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SPY trade ideas

SPY | Leap of Doom?SPY just jumped... The wrong way up! To sustain you must conserve. To climb up a hill, you need energy, resources like food and water. The energy they give you far out-weighs their absolute mass. Therefore it makes sense for you to carry them. And they have taken you very far... But now you have run out of energy. Price growth needs transaction volume to have strength and meaning. You are too light(headed) to realize that moving further up is a dead-end. THIS IS NOT SOMETHING SMALL. SPY is one of the largest Funds in the world. A first-ever major violation of volume trend, in such a big index, must not be ignored. Imagine what is happening underneath... Look at some examples: NVDA The most massive of companies, has a multi-year issue with volume. MSFT Unlike its first growth, Microsoft has a tremendous loss of strength in volume metrics. Such long-term drop in volume means that companies offload real stocks for cheap futures . We witness the same with Bitcoin... And gold... Not quite doomed yet, but troublesome still. TSLA Tesla with their shiny and financially pointless cars, has made a pointless growth. Just like many stocks as you will soon realize. AAPL The masses, even though their name suggests that they have some matter, in reality they don't. 10% of people have 90% of wealth. Investors have long left Apple, leaving the hoard inside to bubble up the dream. There is more and more proof that the Fab5 (well the Fab500 as we can see from SPY/SPX) are replacing stocks with derivatives. Real money replaced by weapons of mass destruction, just like Warren Buffett said. Good luck to us all... PS. Something irrelevant to stocks, but relevant to the fundamentals of investing in AAPL. Judging by the recent UI decisions, they trapped the users in bubbles and they are unable to see the truth. Brilliantly, they changed the name of soap bubbles to liquid glass. (bubbles are shiny, crystals are rough). As a long-time Apple user, now not much of an Apple lover, I know quite well the changing philosophy of them. iPhone (and all products) began as a phone for the "smart" ones and ended up the No1 desire for the masses. After a decade, I have switched to Fedora Silverblue for 90% of my leisure.
AMEX:SPY
by akikostas
6
SPY Daily Chart: Uptrend Intact, Key Supports in Focus SPY Daily Chart: Uptrend Intact, Key Supports in Focus Established Uptrend with Strong Trend Line Support: SPY continues to display a clear upward trend on the daily timeframe, with price consistently finding support along the depicted trend line. The recent pullback in mid-August saw price effectively test and bounce off this crucial trend line, reaffirming its strength. 640 as Immediate and Confluent Support: The 640 level has proven to be an immediate support zone, coinciding with the recent touch of the upward trend line. The market has shown a decisive bounce from this confluence of support, suggesting current bullish momentum for the short term. Key Level 620-625 as Deeper Support: Should the immediate 640 support and the upward trend line fail to hold, the next significant 'Key Level' to monitor is the 620 to 625 range. This area has previously acted as a strong demand zone and would represent a more substantial correction within the prevailing uptrend. Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech signaling potential rate cuts amid labor market slowdown and inflation risks, fueled a surge in growth and tech stocks, reinforcing today’s rally. Disclaimer: The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ManiMarkets
Stock Market is in Risk OnSubscribe and don't miss next ideas The US market, as well as some assets, is in a risk-on mode. Most assets have their own seasonality. The chart above shows one of them: In recent years, in the period July-September, a correction began on the US market. A number of macro indicators also speak in favor of a correction and that it is overdue. Risk appetite according to Morgan Stanley research has reached a historical maximum Although seasonality does not guarantee a correction right here and now, but at least it gives reason to think about reducing long positions
AMEX:SPYShort
by A3MInvestments
