micro strat impulsive move to the upsidfe !!highly spec, fractal playing out could see an upswing to the 14-16k range, only bouted on how BTC plays out....
STRD trade ideas
Bearish MSTR is temporary; Rise to more than 412$ in the future.As it's obvious, MSTR has broken it's bullish trendline and a great pullback has happened. I believe after breaking a support at 293$, It will head toward 239$ then will rise and break the bearish trendline. After surpassing the 293$ resistance, It will catch 412$. Also it's evident that buying crypto by Michael Saylor can improve the stock price.
MSTR - Here comes #5 at the CenterlineRemember when I said, I do it again Sam?
Nothing changed. Only the price in the consolidation at P4.
This will temporarily end at P5 (Yellow Count), where I'll take my profit. With a little pressure, price will even make it to the L-MLH.
Then I'll relax and watch, how the Chickens run around and create new opportunity. 🐔🐓
Don't be a Chicken, be the 🦊 Fox 🦊, be clever and have patience.
Happy new week all §8-)
a megaphone over 500A good signal right on time was Powell saying he would change his monetary policy (he said he would adjust it). Then Bitcoin and all the equities hurt by the recent drops resumed the solid uptrend we’ve been seeing. They came back to consolidate technical levels and give us new highs. In the case of MSTR, we can see the formation of a megaphone pattern that could take us above 500 USD.
338.65This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service
Time to fill up the MSTR bags!Bitcoin is ready to pump. Powell is really to lower the rates.
It might feel scary right now but this is the time where the money is being earned.
It's just my idea. No financial advice :)
$MSTR Testing Historical Key Support at 200DMAMicroStrategy had its largest daily close below the 200DMA in the past 893 days.
Historically this support level has market key bottoms.
RSI allows for a bit more pain to the downside, but NASDAQ:MSTR should find a bottom soon.
If not, $305 is in play.
Buy the F out of MSTR? - Bullish IdeaI’m watching MicroStrategy (MSTR) closely here — the chart is setting up for what looks like a strong bullish opportunity.
(the content below is documenting the chart from left to right)
🔎 Key Observations
Demand Zone: Back in August 2024, price reacted strongly from the $225 zone, rallying ~100%. Clear evidence of institutional demand.
Current Structure: Price has been ranging between $225 – $550. The midpoint zone (~$325–$375) is where the most important reactions are likely to form.
Volume Zones:
Zone A → Already tested.
Zone B → Untested, showing potential bullish reaction.
Zone C → Looks bearish on the surface, but could be a manipulation zone (push down to fill institutional orders).
Liquidity Sweep: The purple zone shows price ran weekly highs, reversed, then closed back above — a classic liquidity grab, suggesting institutions may defend this area.
🧩 Market Structure & Pattern
Structure shows a bullish impulse with a crab pattern forming.
Completion expected around 50–61.8% retracement, possibly as deep as 78.6%.
Buy zone of interest: $325.
🎯 Trade Plan
Entry Zone: $325 area.
Targets:
First resistance: $375–$400 (must clear here).
Final target: $550.
Bias: Bullish, holding for continuation higher as long as $225 remains protected.
✅ To summarize: I’m bullish on MicroStrategy here. Watching for a buy reaction around $325 with a target of $550. Price will need to prove itself through the $375–$400 zone before continuation.
$MSTR: Long term bullish trendNASDAQ:MSTR long term signal triggered...
Up trend in monthly scale until end of 2025.
Heard it here first, lads.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
8/19/25 - $strc - :)8/19/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:STRC
:)
- the fud around saylor and mstr expose how many ppl have done deep thinking about his capital stack. many are chitcoin' moonbois
- the reality is, STRC is a game changing product (it's a financial nuclear bomb to the japanese financial system when metaplanet launches it)
- but it's a 10% yielding 5x collateralized callable perp
- a better dollar
- so when you need to hand sit, may as well pay yourself in something better than t-bills
- yuh volatility.
- but again. do your homework
V
The Next Big Crypto Trade Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline following a failed auction attempt after sweeping all-time high liquidity. This move is now being followed by a significant retracement toward the lower boundary of the broader range, with the current range low positioned around $111K.
In contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has exhibited a more structurally defined downtrend, having broken below its previous pivot low. This price action potentially forms a textbook ABC corrective pattern, with the 1:1 extension target clearly identifiable.
