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Invesco QQQ Trust Series IInvesco QQQ Trust Series IInvesco QQQ Trust Series I

Invesco QQQ Trust Series I

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QQQ trade ideas

QQQ Breakout vs BreakdownQQQ is flashing both a potential double top & a rising wedge, which are closely related bearish setups 1. Double Top (Top 1 & Top 2 around $583) Price hits the same high twice, fails to break through, then rolls over Not confirmed until QQQ closes below the “neckline” ($574–$575) If confirmed, projected drop is the height of the pattern (~24 pts) for a target of $560 2. Rising Wedge Higher highs + higher lows, but slope is narrowing QQQ’s recent grind into $583 fits this pattern since momentum is slowing as buyers lose control Rising wedges tend to break down ~70% of the time, especially near major resistance Break below the wedge lower bound ($574–$575) would align with the double top neckline break Bull vs Bear Scenarios If QQQ breaks above $586–$587 with volume, it invalidates both bearish patterns That would trigger continuation to $600 Close below $574–$575 neckline confirms the double top & wedge breakdown Right now QQQ is “coiled” in a rising wedge into resistance with a double top risk Bulls must clear $586+ to avoid the trap Bears gain control if $574 fails, unlocking gap-fill downside
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
2
QQQ Today’s Rally ≠ Bullish BreakoutToday’s rally into resistance doesn’t cancel the bearish structure - it just tested the ceiling again, like the ball bouncing off the ceiling one more time Price bounced, yes, but it stopped right at the descending trendline and supply zone Until QQQ clears $577–$580 on volume, this is just another lower high RSI still under 60 on the daily MACD still bearish crossover Bearish setups need bounces since sellers actually want rallies into supply Today’s move just brought price back to the spot where bears previously took control The deciding factor is whether tomorrow’s NFP release causes a breakout above $580 (bullish) or a breakdown below $562 (bearish) Descending triangles usually resolve downward (break of the flat base) A clean daily close <$562 would trigger measured move targets Until $562 breaks on volume, it’s still just compression Sometimes triangles fake down, trap shorts & rip higher (especially with macro catalysts like NFP) If $576 rejects, short to $562–$558 If $577–$580 breaks (bulls win), step aside or flip long toward $583+ The Fib retracements line up neatly, 50% = $571.39 61.8% = $568.59 (sits right inside that shaded demand area) 78.6% = $564.61 & 82.6% = $563.67 (exactly where buyers defended) 100% = $559.54 This layering creates a ladder of potential supports, but also a measured path for shorts The 1, 2 & 3 path into $559–$560 matches the 100% extension of the prior move This is where measured move & Fibonacci confluence meet Bears could take profit on the way down at $568.5 to $564.5 & $560 If $559 breaks with volume, extension opens toward $547 (200d SMA) which would be the larger “unwinding” target Invalidation is simple, if daily close >$577–$580 trendline While in-play, each Fib level gives you a chance to trail stops down Trendline + Supply Zone + Symmetry + Fibonacci = high-probability short setup Price = supply zone/descending trendline RSI = overbought on the 15m & below the midline slope & capped under 60 on the daily That’s a sign of weak momentum - each bounce fizzles out earlier The RSI trendline itself is descending, which mirrors price MACD = potentially topping on the 15m & still bearish crossover on the daily with it's histogram contracting slightly, so momentum is still in bear mode, with only a weak attempt at recovery Momentum: RSI + MACD both confirm sellers are in control of the bigger picture If NFP or another catalyst sends QQQ through $577–$580, watch for RSI breaking above 60 (momentum shift) & MACD histogram flipping positive with a bullish cross That would negate the bearish triangle & turn this into a breakout squeeze toward $583+
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
1
QQQ Grind-Up, Not Power-UpA gap occurs when the price opens significantly higher or lower than the prior close, leaving an empty space on the chart 1. Common Gap Small, often within a range Usually filled quickly (price comes back to close the gap) 2. Breakaway Gap Happens at the start of a new trend (up or down) Price usually does not fill quickly because it’s breaking out of a consolidation zone 3. Runaway / Continuation Gap Occurs in the middle of a strong trend Reinforces momentum, shows buyers/sellers rushing in 4. Exhaustion Gap Appears near the end of a move Often followed by reversal once the last buyers/sellers have entered Many gaps get “filled” (price trades back through the open-close range) Notice the jump candles where price leaps higher without overlapping prior highs Those are mini-breakaway gaps on smaller timeframes Larger daily gaps (from overnight