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Samsara, Inc. Class ASamsara, Inc. Class ASamsara, Inc. Class A

Samsara, Inc. Class A

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IOT trade ideas

Samsara’s IoT Surge: A Fleet Management Play with Space to GrowSamsara NYSE:IOT , a trailblazer in the Internet of Things (IoT) for fleet management, has been turning heads since its 2021 IPO. With a market cap hovering around $17 billion and its stock quadrupling since debut, the company is riding high on analyst optimism. But beyond the hype, what’s driving Samsara’s ascent-and what risks lie ahead? From Startup to IPO Star: Samsara’s Journey Founded in 2015 by Sanjit Biswas and John Bicket-veterans of the tech world who sold their previous startup, Meraki, to Cisco-Samsara hit the ground running. By 2018, it was a unicorn valued at $1 billion, and in 2021, it raised $805 million in a high-profile IPO, catapulting its valuation to $11.5 billion. Fast forward to today, Samsara's shares rose sharply if we compare it to its IPO price, demonstrating and reinforcing investor confidence in its growth. The Business: IoT Meets Fleet Management At its core, Samsara offers cloud-based platforms that help logistics and transportation companies optimize operations. Using a mix of cameras, GPS, and AI-powered sensors, its solutions provide real-time insights into vehicle location, driver behavior, and asset tracking. In 2019, the company introduced AI-driven dashcams to monitor driver safety, and by 2021, its subscription revenue topped $300 million with 20,000 customers. Samsara got a lot of innovations, but what is the latest one? Bluetooth tags for tracking smaller assets, expanding its reach beyond vehicles to parcels and inventory. With annual recurring revenue (ARR) hitting $1.1 billion in 2024 and growing 35% year-over-year, the company’s momentum is undeniable. Financial Status: Growth with a Profitability Horizon Samsara’s financials paint a picture of rapid expansion. In Q3 2025, revenue jumped 36% to $322 million, while ARR climbed to $1.349 billion. Gross margins sit at a healthy 73%, and free cash flow is positive—a rarity for high-growth tech firms. Customer growth is equally impressive: the number of large clients (those spending over $100,000 annually) rose 30% in 2024. Nevertheless, we should note that Samsara remains unprofitable, with net losses narrowing but still present. The company is laser-focused on scaling, reinvesting heavily in R&D and customer acquisition. Analysts expect it to reach breakeven soon, but the timeline still remains a wildcard. Market Opportunity: A $100 Billion TAM Beckons Samsara’s addressable market is vast. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for fleet management and logistics IoT is estimated at $50 billion, with Samsara capturing just 1% of it. Expand that to adjacent sectors-manufacturing, industrial operations-and the TAM balloons to $100 billion. With a market share of only 1%, the runway for growth is immense. The company’s leadership in its niche is clear, though rivals like Geotab (10% market share) and Verizon Connect NYSE:VZ loom large. Samsara’s edge? A relentless focus on innovation, as seen in its AI-powered Samsara Intelligence platform and partnerships with heavyweights like DHL and Tyson Foods. Risks to Watch High-growth tech isn’t without pitfalls. Samsara faces stiff competition in a crowded field, and its reliance on rapid scaling leaves little room for error. Regulatory hurdles, especially around data privacy, could also emerge as IoT adoption spreads. Plus, the company’s unprofitability-while shrinking-remains a concern for risk-averse investors. A Growth Story with Legs At $39 per share, Samsara trades below its all-time high, but analysts see plenty of upside. Wells Fargo and Piper Sandler peg its target at $54-$55, with a consensus forecast of $49.50. Samsara NYSE:IOT offers a compelling blend of innovation, market leadership, and a massive TAM. But it’s not a slam dunk-competition and profitability hurdles loom. Still, for those betting on the IoT revolution, Samsara’s growth engine looks hard to ignore.
NYSE:IOTLong
by juliakhandoshko
6/13/24 - $iot - buyer <$30, but only big ~$20-256/13/24 - as written in a note prior to EPS, there's no getting around how expensive this is. even with $10 off the highs (from $40->$30 today) the stock still packs a 13x ev/ fwd sales multiple. is it worth paying that for 30% growth this year and 25% next where profitability remains strained and we've not yet reached true scale? here's the yes (followed by the "no"): - internet of things leader. best in class. growing like a weed and not yet climbing the s-curve - the 30% to 25% growth is wall street math (accelerating growth is tough to forecast and justify unless you dig in). mgmt is telling us they're at the early part of the adoption curve. 30% staying at 30% or going to 40% is just as likely as 30% going to 25%. if that's the case, you better believe sub 10x on that higher $1.7 bn in '25 (40% on the 1.2 bn of revenue this year) will look cheap. you'll also be scaling the opex too at that point. - love mgmt. sold meraki to NASDAQ:CSCO in 2012. founded $iot... and it's bigger and the dream is better. clear communicators, great tech (selling to COO's not CIOs) that offers obvious payback for customer adoption. here's the "no": - purely a valuation equation - 13x for 30% is objectively expensive on a factor basis, the equivalent "going rate" in today's tape (it's june 2024 at nosebleed highs but struggling software bids) is without question below 10x and depending on the moat, the execution (did they beat/ miss/ how's guidance) a sliding scale between 5-10x. i'd argue this one ( NYSE:IOT ) would probably benchmark at 7-9x when thought of as a composite of any of it's related software peers. - so if round up, 9x is the going rate... and we're at 13x - it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand the incremental bid might not be there if we get a risk off event (e.g. it's not cheap, so PMs will be cutting exposure to this likely faster). - the stock at 16 bn valuation isn't "large". it sits in a lot of funds, ETFs etc, but it's not a mission critical own. if a PM doesn't own it and it rips, they don't lose vs the benchmark (which is how they all think) but if they do and