Should the broader market continue to decline in the lead-up to this week’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s remarks, a compelling long setup may emerge. This could coincide with a potential 'sell-the-news' reaction, particularly if the Federal Reserve moves to cut interest rates.
Rate-sensitive equities and assets may initially respond to such news with bullish enthusiasm, possibly triggering a wave of market euphoria and leading to a short squeeze scenario.
I’m closely monitoring the $320 level on MSTR, which aligns with three key technical confluences:
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the overall move (swing low to swing high).
The 1:1 extension target of the possible ABC corrective structure.
A key support/resistance flip zone, which may mark a potential structural pivot point.
This zone presents a high-probability area for potential price reaction. Let’s see how this plays out.
MSTR still bullish. MSTR bullishness is still intact but it should close above the upper yellow line for the bullishness confirmation intact. If that happens then there's a big possibility that we will see a big sharp last parabolic run to new ATH. Of course this is not financial advised.
If this failed then the last hope is on the Red Line.
MSTR Bottoming Soon?NASDAQ:MSTR continues to range while weekly RSI heads into oversold without a significant pullback, a good sign for a bullish long term outlook.
My downside target for this move remains the High Volume Node, weekly pivot and golden ratio Fibonacci retracement at $290.
The R3 weekly pivot is a solid terminal target at $1039 but could overextend in an irrational environment.
Analysis is invalidated below wave (IV)
Safe trading
MSTR Headed to Balance Sheet Insolvency?If my wave forecast is correct and BTC trades down toward $23K (ie. 80% log retracement level of the 2023-2025 bull run), MicroStrategy (Strategy) becomes balance sheet insolvent: liabilities (convertible debt + preferreds like STRK/STRF/STRD/STRC) would exceed assets.
That doesn’t mean automatic bankruptcy. Their convertibles only cost ~$35M/yr in interest, and even with ~$550–$680M/yr on ~$6.43B at 8–10% in preferred dividends layered on top, they can still cover fixed obligations short-term by liquidating BTC or issuing more equity. That keeps them out of Chapter 11 in the near term.
But the trade-off is ugly:
Massive dilution from issuing stock at distressed prices, or
Selling BTC at $23K just to stay afloat.
The real problem is the refinancing wall starting late 2027. With equity wiped on paper and ~$1.1B coming due by early 2028, any refinancing deal will be extremely punitive, handing creditors cheap equity or forcing fire-sale BTC disposals.
Market pricing implication:
Equity = option value only.
Common stock would likely collapse into deeply distressed single digits (<$10), well below NAV, because shareholders sit behind $8.2B in converts and $6.4B+ in high-yield preferreds.
So even if BTC really does retrace all the way to $23k, MSTR doesn’t go to $0 right away, but the stock trades like a distressed, over-leveraged call option on Bitcoin, with survival depending entirely on a rebound before maturities hit.
BTC Forecast:
MSTR Finished Flat and Ready for BounceJust hit 61.8% retracement of the recent pop up. It looks like 3 off the bottom but the recent bounce was off A=C from the July 16th drop after 5 waves up. Will know today or tomorrow if this plays out or it keeps dropping.
MSTRMSTR MNAV for the moment is bearish and it could down until 1.1-0.7 MNAV if BTC begins a bearish market that could affect MSTR MNAV and MSTR price to a lower level between 160$-80$ as occur in 2022 bear market dropping more than 85% on price and 0.7 on MNAV level. MSTR is a volatile stock and it should be treated as high risk trade. No financial advice.
MicroStrategy Head And Shoulders Signals further downsideThe H&S pattern on the daily timeframe signals potential further downside relating to this current corrective period. Investors should beware of the diminishing volume on rallies and increasing volume in declines spurring a change in trend.
Targets for the Head And Shoulders pattern is the length of the head to the valley of the right shoulder.
MSTR Ponzi is paying for my yearly steak & lobster subscriptionWe can see that from the white Centerline, MSTR has only been heading south. In contrast, Bitcoin has held up quite a bit better so far.
If you go back through my posts, you’ll see that I’ve been warning for a long time that MSTR is basically feeding itself. That simply can’t end well!
Either way – we gratefully take our profit and wait until we reach the lower centerline. Because we know there’s about an 80% chance that the price will fall back into temporary equilibrium, the Centerline
And if you’re not too greedy, well then you take 70%–80% of the profits now and let the rest run.
