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$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Growth pulse check: The Empire State Manufacturing Survey kicks off the day — a real-time test of factory sentiment post-summer slowdown. 📘 Fed Beige Book afternoon drop: Key read on regional activity and inflation anecdotes — markets often reposition after release. 💬 Fed parade continues: Bostic, Miran, and Waller keep rate-cut expectations in focus ahead of Thursday’s data risk. ⚠️ Shutdown overhang: Broader data (CPI/PPI/Retail) still paused — traders key off qualitative signals like Beige Book tone. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct) ⏰ 12:10 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech ⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 1:00 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book ⚠️ Note: Shutdown continues to delay most federal data releases. Beige Book offers the only official economic snapshot this week — high read-through for inflation, wages, and business conditions. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #BeigeBook #EmpireState #Waller #Bostic #Miran #bonds #yields #inflation #shutdown #economy
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY Bounce or Bull Trap? Monday’s Trendline Decides Oct. 13SPY Oversold Bounce or Just Another Trap? Watch This Trendline Monday Friday’s session was brutal — SPY sank nearly 3%, printing a full-day liquidation move after the volatility spike tied to the tariff shock. But after hours, something interesting happened: buyers finally showed up around the $650 zone, a level that matches both key technical and gamma support. Heading into Monday, the market sits at an inflection point. Let’s look at the 15-minute structure for intraday momentum and the 1-hour GEX map for broader positioning clues. 15-Minute Intraday Technical View SPY has been stuck in a clean descending channel, printing lower highs and lower lows for three straight sessions. But the 15-minute chart shows early signs that the selling pressure is slowing down. The MACD histogram flipped from red to light blue, hinting at a loss of bearish momentum. Meanwhile, Stoch RSI has curled back up sharply from the oversold zone near 20, pushing toward 80 — a signal of short-term strength returning. Right now, the key battle zone is the 655–657 trendline area. If SPY breaks and closes above it, that would confirm a mini intraday reversal setup. Above that, potential targets are 661, 666, and 673, where the upper trendline and prior liquidity pockets sit. But if SPY fails at the trendline and rejects under 652, the next leg down could test 646–642, which is the deeper gamma and liquidity floor from Friday’s crash. Scalp bias: * Long above 657 → target 666–670 (gap-fill zone). * Short below 652 → target 646–642 (continuation leg). The structure suggests that Monday’s open will likely start with a volatility-driven reaction — expect either a strong bounce into resistance or a failed retest that sets up a fresh low. 1-Hour GEX Analysis — Options Sentiment This is where things get tactical. Friday’s selloff drove SPY into deep negative gamma, which forces market makers to sell into weakness. The HVL (Highest Volatility Line) sits around 660, making it the key pivot where volatility could begin to unwind if reclaimed. Below that, there’s a cluster of Put Walls between 651 and 646, marking heavy hedging zones — this aligns perfectly with Friday’s low and the current support region. That area is the line in the sand for bulls. Above, Call Walls start showing up around 674–680, which represent dealer resistance and likely gamma caps if the market tries to squeeze higher. IVR sits at 28.7, and IVX is around 21.2, meaning volatility remains elevated but could compress quickly on a bounce. Put positioning (115.5%) is still extreme, suggesting sentiment is deeply bearish — and when positioning gets this lopsided, snapback rallies often follow. If SPY closes above 660, dealers begin to unwind shorts, potentially fueling a relief rally toward 670+. But a failure to hold above 652 keeps the gamma pressure active, and new lows could form near 642. My Thoughts and Trade Ideas The market looks oversold, but not yet safe. SPY is trapped between heavy Put hedging below and resistance gamma above. The risk/reward favors a tactical bounce as long as 652 holds — but traders should treat it as a scalp, not a swing, until volatility confirms a reversal. For intraday scalpers: * Long bias: watch for reclaim above 657 with volume — aim for 666–670. * Bearish continuation: rejection at trendline + VIX > 22 = retest of 646. For option traders: * Short-term recovery setup: 660C or 670C, tight expiration (if SPY stabilizes above 657). * Hedge setup: 650P or 645P, if the market shows risk-off continuation. This is a “reaction” day, not prediction day — momentum will decide direction early in the session. Final Take SPY is sitting right on top of a major volatility floor, where both technicals and options data align. The downside looks stretched, but a weak open could still shake out more stops before any recovery. Above 657 = relief rally potential.