SPY at a Decision Point – Aug. 21SPY at a Decision Point – Will 639 Hold or Break? 📉📈 Technical Analysis (1H Chart) SPY is showing a classic bounce attempt after the sharp selloff. Price is sitting around 637–638, just under the downtrend resistance line. The chart highlights: * Trendline Pressure: Multiple touches of the descending trendline; rejection risk remains high unless bulls reclaim 641–642. * Key Support: Buyers defended the 635 zone, with the next strong support down at 632–633. Losing this area could trigger another wave lower. * Momentum Indicators: * MACD is trying to curl bullish from oversold, but momentum is shallow. * Stoch RSI is already extended near overbought — suggesting rallies may stall soon if not confirmed with volume. * Structure: If SPY fails to clear 641.5–642, we may see another lower-high formation and retest of 635. Trading View (Intraday): * Bullish case → Clear break + hold above 642, targeting 646–647 supply zone. * Bearish case → Failure under 639–641 could drag SPY back toward 635–633. GEX / Options Sentiment Options positioning confirms this tight battle zone: * Call Walls / Resistance: * 640 → First big resistance, aligning with HVL zone. * 642–644 → Multiple call walls (9–10% concentration). * 647–648 → Extreme upside wall, likely gamma cap. * Put Walls / Support: * 637 (GEX7 / -11%) → First downside magnet. * 635 (2nd Put Wall / -20%) → Strong support cluster. * 632 (GEX10 / -5%) → Deeper downside target if selling extends. * Net Options Flow: * Puts dominate ~87% (bearish tilt). * IVR low (14.4) → cheap options pricing, directional plays favored. * GEX heavily negative at 639, meaning dealer hedging could accelerate volatility around this pivot. Thoughts & Suggestions * Market is heavily leaning bearish, but intraday scalps can flip quickly if bulls reclaim 642. * For options traders: * Bullish scalp setup → Calls only if breakout above 642 with momentum confirmation. * Bearish setup → Favor puts on rejection under 639–641, with 635/632 as profit zones. * Risk management is key here: chop is possible between 637–641 before a decisive move. 🔔 Conclusion: SPY is at a tight inflection between 639 support and 641–642 resistance. Dealer flow favors downside, but if bulls can reclaim 642, a short squeeze toward 646–647 opens up. Until then, bias stays slightly bearish. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Friday, August 22, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Friday, August 22, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News Powell’s Jackson Hole keynote is the main event (10:00 AM ET). Markets want clarity on the path to cuts and any framework tweaks; the Fed’s own calendar lists the speech and KC Fed confirms the Aug 21–23 agenda. $SPY/$TLT/ TVC:DXY are the most sensitive. Risk tone turned cautious into the speech. Stocks faded Thursday as traders de-risked ahead of Powell; positioning is tight and headline-sensitive. Dollar firm / gold steady into Jackson Hole. Classic pre-keynote safety bid; futures price a high probability of a September cut, keeping two-way risk for rates and equities. Global cues: Japan CPI lands overnight; UK retail sales postponed. Japan’s July inflation print hits before U.S. cash open; the U.K.’s July retail sales were pushed to Sep 5, trimming one macro catalyst from the tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 10:00 AM — Fed Chair Powell @ Jackson Hole (Keynote). Why it matters: Sets near-term curve path and risk appetite; watch $TLT/ TVC:TNX and TVC:DXY → AMEX:SPY reaction. 1:00 PM — Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count. Why it matters: Energy activity → supply expectations → $CL_F/ AMEX:XLE ; persistent rig drift can nudge inflation expectations. (Released weekly at noon CT/1 PM ET.) Overnight — Japan CPI (Jul). Why it matters: Yen rates and global FX spillovers; a surprise could ripple into U.S. risk before the keynote. All day — Jackson Hole Symposium continues. Why it matters: Secondary speakers can color post-Powell reaction as positioning resets. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #JacksonHole #Powell #DXY #TLT #Gold #Energy #RigCount