it goes from 13x->9x... they underperform. there's career risk of getting too big too soon in this stock. so what to do? - i've come to the conclusion that i need to have some exposure to what i believe is a unique asset, best in class, great mgmt and the adoption curve/ growth picture is likely not reflecting the potential total addressable market in 5 yrs and this co's market share "today". i also don't expect the market (nor should it) to reflect this immediately beyond a takeout or something of this sort (which i'd say is a low/ or 20% probability). as mentioned above - if we sell off i'd like to add to it, and all else equal i think the risk in the short term is still more skewed negatively on valuation alone. but given the MT/LT upside i see, i believe it makes sense to hold it as a small position and monitor it closely. this is one that i'd love to turn into a core position. i don't like "not owning" stocks that i believe are one of a kind, expensive (but for a good reason) and where the expectations will be dramatically exceeded in the medium-long run. I'm at about a 2% position today. I'd love to get this to 5 or even 10% depending on what happens in the coming months ahead, especially if we can enter the low to mid 20s. at sub $20 i'm all in, but i don't expect that px outside of a black swan (and we gotta be ready to hit the bid hard HERE before other names). keep you guys posted as i make bigger moves here. be safe, manage risk accordingly/ stay solvent. V
NYSE:IOTLong
by VROCKSTAR
6/6/24 - $iot - like co. but stock just too expensive into print6/6/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:IOT - > 15x sales for 30% growth is simply too much in this tape, need closer to 12x which is substantially lower. look fam, these guys are perpetual beat/ raise types. so there won't be as much a surprise if this happens. it's the $crwd/ NYSE:NET of the IOT space (he11 they even own the ticker lol). so we need to own this in the MT/LT context and in whatever pullback (if/when/everrr??) we get from macro. i remain pretty cash heavy into friday/ next week b/c i have a few macro views that keep me more cautious awaiting fat pitches. i remain that NYSE:YOU remains the fattest pitch out there from a single name perspective. still like NASDAQ:NICE but it's in the penalty box from the a. recent NASDAQ:MSFT announcement going into their turf (tho i see that as validation and timing was probably bc they have an analyst day next week) as well as b. rough chart. back to IOT. i'm a fam. i like it all over. but the price is not right. so i'm watching/ waiting. if i miss it i miss it. but i can't afford to buy this and eat what i believe is much more downside risk at this pt in time than upside risk esp when comparing vs. other names i like w/ similar growth and cash gen potential.
NYSE:IOTShort
by VROCKSTAR
1
IOT May 2, 2024: A Bull Flag On April 22, 2024, I started to buy NYSE:IOT when it touched its MA-200 for the second time, forming a small base. You can see this trade in the related ideas section. I then closed the trade right below the MA-50. Now, for the last 5 days, after moving above its MA-50, NYSE:IOT has been forming a small bull flag pattern right above MA-50 A breakout above this pattern will be my new entry point. I like the stocks that can hold the key MA-50/150/200 while the main indices are still struggling, like now.
NYSE:IOTLong
by longsonvn
🌐🔍 Samsara (IOT) Analysis 📈💼Market Overview: Samsara NYSE:IOT is at the forefront of harnessing artificial intelligence (AI) to revolutionize its business operations. Through the utilization of cloud-based data analysis, Samsara efficiently processes vast amounts of sensor data, positioning itself to capitalize on the bullish trend in AI and offering promising opportunities for investors. Notable Success: One notable success story is Samsara's collaboration with JJX Logistics, resulting in a remarkable 17% reduction in fleet emissions. This partnership underscores Samsara's capability to deliver tangible benefits to prominent players in the logistics industry, showcasing the power of AI-driven solutions. Customer Base Expansion: Samsara's customer base is rapidly expanding, with a record number of customers generating over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR). The company recently secured its largest-ever deal with USIC, further solidifying its market presence. Additionally, Samsara's global footprint is expanding, with a significant portion of revenue derived from non-U.S. markets. Expansion Plans: To support its continued growth, Samsara plans to aggressively hire new talent, particularly in sales and marketing roles. The company is focusing its expansion efforts on regions such as Mexico, Canada, and Western Europe, aiming to further penetrate these markets. Investment Outlook: Bullish Stance: A bullish outlook on IOT is justified, especially above the $33.00-$34.00 threshold. Upside Target: With an upside target set at $51.00-$52.00, Samsara is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI-driven solutions across industries. 📈💼 Keep a close eye on Samsara's performance for investment opportunities! #IOT #AI #Samsara 🌐🔍
NYSE:IOTLong
by Richtv_official
Nothing Works, Either The Trader Works or Doesn't WorkThis post is a trade plan of IOT. Making a consistent trade plan helps to structure ourselves as traders. This give us some control in the ever-changing uncontrollable environment of markets. At first, it may seem tedious to do all this work, but that is only because our mind resists any kind of structure. The title of this post is saying to quit chasing after the perfect method and spend some time setting our own foundations. Implementing a focused consistent method is like a framework that you can learn from and even design new methods from within that framework. The key is the focus and consistently in what we do. In the video, I also talk about the components and process of a swing and how I use them to design my methods. Don't think in terms of technical analysis, think about it in terms of structuring simple buyers and sellers to see who is in control at any given time. The end of the video gets cut off a bit because i tend to babble too much and run out of time but there will be more as I go through the 30 trades exercise. Shane
NYSE:IOTLong
by ShaneBlankenship