Below 652 = another leg of pain. Watch volatility — it’ll tell you which side wins. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade your plan and manage your risk carefully.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
1
SPY Reaches 2-year Final Target #3 (670) and DropsTrading Fam, I promised a video update this week. However, due to unforeseen issues with my streaming app, I have opted for a static post instead. Apologies but I'll go through updates on our chart, explaining where we are, and where we might be headed next. We'll start here with the weekly. I want you to focus in on the yellow Elliot Wave pattern. All along I have stated that I am no Elliot Wave expert. However, I seem to have gotten it right this time ...at least so far. The first wave starts around Dec. of 2018. We dipped harshly during COVID and that completed our wave (2). The third wave is often long and extended and we hit our top in Jan. 2022. Wave (4) then gave us our dip and the start of our Cup and Handle seen in pink. I don't know much but I do know wave (5) is often equal or greater than (3). I started looking for a final target for wave (5). My Cup and Handle soon offered that target to me. So now let's zoom into the daily: You can see Target #1 was nearly hit. You'll remember I sold here due to nearly touching that white uptrend. I waited for the dip back into support (RED) and re-entered focusing in on Target #2 which also coincided with price hitting that white trendline and being rejected. We bounced on that red support again and double-topped. This time we broke through our red support and came all the way down to another support which I expected to hold (white). It did. I then knew we were on our way to Target #3. But I've stated all along that I did not think we'd break back above that previous red support which now has become massive resistance. So far, I have been right. The Cup and Handle pattern also gave me that 670-700 target. Nailed that as well. Could we go higher? Absolutely. That's what blow-off tops do. They often surprise the market with one final wild ride. Everyone piles in out of FOMO. And I have expected a final price of up to $700 SPY all along. Will this happen? Remains to be seen. But my experience has taught me that we are near the top. And since, I am satisfied with a price of $670 being that this is the beginning of my third and final target box, I pulled most of my personal money out a few days ago. My main goal now is to avoid greed and preserve capital. That is what I will do until the market tells me otherwise. I want to take one final look at our monthly chart: See that thick white trendline that starts in 2009? That is the beginning of our secular bull market. This next part is going to sound insane but that is often the case when you read what I write, we could technically drop all the way down to SPY 300, over 55% from where we are right now, and STILL be in a bull market! Can you imagine how many traders will start to scream that the world is ending? And yet, technically the market will remain bullish. Crazy to think about, but definitely worth noting. ✌️Stew
AMEX:SPYShort
by stewdamus
SPY: Walking a fine lineIts been a while since I have done a comprehensive written post, mostly because I don't generally have much to talk about. But buckle up buttercups because its going to be a long one. I got lots to talk about. Everyone's favourite little SPY. Or, as I like to call it as of this year, this abomination of man. Its up to some serious nonsense currently. But before we get into that, let's just recap on some of my most recent video ideas. Monthly Outlook My bias is Bullish. Mostly because SPY only goes up, but also because we have a bullish gap probability on the month (as well as the average October return being 1.54%) and we are currently over the bullish conditional (being over which increases the probability of hitting high targets). Let's just recap the monthly with the Seasonally adjusted monthly levels for SPY: We can see we are clearly overly the bullish threshold, with gap probability biased towards the upside. Now let's take a closer look at the statistics from recent. Since fake crosses are a thing and SPY has been known to cross on fakeouts: Now these backtest results are slightly skewed because: a) These levels are based on October, while how pinescript does the backtest is just each month of recent. The actual backtest results isolated for October I have shared with you in my previous October outlook, but this just gives you a feel for kind of the follow through, we can see that there is better follow through on bearish breaks than bullish breaks, but 15% of bullish crosses fail. But: b) The bull market trendline is well in intact, albeit it has not been tested recently (you can see this in the main chart but I will reproduce here for convenience): c) Our last test of the BMTL (my new abbreviation for Bull market trend line) was on Sept 2nd, with an average of 21 days between re-tests. We are now pushing at 26 days since our last re-test. This is all fine and dandy, but SPY is showing some trend fatigue and some aeras of concern. We can see the trend fatigue from the PA itself, but here are some quantiative measures of SPY's actual trend (I will add the results for QQQ s well): I have listed on the daily and hourly. The results are not ideal. The 2 biggest concerns here are: a) In both cases, entropy is very high, especially on the hourly timeframe (> 0.70). As Entropy approaches 0.75 the probability of a transition / change increases. Not only that, but high entropy causes chaotic price action. Entropy can be seen as a kind of measurement of chaos. The higher the number (the closer to 1) the more chaotic the system is. While it does show as improving, the value is incredibly elevated, especially on the hourly timeframe. This is critical because this greatly increases trader's risk exposure, especially in day trading (the fake breakdown we saw and then reclaim is an example of high entropy and chaos). It urges caution with positions in either direction. c) The next big red flag is the fleeting volume. This has been consistently visible over the past 2 weeks. What this means is that as price goes up, Volume was not increasing (i.e. there really are no new buyers being enticed). As of this week, its actually fleeting Volume, which means as price goes up, Volume declines. Flat volume are signs of stable trends and can signal that price discovery and harmony has been met. However, declining volume in the face of upward (or even downward) movement raises concerns of trend fatigue / exhaustion. The rest of the data is so-so, with the exception of QQQ showing structural weakness (i.e. the uptrend is showing signs of faltering). In general, these metrics would lead one to believe that we are at trend fatigue but is important to understand that trend fatigue does not always = trend correction or selling. Trend fatigue can manifest in different ways, of course selling/pullback is one of them, but other ways are consolidation and more volatile and chaotic price action. We can't be sure which outcome it will do (selling/ consolidation / volatility) but we can be sure that risk exposure will be substantially augmented when you are trading fatigued trends. But wait, there's more! In addition to SPY and QQQ's fatigued states, we are seeing increasingly looming fatigue in the market, most notably via chart patterns. For those who have followed me, you know I love Bulkowski patterns. I have even trained my own Bulkowski model on the top 130 patterns (65 bullish and 65 bearish). To put it to good use, I created a screener that would screen the top tickers of the indices and have started tracking this. Here are some interesting results: SPY: Between yesterday and today, there has been a 3.6% increase in bearish patterns. QQQ slight increase but mostly unremarkable: Not a significant increase but creeping up with a huge portion of the holdings displaying bearish chart patterns. Shorter timeframe With the government shutdown still in effect, the market hasn't had the cycles of news release and the semblance of reality checks it gets from time to time. Perhaps that can be used as the excuse of why SPY broke down from an incredibly bearish wedge, only to reclaim it today: The government shut down can also account for the increase in entropy. The market has been left "in the dark" and "blinded to reality checks". Though these reality checks tend to be short lived they still do have an initial impact and have helped us pullback in the past. There is no end in sight for the shut down and thus the market is flying blind and just being left to its own devices. As such, except the chaos to continue. But in the shorter timeframe (i.e. into end of week), here are my thoughts and where we currently stand now: SPY has snagged PL1 on the week and bounced there. We are now at the "Most likely high target" (orange line) with the next anticipated move to 675 (PH1). If we surpass that, the anticipation is continuation up to 678 on the week (PH2). There are no outstanding high probability downside targets. There are some noteworthy things, such as: a) SPY printed a bearish Heikin Ashi setup on the Daily Though this is likely to be invalidated. With a move a bit higher into the end of this week and a bit higher into next week, we would theoretically make a bearish HA setup on the Weekly: Lots of bearish stuff showing up though its always shaken off and ignored. The reality is the market is walking a fine line with this elated exuberance that doesn't really make sense if you consider the underlying economic instability. But alas, irrational markets are a hallmark I know quite well. Though since my nascence into the tradingsphere in 2018, this is the most irrational market I have ever traded in my life! TLDR As of now, looking for SPY to continue up to 675 and if that is exceeded, next step is 678.19. Market is walking on a tightrope and may lose its footing at any moment, so be prepared and position accordingly. As always, not advice and Safe trades!
