and want theirs. They are going to need a gun to their head to truly react to bad-seeming news. Think: April with "Liberation Day"--that kind of news. And even then we had a Zweig breadth thrust that made retail buy the dip and kick the ass of traditional fund managers and drove the market to where we are now. A little Core PCI being a tenth off to the bad side (which it was not, today) would cause a murmur and then, back to business. I expect the S&P and BTC to start recovering next week. bc: Momentum. MSTR? I expect it to be the last thing anyone thinks about to throw their risk-on money at. Why? because that is how it has been, since May 12. Why change now?
MSTR An unfavourable core PCE could bring BTC to 103.4 followed with a 100k test. MSTR might end up 264. If BTC does 85k range could MSTR hit 230 or below? Any suggestions fellow analysts/traders? What to expect?
MSTR 