futures) show up around major inflection points (~$540 or ~$500 in past months) often get retested Gap up into resistance - fade (short-term sell bias) Gap up out of consolidation - trend continuation Gap down into support - bounce potential Gap down breaking major support - momentum short A big distance between prior close and next open (think 2%+ in QQQ, which is large for an index ETF) suggests a strong imbalance between buyers/sellers (news, macro shock, earnings, Fed, etc) & are often trend-driving (market re-prices & continues in that direction - breakaway or exhaustion) Traders treat wide gaps as structural levels (price can revisit them weeks/months later) The big shaded area in April/May around $450–$500 are wide gaps that anchor market structure Small difference between close & next open (<1% in QQQ) are common gaps that occur more often & tend to get filled quickly (1–5 sessions) Momentum traders don’t put much weight on them since they’re more noise than regime change The small shaded areas around $560–$565 are narrow gaps which often act like magnets for price (easy “gap-fill” trades) 1. Wide Gaps are macro anchor levels They define “areas of importance” where institutions re-priced risk If price revisits then expect strong reaction (support or resistance) The wider gaps ($540s, $500s) are less likely to fill immediately, but if momentum cracks, they’re where the market would re-price 2. Narrow Gaps are short-term magnets They get filled often and quickly. More useful for tactical swing or intraday trading The narrow gap at $560–$565 suggests that if bulls fail at $580, this is the first “magnet” downside target QQQ grinding against ATHs while narrow gaps remain unfilled shows momentum strength Market is ignoring short-term inefficiencies because buyers are in control If $580–$581 rejection holds, sellers will target the nearest narrow gaps first ($560–$565) Only if weakness compounds do we start eyeing the wider gaps lower ($540s to the $500s) The curved trend line is the line in the sand Above = momentum grind Below = unwind toward gap fills This symmetry is powerful since markets often move in measured waves If history repeats, the next breakout could target another +35 pts from the last base ($560–$565) That projects into $595–$600, aligning with psychological round-number resistance Equal legs can also signal a completed measured move If momentum fails at $580–$581, this may be a double top, meaning trend is stretched In that case, downside would first target gap at $560–$565 & possibly the $532 wide gap if the trend breaks QQQ has rallied in 2 near-perfect measured moves of ~35 pts A third move could carry it to $595–$600, but failing here suggests exhaustion The trend + gaps below tell us exactly where risk opens if $580 rejection plays out 1. March–May (early rally leg) Strong expansion in volume on the breakout from the base Classic sign of institutional accumulation 2. June–July (second impulse leg) Price kept making higher highs, but volume gradually tapered off That’s a hallmark of momentum continuation without fresh conviction It doesn’t kill the trend, but it does mean rallies are carried more by buyers stepping in on dips; rather than, aggressive new buying 3. August–September (near ATHs) Volume remains muted during the grind into $580–$581 resistance Price has lifted, but not on strong participation Suggests buyers are cautious & sellers haven’t pressed yet either ( a “low energy” standoff ) R ising price + rising volume = strong trend Rising price + falling volume = weak trend (risk of stall) Falling price + rising volume = strong distribution Falling price + falling volume = normal pullback (trend intact) The grind into $580 looks more like rising price + flat/weak volume That tilts toward caution - bulls need a volume expansion to confirm breakout; otherwise, the market risks a “measured move exhaustion” & reverts to filling nearby gaps The first leg (April–May) with big green volume spikes shows strong conviction, but the second leg (June–July) shows price rose on lighter, declining volume, continuation, but less conviction, while the current leg (August–September) shows muted volume while pressing ATHs This is rising price + flat/weak volume, a classic “grind-up” pattern It works until it doesn’t - meaning breakouts need fresh volume expansion to hold QQQ’s last two impulse legs were ~35 pts - the current one is tracing the same path Volume, however, is lighter than on the first rally (momentum continuation, but less conviction) Breakout needs volume confirmation; otherwise, expect symmetry to mark exhaustion & pullback toward gaps RSI pushed into overbought (70+) multiple times RSI is trending upward again, but still below prior peaks (~65 vs 70+) Shows positive momentum, but not full-strength RSI holding above 50 is bullish, but failure to reach overbought on a breakout attempt would be a warning of exhaustion Volume is muted & RSI is rising, but not overbought yet It means the breakout is vulnerable without a volume surge & RSI follow-through RSI confirms buyers are pushing, but momentum is weaker than in the first impulse Breakout with RSI >70 is fuel to $595–$600; breakout with RSI divergence is likely a bull trap