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
6
SPY The Target Is UP! BUY! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on SPY and concluded the following: The market is trading on 653.12 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 660.90 Safe Stop Loss - 649.43 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnabelSignals
1
$SPY | Controlled Correction Before the Next Impulse⚙️ AMEX:SPY | Controlled Correction Before the Next Impulse The market just rejected the 0.886 Fib (≈ $673) after months of consistent accumulation and trend extension. This type of rejection usually signals the transition from a markup phase → corrective rebalancing, often aligning with institutional reallocation or short-term risk repricing. Technical Overview Current: $659.4 (rejection from $673) Support Zone: $610 – $602 → 0.5–0.618 retracement zone Macro Target: $719 – $747 → 1.236–1.382 Fib extension zone Momentum: RSI rolling down from overbought; structure confirming controlled decline Confluence: 50MA & 200MA convergence near $610 Previous breakout base at same zone (April–May support memory) VolanX DSS Bias 🧭 Short-term: Bearish retracement toward $610 – $602 📈 Mid-term: Accumulation expected before a renewed impulse toward $719+ 🧩 Long-term: Structure remains bullish unless we close below $585 Macro Outlook A correction here isn’t a crash — it’s the necessary reloading before the next leg. Liquidity sweep + sentiment reset → Q1 2026 could trigger the next cycle rally. For now, the VolanX system tracks downside liquidity at $610 and $585 before upside recalibration. Trading Insight Bearish Play: Short / Put Spread 660→610 (30–45DTE) Bullish Reversal Play: Long / Call Spread 680→720 (post-610 confirmation) Risk Management: Maintain macro patience; scaling beats chasing. VolanX DSS Outlook: “Liquidity precedes expansion. Rebalancing now, rally later.” #SPY #VolanX #SmartMoney #MacroAnalysis #Fibonacci #WaverVanir
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 13–17, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 13–17, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Inflation-heavy week: PPI, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production headline the macro slate — but several may be ⚠️subject to delay due to the shutdown. 💬 Fed circuit overload: 10+ Fed speakers including Bowman, Waller, Bostic, Barkin, and Miran — tone-watching replaces missing data. 📉 Consumer & housing pulse: Retail Sales, Homebuilder Confidence, and Housing Starts offer critical insight into demand — if they post on time. 💻 Earnings meets macro: Early Q3 results from banks + big tech guide sentiment alongside muted macro signals. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 📅 Mon, Oct 13 — Columbus Day 🇺🇸 (Bond Market Closed) ⏰ 12:55 PM — Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed) speaks 📅 Tue, Oct 14 ⏰ 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Sept) ⏰ 8:45 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 3:25 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 3:30 PM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed) speech 📅 Wed, Oct 15 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct) ⏰ 12:10 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech ⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 1:00 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book 📅 Thu, Oct 16 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Sept) — ⚠️ May be delayed due to shutdown ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (PPI, Sept) — ⚠️ May be delayed ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 11) — ⚠️ At risk of delay ⏰ 9:00 AM — Waller & Miran (Fed Govs) speeches ⏰ 10:00 AM — Homebuilder Confidence (Oct) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Gov) remarks ⏰ 12:45 PM / 4:30 PM — Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed) speeches 📅 Fri, Oct 17 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Housing Starts / Building Permits (Sept) — ⚠️ Possible delay ⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Sept) — ⚠️ Possible delay ⏰ 🚩 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Sept) — ⚠️ Possible delay ⚠️ Shutdown Watch: Several economic reports (Retail Sales, PPI, Jobless Claims, Housing, Industrial Production) depend on agencies like the Census Bureau, BLS, and BEA — if the shutdown persists, these will be postponed until government funding resumes. Expect headline-driven trading, Fed-speak sensitivity, and lighter macro liquidity through the week. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #Bowman #Waller #Bostic #Barkin #Miran #RetailSales #PPI #BeigeBook #inflation #bonds #shutdown #economy #housing #earnings #macro
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
All Conditions for a Short Are in PlaceIt’s good to have the weekend to think everything through and make a decision calmly. Shorting a rising market is usually a bad idea — I’ve tried before, and it’s only natural that my stop losses got hit. On Friday, I was watching the market. Without going deep into the political background — I’m sure you’ve read the same things — I’ll sum it up in one word: negative. To this, we can add overall overheating. The way the market sold off that day doesn’t look like the end of the decline — although, of course, anything can happen. I believe that right now is the perfect moment to open a short position on the S&P 500 at the market open . The stop will be wide — not pleasant, of course, if it gets hit again — but I feel that all conditions have aligned for a short setup. My target is 640 — a strong resistance level, still about 2% away. I’ll be watching closely around that zone. A move below 640 will open the path toward 595–605 , where I plan to start closing positions — possibly even earlier, depending on how price reacts to that key 640 level. There are too many long positions in the market now; so far, we’ve only seen margin positions being liquidated. I think Monday might start with closing out long positions. Either way, we’ll see at the open — but for now, I’ve outlined my plan and I intend to stick to it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by kventinka
SPY at critical point. If we are bullish things may get crazy.So SPY has been in a large channel since the Jan 2018 Trump Top. (Anyone remember that crazy time?) 401k was pumping and then a huge snap back to reality. Well we had covid crash and spending sprees and inflation panic and build back better and tariff wars and now euphoria. So I think a pullback is in order here... but what if it isn't? So for fun I figure what if we break out of the channel? We could have a large blow-off top based on the measured move. We could in theory get up to a 75% single year return for the SNP500 (April 2025 to April 2026) Has that ever happened? It would be wild, and is technically speaking in the cards. I think if it did happen it would be the top of the bubble, and if we did swing and do the measured move on the opposite side of the channel we would end up down near the inflation panic of 2022 accumulation zone, also possible depending on a debt bomb that causes social safety-net cuts (See current shutdown) and possible AI bubble pop. It can happen. Keep an eye out and be careful out there. :)
AMEX:SPY
by MikeSpy
SPY potential bounce target (Fib / Trend Line)What a morning we had, I wish I would have caught the entire wave down, I did not expect a drop like this to happen, I was only able to capture maybe 20% of the drop in my short. Overall not a bad day. Usually after a drop we look to re-enter for a long. In order to avoid catching a falling knife, we are looking to break down out entry for long into 2. 1st Entry, right at the yellow support line, around 655.xx to 656 We would like to see a bounce then retest the yellow line and entry on the 2nd bounce. 2nd Entry would be at the Fib Level 0.382 I use E-wave pattern as a reference + fib retrace/ext to gauge most of my entry. My biggest fear with this trade is that the pattern that I am expecting to happen end up finishing in ES before the market open on Monday. So instead of buying 2 weeks out contract, I am going to buy calls closer to 4 weeks expiration in case I am wrong or ES movement on Sunday and I ended up missed out the entire structure. TL:DR Enter 1st long at $655.xx If we dropped below $655 2nd Long is at 0382 FIB / $683.22 I will probably stop out if it dip below 0.5 FIB I am not ruling out the possibility that we will go down further than 683.22 and head to 0.5 Fib or even 0.618 Fib. As always trade with caution, always have a stop loss to prevent blowing up account.
AMEX:SPYLong
by polarity
Why traders are losing money? Position Size PurposeWhy traders are losing money Most traders do not lose because the market is hostile or because entries are bad. They lose because the size of each position is out of sync with account size, with volatility, and with a realistic pain threshold. They also stack correlated exposure until a normal downswing becomes a career ending drawdown. The fix is a repeatable sizing process that keeps losses small, keeps risk per trade constant across regimes, and caps total open risk across the book. Root causes of loss clustering Risk per trade that is too large for the real account balance that is available for trading Stops that ignore volatility so a quiet week and a fast week carry the same unit count while loss size swings wildly Portfolio heat that compounds across correlated positions in the same theme or factor Inconsistent exits so a written stop is moved or ignored after the position is open Scaling rules that add size before the trade earns the right to carry more risk A review loop that tracks money rather than R so results are not comparable across instruments One principle to anchor the lesson Risk lives in the distance between entry and stop. Size lives in how much money you are willing to risk on that distance. Everything else is detail. When you fix these two elements the account stops bleeding from one mistake and the equity curve starts to respect your personal pain limits. The unit formula in plain words Units equals Account times Risk percent divided by Stop distance Stop distance equals Entry minus Stop in price units For futures or forex convert the distance to money with tick or pip value before you divide Round the result to the venue step size Percent risk formula and worked example Set a realistic risk percent Pick a range between zero point two five and one point zero percent of account per trade If you are new stay closer to zero point two five If you are experienced and you follow rules under pressure stay near zero point five to one point zero Use only capital that is truly available for trading Define the stop with intent You can define a stop by price structure or by volatility. Structure is a level that invalidates the setup. Volatility is a multiple of the average true range. Both work if you keep the rule stable. The aim is not to predict a perfect level. The aim is to measure distance so you can compute size with precision and keep loss per trade constant in money terms. Volatility aware sizing When the average true range doubles you must expect larger swings. If you keep the same unit count the same entry to stop distance will cost twice as much. A simple way to neutralise this effect is to tie the stop to a multiple of the average true range and then let the unit count float. When volatility rises the unit count shrinks. When volatility calms the unit count grows. Risk per trade stays constant. Practice example Risk money equals one hundred Stop distance equals three point zero in a calm regime Units equals one hundred divided by three which is thirty three units rounded If volatility doubles and the stop distance becomes six point zero the new unit count becomes sixteen units rounded Loss per trade stays near one hundred in both regimes Portfolio heat in clear numbers Portfolio heat is the sum of risk money across all open trades as a percent of account. If you allow the sum to balloon during correlated trends you are betting the entire account on one theme. A simple cap keeps you in business. Set a heat cap between four and eight percent of account Count correlated positions as one theme for heat If a new trade would push heat above the cap you must reduce size or defer the trade Keep a cash buffer for slippage and gap risk Heat includes correlated risk. Keep combined open risk under your limit R multiple as the common unit R is the unit that equals your risk per trade. If you risk one hundred then one R is one hundred. A two R gain is two hundred. A one R loss is one hundred. Because R normalises money across instruments and timeframes you can compare strategies without confusion. When you review your trades in R the mind stops obsessing about price and starts focusing on process. Expectancy in words and numbers Expectancy is the average R result per trade. It depends on win rate and payoff ratio. You do not need equations to grasp it. You can compute it with simple mental math. Practice example A Win rate equals forty five percent Average win equals two point two R Average loss equals one point zero R For every ten trades wins contribute nine point nine R and losses subtract five point five R Expectancy equals four point four R per ten trades or zero point four four R per trade before fees Practice example B Win rate equals thirty five percent Average win equals three point zero R Average loss equals one point zero R For every ten trades wins contribute ten point five R and losses subtract six point five R Expectancy equals four point zero R per ten trades or zero point four R per trade before fees The shape of expectancy changes when volatility changes. If you keep risk per trade constant and let the unit count respond to stop distance