META - At SupportWell, theoretically META is just getting to the support cluster and competing a Crab Pattern. It may be respected and push the price higher, but if... If the markets forget of the poor results and of the fear that AI Rally is actually no more than another bubble... The best way to wait a bit and just see
Just my humble opinion
Trade ideas
Meta - The major triangle rejection!💡Meta ( NASDAQ:META ) will reverse soon:
🔎Analysis summary:
Just a couple of months ago we witnessed a textbook all time high break and retest on Meta. This retest was followed by a major rejection higher and the second retest of the triangle resistance trendline. Therefore, Meta is very likely to create another rejection.
📝Levels to watch:
$750 and $500
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
How International Payment Gateways Work1. What is an International Payment Gateway?
An international payment gateway is an online service that authorizes and processes payments between a buyer and a seller across different countries. It acts as a digital intermediary that connects the merchant’s website to the acquiring bank (merchant’s bank) and issuing bank (customer’s bank).
For instance, when a customer in India buys a product from a U.S.-based e-commerce store, the payment gateway securely transmits the payment data, verifies it, converts the currency if needed, and ensures the funds are transferred to the merchant after validation.
In simple terms, the gateway ensures that cross-border payments are fast, safe, and compliant with global financial regulations.
2. The Role of a Payment Gateway
The primary role of an international payment gateway is to:
Authorize transactions between buyers and sellers.
Encrypt sensitive financial data to prevent fraud.
Convert currencies based on real-time exchange rates.
Integrate with multiple payment methods like credit/debit cards, digital wallets, and bank transfers.
Comply with regional financial laws such as PCI DSS (Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard) and anti-money laundering (AML) regulations.
3. How the Process Works – Step-by-Step
The process behind international payment gateways might seem complex, but it typically follows these major steps:
Step 1: Customer Initiates Payment
A buyer chooses a product or service on an online platform and proceeds to checkout. At this point, they select a payment method — credit/debit card, PayPal, or other options supported by the merchant’s gateway.
Step 2: Encryption and Data Transmission
When the buyer submits payment information, the gateway encrypts sensitive details (like card numbers and CVV codes) using SSL (Secure Socket Layer) or TLS (Transport Layer Security) technology. This ensures that data remains confidential during transmission.
Step 3: Authorization Request
The gateway sends the encrypted data to the acquiring bank (the merchant’s bank), which then forwards it to the card network (Visa, Mastercard, etc.) and ultimately to the issuing bank (the customer’s bank).
Step 4: Verification and Approval
The issuing bank checks whether the customer has sufficient balance and whether the transaction looks legitimate. Based on this assessment, the bank either approves or declines the transaction.
Step 5: Authorization Response
The approval or decline message is sent back through the same route — from the issuing bank to the card network, then to the acquiring bank, and finally to the payment gateway, which updates the merchant’s website.
Step 6: Settlement
If approved, the funds are debited from the customer’s account and transferred to the merchant’s account (after deducting applicable fees). Currency conversion happens here if it’s an international transaction.
Step 7: Confirmation
The customer receives a confirmation message that the payment has been successful, and the merchant can now proceed to deliver the goods or services.
This entire process usually happens within a few seconds — showcasing how efficient modern financial technology has become.
4. Key Technologies Behind Payment Gateways
International payment gateways rely on several core technologies to ensure seamless operations:
Encryption: Protects sensitive payment data from hackers.
Tokenization: Converts card details into a unique token that can be reused safely without storing real card data.
Fraud Detection Systems: Uses AI and machine learning algorithms to identify suspicious transactions.
3D Secure Authentication: Adds an extra layer of protection for online card payments (e.g., “Verified by Visa” or “Mastercard SecureCode”).
APIs (Application Programming Interfaces): Allow integration between merchant websites and payment processors.
Blockchain (Emerging Trend): Some gateways use blockchain for transparent and faster cross-border settlements.
5. Currency Conversion and Exchange Rates
One of the biggest challenges in international payments is currency conversion. Payment gateways automatically convert the transaction amount from the customer’s currency to the merchant’s preferred currency using real-time foreign exchange rates.
However, they also charge a foreign transaction fee or FX markup, which varies depending on the gateway provider and bank partnerships.
For example:
If a customer in Europe buys a $100 item from a U.S. store, the payment gateway converts euros to dollars based on the current exchange rate, then processes the transaction accordingly.
6. Security and Compliance
Security is the cornerstone of international payment gateways. Since they handle sensitive financial data, they must comply with strict global standards:
PCI DSS Compliance: Mandates secure storage and transmission of card data.
KYC (Know Your Customer): Ensures that businesses and users are verified to prevent fraud.
AML (Anti-Money Laundering) Regulations: Prevents illicit financial activities.
GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation): Protects data privacy for European users.
Additionally, many gateways employ multi-factor authentication (MFA) and real-time fraud monitoring systems to safeguard users.
7. Examples of International Payment Gateways
Some leading international payment gateways include:
PayPal: One of the oldest and most trusted gateways supporting 200+ countries.
Stripe: Popular among developers for its flexible APIs and multi-currency support.
Razorpay & PayU (India): Offer international transaction capabilities with local compliance.
2Checkout (now Verifone): Handles global payments with multiple currency options.
Amazon Pay & Apple Pay: Focus on convenience and mobile payment integration.
Each gateway differs in transaction fees, integration options, and supported currencies.
8. Challenges in International Payments
Despite technological advances, international payment gateways face several challenges:
Currency Fluctuations: Exchange rate volatility affects transaction costs.
Regulatory Barriers: Each country has unique financial laws.
High Transaction Fees: Cross-border payments can be expensive for small businesses.
Payment Fraud and Chargebacks: Increased risk due to international nature of transactions.
Integration Complexity: Businesses must ensure compatibility with multiple payment systems.
9. The Future of International Payment Gateways
The future of global payment gateways is being shaped by innovation and digital transformation. Some emerging trends include:
Blockchain-based Payments: Faster and cheaper cross-border transactions.
AI-Powered Fraud Detection: Real-time identification of anomalies.
CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies): Government-backed digital currencies will integrate into gateways.
Embedded Finance: Payment solutions built directly into apps and online stores.
Seamless Multi-Currency Wallets: Allowing users to hold, convert, and pay in different currencies easily.
10. Conclusion
International payment gateways are the backbone of global digital commerce. They simplify complex financial processes, connect different banking systems, and ensure that transactions happen securely and efficiently across borders. From a customer’s click on “Pay Now” to the merchant receiving funds, gateways manage countless tasks — encryption, verification, conversion, and compliance — in just seconds.
As e-commerce continues to expand globally, these gateways will become even more critical, evolving with technology and regulation to create a truly borderless financial ecosystem where anyone, anywhere, can transact confidently.
META Cycle Analysis – Possible Macro Bottom FormingMETA just hit a major technical confluence zone around $620–625, aligning with previous cycle lows and a deeply oversold RSI (~24).
Every prior RSI flush at this level (2023, early 2024) has marked the start of a new multi-month leg higher.
The current structure mirrors META’s past rhythm — roughly 8–9-month accumulation–expansion cycles.
If this pattern holds, we could be looking at the early phase of the next uptrend targeting the $780–840 zone by mid-2026.
Volume shows heavy post-earnings capitulation, but selling pressure is easing, and buyers are starting to defend support.
Short-term confirmation would come with a close above $650–670, flipping the short-term trend.
📊 Outlook:
Support: $620
Resistance: $670 / $706 / $788
RSI: Oversold, early reversal signals forming
Bias: Neutral → Bullish if $670 reclaims
Cycles, symmetry, and RSI all suggest META might be setting up for its next expansion phase.
META watch $634-641: Semi-Major Support may hold Earnings DUMP META apparently disappointed with its last earnings report.
Approaching a "Semi-Major" support zone at $634.32-641.88
Look for a clean bounce or look lower like $600 for next try.
.
This is a followup to my TOP CALL given by Dual Goldens:
Hit BOOST and FOLLOW for more such PRECISE and TIMELY charts.
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META Great opportunity for longs, target to 1000
For Swing or Options Tradersw w/ at least 12 month expiration:
Surprise bear bar with follow-up, expect a few legs lower, expect a typical bottom wedge near left shoulder
Great consolidation zone ~ 600, also Big Round Number = magnet
Near 100 weekly EMA, needs to re-test that
Near Trendline of Bull Channel
Target: Long-term Measured move from 600 to 800 leads to 1000
META Buy Opportunity – KZDZ ModelMETA Game Plan – KZDZ Model
📊 Market Sentiment
On 29/10, the FED lowered rates by 25BPS, as expected. However, Powell’s remarks added uncertainty around further cuts in December, stating that future decisions will be data-dependent.
One FED member dissented, preferring no cut this cycle — a notable shift from September’s unanimous decision.
Following this, rate-cut expectations dropped from 95% to 68%, sparking short-term bearish sentiment as traders took profits and hedged exposure.
Despite this volatility, the mid-to-long term outlook remains bullish given the broader liquidity cycle and easing policy stance.
📈 Fundamental
META earnings missed expectations, triggering a sharp sell-off. While short-term sentiment is bearish, the long-term outlook remains supported by ongoing AI development initiatives.
📈 Technical Analysis
1-Hit oversold RSI on the daily timeframe.
2-Retraced to the 0.5 Fibonacci equilibrium zone (≈ $640).
3-Tested a major HTF Key Zone around $625, signaling potential accumulation.
📘 Model in Use – Key Zone with Discount Zone (KZDZ Model)
The KZDZ Model identifies areas where discounted Fibonacci levels align with strong HTF liquidity zones, offering high-probability reversal opportunities.
1️⃣ Identify HTF Key Zone
2️⃣ Align with Discount Zone (0.5–0.75 range)
3️⃣ Look for confirmation structure on LTF
4️⃣ Execute and manage risk accordingly
📌 Game Plan
Scenario 1 (Black Path): Watch for price to hit $625 and close above $640 (daily). Upon confirmation, plan to buy C640 options targeting $680–$700.
Scenario 2 (Red Path): If price fails to reclaim $640, monitor for a deeper move to $560, then look for weekly rejection above that zone. Entry via C560 options, targeting $620–$700.
🎯 Setup Trigger
Scenario 1 → Daily close above $640 after retesting $625.
Scenario 2 → Weekly close above $560 zone.
📋 Trade Management
Scenario 1: Buy C640 Calls → take profits at $680–$700.
Scenario 2: Buy C560 Calls → partial profits $620–$640, rest at $680–$700.
Move stop to breakeven after first target is hit.
💬If this META breakdown supports your outlook, like, comment, and follow.
For deeper sentiment and strategy updates, subscribe to my Substack free access available.
⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
The META drop explainedSo what happend to META last week:
I see a lot of you wondering what happend to the stock and what caused the drop.
The answer is simple. The EPS was not so good.
We can see on the chart that the EPS is only 1.05 and that they expected 6.723 . That is a chance of -84.38%.
So for that big of a chance this is a small drop.
The Reason:
So the reason that this happend is because they need to pay some extra in taxes.
The tax that they need to pay is around 15,9 billion dollar.
This is because Trump has passed some tax laws that state that big companies need to pay taxes on profits that they have made outside of the US.
This is only a one time tax that they need to pay and the reason that they are doing this is because they want to avoid companies to do tax evation and book more profits outside of the US.
What we also do need to know is that made up profits outside of the US are being re-evaluated and that they need to pay tax on a portion of that profit because the see a portion of it as domestic assets.
What we need to keep in mind:
What we need to keep in mind here is that the EPS only dropped because of this tax and that there are people saying that the EPS without this tax would have been around 7.25 . So a good boost from what the analysist are expecting of META.
So you could see this as a big discount you get on the stock price.
Types of Arbitrage Strategies in Global ExchangesIntroduction
In global financial markets, arbitrage represents the pursuit of risk-free or low-risk profits by exploiting price discrepancies between different markets, instruments, or timeframes. Traders, institutions, and algorithmic systems constantly monitor global exchanges for such inefficiencies. While arbitrage opportunities may exist only for a fraction of a second, the principle behind them remains timeless — buy low, sell high, but simultaneously and strategically.
Arbitrage is vital for ensuring market efficiency, liquidity, and fair pricing across borders. As global trading platforms become more interconnected, arbitrage has evolved from simple manual trades to complex algorithmic and statistical models involving multiple asset classes, currencies, and derivatives.
This article explores the major types of arbitrage strategies practiced in global exchanges, their mechanisms, challenges, and significance in modern markets.
1. Pure or Spatial Arbitrage
Pure arbitrage, also known as spatial arbitrage, is the most fundamental form. It occurs when an asset trades at different prices in two or more markets at the same time. The trader buys the asset from the cheaper market and sells it in the more expensive one.
Example:
If gold futures are trading at $2,000 per ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and at $2,010 on the London Metal Exchange (LME), an arbitrageur can buy gold on NYMEX and sell simultaneously on LME to earn a $10 per ounce profit, excluding transaction costs.
Markets Where It Occurs:
Equities: Dual-listed stocks (e.g., Royal Dutch Shell listed in London and Amsterdam).
Commodities: Gold, oil, or agricultural commodities traded on multiple exchanges.
Currencies: Foreign exchange markets across different trading hubs like London, New York, and Tokyo.
Significance:
Pure arbitrage enforces price parity across exchanges and enhances market integration.
2. Statistical Arbitrage
Statistical arbitrage (StatArb) uses quantitative models and algorithms to identify pricing inefficiencies between related securities. Rather than relying on clear price differences, it depends on statistical correlations and mean-reversion principles.
Key Features:
Uses mathematical models, machine learning, and historical data.
Exploits temporary mispricings in correlated assets.
Positions are typically short-term and high-frequency.
Example:
If two historically correlated stocks like Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP) diverge abnormally in price, a trader may go long on the undervalued one and short on the overvalued one, expecting convergence.
Used By:
Hedge funds (like Renaissance Technologies)
Quantitative trading firms
High-frequency traders
Benefits:
Works even in balanced markets (without visible price gaps)
High automation potential
Risks:
Model inaccuracy
Breakdown of historical correlations during volatile periods
3. Triangular Arbitrage (Currency Arbitrage)
Triangular arbitrage occurs in the foreign exchange (forex) markets when discrepancies arise between three related currency pairs.
Mechanism:
Traders exploit the mispricing among three currencies by converting them sequentially to lock in a profit, ensuring that the cross-exchange rates are consistent.
Example:
Assume:
EUR/USD = 1.2000
USD/GBP = 0.8000
EUR/GBP = 0.9600
The implied EUR/GBP rate should be (1.2000 × 0.8000 = 0.9600).
If the actual EUR/GBP rate is 0.9650, the trader can buy the undervalued currency and sell the overvalued combination, earning a small profit per cycle.
Significance:
Triangular arbitrage keeps exchange rates aligned across currency pairs in global forex markets. It also showcases the law of one price, ensuring consistent valuation across all trading hubs.
4. Index Arbitrage
Index arbitrage involves exploiting price discrepancies between a stock index and its constituent stocks or between the index futures and spot index.
Example:
If the S&P 500 futures are trading above the theoretical value implied by the underlying cash index, a trader can:
Sell futures
Buy all component stocks of the index
As the prices converge, the arbitrageur closes the positions, realizing a profit.
Technology Used:
Algorithmic trading platforms capable of executing thousands of trades within milliseconds to manage all underlying index components simultaneously.
Benefits:
Helps maintain equilibrium between the derivative and spot markets
Improves efficiency in index pricing
Challenges:
Requires high capital
Needs automated execution and low latency infrastructure
5. Merger or Risk Arbitrage
Merger arbitrage, also known as risk arbitrage, focuses on the price difference between the current market price of a company being acquired and the proposed acquisition price.
Mechanism:
When Company A announces plans to acquire Company B for $50 per share, but Company B’s stock trades at $47, the $3 difference reflects deal risk.
Arbitrageurs buy Company B’s shares expecting the deal to close and pocket the $3 gain when it does.
Types of Deals:
Cash mergers – Fixed payout, lower risk
Stock-for-stock mergers – Complex due to share exchange ratios and market volatility
Risks:
Deal may fail due to regulatory issues or financing problems
Delays can reduce annualized returns
Example:
During Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard, risk arbitrage funds took long positions in Activision anticipating the regulatory approval would lead to price convergence with the offer.
6. Convertible Bond Arbitrage
Convertible bond arbitrage exploits mispricing between a company’s convertible bonds and its underlying stock.
Mechanism:
A convertible bond can be exchanged for equity at a preset conversion rate.
If the bond is undervalued relative to the stock, traders go long the bond and short the stock.
The strategy profits from bond yield and volatility adjustments, regardless of stock direction.
Used By:
Hedge funds specializing in credit and volatility markets.
Risks:
Credit risk of issuer
Interest rate changes
Liquidity risk in bond markets
Significance:
Balances pricing between equity and fixed-income instruments of the same issuer, enhancing cross-asset efficiency.
7. Cross-Border Arbitrage
Cross-border arbitrage involves exploiting price differences for the same asset or similar assets across different countries’ exchanges.
Example:
A stock listed in both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) may trade at slightly different prices due to exchange rate fluctuations or trading hour differences. Traders use ADR (American Depositary Receipts) and GDR (Global Depositary Receipts) to execute such arbitrage.
Factors Affecting Prices:
Exchange rates
Tax policies
Market liquidity
Capital controls
Importance:
Encourages global price synchronization and helps maintain efficient capital allocation across regions.
8. ETF Arbitrage
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) track indices or baskets of assets. When an ETF’s market price deviates from its Net Asset Value (NAV), arbitrage opportunities arise.
Mechanism:
If ETF price > NAV → Sell ETF, buy underlying assets.
If ETF price < NAV → Buy ETF, sell underlying assets.
Example:
If the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) trades at $501 while the index value is equivalent to $500, an arbitrageur sells SPY and buys the basket of S&P 500 stocks.
Who Performs It:
Authorized Participants (APs) such as large financial institutions that can create or redeem ETF shares in bulk.
Outcome:
Maintains price parity between ETFs and their underlying assets, ensuring accurate tracking performance.
9. Futures Arbitrage (Cash and Carry)
Cash and carry arbitrage involves exploiting differences between the spot price of an asset and its futures price.
Mechanism:
When futures are overpriced relative to spot, traders short futures and buy spot.
When futures are underpriced, they buy futures and short spot.
Example:
If crude oil trades at $80 (spot) and the 3-month futures are at $85, a trader can buy oil at $80, store it, and sell the futures at $85, locking in a risk-free return (adjusted for carrying costs).
Applications:
Common in commodities, currencies, and equity indices.
Impact:
Ensures futures contracts remain aligned with their underlying assets, enforcing cost-of-carry relationships.
10. Options Arbitrage
Options offer several arbitrage setups based on pricing inconsistencies between options and their underlying assets.
Common Strategies:
Put-Call Parity Arbitrage: Exploits violations of the relationship between call, put, and underlying asset prices.
Box Spread Arbitrage: Combines options to lock in a risk-free payoff.
Reverse Conversion Arbitrage: Uses options and underlying stock to capture overpricing in call or put options.
Example:
If put-call parity is violated (Call – Put ≠ Stock Price – Present Value of Strike), arbitrageurs construct synthetic positions to earn the difference.
Benefit:
Enhances derivative market efficiency and volatility pricing accuracy.
11. Cross-Asset Arbitrage
Cross-asset arbitrage identifies pricing inefficiencies across different asset classes such as equities, bonds, commodities, and derivatives.
Example:
When the movement in the oil market affects airline stock prices disproportionately, arbitrageurs may exploit the imbalance using statistical models.
Importance:
Promotes multi-market integration
Encourages price alignment across sectors
Helps in portfolio hedging and diversification
12. High-Frequency and Algorithmic Arbitrage
Modern arbitrage strategies rely heavily on high-frequency trading (HFT) and algorithmic systems capable of executing trades in microseconds.
Techniques Include:
Latency arbitrage (profiting from speed differences between exchanges)
Quote stuffing and order book imbalances
Cross-exchange liquidity scanning
Infrastructure Needs:
Co-location servers near exchange data centers
Low-latency networks
Advanced AI models for predictive execution
Impact:
Enhances liquidity and efficiency
Reduces price gaps
But also raises concerns about market fairness and flash crashes
Conclusion
Arbitrage is the heartbeat of global financial efficiency. From simple cross-market trades to complex algorithmic models, each type of arbitrage contributes to price uniformity, market liquidity, and systemic stability. While profit margins per trade are razor-thin, large-scale institutional participation and automation make it an essential function in maintaining balance across global exchanges.
However, with evolving technology, regulation, and competition, arbitrage has transitioned from being a manual opportunity to a data-driven discipline. Traders who understand not only the price discrepancies but also the structure of global markets, latency, and cross-asset relationships hold the edge in today’s interconnected world.
In essence, arbitrage ensures that no asset remains mispriced for long — making global markets fairer, more integrated, and efficient for all participants.
Meta long Meta dumped on earnings because of a one time tax event. I have long been following this company and have missed obvious setups multiple times. We are right at the .5 fib. This megaphone was drawn on the monthly chart but I zoomed in to show the swing trade setup I am looking at.
We note a basing OBV (momentum) and a nice reset of volatility. My plan would be to enter around here, average down if we approach 600$ and swing up to the green price target.
$FB: Wave 2 in progressNASDAQ:META completed a 5-wave sequence in Feb. 2025. From April 2025 low, NASDAQ:META started a new 5-wave sequence. Wave 1 is complete and we've been in Wave 2 since the ATH.
I believe NASDAQ:META is presently in the last leg of Wave 2 -- Wave c. It's hard to tell when this C wave will complete. Perhaps there will be a positive divergence when Wave 2 completes.
META — Possible Macro Peak, Bearish Year AheadMeta may have completed its long-term C wave after reaching new all-time highs at the top of the macro channel.
The structure now shows emerging bearish sequences on lower timeframes , hinting that the next yearly cycle could be corrective or bearish rather than impulsive.
While the theoretical WCL sits far below (around 350–400), such a deep retracement would imply a 50% drop — an extreme but technical possibility.
A more realistic path could be a 20–30% macro correction as the market digests Meta’s extended rally and rebalances valuation.
Key Points:
Macro C wave completed at the upper channel boundary.
Lower timeframe sequences turning bearish.
WCL remains the ultimate downside target, though not the base case.
Expect a potentially bearish or corrective year ahead for Meta, within the long-term bullish structure.
Invalidation:
If price reclaims the 780–800 zone and breaks above the red B high, bearish structure fails.
META | Descending Channel & 0.618 Fib SupportMETA is trading inside a descending channel after breaking its main uptrend. Price recently rejected the upper boundary with strong sell volume and a bearish MACD crossover, showing short-term weakness.
The 0.5 Fibonacci level is acting as current support — if price breaks below this, expect a retrace toward the 0.618 Fib zone ($400–$405) which aligns with key channel support. Holding this level could trigger a rebound toward $450–$470, but a close below $400 opens the door to $380–$360.
RSI is near oversold, suggesting a potential bounce if the 0.618 level holds. Medium-term correction within a larger bullish structure.
META Bearish: Channel Breakdown Toward 630META on 1D is digesting a sharp pullback from the ~$790 high into a descending channel. Price found initial demand near $666 but remains below the MA20 and mid-band, keeping short-term momentum bearish while the higher-timeframe uptrend stays intact. Until the upper channel gives way, rallies into the MA20/upper boundary are likely to meet supply.
Primary path: I’m respecting the channel. A daily close below $660 would confirm continuation, opening $630 as the first objective; if pressure accelerates, $600 sits next. The setup is cleaner while price stays capped beneath $685 (short invalidation). Failure to reclaim the MA20 keeps the lower band “walk” in play and favors selling into strength.
Alternative: If buyers punch through the upper channel and reclaim the MA20 with a decisive daily close above ~$720, the short-term tone flips. That unlocks a squeeze toward ~$740 and, if momentum persists, a run back into the prior supply near ~$790. For dip buyers, the $666 area is the near-term demand to defend; lose it on a close and the bearish case resumes.
Levels to watch: Demand near $666; resistance at ~$720 (upper channel/MA20) and ~$790 (ATH). Triggers: bear—daily close < $660 to target $630/$600; bull—daily close > $720 to target $740/$790. Invalidation for shorts: daily close > $685.
This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations.
Meta Platforms (META) shares plunge 11%Meta Platforms (META) shares plunge 11%
On Wednesday, Meta Platforms (META) released its quarterly report, which included several positive highlights:
→ revenue rose to $51.2 billion (forecast: $49.5 billion);
→ the size of the daily active audience increased to 3.54 billion people.
However, META’s share price fell below the psychological threshold of $700, hitting its lowest level in almost five months. This drop was triggered by two unpleasant surprises revealed in the report.
Tax write-offs
According to media reports, due to new US tax legislation (referred to as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”), the company recorded a one-off income tax expense of $15.93 billion.
Because of this write-off, earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.05 (analysts had expected $6.72). However, the company clarified that excluding this one-off item, EPS would have been $7.25, which would have been a very strong result.
AI-related expenses
Another factor that may have alarmed shareholders is that Mark Zuckerberg’s company raised its capital expenditure forecast for 2025 to $70–72 billion. These funds will go towards building data centres and purchasing AI chips.
In essence, Meta Platforms is striving to take a leading position in the AI space and is prepared to spend tens of billions to achieve that goal. For shareholders, this means that even as revenue grows, net profit is being eroded by massive spending—and it remains unclear when these costs will pay off.
Technical analysis of META’s chart
When analysing META’s chart in mid-August, we:
→ drew an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ pointed out signs of weakness (including a bearish gap¹, shown in orange);
→ suggested that the balance could shift in favour of the bears, which might trigger a noticeable correction in META’s share price.
This scenario played out as a decline from A → B. After rebounding from the key line of the blue channel, the price rose towards the bearish gap¹, forming a lower high C. The downward movement then continued, and the channel was extended with a lower low D.
The large bearish gap² that formed this week could also act as resistance (as in the previous case), and this effect is likely to be more pronounced near the $700 psychological level.
Overall, the picture looks extremely negative:
→ the sequence of lower highs and lows A → D is likely to continue with a new lower low F;
→ the price remains in the lower half of the red channel, drawn along this sequence.
From a bullish perspective:
→ $650 serves as a psychological support level;
→ if the rise from the April low to peak A is viewed as an impulse, then the decline A → F is approaching $640, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Given the above, it is reasonable to assume that the market will now reassess the new factors revealed in the report. From a charting standpoint, this could mean a period of consolidation, with META’s share price fluctuating between the red median line and the current support level of $650.
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Meta Stock Falls Below $700 After Earnings ReportMeta’s stock dropped more than 10.5% during the last trading session, shortly after the company released its third-quarter results. Selling pressure has become dominant despite Meta reporting $51.24 billion in revenue, surpassing expectations of $49.40 billion, and earnings per share of $7.25, beating forecasts of $6.69.
However, it was revealed that the company incurred an extraordinary charge of approximately $16 billion, linked to a new U.S. tax regulation, which — if it hadn’t occurred — would have allowed for much higher reported earnings. This factor, combined with the massive spending on its artificial intelligence initiatives, could begin to erode profit margins in the coming months. As a result, a persistent sense of investor distrust has emerged, which could continue to place downward pressure on the stock in the near term.
Uptrend Breaks
Following the earnings release, the stock broke below the upward trendline that had been in place since April of this year, potentially marking a structural shift on the chart, with a bearish bias now becoming dominant after the sharp decline.
As long as the price remains below the 200-period moving average, selling pressure could stabilize and even lead to the formation of a new short-term downtrend.
RSI
The RSI line has started to show a steady downward slope, indicating that selling momentum has taken control over the past 14 sessions. However, the indicator is quickly approaching the oversold zone near the 30 level, suggesting a potential market imbalance that could open the door for short-term bullish corrections.
MACD
The MACD histogram has flattened around the zero line, signaling indecision in momentum based on the moving averages. If this condition persists, the stock could enter a sideways consolidation phase in the coming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
$740 – Resistance: This level aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. A move back toward this zone could reactivate the previous uptrend, which has now taken a back seat following the sell-off.
$689 – Current Barrier: This retracement zone coincides with the 200-period moving average and could serve as a neutral area, potentially triggering short-term corrections. However, as long as the price remains below this level, a sustained bearish bias may continue in the coming sessions.
$631 – Key Support: This level represents an area of indecision not seen since May of this year. A break below it could activate a fresh downtrend, likely to persist over the medium term.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Meta Platforms: The Third Touch of DestinyMeta’s decade-long impulse from $18 to $750 may be nearing completion.
The price now tests the same long-term trendline that defined every major swing since 2013 — a point where geometry and rhythm converge once again.
When a structure this large approaches its terminal phase, it rarely ends quietly. A 38–50 % correction from the eventual Wave 5 high would be a natural reset before the next multi-year cycle begins.
At this stage, there’s little reward in chasing momentum. Sometimes, the smarter move is to step aside and let the market cool before the next impulse is born.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
META’s Hidden Fibonacci Path to 4000+ — Don’t Miss Wave 3🚀 META Long-Term Elliott Wave + Smart Money Macro Outlook
🌊 Elliott Wave Structure (662→955→4000+)
META appears to be progressing through a major impulsive 5-wave supercycle on the weekly timeframe:
Wave 1: The initial breakout from accumulation (2015–2021), fueled by growth in advertising dominance and metaverse expansion narratives.
Wave 2: Deep corrective W–X–Y structure into the 2022 low around $90 — a classic multi-year liquidity sweep and re-accumulation phase.
Wave 3 (in progress): This is typically the strongest and most extended wave , with Fibonacci projections aligning near the 2.618 extension ≈ $4,160 , targeting 2028–2029 based on current momentum.
Wave 4: Expected to form a macro re-distribution or range between ~$900–$1,000 before the final parabolic Wave 5, likely extending toward $10K+ .
💡 Wave Confluence:
1.618 Fib extension of Wave 1 → Wave 3 aligns around $955 , acting as the first major resistance (and your current high zone).
2.618 Fib extension → next macro target $4,160 , confirming bullish impulsive momentum.
🧠 Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
The 2022–2023 bottom represents a “Displacement + Re-accumulation” phase , with institutions absorbing liquidity beneath previous demand zones.
Current price action (mid-2025) shows a premium range reaction , where smart money is likely taking partial profits before the next accumulation leg.
Expect a retracement into the 0.382–0.5 Fib zone ($420–$500) to rebalance inefficiencies before continuation toward macro Wave 3 targets.
Key Reaccumulation Zone: $420–$500 — watch for BOS (Break of Structure) confirmation and liquidity sweeps below equal lows.
🔍 Fibonacci Alignment
0.382 retrace marks ideal Wave 4 re-entry.
1.618 & 2.618 extensions align perfectly with the Wave 3 and 5 confluences — textbook impulsive expansion.
Each extension zone has been confirmed with prior liquidity sweeps and displacement candles, increasing Fibonacci reliability 📈.
📊 Market Structure & Price Action
META maintains a strong bullish market structure of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) since 2023.
The recent 9% correction (-$69) is likely a short-term liquidity grab — not structural weakness.
As long as price holds above $420 , macro bullish market structure remains intact.
Volume profile shows heavy accumulation between $300–$450 , suggesting smart money is still positioned long-term bullish.
💰 Fundamental Confluence
META’s fundamentals are catching up with technicals:
Massive AI CapEx and ad recovery boosting EPS growth 📊
Metaverse burn rate shrinking , improving profitability
Share buybacks providing a floor for price corrections
Macro environment supports tech leadership rotation , and META remains a key beneficiary of the AI + social data synergy cycle 🔄
🔮 Market Cycle View
We’re entering the “Expansion Phase” of the broader innovation cycle.
2018–2022 = Accumulation/Disbelief
2023–2025 = Early Markup / Smart Money Entry
2025–2029 = Public Participation Phase (Wave 3) 💥
Post-2029 = Euphoria / Distribution (Wave 5) 😱
⚙️ Key Levels to Watch
Support Zones: $420 – $500 (Wave 4 re-entry)
Resistance Levels: $955 → $4,160 (Wave 3 targets)
Invalidation: Sustained break below $300 on weekly close
📈 Summary
META remains one of the strongest macro bullish charts in big tech — with perfect alignment across Elliott Wave, SMC, Fibonacci , and fundamental cycle theory .
We’re currently witnessing the mid-phase of Wave 3 , with institutional repositioning before the next vertical leg. Patience and precision around the reaccumulation zone ($420–$500) could provide the golden setup before the next expansion wave 🚀🌕
#META #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcepts #Fibonacci #Wave3 #BullMarket #AIStocks #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView






