Anyone who was able to learn something from this trade or even make profits is welcome to boost and comment. §8-)
YT video will be available tomorrow.
...and on we go.
The big Short. #strategyHere’s a polished extended version of your strategy note in English, structured and with some emphasis/emoji for clarity:
---
📉 **Preparing the Big Short – Strategy on Coinbase (COIN)**
We are setting up a potential short trade on **Coinbase (COIN)**, to be executed and analyzed between **mid-November and mid-December**.
🔍 **Key Analytical Pillars:**
1. **Price vs. 200-day Moving Average (MA200)** → we will assess whether COIN is stretched above its long-term support/resistance line.
2. **Intrinsic Value** → current estimate around **\$180/share**, while we anticipate a possible decline into the **\$120–\$180 range**.
3. **On-chain Bitcoin Analysis** → since COIN’s performance is heavily correlated with BTC, we’ll integrate on-chain signals (whale activity, exchange flows, LTH supply, etc.) to refine timing.
🛠 **Options Structure (Put Strategy):**
* **Core position**: Buy a **Put with a strike \~10–15% below current spot**, with an expiry around **6 months out** (to cover potential volatility into mid-2026).
* **Premium optimization**:
* Consider buying a **further OTM Put** (lower strike) to cheapen the overall premium (bear put spread).
* Optionally, add a **Call hedge** to protect part of the operational upside in case of unexpected bullish momentum.
* **Goal**: Keep the **premium low**, **breakeven not too far from spot**, and maintain convexity in case of a sharp downside move.
📊 **Additional considerations:**
* **VIX** → we’ll monitor implied volatility. Lower VIX levels could make premiums cheaper, improving risk/reward.
* **Timing** → precise entry will depend on macro context, Fed’s rate path, and BTC’s on-chain indicators.
🎯 **Target Outlook:**
* Intrinsic Value: **\$180**
* Expected downside: **\$120–\$180 zone**
* Strategy: **Puts for directional downside exposure**, optimized with spreads/hedges.
⚠️ **Disclaimer:** *This is not financial advice. DYOR (Do Your Own Research).*
---
MicroStrategy: Bullish Reversal Signals Potential Upside Rally
Current Price: $366.32
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $390.00
- T2 = $410.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $345.00
- S2 = $330.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in MicroStrategy.
**Key Insights:**
MicroStrategy (MSTR), a notable player in the enterprise analytics and Bitcoin accumulation space, has been at the nexus of technology and cryptocurrency investments. Traders are highly attuned to its dual exposure to cloud software businesses and its significant Bitcoin reserves. The company's financial performance has seen a notable tailwind from Bitcoin's stabilization in recent weeks, driving speculation regarding its valuation.
Technically, MSTR is showing signs of a bullish reversal after consolidating around the $360–$370 range. The recent RSI levels suggest the stock is tipping out of oversold conditions, while MACD has hinted at an upward crossover, adding credibility to the bullish momentum. Market breadth currently favors growth-oriented names, which also aids the stock's potential upward drive.
**Recent Performance:**
MicroStrategy has traded in a tight range over the past month, reflecting subdued volatility. Despite minor retracements, it has maintained the critical $350 level as support. The stock is up approximately 8% year-to-date, with its Bitcoin holdings serving as a de facto lever on cryptocurrency market trends. Short-term price action has solidified a strong floor, likely bolstered by institutional interest and technical shareholders doubling down on consolidation plays.
**Expert Analysis:**
Market strategists view MicroStrategy as a leveraged Bitcoin investment, where investor sentiment around Bitcoin deeply impacts the stock. Analysts forecast stronger-than-average growth for the company over the next quarter as Bitcoin’s price shows signs of a possible rally. On technicals, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is converging toward a key breakout point, which traders interpret as a bullish harbinger. Furthermore, resistance levels around $390 could pose a challenge but, if broken, pave the way for $410 and higher in the medium term.
**News Impact:**
There have been no significant headwinds in Bitcoin markets lately, and broader cryptocurrency sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Recent MicroStrategy announcements on streamlining its software division also point to a continued focus on balancing core operations and crypto-derived strategies. Broad equity market strength adds additional upward pressure to MSTR’s equity valuation.