expectancy measured in R will be more stable across regimes. That stability translates into better position control and calmer decision making. Why money management fails in practice Traders set a risk percent but do not compute units from entry and stop before the order They move the stop after position entry and invalidate the size calculation They add to losers because the entry feels almost right and average down risk with no plan They never reduce size after a loss streak so the book enters a feedback loop where a normal downswing becomes a spiral They treat wins as proof of skill and losses as anomalies rather than counting both in R and accepting variance A position sizing workflow you can follow every time Write the setup and the trigger in one line Define the stop with a structure rule or with a multiple of the average true range Measure the stop distance in price units Select the risk percent that fits your current equity and your mental state Convert the stop distance to money if the instrument uses ticks or pips Compute units as Account times Risk percent divided by Stop distance Round to the venue step size and check that the notional fits practical constraints Place the order only after the number of units is in the ticket and the stop is written Scaling with intent Scaling is not a trick to force a trade to work. Scaling is a way to stage risk through time. The rule is simple. Add size only after the trade earns the right to carry more risk. Reduce risk when momentum fades or when volatility rises. One simple scale plan Enter half size when volatility is rising or when the theme is crowded Add the second half only after the trade moves one R in your favour Move the stop to reduce open risk when the second half is added Do not exceed the heat cap across the book after the add Compute size. Check heat. Execute only if rules align Comparator versus buy and hold Buy and hold does not respect a personal pain limit. It lets drawdown float with price. A sized trade fixes the maximum loss in money terms at the start. The difference is not ideology. The difference is the choice to survive. Practice scenario Price falls ten percent after entry in a fast regime A buy and hold position shows a ten percent account drawdown if one position equals the entire account A sized trade with one percent risk shows a one percent account drawdown by design The sized trade can take many attempts because capital is preserved for the next signal Kelly fraction and optimal f cautions Kelly and optimal f are powerful in theory. They aim to maximise growth for a known edge. Real trading edges drift and sample sizes are small. Full Kelly creates deep drawdowns and can trigger a behavioural spiral. If you decide to use these methods treat the fraction as a ceiling rather than a target and remain near half Kelly or less. Always measure drawdown in R and reduce size after a loss streak. Loss streak protocol Loss streaks are part of variance. A simple protocol keeps them from damaging your decision cycle. After four consecutive losses reduce risk per trade by half Freeze adds and focus on clean entries only Review the last ten trades in R and tag any rule violations Return to the base risk percent only after a new equity high or after a full week of clean execution Heat management across themes The book is a living system. A theme can be a sector a factor a style or a macro driver. If four positions express the same theme treat them as one for heat. The market does not care that the tickers differ. Correlation in stress is the rule. The heat cap is your defence against that correlation. Fees and slippage discipline Small edges die from friction. If your average win is near one R and your average loss is near one R you must protect that edge by keeping fees and slippage small. Choose venues with adequate liquidity. Avoid market orders during news bursts. Use limit orders to control entry and exit where practical. Assume a realistic round trip fee in your backtests so that live results match expectations. Journaling that actually helps Your journal should capture rules and numbers rather than emotions alone. Use a compact template. Setup name and trigger Entry price and stop price Risk money and unit count Reason for the stop placement Exit reason and realized R Any deviation from the plan Practice drills to build fluency Speed matters during live markets. These drills train your sizing reflexes. Drill one. Percent risk to units Account equals twenty thousand Risk equals one percent which is two hundred Stop distance equals zero point eight Units equals two hundred divided by zero point eight which is two hundred fifty units Drill two. Volatility step change Risk equals one hundred fifty Stop at two average true range equals three point two which gives forty six units rounded If the average true range rises by fifty percent the stop becomes four point eight and units become thirty one rounded Loss per trade remains near one hundred fifty Drill three. Futures or forex conversion Risk equals three hundred Stop equals twenty ticks Tick value equals twelve point five Stop distance in money equals two hundred fifty Contracts equals three hundred divided by two hundred