MSTR - Trendline Support vs. Supply Cap!MSTR has been overall bullish on the daily, respecting a rising trendline since last year. Price is coiling right beneath the 330–350 supply band after multiple rejections.
This area is key 🔑. It overlaps prior supply and the rising trendline—clean confluence. If bulls defend the trendline and we see a clean daily close above 350, momentum could extend toward 400 first, then 470–520 inside the broader range 🚀.
If the trendline gives way, I’ll look for a deeper dip toward 260–240 demand before bulls try again. Until then, structure favors the upside while the line holds.
What’s your plan => buy strength above 350 or wait for a retest on the trendline first? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
STRC trade ideas
MSTR....set-up not looking goodNASDAQ:MSTR is below 9, 50, 200SMA! That's about the clearest red flag you can see. There could be some volatility, but would be very careful as it crosses down 330, 300 and then possibly the next support line is further down as people dump hard. CBOE:MSTZ is a nice inverse play here! Best of luck
BTC Exhaustion at $100K Could Trigger $MSTR Structural WeaknessI’ve been tracking Bitcoin’s price action, and buyers look exhausted at these levels. Since July, BTC has been topping out. There’s strong support at the $100K area — with the 200MA right around $103K — this zone is the battleground. If buyers lose it, we’re looking at a possible break of structure at $100K.
We all know NASDAQ:MSTR isn’t really a software company anymore — it’s basically a Bitcoin Treasury play. The model is simple: raise capital (debt, equity), buy more BTC, repeat. That means if BTC breaks lower, MSTR usually gets hit even harder. Leverage cuts both ways.
For me, $317 is the key level. If MSTR loses that, I’m targeting $300. I’ve already picked up some long puts at the $295 strike. My rule: if the premium drops 30%, I cut it as a wrong play. If it holds, I’ll ride it until it’s at-the-money.
As always — manage risk like your survival depends on it. Because it does.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Technical Analysis – September 2025 Technical Outlook:
• The stock is currently trading around $344 after a solid bounce from a key demand zone at $300 – $320.
• The MACD indicator shows a recent bullish crossover, with green histogram bars starting to form → signaling a potential continuation of upward momentum.
• On the daily chart, the first resistance zone is at $400 – $405, followed by an extended target at $440.
Trade Setup (Swing Idea):
• Entry Zone: $340 – $345.
• Stop Loss: Below $290 (a breakdown would invalidate the bullish setup).
• Targets:
• TP1: $400 (partial take-profit).
• TP2: $405.
• TP3: $440.
The Risk/Reward ratio (RRR) is attractive here (above 2:1).
Analysts’ View:
• Most analysts rate MSTR as Strong Buy / Buy.
• The 12-month price targets range between $530 – $600, with some optimistic projections going as high as $700.
• Key risk: MSTR’s performance is highly correlated with Bitcoin (BTC). Any strong BTC retracement could weigh heavily on the stock.
Conclusion:
MicroStrategy shows bullish technical signals after rebounding from strong support, supported by momentum indicators and positive analyst outlook.
Still, strict risk management is crucial, given the stock’s volatility and its dependence on Bitcoin’s price movements.
Breaking: MicroStrategy’s Price Action Signals Key Recovery AheaCurrent Price: $344.75
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $364.50
- T2 = $385.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $332.00
- S2 = $318.50
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that the aggregated market perspectives on MicroStrategy highlight a clear path for potential upside, supported by informed consensus and reduced cognitive bias.
**Key Insights:**
MicroStrategy’s strategic alignment with Bitcoin continues to attract investor attention as the cryptocurrency market shows signs of stabilization in 2025. The firm holds the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury globally—a position that amplifies its sensitivity to BTC price movements but also provides outsized returns during bullish periods. The company’s ongoing emphasis on expanding its business intelligence solutions aligns with broader enterprise adoption trends, delivering incremental revenue streams beyond Bitcoin’s ecosystem.
From a technical perspective, the recent consolidation near $340 has built a strong base of support with increasing trade volume, suggesting positive accumulation by institutional investors. MicroStrategy’s price is approaching its 50-day moving average, which signals momentum improving and reflects a reversal pattern that could pave the way for sustained bullish advances.
**Recent Performance:**
Over the last quarter, MicroStrategy has demonstrated resilience, maintaining stability near critical support levels even amidst fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. Year-to-date, the stock has gained approximately 35%, outperforming broader technology and analytics peers. Recent sessions highlight gradual upward movement, with the price moving within a defined range between $330 and $350, subtly hinting at a breakout scenario. Today’s closing price of $344.75 represents a 2% gain from last week’s low of $338.
**Expert Analysis:**
Technical analysts emphasize that MicroStrategy’s long-term price trajectory remains highly correlated with Bitcoin’s price cycle. However, experts predict a favorable near-term outlook given Bitcoin’s recent upward trajectory towards $27,000 in September 2025. Fundamentally, appreciation in MicroStrategy stock reflects confidence among shareholders in the company’s unique Bitcoin-first treasury philosophy, alongside improved earnings guidance driven by its core analytics platform.
On the technical front, analysts point to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising above 50, signaling bullish momentum. Additionally, the stock is forming higher lows on the daily chart—a sign of buyers stepping in at stronger levels, further validating entry into LONG positions.
**News Impact:**
Recent headlines reveal that MicroStrategy has increased its Bitcoin holdings, purchasing an additional $147 million worth during Q3 2025. This aggressive acquisition could reinforce its position as a leader in corporate cryptocurrency adoption. Positive sentiment stemming from this announcement aligns with growing global acceptance of Bitcoin as institutional liquidity strengthens. Moreover, MicroStrategy’s leadership team has reiterated optimism for business intelligence growth, which could cushion short-term operational risks independent of cryptocurrency volatility.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Given MicroStrategy’s strong correlation with Bitcoin, its demonstrated resilience, and promising technical signals, traders should consider a LONG position at the current price of $344.75. The operational diversification strategy and Bitcoin’s steady recovery create bullish tailwinds that provide clear upside targets. Set stops at $332.00 and $318.50 to protect against adverse price movements, while targeting $364.50 and $385.00 for potential gains in the medium term.
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MSTR further winding up with a 1-2 1-2 1-2? Looks like MSTR might have just finished and ending diagonal for another wave c of 2. This could also just be a 1-2 1-2 still but so far counting it as a 1-2 1-2 1-2.
Either way, it looks like it is ready to rip to 380. Will see in the next couple of sessions how this plays out.
down trend looks to rejoin 300 as the trend continuesUnless we see a significant breakaway from the descending triangle, it could widen and turn to symmetrical which aligns in with the ascending line set to rejoin its pattern. That could be a major shift if it bounces off resistance on the current pattern first.
MSTR - pattern and downtrend breakoutMSTR - Stock held $320 support level multiple times and now breaking out of triangle pattern. Calls looking good as long as $335 holds for a move towards $350 and higher. Stock is decent at the indicator level. rate cut tomorrow could push the bitcoin and the stock higher.
$MSTR Must Close This Week Above the 50WMA Or Else...The MicroStrategy chart is the only top signal that is somewhat cause for concern at the current moment.
You can see NASDAQ:MSTR has closed the past several weeks below the 50WMA, which signaled the start of the bear market last cycle.
Having said that, it has had a bullish rally this week and is trading above the 50WMA once again.
MSTR must close the week above this level, otherwise the stock could be in for a much deeper correction, which could negatively affect CRYPTOCAP:BTC in October.
Where have you heard that October prediction before?
Coincidence? 🥸
The Next Big Crypto Trade Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline following a failed auction attempt after sweeping all-time high liquidity. This move is now being followed by a significant retracement toward the lower boundary of the broader range, with the current range low positioned around $111K.
In contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has exhibited a more structurally defined downtrend, having broken below its previous pivot low. This price action potentially forms a textbook ABC corrective pattern, with the 1:1 extension target clearly identifiable.
Should the broader market continue to decline in the lead-up to this week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s remarks, a compelling long setup may emerge. This could coincide with a potential 'sell-the-news' reaction, particularly if the Federal Reserve moves to cut interest rates.
Rate-sensitive equities and assets may initially respond to such news with bullish enthusiasm, possibly triggering a wave of market euphoria and leading to a short squeeze scenario.
I’m closely monitoring the $320 level on MSTR, which aligns with three key technical confluences:
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the overall move (swing low to swing high).
The 1:1 extension target of the possible ABC corrective structure.
A key support/resistance flip zone, which may mark a potential structural pivot point.
This zone presents a high-probability area for potential price reaction. Let’s see how this plays out.
$MSTR to push above $400 again?NASDAQ:MSTR had it's 3rd touch off this blue trend line and usually when it does that, it forms a strong move in the other direction.
As long as this trend line holds, I think it's likely that we can see a move back above $400.
I've marked off key levels as resistance.
Took calls between $367.5 and $410.
$MSTR Falling Below the 50WMA in 2021 Bull Market Here's a look at last cycle where NASDAQ:MSTR trading under the 50WMA for several weeks led to the CRYPTOCAP:BTC bear market.
The reason why this was so significant last cycle is because they were responsible for such a large share of BTC buy pressure.
This cycle we have lots of other treasury companies, with many more to come, as well as ETFs of course, so I'm not as concerned with this PA.
a megaphone over 500A good signal right on time was Powell saying he would change his monetary policy (he said he would adjust it). Then Bitcoin and all the equities hurt by the recent drops resumed the solid uptrend we’ve been seeing. They came back to consolidate technical levels and give us new highs. In the case of MSTR, we can see the formation of a megaphone pattern that could take us above 500 USD.
MicroStrategy's Chart Patterns Indicate Strong Bullish Breakout Current Price: $331.44
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $350.00
- T2 = $375.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $315.00
- S2 = $300.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in MicroStrategy.
**Key Insights:**
MicroStrategy has recently captured significant momentum, driven by its strategic focus on Bitcoin holdings and continued operational scaling. The company, actively engaging with cryptocurrency investments, benefits from both asset appreciation and its pioneering role in enterprise adoption of digital assets. Traders are paying close attention to MicroStrategy’s direct correlation to Bitcoin’s price movements, which provide it with additional volatility and speculative trading potential.
From a technical perspective, the stock is poised just below a key resistance zone near $335. A confirmed breakout above this level could catalyze further buying interest, aligning with strong upward momentum displayed in recent trading sessions. MicroStrategy’s alignment with the cryptocurrency sector makes it a preferred equity among institutional and speculative investors, providing liquidity and exciting price action.
**Recent Performance:**
Over the past month, MicroStrategy has steadily climbed from a low of around $280 to its current level, gaining upward momentum alongside a resurgent Bitcoin market. Volumes have been steadily increasing, indicating growing investor interest. The stock remains volatile, offering attractive opportunities for traders seeking to capitalize on breakout trades.
**Expert Analysis:**
Market strategists view MicroStrategy as a proxy for Bitcoin, with its valuation tying broadly to Bitcoin’s performance due to the company’s aggressive accumulation strategy. Over the medium term, analysts believe the stock could deliver significant gains as long as macroeconomic conditions continue to stabilize and Bitcoin sustains upward trends. On the charts, MicroStrategy has formed a classic ascending triangle pattern, a bullish technical structure suggesting the potential for a breakout. RSI (Relative Strength Index) is approaching but not yet breaching overbought levels, indicating there may be further room for upside growth.
**News Impact:**
Recent bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency space, particularly with expectations of potential regulatory advancements and broader institutional adoption of Bitcoin, has added tailwinds to MicroStrategy. The company’s reputation as a corporate Bitcoin whale has cemented its position as a major beneficiary of positive news cycles affecting digital assets. Should Bitcoin continue its upward trend, MicroStrategy is likely to see corresponding gains.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Based on the confluence of technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic factors, MicroStrategy presents a strong LONG opportunity at its current price. Traders should monitor key resistance at $335 closely, as a confirmed breakout past this level could accelerate the stock toward the initial target of $350, with $375 being the next logical extension. The stop-loss levels at $315 and $300 ensure risk is managed appropriately in the event of sharp reversals. This trade is suitable for traders comfortable with volatility and those looking to gain indirect exposure to Bitcoin through equities.
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MSTR - Here comes #5 at the CenterlineRemember when I said, I do it again Sam?
Nothing changed. Only the price in the consolidation at P4.
This will temporarily end at P5 (Yellow Count), where I'll take my profit. With a little pressure, price will even make it to the L-MLH.
Then I'll relax and watch, how the Chickens run around and create new opportunity. 🐔🐓
Don't be a Chicken, be the 🦊 Fox 🦊, be clever and have patience.
Happy new week all §8-)
Is $MSTR only game in town? Charts seem to disagree. NASDAQ:MSTR was the first CRYPTOCAP:BTC treasury company in Wall Street. It provided the leverage required on the price by CRYPTOCAP:BTC by borrowing against its balance sheet and buying $BTC. This has worked well for Strategy as it was the only game in the town. But not anymore. With new Crypto treasury company coming to the public every single day and CRYPTOCAP:BTC treasury companies in abundance the attractiveness of NASDAQ:MSTR is decreasing.
In the chart below we check NASDAQ:MSTR stock price vs BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and see that it peaked in Nov 2024. Since then, it is a series of lower highs and lower lows. The downward sloping channel also makes things complicated for the stock in the mid-term. Just on the weekly there is some support in the chart between 0.0026 and 0.0021. This also happens to be between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fib retracement levels.
My assessment is we can see some support at 0.618 Fib levels but make no mistake if Crypto bear market comes in 2026 – 2027 then the ratio chart can visit the all-time lows of 0.0007.
Verdict: NASDAQ:MSTR / $ BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is in clear downturn. It can find support at 0.618 Fib retracement level. Ratio can visit the cycle lows of 0.0007.
MSTR ZONES OF CONFLUENCECalled this out some time back. Sometimes MSTR gives the cleanest setups on where price is headed as the Mnav and its tradable premium to Bitcoin decouple - a result of shareholder dilution, CAMT tax obligations, as well as interest payments on its preferred. Because of this, riding the down trend is clear and easy until respectfully breaks the upper threshold of support turned resistance - 360.
$MSTR trade to the upside? $375-395?NASDAQ:MSTR looks to be turning bullish here on small timeframes. We've broken out of the down trend line and look to be turning up for a move towards the resistances above.
I think we can potentially make it all the way up to $395 on this move to retest the area it broke down from.
However, that $375 area is also an area that can provide strong resistance.
Let's see how it plays out.