**Trading Recommendation:**
MicroStrategy exhibits strong technical indicators backed by improving sentiment around Bitcoin and the broader tech sector. With a well-defined support level, this stock could generate significant upside for mid-term growth investors. Entering a LONG trade near $366.32 offers a high probability setup with a first target of $390.00 and a second target of $410.00. Tight stops around $345 and $330 help to hedge against downside risks effectively.
Do you want to save hours every week?
WaverVanir VolanX Protocol – Short Thesis: MSTR🔻 WaverVanir VolanX Protocol – Short Thesis: MSTR
Timeframe: 15-Min | Bias: Bearish | As of: July 18, 2025
Disclaimer: For educational and illustrative purposes only. Not financial advice.
🧠 Thesis Summary:
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has broken market structure at a key premium zone, rejecting from the weekly high, with strong volume confirming distribution. The smart money appears to have exited positions, leaving behind a clear imbalance and liquidity void below.
🔍 1. Smart Money Concepts Breakdown
Premium Zone Rejection (454–456): Price rejected from a premium inefficiency pocket, tagged liquidity, and failed to make a new high.
Internal CHoCH and BOS at Top: Multiple Change of Character (CHoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS) events indicate smart money is offloading.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) Below: Several unmitigated FVGs below (≈412, ≈404, ≈396) serve as magnets for price.
⚠️ 2. Liquidity Sweep Confirmed
Equal Highs Taken Out: Perfect setup for liquidity engineering – retail traders trapped long above 454.
Displacement Candle: Sharp move down post-sweep confirms institutional sell-off.
Volume Spike at Breakdown: Selling volume surged on the red candle through 440 support, indicating urgency from sellers.
🧮 3. ORB Breakdown & VolanX ORB Confluence
Opening Range Breakdown (ORB 15min): ORB low at 448.67 was decisively broken.
Current price: 436.30, firmly below both ORB midpoint and low – signaling bearish continuation.
🧭 4. Probabilistic Price Targets
Target Area Price Level Rationale
TP1 428.00 Equilibrium block
TP2 412.00 Imbalance fill + previous BOS
TP3 396.00 Deep discount zone + Strong Low
Stop Loss: Above 456
Risk-Reward (TP2): 1:3+
Volatility: Elevated (Vol: 129.97K)
🧩 5. Macro & Correlation Risk
Bitcoin Correction Imminent: MSTR is heavily correlated to BTC. Any weakness in crypto adds pressure.
Rate Cut Uncertainty: Hawkish Fed tone or delayed cut could hurt growth narratives and tech multiples.
📉 Summary:
This is a high-probability short setup powered by:
Premium zone rejection
Clear BOS and CHoCH pattern
Strong volume confirmation
ORB breakdown alignment
Liquidity engineering dynamics
VolanX Protocol flags this as a Strategic Short Opportunity targeting liquidity zones below.
🔻 Suggested Trade (Illustrative)
plaintext
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Entry: 440–436
Stop: 456
Target 1: 428
Target 2: 412
Target 3: 396
#WaverVanir #VolanXProtocol #MSTR #SmartMoneyConcepts #ORB #ShortSetup #LiquiditySweep #DirectionalBias
MSTR: A Giant with Feet of ClayExactly two weeks ago, I wrote an article with a rhetorical question: “Why should you buy Strategy if you want exposure to BTC?” and argued that MSTR could fall—and fall hard.
Two days ago, BTC printed a new ATH. That move was visible in MSTR as well; however, we’ve got a lower high and a new fail for the stock.
Even more, this fail has formed the right shoulder of an H&S pattern.
On the weekly chart, there’s a strong bearish engulfing that ended exactly at the neckline of the pattern.
This type of price action is far from bullish, regardless of what one may want to dream of.
BTC is above confluence support. If it breaks this level, Strategy will fall even harder.
In my last post, out of 12 comments, 5 were hate comments—because “how can I say such enormities, that Strategy could fall.”
The answer is simple: the chart doesn’t look good at all.
Even if BTC reverses from this support, in my opinion the reflection in MSTR will be minimal.
And anyway, I trade what I see, not what Saylor sells me.
That being said, a drop of BTC under confluence support will most probably lead to a break below the neckline for Strategy. And if BTC delivers a meaningful correction, Strategy will fall like a giant with feet of clay that it is.
