BTCMINI trade ideas
Update on cme chartBig news ahead of the market , the cme gap is still open i believe after all the news we will some crazy fluctuations in the markets so my suggestions are:
1_ don't get involved for now until the markets stabilize
2_ shutdown your greed , fomo and fear those will not play in favour of any human especially in September
3_ sitback and just watch the show
Bitcoin – Bearish Scenario Playing Out as ExpectedBitcoin – Bearish Scenario Playing Out as Expected
Hello traders,
BTC continues to follow the plan, reacting neatly within the channel and showing a minor drop at the retest of the rising structure. Hopefully, many of you managed to catch the short signal from the previous setup.
In line with the current momentum, BTC remains in a solid downtrend. This short position will be held in the medium term, with the next long zone expected around 105k.
On the higher timeframes, BTC is still within a broader bullish trend, with greater upside potential at the long-term buy zones. That said, current market sentiment shows heavy liquidity flowing into gold, which could mean BTC moves more slowly in the near term.
This is my trading outlook for BTC – stay disciplined, manage risk, and feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
BTCUSD | Bullish Bias - Watching for Continuation🔹 HTF (4H): Structure is bullish and intact. Price broke major external highs, leaving bullish momentum at the top. Despite a deep pullback into a refined internal OB, structure remains respected — no lows invalidated.
🔹 MTF (30M): Price mitigated the refined OB and made a professional sweep at the lows, giving a temporary bearish appearance, but the bullish structure holds. Continuation setups are forming.
🔹 LTF (5M): Waiting for price to take out the lower timeframe lower high — CHoCH confirmation. Once that shift occurs, bulls will look to attend longs and ride continuation toward the upside.
🔹 Execution Plan: Patience is key. Let smart money reveal itself and the OB defend before committing to entries.
🔹 Mindset Note: Trend is your friend — follow price, stay alert, and wait for confirmations. Popcorn out until the market shows its hand.
Bitcoin trading schedule for next week!It looks like we completed the diagonal (wave pattern) last week. Now, in theory, we should be moving upwards. We're currently in a pullback. Friday saw some bad US unemployment news, which triggered a sell-off across the entire market.
Some altcoins look particularly weak. And while Bitcoin corrects over the weekend, alts could dump much harder.
We're conducting our analysis using key reversal levels, in addition to wave counting—which is, of course, subjective and open to interpretation.
Approximate targets are on the chart. I'm not considering a bearish scenario for now, but of course, anything is possible.
Bitcoin Under Pressure: Downside Risks IncreaseMarket Overview:
BTC/USD is trading near $110,700, failing to hold above the $113,000 resistance and the EMA (144). The bearish momentum inside the range suggests a higher risk of a downside breakout.
Technical Signals:
Rejection from $113,000.
Price remains below EMA (144), confirming seller dominance.
Next support zone lies at $107,000–106,000.
Key Levels:
Support: $107,000 – $106,000 – $103,000
Resistance: $113,000 – $116,000
Scenario:
Main: decline towards $107,000–106,000.
Alternative: breakout above $113,000 could push BTC towards $116,000.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin remains under selling pressure. As long as the price stays below $113,000, the bearish outlook dominates.
Bitcoin should see minor relief to 114,228$ before bearish drop!I noticed this much earlier than I should have reported on it, but the details are in the title and were the arrows lead.
This is a minor bullish relief and should be nothing of concern to the bears, just don't get liquidated by this minor rise.
The alts may see much higher rises proportionately but that is also nothing of concern as the SPX is looking very flat this week and even more so bearish.
Bitcoin: Curve AdjustmentsBottoms can be expressed as a curve which matches logarithmic growth patterns. In the long-term perspective it serves as signal of trend's transition phase in broader scale. Coordinate of top adjusted accordingly.
Extending them is crucial because together they gives boundaries of range compression. Some sort of wave limits which help to clarify price-based levels.