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Thursday, August 21, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Thursday, August 21, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines Tech jitters spill as Jackson Hole kicks off. Global equities slipped following a tech sell‑off driven by concerns over U.S. intervention in chipmakers, while traders await Fed Chair Powell’s policy cues. AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:TLT under pressure as rate‑cut expectations waver. Sony hikes PS5 prices amid tariffs. Effective August 21, PlayStation 5 models in the U.S. see a $50 price increase—tariff impact spilling into consumer electronics. Raises inflation whispers amid already elevated tech cost narrative. Healthcare activism heats up. Boards at firms like Medtronic, Pfizer, and Novo Nordisk shift under investor pressure—governance shake‑ups adding a layer of corporate risk and potential M&A signals. ⏱ Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 10:00 AM — Advance Services Report (Q2) (Census bureau). Quarterly weight of service economy—strong print supports Pro side of markets; weak could dial back rate‑cut hopes. 10:00 AM — Summer Youth Labor Force Survey (Annual). Goes with job‑market narrative from July—may tweak Fed sentiment depending on labor softening/stability. Jackson Hole Symposium begins. Markets now fully focused on Powell; tone could make or break short‑term equity and bond positions. ⚠ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #Fed #JacksonHole #SPY #SPX #TLT #Sony #tech #tariffs #services #labor #activism #healthcare
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
SPY – No hocus-pocus – Now the witch is hunting the bullsHappy Hump-Day y'all! In the last post (see linked chart), I explained what the witch sees in the future. A possible scenario that is long overdue: the markets are letting out air. With the candles from yesterday and the day before, we have confirmation that the S&P 500 is heading south. That has consequences that not many want to see right now. The bulls will be overrun, panic selling will kick in and drive the markets into the ground even faster. The current profit target is still the Centerline, as marked with the red arrow. Whoever doesn’t cash in at least 50% of their gains now will end up in the witch’s cauldron §8-) Let’s see how this develops. The YT Video will be up tomorrow - gotta feed the witches cat §8-) May the broom be with you!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Wednesday, August 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / CBOE:SPX Scenarios for Wednesday, August 20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News Jackson Hole in focus; dollar firms. Traders lean ~84% odds of a 25bp cut in September; watch TVC:DXY vs. $SPY/ NASDAQ:TLT as Powell risk approaches. Retail baton passes from HD to LOW/TGT. After HD’s hold-guidance rally, attention shifts to Lowe’s/Target for read-throughs on DIY vs. pro spend and tariff pass-through. Risk tone jittery into minutes. Tech led a pullback Tuesday; positioning lightens ahead of Fed minutes and Jackson Hole. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly). Prior: +10.9% w/w (8/13). Why it matters: housing demand pulse → rates/affordability → AMEX:XHB and growth tone. 10:30 AM — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status. Prior crude change: +3.036M bbl. Why it matters: oil balance → gasoline/diesel → inflation & AMEX:XLE path. 1:00 PM — U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction. Typical close: 1:00 ET; also 17-week bill today. Why it matters: term-premium & risk appetite; tails/stop-throughs can shake $TLT/$TNX. 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (July 29–30). Watch for: depth of cut debate, tariffs → inflation, labor cooling. Why it matters: reprices path-of-rates across curve and equities. Earnings (before open): LOW, TGT, TJX, ADI (+ others). Why it matters: U.S. consumer & capex reads; category mix shifts. Lowe’s call 9:00 AM. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #FOMCMinutes #JacksonHole #DXY #TLT #XLE #LOW #TGT #TJX #ADI
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 19, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 19, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines Global markets tread water ahead of Jackson Hole. Asian equities slipped while European futures edged up on signs of diplomatic progress in the Russia–Ukraine crisis, as markets await Fed Chair Powell’s keynote. AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX still anchored to central-bank risk tone. Jackson Hole in focus. Investors are positioning for signals of a dovish tilt or rate cut cues in Powell’s speech later this week—data releases are in the shadow of event risk. Home Depot earnings loom. Retail heavyweight Home Depot reports today; strong results could buoy equities, while a miss would fan caution on consumer resilience. 