Opening (IRA): SPY March 20th -550P... for a 5.75 credit.
Comments: Adding at intervals, assuming I can get in at prices better than what I current have on. Targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
I'm going out quite far dated here because I already have rungs on in December 31st (-642P), January (-605P, -625P), and February (-575P, -600P) expiries and didn't want to step on those as it were as I look to manage them via roll.
Trade ideas
QuantSignals V3 | SPY Speculative Call SetupSPY QuantSignals Katy 1M Prediction 2025-11-26
Current Price: $681.33
Target: $685–688 (short-term, based on recent resistance & trend)
Stop Loss: $678 (below immediate support)
Time Horizon: 1–3 days (since Katy AI shows low confidence and small expected move)
Rationale:
Katy AI shows NEUTRAL with low confidence (46.4%), meaning the AI isn’t strongly bearish—so a small bullish bias could play out.
Overall market sentiment (VIX ~20) suggests low-moderate volatility.
Small position sizing recommended due to low conviction.
⚠️ Risk Warning:
Low predicted movement means the probability of hitting your target is modest.
Short expiry or small move can result in quick losses if SPY dips even slightly.
Only allocate a small portion of your portfolio to this speculative call.
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Dec 4, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Dec 4, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🧱 Labor pulse before the weekend: Weekly claims remain a key gauge of cooling versus resilience in the labor market — especially with jobs data still disrupted from prior shutdown delays.
🎤 Bowman speaks at noon: Moderate-impact event, but tone on regulation, credit conditions, and inflation watch may move yields slightly in a light-data session.
📊 Key Data and Events (ET)
⏰ 8 30 AM
• Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 29): 220,000 vs 216,000
⏰ 12 00 PM
• Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman — Remarks
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #macro #labor #joblessclaims #fed #markets #stocks #trading #investing
No Bells Ring at a TopSo far, the stop zone was reached and they can go higher to make sure more bears are squeezed out of the market. I still think this is the end of a very large countertrend rally with a C wave down next into later December. I show some other sectors and a few stocks which should be important if are going to drop.
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 2, 2025 🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 2, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🎤 Bowman testimony hits at 10 AM — this is the only fixed macro event of the day, and her tone on regulation and economic conditions can nudge yields.
🚗 Auto Sales (Nov) TBA — release time unclear, but this report can move cyclicals if it prints far from expectations. Previous level was 16.4 million annualized.
📊 Key Data and Events (ET)
10 00 AM
• Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman — Testimony
TBA
• Auto Sales (Nov)
Previous: 16.4 million
Note: Release time is not announced
⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational use only, not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #stocks #macro #fed #autosales #markets #trading #investing
Quant signals V3 SPY Quick ForecastSPY QuantSignals Katy 1M Prediction 2025-12-01
QuantSignals Katy AI Stock Analysis
Analyzed 1 stock(s): SPY
SPY Analysis
Current Price: $678.97
Final Prediction: $680.48 (+0.22%)
30min Target: $683.03 (+0.60%)
Trend: NEUTRAL
Confidence: 40.0%
Volatility: 21.4%
Summary: Generated 0 trade signals from 1 successful analyses out of 1 symbols.
SPY Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the SPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 683.34
Bias - Bearish
Safe Stop Loss - 688.64
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 674.67
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPY: Will Keep Falling! Here is Why:
Balance of buyers and sellers on the SPY pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the sellers, therefore is it only natural that we go short on the pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
QS V3 SPY: Call Opportunity Amid Bullish Flow📅 Expiry: 2025-12-03 (same-day, 0DTE)
🎯 Direction: BUY CALLS (Speculative)
💵 Strike Focus: $680.00
💰 Entry Range: $2.64 – $2.70
📈 Target 1: $4.00 (~50% gain)
📈 Target 2: $5.34 (~100% gain)
🛑 Stop Loss: $1.60 (~40% loss)
📏 Position Size: 2% of portfolio
🧠 Analysis Summary:
Katy AI Signal: NEUTRAL summary, but detailed 390-point time series shows upward bias with predicted highs around $683.63 (+0.52%). Confidence: 50%.
Technical: Price slightly below VWAP (-0.23%), resistance at $683.84, support at $679.20. MACD bullish; STRONG TRENDING regime. Volume muted at 0.6x average.
Options Flow: Bearish (PCR 1.46) — heavy put activity indicates downside protection rather than strong directional conviction.
News Sentiment: Mixed; Trump tariff normalization creates uncertainty, but tech futures showing gains.
⚠️ Risk Level: HIGH
Conflicting signals: Neutral AI summary vs. upward trajectory in series.
Bearish options flow (PCR 1.46) vs. speculative call.
0DTE options = high gamma & rapid time decay; requires tight management.
💡 Competitive Edge:
Katy’s time series shows consistent upward movement despite neutral headline.
STRONG TRENDING regime supports potential call gains.
Afternoon peak (~15:46 ET) provides timing advantage.
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🧱 Growth check pre holiday: Weekly jobless claims and durable goods hit together at 8 30 AM, giving a clean read on labor and business demand.
📦 Capex and manufacturing pulse: The delayed September durable goods numbers update the heavy-industry side of the economy before year end.
📘 Fed Beige Book: Afternoon release colors in how businesses are actually feeling about demand, pricing, and hiring across districts.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8 30 AM
• Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22): 225,000 vs 220,000
• Durable Goods Orders (Sept, delayed): 0.5 percent vs 2.9
• Durable Goods ex Transportation (Sept, delayed): 0.4 percent
⏰ 2 00 PM
• Federal Reserve Beige Book — anecdotal read on growth, wages, and pricing
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #jobs #durablegoods #BeigeBook #stocks #bonds #markets #investing
Into the HolidaySPX likely pulls back today with a few stocks outperforming to the downside - AAPL and NVDA. VIX is at it's 18ma so it should at least bounce if not make another higher high. Gold up, but it looks corrective here. Oil and BTC probably more downside. Natural Gas looks like a short as well.
Bias still downSo far the rally looks very strong but keep in mind we have not broken above the daily 18ma, nor has the Vix broken under it's 18ma. Bias is still down and we are still making (so far) lower highs and lower lows. I believe this is a trap into tomorrow and I still think 645-640 will be the ultimate target.
SPY (30m) – NPC Volatility Zones After the FlushAfter the recent drawdown, SPY is transitioning from momentum decay → nonlinear stabilization inside the NeuroPolynomial Channel (NPC).
30m Statistical Position:
• Trading near NPC Core Cluster
• Distance from lower band: ~1.4%
• Distance from upper band: ~1.9%
• Compression vs prior leg: ~0.6
Volatility Map:
• Upper Expansion: +1.8% → +2.2%
• Core Zone: Current range
• Lower Reject Zone: −1.2%
• Breakdown Re-entry: −2.5%
Scenarios (not predictions):
Holding above core → mean rotation toward upper band.
Losing core → retest lower volatility band.
Structure + probability map only, not a trade call.
The week aheadWe possibly bottomed, but there are some SPX charts telling me one more low is a possibility into next week. Sunday night into Monday will be very telling. BTC is just floating around here - but can go lower to test it's low. Gold, probably lower at this point but still very choppy. Oil, maybe forming another low next week. Natural Gas looks like a good shorting opportunity for next week.
Weekly SPY (ES-US500-SPX) Outlook - Prediction (23 NOV)Weekly SPY (ES-US500-SPX) Outlook - Prediction
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is driven by fear at the moment. In my opinion, we are trading inside a bearish zone. Unless we get meaningful data or positive news, I expect the market to continue declining. Core PPI will be released on Tuesday at 08:30, which could create a small bullish reaction; however, I personally do not think this will shift overall sentiment. PPI is not a strong catalyst for a major sentiment change, so bearish conditions are likely to remain in play.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price ran 675.5, trapped the bulls, and then reversed sharply to the downside exactly as I anticipated in my previous weekly outlook. Price tapped 653 and bounced from that level, which aligned with Friday’s projection.
📌 Outlook – Prediction
Scenario 1 (Bearish Scenario):
I think this scenario is more likely early in the week. Price may retrace toward 633, which is a significant institutional liquidity pool for me. From there, price could gather energy for a higher expansion or bounce.
Scenario 2 (Bullish Scenario):
If price aggressively reprices back to 675, I will consider the bias short-term bullish. In that case, I will be buying after a retracement to 667.
Follow me for daily SPY–QQQ updates. I will update the idea based on evolving price action.
💬 For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile.
⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
Channel on SPYLooks like among all S&P500 charts channels work best on SPY. The price bounced right from the center of the big channel and now tests the bottom of the broken small channel. This is not the best resistance in the world. In fact chances that the index will fall to January-February peaks support area untill the end of this year are low, to be honest. But who knows, let's wait and see.
This idea is just a speculation based solely on trendlines. Need more data to support it.
SPY Direction: Short-term Bounce, Mid-term Risk of Lower High🟣 Weekly Candle
The weekly chart shows:
* A clear rejection near the upper trendline of the long-term channel
* Last week printed a bearish continuation candle (long upper wick, body closing lower)
* Momentum slowing after a strong rally
* Room below toward 612 – 613 zone, previous weekly demand
✅ Weekly bias: Pullback / corrective move
❗ Not a full trend reversal yet—still inside the big uptrend channel
🔵 Daily Chart
Daily price action confirms the weekly idea:
* Multiple CHoCH and BOS to the downside
* Price broke below the daily trend channel, then retested the underside
* Daily candle shows rejection from supply, not strength
* Demand below at:
* 660
* 652
* 612 major
The daily chart supports the idea that:
👉 SPY may form a lower high on the daily timeframe
👉 Bears have regained short-term control unless 680+ breaks cleanly
✅ Daily bias: Bearish toward 660–652 zone
🟠 1-Hour Chart
1H gives the timing:
* Recent rally stalled right at 1H supply + trendline retest
* CHoCH inside the supply area
* Weak volume on the push up
* EMA structure still bearish to neutral
* Multiple BOS down earlier in the move
This tells us:
👉 Buyers are reacting, not leading
👉 Sellers defending 669–672 zone aggressively
✅ 1H bias: Pullback into 660–655, possibly lower
🟢 GEX (Options Positioning)
This is the most important confirmation:
* Highest positive GEX / call resistance sits around 669–672
* Gamma flips negative below 660
* Huge put positioning below:
165 area is extreme, but near-term:
-65% put support zone begins around 655–650
GEX tells us:
👉 Market makers have incentive to pin SPY below 670
👉 If 660 breaks, dealers’ hedging flows can push price quickly toward 655–650
✅ GEX bias: Downside pressure unless 672 breaks
✅ Confluence Summary (Strongest Part)
All four charts point in the same direction:
Weekly: Rejection from top trendline → pullback likely
Daily: Lower high + CHoCH + supply rejection → bearish continuation
1H: Sellers defending supply → short-term weakness
GEX: Dealer positioning supports a move
669–672 resistance
660–655 magnet
🎯 Direction Call Based on the Charts
Most likely scenario:
➡️ SPY drifts lower into 660–655
If 655 fails:
➡️ Next downside target becomes 652
Then potential extended move to 612 if sentiment deteriorates
Bullish invalidation:
✅ Break and hold above 672
Would flip structure bullish again and target 689
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage your own risk and do your own research.






