▒₿▒ Distribution Top - Anatomy of a Bitcoin Cycle Top ▒₿▒COINBASE:BTCUSD
I've identified key price action indications that we have "topped" with an ATH for this Bull Market Cycle. There is a much deeper analysis that needs to be done here.
While this price action is the first major clue, to confirm a true distribution top, we'll also need to analyze volume profiles for institutional selling, spot bearish divergences in key momentum oscillators, and watch on-chain metrics for any signs of whale or miner selling pressure.
Every Bitcoin cycle has a story, and the final chapter is always the most dramatic. I've been analyzing the price action at every major cycle peak, and there's a recurring pattern that acts like a final warning before the curtain falls. It’s not the explosive top itself, but the messy, indecisive period that follows: the Distribution Top .
This isn't just a pattern; it's the visual footprint of a massive transfer of wealth. It’s the moment when the cycle's early investors (smart money) begin to distribute their holdings to the late, euphoric buyers.
Look at the price action from the November 2021 ATH top. After the euphoric peak, the clean, powerful uptrend dies. It's replaced by a volatile, sideways "wiggle." The Heikin Ashi candles lose their bodies, showing long wicks on both sides. This is the signature of market conflict and exhaustion.
Cycle Tops vs. Local Highs: A Crucial Distinction
It's important to understand that this "wiggle" is unique to major, euphoric ATH cycle tops. Other tops, like the one from August 2021 shown below, have a much different character. Notice how the rejection is sharper, faster, and lacks the prolonged, grinding "wiggle." This is often a rejection from a known resistance level, not the slow, painful end of cycle-wide euphoria.
The "Distribution Top" is a process. It’s designed to churn, create confusion, and trap breakout traders before the real move down begins. It’s the market grinding at the highs, absorbing the last wave of FOMO. We saw this exact anatomy play out in the April 2021 top as well.
The Key Takeaway for Bitcoin Investors:
Recognizing this specific pattern is crucial for capital preservation. When you see this shift from clean momentum to choppy, indecisive grinding near an all-time high , it's a signal that the market character has changed. The risk is no longer to the upside; it's to the downside.
While this price action is the first major clue, to confirm a true distribution top, we'll also need to analyze key trend lines, candlestick patterns, seasonality, volume profiles for institutional selling, and watch on-chain metrics for any signs of whale or miner selling pressure.
Now, take a look at the most recent price action. We are seeing the early stages of this very same pattern developing after a new high.
The question every Bitcoin holder should be asking is: Is this history rhyming once again?
As I mentioned at the start of this post, there are much more metrics to analyze here, so I'll be updating this post with further findings.
DISCLAIMER
I AM NOT A FINACIAL ADVISOR, NOR AM I YOURS. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. MEARLY DOODLINGS ON A MATHMATICALLY DRIVEN GRAPHICAL INTERFACE, TRACKING AN INVISIBLE 256BIT MILITARY-GRADE ENCRYPTED ASSET. . . FOR ENTERTAINMENT/AMUSEMENT PUROSES ONLY. ENJOY!
Looking to hear your thoughts on this @TradingView @Profit_Through_Patience @David_Perk @ProjectSyndicate @Xanrox_ @HAMED_AZ @melikatrader94
How Potentially Manipulated NFP Data Could Affect BTC's PricBitcoin rallied last Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's prepped the market for an interest rate cut in September.
However, these gains have faded, with Bitcoin back to where it started last Friday; around $112,000.
The market's focus is now shifting to the upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, scheduled for release next week, which could greatly influence interest rates expectations.
Strong job data may reduce the likelihood of a September rate cut.
And with an Orwellian portrait of Trump now hanging from the Department of Labor Building, and his administration potentially pressuring the Bureau of Labor Statistics to inflate job numbers, this scenario is becoming a real possibility. If this happens, we could expect price action to test the lower Fibonacci retracement levels, such as the 141.4% at around $109,900 or further at $108,700.
BTCUSD-SELL strategy weekly chart GANNIt is time go south and a lot more than people would expect, is my personal viewpoint. We have negative indicators, and the overbought state, shows we may see $ 75k area. The monthly chart potential correction is around $ 75 - 65k area.