💼 Key Market Developments Meta and Palo Alto highlight tech divergences. Meta shares slipped 2.3% on AI-leaning costs and metaverse skepticism, while Palo Alto surged 5% with robust Q4 and 2026 outlook—creating bifurcated leadership in tech. Stagflation & AI risk lurk. Analysts warn of stagflation threats and fading AI momentum as catalysts for a broader pullback—S&P 500 still up ~10% YTD, but vulnerable. ⏱ Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📅 Tuesday, August 19, 2025 Canada Inflation Rate (July): Expected 2.0% y/y — a minor but global inflation cue U.S. Building Permits (July): Forecast ~1.39M — housing sector signpost ahead of Powell’s speech Corporate Highlight: Home Depot (HD) earnings — earnings and commentary on inflation, tariffs, demand dynamics ⚠ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #JacksonHole #Fed #SPY #SPX #HD #HomeDepot #JacksonHole #inflation #earnings #tech #AI #SP500
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
SPY Aug 28thI missed the opening pre mkt high (PMH) rejection (648 to 645) but remained patient and waited for buyers to enter at 645 demand, which is what happened. 1. As soon as it touched the 4 hour level (red line) I waited 15 minutes for the candles to hold above it to confirm that it was valid. Jumping in sooner could be a fake-out. 2. I entered and began trimming as it went up. 3. The tricky part was deciding to get out of ALL contracts or leave runners. Note. I'm testing the 20 EMA as my backup confirmation to the 9 EMA, so this time I kept several runners through the slight dip. In the past I would have gotten out completely and re-entered on the PMH retest, which isn't a bad strategy but I noticed panicking to always get out, left me with smaller profits. 4. I continued to trim all the way up to resistance (red line) for bigger profits. Excellent trade! Overall takeaway: A. Don't get mad & frustrated because you missed a move off the open. Wait for the next setup. B. Establishing valid levels on higher timeframes allows you to profit on intraday trades.
AMEX:SPY
by Allyvyne
SPY: RISK MODELING...📊 SPY Macro Risk Map | Positioning for Global Capital Flows The S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ) is testing premium levels near the 1.0 Fibonacci extension (649). My risk model highlights a potential liquidity sweep before deeper retracements toward the 0.786–0.702 zones (631–601). These levels represent equilibrium realignments where high-probability institutional accumulation often re-emerges. 🌍 Global Macro Alignment US Macro: Sticky inflation, Fed policy uncertainty, and fiscal imbalances may cap upside in the near term. Liquidity stress will likely fuel tactical drawdowns. UAE Positioning: Sovereign wealth capital (ADIA, Mubadala, ICD) is actively rotating into AI-driven infrastructure, global equity overlays, and commodity hedges. Their deep liquidity seeks asymmetric risk-adjusted returns while maintaining exposure to dollar assets. Capital Intelligence Play: By framing SPY drawdowns as structured entry opportunities, we align with UAE’s appetite for risk-managed US exposure—bridging tactical market volatility with long-term sovereign allocation needs. ⚖️ Risk Pathway Short-term rejection at premium zones → corrective wave toward 600–620 liquidity pockets. Potential macro catalyst alignment around October (IMF/WB meetings, Fed forward guidance). Re-accumulation phase into year-end, targeting 670+ if global liquidity stabilizes. 📌 Financial Intelligence Insight This is less about chasing trend tops and more about positioning in volatility as an entry vehicle. For UAE-based allocators, the current SPY setup is a live case study in tactical liquidity provision—risk is not avoided but engineered. 💡 Key takeaway: SPY is not just a chart—it’s a capital flow model. Anticipating global sovereign rotation allows us to build strategies that resonate with investors sitting on deep pools of capital.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Google Elliot Wave count adjustedNASDAQ:GOOGL appears to be completing a motif wave 3 with a push into all time high on overbought bearish divergence in the RSI. This would align with 2.618 Fibonacci extension target, a high probability ending point for wave 3. Wave 4 would be expected to terminate at the nested wave (4) which aligns with triple support - Daily Pivot, High Volume Node and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement. The ascending 200EMA may come to meet price at this point adding confluence. For now the trend remains up. Safe trading
AMEX:SPY
by Maddox_Metrics