Watchlist 2023-03-16 $GOLD $USB $KBWE $GOLD $SNAP $XOMSPY - had another late session short covering rally to end the day. However, unlike Monday, Shorts were unable to push below 383.50 the whole day. This lead to a rally over 387 and then another retest rally to end the day. IN contrast to PD, we tested the 387 level in PM and held again. Although we are in the middle of the range between 393.50 and 380, if support continues to be bought, bulls could send us higher towards the upper range today.
Regional banks volatility has significantly dried up. The trades over the last few days have been a short after the morning shove and fade until the last hour of the day. No one wants to keep holding these names short O/N, watch for a late session rally again if shorts have been in control and they make the first higher high. $ALLY $USB
Oil names were extremely weak as oil falls 15%. Might be too extended this morning but looking to fade any weak rallies in names that are not near support.
$XOM $SHEL
$SNAP - gapping on news that congress is considering a bank of tiktok. Gapping over some key resistance at 10.50. However, RVOL in the PM is lack luster at only 0.5. Will have to wait to see buyers come in, willing to buy over PM resistance at 11.26 if we really see strength in the market. Else, gap in gap at 10.50.
$GOLD - staying above 17.10 for and showing relative strength. Made the move to 17.50 like I mentioned PD. Look for a retest of 17.20 for dip buys which is the PD high and the high vol node.
Trade ideas
Watchlist 2023-03-14 $GOLD $USB $ALLY $KBWE $GOLD $AISPY - had a late session short covering rally to end the day. Shorts were in control coming up this morning as investors remained cautious about the banking crisis and awaited more economic data for guidance on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. PPI spike at 8:30 AM which was quickly reclaimed to the PM lows past the 387 key level. Now that we are below the rising wedge on the daily, next stop should be 380 lows.
Regional banks continue with volatility. Yesterday's short covering rally would have sucked in longs and flushed out shorts. Showing particular weakness yesterday and again this morning. Looking for names that are trading near Friday's pivot low that do not have a pivot in sight or are trading below the key pivot. Needs to show weakness below the Friday's low, don't want to get caught in a swing failure so be prepared to cut quickly if it goes against you. $ALLY $USB
Also watching $KBWE bank sector EFT for relative weakness against individual names.
$GOLD - breaking above 17.10 for an inside bar play, there is room for possibly another move to 17.50. Only if SPY is showing weakness. Look for a retest of 17.10 which is the PD high and the high vol node.
$AI - gapping right to the triple bottom key 20.30 support pivot. If we see continued weakness in the QQQs, expect a push lower t8.30 support. Wait for the break and then enter on the retest where sellers are present. Don’t want to jump in and have it blow out the 20.30 level as it's come all the way from 30.
US Bancorp (USB) bullish scenario:The technical figure Channel Down can be found in the daily chart in the US company US Bancorp (USB). U.S. Bancorp is an American bank holding company. It is the parent company of U.S. Bank National Association, and is the fifth largest banking institution in the United States. The company provides banking, investment, mortgage, trust, and payment services products to individuals, businesses, governmental entities, and other financial institutions. The company also owns Elavon, a processor of credit card transactions for merchants, and Elan Financial Services, a credit card issuer that issues credit card products on behalf of small credit unions and banks across the U.S.The Channel Down broke through the resistance line on 30/11/2022. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 60 days towards 50.00 USD Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 38.39 USD if you decide to enter this position.
Investors will be hoping for strength from U.S. Bancorp as it approaches its next earnings release. The company is expected to report EPS of $1.14, up 6.54% from the prior-year quarter. Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for U.S. Bancorp. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the company's business outlook.
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USB Bullish inclined Naked Puts 28 Jan Expiry (Jan Track 3)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
US Bancorp is an American bank holding company. With the Fed intending to increasing interest rates to combat the high inflation numbers. I expect banks to see an increase in their earnings from this especially near term where consumer sentiment is still bullish.
Already the Nasdaq bank index is up around 32% for the year
I Feel
The market in my opinion is in a bearish range. With drops being deeper than the recoveries. USB and a number of the financial counters like MET, TFC, BK, BAC are in a similar price pattern. Mostly near the bottom of their range.
If the range continues it will also be aligned to my near term POV on the banking sector
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
On the flip side as I do feel we are market wide in a bearish sideways movement. Having USB drop and break the range is also a possibility. Will need to monitor this. Also the price action since 25 Oct 2021 has been bearish.
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
This trade is really not about up or down but really about trading on the lack of expected volatility. Do we expect defining movements in Jan?
Look For New Information
There is an Earnings release on the 19 Jan that I only realised after I entered the trade. This is very careless of me... I will need to be vigilant during that period. But generally earnings in the past three quarters have beaten estimates
How Do I Feel Now
Somewhat lukewarm with my decision. I believe the uncertainty is due to the 19 Jan Earnings I did not notice. Also while the daily chart is showing a range and I am reacting to it and not predicting a bottom. I am still apprehensive as it can break the range.
Trade Specs
Sold 160 Puts @ 0.25 - Strike 51
% to Strike 10.14%
ATR % is 94%
BP used 81K
Max Gain: est $3896
Cup and handle $USB USB has several things going for it here.
- Big ole cup and handle, we are testing the top of the cup now.
- Handle was a perfect downtrend, we broke above downtrend
- Now consolidating above breakout and just below ATH
- Financial sector has been hot
- If we break above consolidation highs I will enter
$USB: Monster setupAll timeframes are setting up for a big move in $USB here, daily is kicking off a fresh uptrend after the recent bottom, weekly and monthly are about to trigger a trend as well, and by EOY the yearly will flash a 10 year uptrend signal which aims for somewhere between $220 and over $1600 per share by the year 2030. I think overall, the return vs risk proposition here is tilted significantly in our favor to buy both speculative swing positions, as well as potential long term positions too.
Keep a close eye on this setup, might be extremely rewarding and it is extremely low risk considering the potential upside at hand...
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
$USB projected with a bearish outlook following its earningsThe PEAD projected a bearish outlook for $USB after a negative under reaction after earnings release placing the stock in drift D
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US BANCORP Perspective DailyHey traders, US BANCORP is in a bullish movement with low volume traded and a bear char. In the TIMEFRAME M1 we see a bull hammer candle, high chance of launching on the next high. Who is on the TIMEFRAME H4 as well and if the buyers are there to close the bearish breakout gap. Which is 42.10 to 42.25 and on the TIMEFRAME 15Min 42.10 to 42.23, which is half of the median.
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