Strategy SELL (or add) @ $ 107 k - 115k and take profit initially @ $ 85k.
Looking at a sell set up after some correctionBTC/USD – OB-to-OB Execution
Previous short: delivered to TP.
Previous long: liquidity grab via wick before displacement in intended direction.
Current bias: bearish, yet observing a 1H market structure shift with clean FVG formation. Price has violated trendline, creating potential for a retracement into premium arrays.
Setup: OB-to-OB, scalping between defined supply and demand blocks. Re-entered long post-liquidity sweep. Risk classified as mid-to-high; position sizing adjusted.
Monitoring: price reaction at OBs and FVG to validate continuation or reversal narrative.
BITCOIN The August-September bottom cheat sheet!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just entered its 2-year Buy Zone, which is a Higher Lows belt that has priced its last 3 major bottoms and since the November 2022 Bear market bottom, has been the most optimal long-term buy entry.
A very interesting fact is that the August - September period since 2023 has been such a bottom formation, with the 1W RSI Support Zone, providing an additional confirmation for a long-term buy entry, also present during the March - April 2025 Tariff led correction.
As a result, it is highly likely to start seeing the new Bullish Leg starting by the first 1-2 weeks of September, with the previous two rising by +96.86 and +105.80% respectively. That suggests that BTC could marginally surpass $200k before the Cycle peaks. That would also be just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from Aprils Low, similar to the December 2024 High.
So do you think $200000 is possible for this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin last leg down before going back up ?BITSTAMP:BTCUSD faces strong resistance near 110,100 – 110,650. Failure to break above increases the probability of continuation to the downside, with the Fibonacci levels acting as the next bearish targets.
📉 Bearish Confluences
Price is currently testing the mid-zone of the Bollinger/Keltner channel and struggling to break above the red resistance zone.
Previous upward attempts have been rejected around the 38.2% Fib retracement (110,100), showing weakness.
Structure still shows a lower-high pattern, keeping the short-term bias bearish.
🎯 Fibonacci Bearish Targets
If the rejection holds, downside Fibonacci extension levels provide potential targets:
38.2% retracement → 108,298
61.8% retracement → 107,742
100% retracement → 106,840
BTCUSD ShortBitcoin has shifted from a strong uptrend into a corrective structure. After making a higher high near $124,533, price failed to sustain upward momentum and rolled over. The most recent Break of Structure (BOS) occurred at $112,879, where price broke below a prior swing low. This BOS suggests a transition from bullish continuation into a potential bearish phase. No clear Change of Character (CHoCH) back to the upside has formed yet, meaning sellers remain in control.
Supply & Demand Zones
The chart shows a large demand zone between $92,000–$99,000. Historically, buyers stepped in aggressively from this region, pushing Bitcoin higher into fresh highs. That makes it a strong zone, but given the heavy rejection above $120k, it could be tested again. The midrange zone near $111,000–$112,000 acted as support previously, but sellers broke it decisively, showing weakness. On the supply side, the area between $118,000–$120,000 remains strong, where price dropped sharply with little resistance from buyers.
Price Action in the Marked Region
Currently, Bitcoin is retesting the $111,000–$112,000 level, which previously broke down. Price is showing rejection wicks and hesitation here, suggesting supply is capping upside. The marked arrow points toward the $98,730 level, indicating expectation for another leg down into the larger demand zone. If price respects this rejection and fails to reclaim above $112,800, continuation to the downside is highly probable.
Trade Bias & Outlook
The current trade bias is bearish. Expected direction is lower toward $98,700, with potential extension into the $92,000–$94,000 demand zone if momentum accelerates.
Invalidation level: A decisive daily close above $113,000 would negate this bearish setup and open the path for retest of $118,000–$120,000.
Momentum & Candle Behavior
Momentum favors sellers—down moves have been impulsive, while rallies look corrective. Recent candles show long upper wicks and smaller real bodies, consistent with supply absorption. Unless strong bullish candles break through overhead resistance, sellers remain dominant.