fifty which is one contract with a small buffer for slippage Drill four. Heat check Four open trades at one percent risk each looks like four percent heat If three of them are the same theme treat them as one for heat Effective heat is closer to three percent and a new trade in that theme should be deferred Checklist before every order Is the setup valid according to the written rule Is the stop defined by structure or by a multiple of the average true range Have you measured the stop distance correctly Is the risk percent chosen and written on the ticket Are units computed from Account times Risk percent divided by Stop distance Does the book stay under the heat cap after this order Are you in a loss streak that requires reduced size Common myths to retire Myth. Bigger size proves conviction. Reality. Bigger size proves you have abandoned process Myth. A tight stop is always better. Reality. A stop that ignores volatility will be hit by noise Myth. Averaging down improves price. Reality. Averaging down expands risk without proof that the idea is valid Myth. A few big winners will save the month. Reality. A few big losers can end the year How to adapt across timeframes The rules above are timeframe agnostic. Shorter timeframes require tighter execution and more attention to fees. Longer timeframes require more patience and a wider cash buffer for gaps. In both cases the math does not change. You measure distance. You set risk money. You compute units. You respect the heat cap. You review in R. Edge drift and regime change Edges do not vanish overnight. They drift when the crowd learns the pattern or when macro drivers shift. Your sizing process makes you resilient to drift. Because risk per trade is fixed a flat or negative edge bleeds slowly and gives you time to notice and step back. If you see expectancy in R slide over a thirty or fifty trade sample reduce size and review the rule set before you push the gas again. Putting it all together A trader who sizes by feel can enjoy a series of quick gains and then give it back in one week. A trader who sizes by rule can be wrong half the time and still grow steadily. The difference is not superior prediction. The difference is the choice to define loss before entry to respect volatility and to cap heat so a cluster of normal losers does not become a personal crisis. A compact template you can copy Setup name and timeframe Entry trigger in one sentence Stop rule. Structure or two average true range or another clearly written rule Account and risk percent Stop distance in price units and in money Units computed and rounded to step size Heat check across the book and across the theme Planned targets in R and exit rules Bottom line Risk per trade must be small and stable Stops must respect volatility Portfolio heat must remain inside a hard cap Review results in R and adjust size after loss streaks Let the unit count float with volatility so risk money per trade remains constant Education Education and analytics only. Not investment advice. Test every rule with historical data before risking capital. The lesson below is theory with practice drills you can apply to any liquid instrument and any timeframe.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by exlux
Follow up to my previous post on SPY potential support levelsSPY Technical Analysis — Elliott Wave & Fibonacci Structure After failing to hold at two key support levels highlighted in the previous update, SPY finally found a temporary bounce at the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level around 646.84. This aligns with a common Wave 4 retracement bounce zone after an aggressive Wave 3 move down. 1. Wave Structure The current bounce appears corrective in nature and is likely forming Wave 4 (up) within the broader downtrend. I do not view this bounce as a full reversal yet — price action still favors a final Wave 5 leg lower. Ideally, Wave 5 could form a double bottom near the 0.50 Fib level (646.84), providing a potential base-building zone. 2. Key Levels to Watch 🟡 0.50 Fib (646.84) — current bounce zone; potential double-bottom target. 0.618 Fib (640.39) — next critical support if 0.50 fails. A break here may prolong the corrective structure. ⚫ 0.786 Fib (631.21) — deeper retracement zone. There’s a supply zone just above this level (see grey box on chart), which may offer initial demand or reaction. 3.Scenario Planning If 646.84 holds and price consolidates, a short-term bullish structure could form, but any upside is likely corrective. If 646.84 fails, the 0.618 level becomes pivotal. Breaking this area may push price into the grey supply zone near 0.786. My preferred setup in this scenario would be to wait for a clean reaction at the grey zone: Look for a bounce ➝ retrace ➝ breakout above the bounce high to signal a potential long entry. Stop-loss placement would likely be just below 0.786 Fib (631.21) to reduce downside exposure. 4. Macro Consideration Headline risk remains — any unexpected bullish catalyst (e.g., political or macroeconomic news, such as statements from Donald Trump) could accelerate or truncate the Wave 4–5 structure. A short squeeze from oversold levels is also possible but would need confirmation.
AMEX:SPY
by polarity
SPY Oct. 9 — Bulls Testing $674 ResistanceEyes on Breakout Toward 676+ 🚀 SPY continues to climb within a strong ascending channel after reclaiming the $670 zone, with bullish structure confirmed through multiple BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH points on the 15-minute chart. Price is consolidating just below $674 — the key gamma resistance and intraday supply zone. MACD shows solid bullish momentum with expanding histogram bars, and the Stoch RSI is elevated but still holding steady, suggesting continuation potential if buyers push through $674. A minor CHoCH printed earlier near $672.1 confirms short-term consolidation before the next leg up. On the 1-hour chart, SPY remains in a clean uptrend, supported by strong HVL footing near $669, while the highest positive Net GEX / Gamma Wall sits at $673–$675, right where current price is testing. The range compression between $669 and $674 signals that volatility expansion could be imminent. Support and Resistance Levels: * Immediate Resistance: $673.72 → $675.0 * Major Resistance (Gamma Wall): $676.5 → $678.0 * Immediate Support: $672.16 → $671.0 * Key Support Zone: $669.4 → $667.5 GEX & Options Sentiment (1H GEX Chart): * The highest positive Call Gamma concentration lies around $673–$676, forming the current resistance magnet. * Strong Put Support remains between $665–$667, reinforcing the bullish gamma floor. * IVR (15.4) is relatively low, suggesting stable volatility conditions; Puts at 56.8% indicate some hedging but not enough to cap upside momentum. * As long as SPY stays above $669, dealer hedging flows favor gradual upward bias toward $676+. Trade Scenarios: Bullish Setup: * Entry: Above $674 breakout * Target 1: $676 * Target 2: $678 * Stop-Loss: Below $671.5 * Rationale: Breakout from channel top with bullish MACD momentum and supportive GEX flow could fuel a push toward higher gamma resistance zones. Bearish Setup: * Entry: Below $671 breakdown * Target 1: $669 * Target 2: $667 * Stop-Loss: Above $673.5 * Rationale: A rejection at $674 with fading momentum could trigger a quick pullback to retest lower support and refill liquidity gaps. SPY continues to trend strong with clear bullish control. A breakout above $674 could open the door to $676–$678, while staying above $669 keeps the bias upward. Traders should watch for volume confirmation on the breakout or a false move back into range. Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading. If anyone needs me to TA any stock, PM me.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 10, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 10, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Consumer pulse check: UMich prelim sentiment drops back into focus — inflation expectations will steer bond yields & risk tone. 📉 Shutdown drag: Budget data may stay delayed — leaving traders to anchor on Fed commentary & macro positioning. 💬 Fed watch: Goolsbee’s remarks could frame how policymakers interpret slowing sentiment versus resilient inflation. 💻 End-week flows: Re-balancing pressure + light liquidity could magnify afternoon swings in AMEX:SPY and $QQQ. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) opening remarks ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Oct) — Forecast 60.4 | Prior 53.5 ⏰ 2:00 PM — Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (Sept) subject to delay due to shutdown ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Goolsbee #UMich #sentiment #budget #shutdown #bonds #Dollar #economy #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY OCT 2025SPY 4H — After the latest push, price is pausing below recent highs. Buyers keep absorbing dips into 660, while sellers are distributing near 675–680. Above 660, the structure still favors continuation toward the upper channel. Target to the upside: 690 Target to the downside: 660 first; if lost, 650 → 640 #SPY #globaltrade #investment #investing #stockmarket #wealth #realestate #markets #economy #finance #money #forex #trading #price #business #currency #blockchain #crypto #cryptocurrency #airdrop #btc #ethereum #ico #altcoin #cryptonews #Bitcoin #ipo
AMEX:SPYLong
by TWMMPRO
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 9, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Powell spotlight: The Fed Chair’s morning remarks set the tone for risk sentiment — traders watching for policy bias hints. 💬 Fed overload: Bowman, Kashkari, Barr, and Daly dominate the docket — expect intraday rate-path chatter. 📉 Shutdown shadows: Jobless Claims* and Inventories* may face data delays; market liquidity remains headline-driven. 💻 Macro rotation: AMEX:SPY trades tightly to yield moves; tech leadership faces cross-currents as real rates stay firm. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Fed Chair Jerome Powell opening remarks ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 4) subject to delay ⏰ 8:35 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision) welcoming remarks ⏰ 8:45 AM — Michelle Bowman speech ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Aug)* subject to delay ⏰ 12:45 PM — Neel Kashkari + Michael Barr discussion ⏰ 3:45 PM — Michelle Bowman speech ⏰ 4:10 PM — Mary Daly (SF Fed) speech ⏰ 9:40 PM — Mary Daly evening remarks ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #Bowman #Kashkari #Barr #Daly #joblessclaims #bonds #Dollar #shutdown #economy #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao