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$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 4, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 4, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Markets on edge after ADP + Beige Book — traders want to see if Thursday’s labor + growth data confirm a slowdown. 🏦 Treasury supply + Fed tone continue to steer $TLT/$TNX. ⚙️ Productivity & costs add another layer to the inflation debate. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Trade Balance (Jul) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q2, rev.) ⏰ 11:00 AM — Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #joblessclaims #labor #economy #bonds
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
SPY SEP 3rd 3 scenarios. No guessing. Just react. 🟢 Bull Case Trigger: Clears + holds 644 (PMH) ↳ Buyers show up, QQQ & NVDA strong, VIX chill. Play: • Long 644+ • Targets: 648 / 650 • Risk: <642 ⚖️ Chop Zone Trigger:Stuck 637–644 ↳ No real push either way, just range + noise. Play: • Scalp 637 → 644 • Light size or sit out • Avoid forcing 🔴 Bear Case Trigger: Loses 637 ↳ Volume picks up, VIX >17.5, macro weak. Play: • Short <637 • Targets: 634 / 630 • Risk: >639 🔍 Flow Clues • DP walls: 643–648 = tough resistance • Big puts stacked at 615/635 • Seasonality leans red ⚠️ 📌 TL;DR > 644+ = bulls push > 637–644 = chop zone > 637 = bears in charge
AMEX:SPYShort
by davekclinton76
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 3, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🏦 Traders bracing for a labor + Fed double header — ADP jobs and the Beige Book will steer rate-cut odds into Friday’s NFP. 📉 Stocks drifted Tuesday post-JOLTS miss — markets looking for confirmation of labor cooling. 💻 Tech earnings rotation continues — volatility in AMEX:XLK spilling into broader tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications ⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ADP Employment Report (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services PMI (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #ADP #BeigeBook #Fed #labor #ISM #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
SPY Technical Analysis-September 3SPY is rebounding strongly off the 633–634 demand zone, reclaiming ground after the recent selloff. Price is now pressing into the middle of the broader ascending channel, with momentum shifting back toward the bulls. * Resistance: The key zone sits at 644–647, where prior supply converges with the midline of the channel. This is also where sellers previously capped rallies. * Support: Immediate support lies at 640–641, the pivot level that bulls must defend. If this breaks, downside flows reopen toward 639 → 637 → 634. * Indicators: MACD has flipped bullish with rising histogram, showing positive momentum. Stoch RSI is overbought, suggesting some near-term exhaustion risk unless price pushes through resistance quickly. 🔍 Options / GEX Confirmation * Resistance: * 644–647 matches a heavy call wall cluster, confirming overhead resistance. * Dealers are short calls here, creating a ceiling unless broken with volume. * Support: * 641 aligns with the 3rd put wall and heavy negative gamma → if this level fails, hedging accelerates downside. * 637–634 confirmed as the next strong support band. This confirms the chart view: 641–647 is the critical battleground. 🎯 Trade Scenarios * Bullish: Hold above 641 and break through 647 with strong volume → upside opens toward 650–652. * Bearish: Failure at 644–647 or breakdown under 641 → downside targets 639 → 634. 🧠 Final Take SPY’s rebound has momentum, but the 644–647 zone is the make-or-break level. Clearing it would shift the bias back to the upside, targeting 650+. Failure to do so likely triggers a rejection and renewed selling pressure back toward 634.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
“From Mountain to Collapse: SPY Faces 630 Test”📖 Crown Point Research 1️⃣ Date & Time Date: 2nd September 2025 Time: Pre-Market | 09:15 PM IST 2️⃣ Fundamental News No major Fed statements or policy updates overnight. This move is purely structural: technical rejection at higher chambers + pre-payroll caution across markets. 3️⃣ Public Sentiment & Human Behaviour Retail psychology: Traders treated $640–645 as breakout continuation zones, rushing in. Institutional behaviour: Institutions sold into resistance, distributing supply near 645–650. Social Signal: Headlines still project bullish “market strength,” but structure = pullback, not extension. 4️⃣ Current Structure Macro Resistance: 645–650 Support: 630–628 Stage: Macro = Mountain Maturity → Exhaustion. Micro Resistance: 640–642 Support: 630 → 628 zone. Behaviour: Controlled pullbacks, failed rescues, collapse candles on intraday. 5️⃣ Projection Primary Path (65%): Continuation lower to $630–628 support. Alternate Path (25%): Bounce if $640 reclaimed, capped at $645. Low Path (10%): Breakout above $650 only with rescue event (policy or global shock). 6️⃣ Pullback Levels Shallow: $640–642 Medium: $635 Deep: $628 (critical Sea anchor zone). 7️⃣ Final View Bias: Bearish short-term → Path remains toward $630 unless $645+ 8️⃣ Essence (Philosophy Line) “Macro still near the Mountain, but microframes are in Collapse. Pullbacks are rebalances, not rescues. Until gates reopen, bearish flow dominates.” 9️⃣ Disclaimer ⚠️ This analysis is shared for educational and research purposes only. It is not financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendation. Market decisions are entirely your own responsibility.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Sturdy_Intraday_Trading
SPY washed away the Stops, and now rinse supportAt the U-MLH the air is very, very thin now. SPY is experience this and it looks like this market shows it's hand. It's the second time where the breakout failed. A classical Double-Top. Today SPY will open back into the Fork, which is a very bad sign for climbing markets. And if SPY can't close outside the Fork today, it would be a clear short to me. So, after the Wash of the Stops at the Top, what follows is the "Rinse" of the support level and then way down to the PTG1, the 1/4 line, and further to the PTG2 at the Center-Line.
AMEX:SPYShort
by HowToChart
2
SPY Aug 28thI missed the opening pre mkt high (PMH) rejection (648 to 645) but remained patient and waited for buyers to enter at 645 demand, which is what happened. 1. As soon as it touched the 4 hour level (red line) I waited 15 minutes for the candles to hold above it to confirm that it was valid. Jumping in sooner could be a fake-out. 2. I entered and began trimming as it went up. 3. The tricky part was deciding to get out of ALL contracts or leave runners. Note. I'm testing the 20 EMA as my backup confirmation to the 9 EMA, so this time I kept several runners through the slight dip. In the past I would have gotten out completely and re-entered on the PMH retest, which isn't a bad strategy but I noticed panicking to always get out, left me with smaller profits. 4. I continued to trim all the way up to resistance (red line) for bigger profits. Excellent trade! Overall takeaway: A. Don't get mad & frustrated because you missed a move off the open. Wait for the next setup. B. Establishing valid levels on higher timeframes allows you to profit on intraday trades.
AMEX:SPY
by Allyvyne
Consolidation and pullback before a new wave highSPY is at a 3-year-old upper resistance line at ATH. RSI and MACD have negative divergences, which indicate possible weakness and a potential cooling with an expected drop of the index. Possible cooling down to the 0.5 FIB retracement of the last wave, which would be very desirable and healthy for a further stronger rise of the stock market and the index. Advance decline line is at ATH, which is very bullish because it shows the strength of the index and indicates that there is still room for growth. Overall bullish, but cooling is needed, which I estimate with 80% certainty due to the above-mentioned factors
AMEX:SPYLong
by Consistent_Trades
SPY: RISK MODELING...📊 SPY Macro Risk Map | Positioning for Global Capital Flows The S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ) is testing premium levels near the 1.0 Fibonacci extension (649). My risk model highlights a potential liquidity sweep before deeper retracements toward the 0.786–0.702 zones (631–601). These levels represent equilibrium realignments where high-probability institutional accumulation often re-emerges. 🌍 Global Macro Alignment US Macro: Sticky inflation, Fed policy uncertainty, and fiscal imbalances may cap upside in the near term. Liquidity stress will likely fuel tactical drawdowns. UAE Positioning: Sovereign wealth capital (ADIA, Mubadala, ICD) is actively rotating into AI-driven infrastructure, global equity overlays, and commodity hedges. Their deep liquidity seeks asymmetric risk-adjusted returns while maintaining exposure to dollar assets. Capital Intelligence Play: By framing SPY drawdowns as structured entry opportunities, we align with UAE’s appetite for risk-managed US exposure—bridging tactical market volatility with long-term sovereign allocation needs. ⚖️ Risk Pathway Short-term rejection at premium zones → corrective wave toward 600–620 liquidity pockets. Potential macro catalyst alignment around October (IMF/WB meetings, Fed forward guidance). Re-accumulation phase into year-end, targeting 670+ if global liquidity stabilizes. 📌 Financial Intelligence Insight This is less about chasing trend tops and more about positioning in volatility as an entry vehicle. For UAE-based allocators, the current SPY setup is a live case study in tactical liquidity provision—risk is not avoided but engineered. 💡 Key takeaway: SPY is not just a chart—it’s a capital flow model. Anticipating global sovereign rotation allows us to build strategies that resonate with investors sitting on deep pools of capital.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SPY Retesting An 18 Year Long CeilingPrice has remained in this channel since the 2008 Recession, and we have finally reached the upper channel once again. Ask yourself, with all things considered, is the current state of the American economy truly well enough off that we could see a strong breakout, and then witness a parabolic rally upwards? My opinion is a resounding NO. This bullish rebound rally that this market has shown in the past 5 months since the March/April crash won't be sustainable for the long run, and the fact that it's been a melt upwards with such low volume is a telling sign. I am expecting a 30%-40% drop within the next 6-7 months-as early as Q4 this before year's end, or no later than the end of Q1 next year.
AMEX:SPYShort
by CJBlueNorther
6
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🔥 Fed’s favorite inflation gauge hits: PCE arrives just as markets digest Powell’s Jackson Hole tone. 💵 Consumer under the microscope: Spending & income data reveal demand strength heading into fall. 🏭 Regional PMI wrap: Chicago PMI closes out August with a manufacturing pulse check. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — PCE Price Index (Jul) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Personal Income & Outlays (Jul) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PCE #inflation #Fed #bonds #economy #PMI #consumerconfidence
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
What no one will reveal to you about volume. Theory and PracticeFor Richard W. Schabacker, whom I consider the father of Technical Analysis in the West, rigorous technical analysis must combine the study of price and volume. Paradoxically, volume was the last piece of data I effectively integrated into my trading, due to the scarcity of practical information. In this article, I will explore the classical view of using volume and then my personal approach, based on logic and accumulated experience. Whether you are a novice or an expert in the markets, and whether or not you use volume to clarify your analyses, reading this article will enrich your perspective on this topic. The Ichimoku indicator values displayed on the screen are personal variations, resulting from my research. I hope they are useful to you. What is Volume? In the context of financial markets, volume represents the number of shares, contracts, or lots traded in an asset over a specific period of time. Volume reflects the intensity of market activity and is represented as a histogram just below the price chart. "Volume is a relative matter; that is, when we speak of high volume, we refer to a transaction volume greater than what has prevailed for some time before." — Richard W. Schabacker, Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits Classical View of Volume: Generally, the main proponents inShannon proponents in this discipline see volume as useful for the following purposes: 1. Confirming the Strength of a Trend: Volume should accompany the strength of a trend, and if volume is weak, it is likely that we can anticipate a reversal, as low volumes in a trend indicate a loss of interest among participants. 2. Analyzing Support and Resistance: Most major proponents tend to view weak volume as a signal for potential reversals, while recommending validating breakouts of support and resistance with increased volume. 3. Analyzing Continuation or Exhaustion Patterns: The classical approach suggests that before entering continuation or exhaustion patterns (such as accumulations, distributions, head and shoulders, double tops and bottoms, triangles, etc.), there should be a depletion of volume, followed by a breakout of the pattern with a significant increase in volume to confirm the presence of participant interest. This approach is solid in theory, but in practice, it can lead to subjective interpretations and errors if not properly contextualized. Personal View: May the Force Be with You In my experience, volume should not be primarily interpreted by observing weakness, as this can lead to misreadings and premature market entries. Instead, I recommend focusing on detecting strength as the decisive factor. High volume reveals the massive entry of participants or large orders—whether from large investors or institutions—leaving a clear footprint in the market. These large orders, whether buy or sell, indicate real commitment and potential for sustained movements. On Volume and Trend Analysis: Why base a reversal on the weakness of a trend when the key is to identify the context and strength driving the change? A clearly weakened price action backed by low volumes can extend in the direction of the trend, draining our accounts if we base our entries on volume weakness. Whether trading with or against the trend, the turning point must be supported by robust volume. This spike in activity confirms the presence of large investors or institutions in action, translating into greater interest and liquidity. As technical analysts, our goal is to capture fluctuations or trends, not to diagnose whether a trend is "healthy." Weakness is relevant information for detecting exhaustion, but it is strength, in the right context and with proper confirmation (through patterns), that will increase our success rate and improve our risk-reward ratio. In Figure 1.1, we can see how volume spikes generally predict pauses or reversals in trends. Figure 1.1 Tesla. Daily Chart In Figure 1.2, we can observe how weak volume could indicate a loss of interest from participants (1 and 2), but it is an increase in volume combined with a Japanese candlestick pattern (3) that can confirm a likely effective entry. Figure 1.2 BTC/USDT Daily Chart On Volume in Support and Resistance Analysis: As mentioned earlier, weakness is relevant information, but strength is essential to validate a trend reversal or continuation. According to the classical approach, a breakout of support or resistance should be backed by a significant increase in volume. However, experience has taught me that the high volume detected during a breakout often represents common bull or bear traps, where buyers or sellers get trapped. There are several reasons for this: supports and resistances are psychological zones that are constantly evolving, making it easy to confuse breakout volume with rejection volume. Additionally, during breakouts of significant supports or resistances, large institutions often manipulate or protect their positions by executing large buy or sell orders. How can we avoid falling into bull or bear traps, or even use them to our advantage? Personally, I recommend not seeking breakouts of supports and resistances based on volume. Price compressions around supports and resistances are more useful for this purpose, as they reveal the intent and dominance of buyers or sellers while offering a superior risk-reward ratio. High volumes generally indicate rejection, even if the zone appears to have been broken. Without prior compression—or accumulation or distribution—it is never advisable to chase breakouts. In Figure 1.3, we can observe two phenomena in one: the breakout of a consolidation pattern and the breakout of a resistance ($110,000) following a price compression (3). Notice how buying forces intensely defended the $100,000 zone, as evidenced by volume spikes and large engulfing patterns that preceded them (1 and 2). The price compression at the $110,000 zone reveals the bullish intent to break the resistance in a context where buying strength is dominant. On the other hand, in Figure 1.4, I show you what a bear trap looks like. Observe how what appears to be a confirmed breakout with volume at a defended support level ended up being a significant rejection by large investors or institutions (1). At this point, I will make two clarifications: The volume histogram is represented with colors on some investment platforms to facilitate the visual detection of patterns, but volumes themselves do not have color. Whether a volume is bullish or bearish does not depend on whether the accompanying candlestick is bullish or bearish, but rather on the real-time interpretation of the technical analyst and, above all, on the subsequent development of events. In the example of the false breakout in Figure 1.4, we observe a bullish rejection volume. Another vital aspect is that supports in strong and healthy uptrends will generate more false breakouts than reliable ones, so I recommend taking more long entries. Additionally, during the euphoria and hope characteristic of a bullish market, short entries will be extremely risky. In the articles “Bear and Bull Traps” and “Double Pressure: The Key to Successful Breakout Trading,” I describe these phenomena in detail. Figure 1.3 BTC/USDT Daily Chart Figure 1.4 BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart On Volume in Continuation or Exhaustion Patterns: While it is often recommended to ensure a decrease in volume prior to the breakout of an exhaustion pattern, I recommend ensuring the detection of large volumes within the exhaustion pattern itself and confirming entries based on price compressions at the boundaries of the accumulation or distribution range. Large volumes in continuation or exhaustion patterns indicate that many participants or strong institutions are partially or fully closing their buy or sell positions, which can lead to a correction. Even investors like Thomas Bulkowski have noted that the success rate increases in patterns where large volumes are present. On the other hand, contrary to the classical approach, I recommend avoiding confirming entries based on pattern breakouts with large volume, as exhaustion and trend continuation patterns often generate strong bursts of volatility. In the best case, this may cause you to miss the trend, but in the worst case, it will expose you to entries with poor risk-reward ratios. Price compressions are a safer option for making entries and capitalizing on volatility bursts. In Figure 1.5, you can observe the effectiveness of price compressions in the right context and how volume is a key factor in determining the presence of large investors. Figure 1.5 BTC/USDT Daily Chart Some Additional Examples: An ABCD pattern offers excellent opportunities to take entries based on volume, always with confirmation from price action. In Figure 1.6, you will observe how I would effectively use bear traps (D), which are very common in strong uptrends. Figure 1.6 BTC/USDT Daily Chart Relevant Data on Volume: Volume in Forex and CFDs Both the Forex market (currencies) and CFDs (contracts for difference) operate in a decentralized, over-the-counter (OTC) manner, meaning there is no centralized exchange where all trading volume is recorded. In Forex, the volume displayed on platforms does not represent the "true" total volume of the global market, but rather the flow of trades within the liquidity pool of the broker or its liquidity providers. CFDs, being OTC derivatives offered by brokers, follow the same pattern: the visible volume is specific to the broker and its liquidity network, not the total volume of the underlying market. Brokers aggregate liquidity from multiple providers (such as banks or dark pools), but traders only see a fraction of this, which may not reflect the actual volume of the underlying asset (e.g., a CFD on stocks does not show the total volume of the stock exchange). Volume in Centralized Stock Exchanges Stock markets like the NYSE are centralized, meaning all transactions are executed and recorded on a single regulated exchange. This allows for consolidated, real-time reporting of the total volume of shares traded on that exchange. The volume reflects all executed trades, including the total number of shares bought and sold. Under strict regulation, the data is standardized, audited, and publicly accessible. Volume in the Cryptocurrency Market The cryptocurrency market is decentralized and fragmented, similar to Forex: transactions occur across multiple global exchanges (such as Binance or Coinbase) without a unified central record. This makes the total volume an aggregation of data reported by each platform, introducing inconsistencies and potential manipulations. Personally, I recommend prioritizing data from Binance, as it consistently leads in spot and derivatives trading volume globally, representing a significant portion of the market (approximately 30-40% in recent aggregated metrics). Volume and the S&P 500 Although the S&P 500 index, being a composite indicator and not a tradable asset itself, does not record transaction volume, a smart strategy for analyzing volume related to this index involves monitoring the trading volume of the SPY ETF (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust). This exchange-traded fund closely tracks the performance of the S&P 500 and attracts a high level of trading activity, providing a valuable metric for assessing market interest, liquidity, and potential volume patterns during bullish or bearish trends. In Figures 1.7 and 1.8, you can see how S&P 500 readings can be cleverly combined with SPY volume data. Figure 1.7 S&P 500 Daily Chart Figure 1.8 SPY Daily Chart Final Note: If you’d like to take a look at my analysis record, you can check out my profile in Spanish, where I transparently share well-defined market entries. Send your good vibes if you enjoyed this article, and may God bless you all.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Especulador96