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
2
QQQ Nearing wave (3) Termination at 589The short-term Elliott Wave analysis for the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) indicates it is approaching the completion of wave (3) from its April 2025 low. This wave (3) unfolds as a five-wave impulse structure. Wave 1 concluded at 467.83, followed by a wave 2 pullback to 427.93. Subsequently, wave 3 surged to 583.32, and wave 4 retraced to 558.84, as illustrated in the 45-minute chart. Currently, wave 5 is developing as a diagonal pattern. From the wave 4 low, wave ((i)) peaked at 578, with wave ((ii)) dipping to 559.53. Wave ((iii)) then climbed to 581.12, followed by a wave ((iv)) pullback to 571.53. As long as the ETF remains above 559.53, it is poised to extend higher in wave ((v)) of 5, which should also finalize wave (3) on a higher degree. The potential target for wave 5 lies between 589 and 598, calculated using the 123.6% to 161.8% inverse Fibonacci retracement of wave 4. This analysis suggests a bullish near-term outlook for QQQ, with the ETF likely to reach the projected range before completing wave (3). Traders should monitor the 559.53 support level to confirm the continuation of this upward move. The structure remains intact, supporting further gains in the short term.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Elliottwave-Forecast
QQQ Market Preview for Monday, September 8Price Action & Market Structure * QQQ is trading around 577.7, stabilizing after a sharp morning dip toward 569.0 and a bounce back. * Price is now consolidating between 576–578, showing indecision after recovering. * Structure remains bullish above 576 HVL support, but bears will try to push it back toward 572–569 if that zone breaks. Key Levels * Resistance (Upside Caps): * 578–580 → Immediate resistance / Gamma Wall. * 582–583 → Next resistance cluster. * Support (Downside Floors): * 576 HVL → Key pivot support. * 575–572 → Minor Put support zone. * 569.0 → Strong support (recent low). * 567 → Deeper Put Wall support. Options Sentiment (GEX & IV) * GEX: Bearishly skewed with Puts at 86.6%, suggesting hedging flows lean downside. * IVR: 14.3, moderate but not extreme, showing some expected volatility. * Gamma Walls: * 580 = Major Call Resistance. * 576 HVL = Key balance level. * 572 / 569 = Put-heavy support. Indicators * MACD (15m): Rolling over after bounce, showing fading short-term momentum. * Stoch RSI: Near oversold after pullback → could allow another push higher if 576 holds. Scenarios for Today Bullish Case (if 576 holds): * Hold above 576 HVL, reclaim 578–580. * Targets: 582–583 Gamma Wall zone. Bearish Case (if 576 breaks): * Drop back to 575–572 zone. * If weakness persists → test 569.0, deeper downside toward 567. Trading Thoughts * Longs: Favor dip entries at 576–575 with bounce confirmation, targeting 580–582. * Shorts: Fade rejection at 578–580, stops above 582.5. * Stops: * Longs → below 572.0. * Shorts → above 582.5. Summary QQQ sits at a key balance zone (576 HVL). If support holds, bulls can push back to 580–582, but heavy Put exposure plus resistance at 580 may cap upside. A break below 576 flips bias bearish, targeting 572–569. Options sentiment is defensive, suggesting upside will be a grind unless bulls take control early. ⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Always manage risk carefully.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
QQQ Bearish Reversal vs Bullish ContinuationQQQ broke out of a huge consolidation box (2024 into early 2025) That breakout projected a measured move of ~144 points (26%–36%), targeting $600–$630 Price indeed advanced strongly toward that zone before stalling 1. Bearish Case (head & shoulders or double top plays out) Breakdown below $568 with a target of $550, then maybe ~$537 (S2 pivot) if selling accelerates That’s about a 4%–5% correction, which is normal within an uptrend Double top is the cleaner, simpler read on this chart Head & shoulders is more complex and requires symmetry, which isn’t perfect here Both patterns target almost the same zone (~$550–$553), but the double top is easier to defend technically 2. Bullish Case (breakout resumes) Hold $568, reclaim $583–$585 & push into $600 (R2) Full measured move already points to $616–$633 longer term (R3–R4) Probabilities (with macro context) Continuation (push to $600–$616) @ 50% Correction ($568 break to $550–$537) @ 40% Extended chop ($568–$583 range) @ 10% The breakout from that massive 2024–2025 range still dominates the chart & trend is up until $568 fails The local Head & shoulders/double top is a warning sign, but not a confirmed reversal yet The market is essentially asking, do we consolidate near highs before another leg up, or do we shake out to $550 first?
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
9/4/25 - $qqq - How i'm positioned ep 39/4/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ How i'm positioned ep 3 - it's hard not to notice the q's and the spy's are about 50 bps away from a gap fill - while i'm a strong believer in the efficient market hypothesis (lol - i'm kidding), with googl's timely headline driving risk higher, today's whatever bid getting bid and "rate cuts" as a known known driving "narrative" bid... it all just feels so roll-over-y - lulu tn just basically confirms... besides having ms sweeney providing green dillys across basement dwelling "portfolios"... the consumer is, has been, and will be cooked like a road kill goose... and rate cuts won't help - even my NYSE:ONON feels like something i need to manage more lightly. - it. is. just. hard. to. own. anything. so i just took down risk a lot. i'm about 30% cash. tempted to get to 35 or 40% - still packing a solid 55% obtc, but well hedged w/ ibit puts (as i've described) - onon leaps at 5% at 3-1 (but honestly it's probably too big) - smlr to play the mstr headline, but it's honestly just an obtc/ mnav arb exercise w/ shorter term triggers and allows me to keep risk on exposure to btc while managing cash - nxt still a staple, but it's only 5% of the portfolio at 2-1 leverage (so 10% gross). feels like the only one i have confidence in, but it's performed lol. *don't cut winners, V* so i draw out some tea leaves green lines not as a prediction but as a thesis for what i think could be a path given liquidity constraints and how rate cuts won't immediately help this. the memes are bearish divergence all over. correlation 1. these things v likely to trigger leverage liquidations all over on the way down. i think funds might be (and should be) willing to short these too which could amplify the tape. this all just feels like we're in a seasonal wtf is going on. hard to own anything, even btc unhedged. 20% ytd and always above 0% still feels "good" but has been too much lift and the juice for the squeeze is like hitting a hawt gurl pilates after hour passion project establishment in LA... $20 bucks for the instagram photo. too many ppl posting PnL gainz is exhausting and a sign. all i'm saying is... make sure you know what you own. you are taking note of all the strangeness around. acknowledge liquidity conditions are not loose and rate cuts won't immediately help (rates are high! people are cooked! we need rates to BURN to really boost liquidity). finally. remember - bankers like to pay themselves one more time into YE. don't become their exit liquidity here and also their source of assets toward the dippity do dah. hand sitting feels smart. V
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by VROCKSTAR
QQQ Potential Bearish ResolutionOn the larger timeframe, the overall structure is a bear flag off the bigger down-move, much better than the earlier wedge attempt If QQQ were forming a wedge, price would be swinging wider with higher highs & lower lows, like a volatility burst after sideways action This leans bearish (because of the descending highs & flat-ish support), but the final signal will be whichever side breaks with volume The consolidation isn’t bullish (yet) because it’s drifting against the prior impulse down It's a bull flag nested inside a bigger bear flag It's a setup that needs confirmation, so bullish in theory, but the market still has to “vote” with price + volume If you view the current consolidation as a bull flag, you’re keying off the last impulse up ($559-$572) If you view it as a bear flag, you’re keying off the last dominant leg down ($583-$559) That last green bar is encouraging for bulls, but overall the consolidation volume looks like it’s contracting (fits both a flag & a bear retrace) The decisive clue will be whether volume expands on the breakout/breakdown Puts Watch for rejection at $571 with fading volume Calls Watch for strong volume push above $572, targeting ~$578 1. Volume Buyers came in strong on the last green bar, but for a sustained push through $571, should see rising buy volume 2. Structure If price fails at $571 & volume fades, it could roll over to test $565-$560 If buyers push cleanly above $572 with conviction, then the upper gap $574–$578 comes into play as the next target If sellers defend $571 again, odds favor a breakdown toward $560 If volume surges & $571 breaks, bulls have a clean magnet up to $578–$582
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
2
QQQ – Another Channel in Play: Breakout or Breakdown?QQQ has been respecting a series of parallel channels since March of 2023, forming a classic stair-step bullish pattern. Each channel ended with a break below the 10-week SMA. 🔸 Strong Trend Structure ▪ The chart shows five clear ascending parallel channels, each followed by a corrective/downward or sideways phase. ▪ This stair-step structure is characteristic of bullish price action, followed by consolidations, which often signals a healthy uptrend. 🔸 Channel Integrity ▪ Each channel respects its upper and lower bounds well, showing consistent buying pressure and trend continuation. ▪ There are multiple touch points for each upper and lower band, showing price support and resistance levels. ▪ The last channel is slightly narrower than the previous ones, which could imply momentum compression before either: • A breakout (continuation upward). • A breakdown (channel failure and pullback). 🔸 Risk Zone ▪ If QQQ breaks below the channel support and the 10-week moving average, the next likely support zone is around $540–$550. 🔸 Key Levels ▪ Upside Target: If QQQ breaks above the channel, we could see $600+ based on the measured move of prior legs. ▪ Watch volume for confirmation on any breakout attempt. ▪ Support Zone: If the channel fails, $540–$550 is the first major demand area aligned with prior consolidation. 🔸 Trade Ideas ▪ Bullish Bias: Breakout with strong volume, stop below channel support. ▪ Bearish Bias: Breakdown on confirmed move below channel and moving average. Note: This is not investment advice. Do your own research before making any trade decisions. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing. 💡 What do you think – continuation or correction? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by LevelUpTools
4
QQQ (5 September)The slope of the lines matters for pattern bias Sloping slightly down from $583 to $580 Holding flat around $563–$565 That shape is actually closer to a descending triangle Bearish continuation if support breaks But here’s the nuance, Descending triangles typically form after a downtrend, as continuation QQQ is in a strong uptrend, so even if the geometry looks bearish, context says bulls still have an edge In uptrends, these patterns can fail bearishly & instead resolve higher, especially if support keeps holding So the pattern could be read 2 ways, Descending triangle with support at $563 breaks = $545–$550 A coiling consolidation under resistance, which still may resolve upward given the broader trend The key difference will be whether $563 breaks down or holds Bearish breakdown (descending triangle plays out) at 35% because the macro trend is up since April & bulls usually defend support zones first, but if $563 breaks with volume, bears gain momentum quickly Bullish breakout (uptrend prevails) at 50% because of the broader uptrend + strong dip buying since April Each rejection at $580 has been shallow, showing underlying demand Price keeps oscillating between $563–$580 for another week at 15% in the short run, but if it drags on too long, the eventual breakout becomes stronger
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Potential Bearish ResolutionThe white volume line has been fading during the climb inside the wedge That’s typical of an exhaustion rally inside an ascending broadening wedge where price pushes higher on weaker participation The last push up showed a small bounce in volume, but not a breakout-level surge For a wedge, this usually suggests the rally is running out of gas rather than building strength Broadening wedges often end with a volume pickup on the breakdown, not on the way up If we see that white line spike while price loses the wedge bottom, that would be a strong bearish confirmation Conversely, if volume expands while breaking above $573–$574, it would invalidate the bearish read & confirm strength instead So, right now volume is consistent with a potential bearish resolution
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
1
$BTC 4-Year Cycle Is NOT Dead According to $QQQ $SPXIt’s really weird cause everyone keeps telling me the ₿itcoin 4-year cycle is dead yet Nasdaq and S&P 500 follow nearly the exact same pattern with cycle lows 🤓 It’s almost as-if monetary and fiscal policy creates this boom and bust cycle every 4-years 🤔 Question for the “this time is different people”…. Will NASDAQ:QQQ and SP:SPX not have similar bear markets as we’ve seen in the past along with CRYPTOCAP:BTC ?
NASDAQ:QQQ
by jonnieking
QQQ Sellers In Panic! BUY! My dear friends, QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 570.30 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 572.83 Recommended Stop Loss - 568.90 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AnabelSignals
3
QQQ Battlefield Map1. Immediate Support Holds (~55%) QQQ consolidates above current levels A push above $583.32 (recent high) would confirm bullish continuation $589–$590 or retest of envelope top/channel resistance $600 is a round-number magnet & could trigger breakout momentum Extension to $607–$610, based on measured move from the last swing Biggest shelf (high-volume node) is $565–$575 This matches where QQQ has been consolidating with lots of buyers & sellers 2. Break Below $560s (~35%) Signals loss of short-term momentum Eyes turn toward $540 (23.6% Fib) - first real downside test Major support in the area of $529–$540 100d SMA ($529) + Fib ($540) is a critical test Bounces & dip-buyers defend trend Failure & trend weakens significantly Secondary shelf at $520–$530 perfectly lines up with Fib 38.2% ($514) & 100d SMA Low-volume gap at $545–$555 If QQQ breaks under $565, it can slide fast into this pocket before stabilizing at $540/$530 3. Deeper Downside (~10% - unless macro shock) $493 (50% Fib) is midpoint retrace, strong demand area (if market turns risk-off, this is the magnet ) $472 (61.8% Fib) is the golden ratio area of support If this breaks, trend structure flips bearish with risk toward $440–$433
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal