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BTCUSD.PI trade ideas

Bitcoin Swing Trade Setup – Institutional Inflows Fuel Bulls🎭 BTC/USD – Money Heist Plan 🚀 (Swing + Scalping Strategy) 📊 BTC/USD Real-Time Market Data Current Price: $111,156.01 24h Change: +$2,117.61 (+1.94%) Day’s Range: $108,540.93 – $111,180.45 52-Week Range: $49,538.00 – $123,640.00 😰 Fear & Greed Index Score: 49/100 → Neutral 😊 Trend: Shifted from “Fear” to “Neutral” in the last 24 hours. 🧠 Investor Sentiment Outlook Retail Traders: Cautious (63% worry about crypto safety). Institutional Traders: Bullish (💵 $3.7B net inflows in August). 🌍 Fundamental & Macro Score Policy Uncertainty: High (U.S. tariffs, Fed policy shifts). Fed Rate Cut Probability: High (expected September cut). Key Event: Non-Farm Payrolls (Sept 5; forecast 45K jobs). Gold Rally: $3,508/oz (+30% YTD, strong hedging demand). 🐂 Market Outlook Short-Term: Neutral → Slightly Bearish (September volatility ahead). Long-Term: Bullish (Institutional inflows + macro liquidity). Bull/Bear Score: 55% Bullish vs 45% Bearish. 🎯 Thief’s Trading Plan (Layered Entry Strategy) I’m setting up multiple limit orders (“Thief Layers”) instead of going all-in — this spreads risk, builds better entries, and keeps flexibility. Entry (Layered Buys): $109,000 → $109,500 → $110,000 → $110,500 (Add more layers as per your own strategy) Stop Loss (Thief SL): $107,500 (Adjust for your own risk appetite) Target Zone (Profit Extraction): $116,000 (Checkpoint before major resistance zone) 💡 Key Takeaways BTC rebounded +1.94% but faces headwinds from whale profit-taking & policy risks. Neutral sentiment (49/100) reflects a balanced investor mood. Friday’s NFP jobs data could shape Fed rate expectations → big volatility catalyst. 🔍 Related Pairs to Watch BITSTAMP:ETHUSD | COINBASE:SOLUSD | BITSTAMP:XRPUSD | BINANCE:BTCUSDT | CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D #BTCUSD #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #SwingTrade #Scalping #TradingStrategy #LayeredEntries #CryptoCommunity ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSDLong
by The-Thief
High-Probability Long at Round Number Resistance Post-ATHTrade Setup Overview Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2 Entry Zone: Confirmed resistance at the round number 122.00 Price Action: Price is retracing back into the order flow channel, aiming toward the Point of Control (POC) Context & Confluences: ✅ Trend Direction: Overall trend is up ✅ Channel Breakout Attempt: Price attempted to break out of the channel, failed, and re-entered with aggressive buyers stepping in ✅ FVG (Fair Value Gap): Identified on the 1-minute timeframe, aligning with the area of aggressive buying ✅ Confirmation via Bookmap: Buyer activity confirmed on Bookmap at the identified FVG zone ✅ Key Level: Strong round number (122.00) adds further confluence ✅ Rule-Based Trade: All trade entry rules and confirmations are met Caution: The only concern is timing — this setup occurred over the weekend, outside of the active New York session. However, given that the market just reached a new all-time high (ATH), there is a strong likelihood of volatility resuming in the next session. Conclusion: This trade meets all criteria and is backed by technical confluence, order flow confirmation, and alignment with market structure. Despite the timing concern, it's a high-probability setup worth considering.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ripxela
1
BTCUSD Technical Forecast: Navigating the Upper EchelonsAsset: BTCUSD | Current Price: 122,491.82 | Analysis Date: | Timezone: UTC+4 🎯 Executive Summary & Market Context BTCUSD is trading at a formidable all-time high level near $122,500. This analysis examines whether this rally has the fuel to continue or if a significant correction is imminent. The confluence of several technical patterns and indicators suggests we are at a critical juncture. Geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, including institutional adoption and regulatory clarity, continue to provide a strong bullish undercurrent, but technical exhaustion signals are beginning to flash. 📊 Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown Swing Trading (4H, Daily, Weekly) - The Big Picture Primary Trend: Strongly Bullish on higher timeframes (Daily, Weekly). Key Pattern Confluence: Elliott Wave Theory: The rally from the last major swing low is best counted as a powerful Wave 3. We are now likely in a late-stage Wave 5 or a complex corrective Wave 4. A decisive break below the key support at $118,000 would signal that Wave 4 correction is underway, targeting the 0.382 Fibonacci level near $110,000. Wyckoff Theory: Analysis suggests we may be in a Re-Distribution phase. The sharp rise (Upthrust) is being tested. A failure to hold above $120,000 with decreasing volume could confirm this, leading to a Sign of Weakness (SOW). Ichimoku Cloud (Daily): The price is far above the Kumo (Cloud), indicating a strong trend but also signaling an overextended market. The Tenkan-sen (blue line) is acting as dynamic support near $119,500. A break below this would be the first sign of weakening momentum. Head and Shoulders? A potential, large-scale bearish Head and Shoulders top is tentatively forming, with the left shoulder around $115k, the head at this peak (~$123k), and a potential right shoulder to form. This pattern would only be confirmed by a break below the neckline, which would be projected around $105,000. Swing Trading Key Levels: Resistance (R1): 124,200 (Recent High) Resistance (R2): 127,500 (Psychological & Gann Angle) Support (S1): 119,500 (Ichimoku Tenkan-sen) Support (S2): 118,000 (Critical Wave 4 Invalidation) Support (S3): 110,000 (0.382 Fib & Major Swing Zone) Swing Trade Idea: Scenario A (Bullish Continuation): Wait for a pullback to the S1 ($119,500) or S2 ($118,000) support confluence with bullish reversal candlesticks (e.g., Hammer, Bullish Engulfing). Enter long with a stop loss below S2, targeting R1 and R2. Scenario B (Bearish Reversal): If price rejects R1 and breaks below S2 ($118,000) on high volume, consider a short position for a swing down towards S3 ($110,000), with a stop loss above R1. Intraday Trading (5M, 15M, 1H) - Precision Execution Intraday Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish, but highly volatile. Be nimble. Key Indicators & Patterns: Anchored VWAP (from yesterday's low): The price is trading above the VWAP, indicating a Weak Bullish intraday trend. A break below the VWAP would shift the intraday bias to bearish, targeting the lower Bollinger Band. Bollinger Bands (20,2) on 1H: The price is hugging the upper band, suggesting sustained buying pressure but also overbought conditions. A move to the middle band (20 SMA) around $121,200 is a likely intraday pullback target. RSI (14) on 1H: Reading is near 65. It is not severely overbought (>70), but shows room for a minor correction before the next leg up. Candlestick Patterns: Watch for Bearish Engulfing or Evening Star patterns at the R1 resistance for short signals. Conversely, Bull Flags or Bullish Hammers near the VWAP or 20 SMA provide long entry signals. Intraday Key Levels: Resistance (R1): 123,000 (Psychological) Resistance (R2): 123,800 (Today's High) Support (S1): 121,800 (Current Session Low) Support (S2): 121,200 (1H 20 SMA / Bollinger Midline) Support (S3): 120,500 (VWAP & Strong Intraday Support) Intraday Trade Plan for the Session: Long Entry: On a bounce from S2 ($121,200) with a bullish candlestick confirmation. Target: $122,500 - $123,000. Stop Loss: 20 pips below entry. Short Entry: On a rejection at R2 ($123,800) with a bearish candlestick confirmation, or a break below the VWAP (S3). Target: S2 ($121,200). Stop Loss: 20 pips above entry or R2. ⚠️ Critical Risk Analysis: Trap Formations Bull Trap: A classic bull trap is set if the price makes a swift, low-volume spike above $124,200 (R1), luring in late bulls, before sharply reversing to close below $120,000. The Wyckoff Re-Distribution scenario aligns with this risk. Bear Trap: A bear trap occurs if the price wicks down sharply, breaking below $118,000 (S2) and triggering stop losses, only to reverse aggressively and reclaim that level, squeezing shorts and fueling the next leg up. This would invalidate the bearish Elliott Wave 4 count. 📈 Indicator Snapshot & Confluence ✅ Conclusion & Final Outlook Bullish Case: The trend is your friend. The price remains above all critical moving averages and the Ichimoku Tenkan-sen. A hold above $118,000 opens the path for a test of $127,500. Bearish Case: The market is overextended. The potential for an Elliott Wave 4 correction, a Wyckoff Re-Distribution, or a large-scale Head and Shoulders pattern presents significant downside risk towards $110,000. Trading Recommendation: For swing traders, the risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback to stronger support zones ($118k-$119.5k) before entering new long positions, or waiting for a confirmed break of support to play the short side. For intraday traders, trade the range between the key levels defined above, using the VWAP and Bollinger Bands as dynamic guides. Position sizing and strict stop-losses are non-negotiable at these elevated levels.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by sunya
1
A Clear BTC Weekly Outlook (Week 40 - 2025)We are reaching to the close of the weekly candle in BTCUSD. Despite these are no new prices, managing to close above the marked red line would mean that the market is accepting higher closure prices on a weekly basis, and it would be the first time. Now, there are a couple possible scenarios moving forward. AGGRESSIVE BULLISH SCENARIO : The market closes above resistance, without rejection, retests the zone and takes off to price discovery. There would still be a last line of Bearish defense, called the "Parabolic Gate" which is that sort of projected top line that desperate Bears start drawing when they run out of levels to the upside. But apparently its common practice, so we gotta take that into account, it is what it is. CONSERVATIVE BULLISH SCENARIO : The market fails the aggression of the previous ATH rejection. In this case we would have to revisit lower levels of Demand to gather the necessary momentum for a second attempt.. or a third in this case. There are plenty of levels on the way down, therefore I don't see the necessity to retrace below the 90kish area. BEARISH SCENARIO : Governments around the World are coming up with creative ways to steal you Bitcoins, there is no Bearish Scenario bro. Hold tight onto them. I invite you to not underestimate the complexity of the UP ONLY cycle. Trading under these market conditions is not as easy as it seems. I recommend to be sitting comfy in SPOT, especially if you don't know what you're doing. We'll give it another look, together, next week. Until then Stay Safe!
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by the_morello
1
btcusd shortwelcome here is my btcusd short idea its based on 1 simple rule : buy low , sell high we touched the highs from mid august 2025 big sellers are active at price 123.700 & 122.700 if possible new buyers will enter the floor now and flood the market with fresh new buy orders and buyers stops , this will cause further price drops in my view, big buyers sit around 116.000-114.000 and will may enter big orders at this price, that means that its most attractive for the price to drop to 116-114... very tight stop with about 1100$ on a whole coin thanks to be part of this possibility enjoy
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Romanovic11
ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 2.0 – Weekend Bonus BTCUSD Analysis 04/10/25 BTC is trading around 122,280, consolidating after an explosive rally of over +11,000 pips from the 110,600 demand zone. After a strong bullish impulse, momentum is slowing as price hovers near short-term resistance. ⸻ 🔍 Technical Outlook Daily (1D): BTC printed a massive bullish breakout from the descending channel, rallying from 110,600 to 123,800 before facing rejection at 123,900 — a previous structural high and psychological resistance. • MACD: strong bullish momentum but starting to flatten, suggesting exhaustion. • RSI: near 70, indicating overbought conditions. • Parabolic SAR: still below price (bullish bias intact). → The daily structure remains bullish, but pullbacks are likely before continuation. Intraday (1H): Price is forming a short-term range between 121,950–122,900. • The 200 EMA (white) is below price at 120,800, confirming ongoing bullish structure. • However, MACD histogram shows decreasing buying volume and potential cross to the downside → early sign of correction. • RSI hovering around 55–60, neutral zone → consolidation after high volatility. Short-Term (15M / 5M): BTC is showing lower highs while holding the 122,150–122,250 zone, building a potential bull flag. • On the 15M chart, a small descending channel connects the highs at 122,790 → 122,460 → 122,300. • 5M chart shows repeated liquidity sweeps below 122,180, followed by immediate rebounds → strong short-term demand. Fibonacci Golden Zone (from swing low 120,779 → swing high 123,887): Golden zone = 122,000–122,300 — BTC is trading exactly inside it now, offering a high-probability reload area for buyers if defended successfully. ⸻ 📈 High-Probability Entry Zones (Max 60 pips SL) 🎯 Buy Setup (Fibonacci Golden Zone Support): • Entry: 122,000–122,200 • SL: 121,900 (below structure) • TP1: 122,600 • TP2: 122,900–123,000 • TP3 (extended): 123,800 (previous high) → Confluence: Fib Golden Zone + short-term EMA support + strong RSI defense. 🎯 Sell Setup (Short-Term Resistance Rejection): • Entry: 122,850–123,000 • SL: 123,100 • TP1: 122,450 • TP2: 122,100 → Only valid if price fails to hold above 122,850, confirmed by bearish candle structure on 15M. ⸻ 📌 Breakout Levels to Continue Trend • Bullish Continuation: Above 123,000–123,200 → momentum could extend into 123,900–124,400. • Bearish Continuation: Below 121,900 → opens correction toward 121,200–120,800 (EMA + liquidity pool). ⸻ 📅 Fundamental Watch (Weekend) • No major events until Monday. • Weekend liquidity is extremely thin, expect sharp stop hunts and sudden wicks. • CME futures closed at 122,350 → small gap risk on Sunday open. • Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish after strong week for risk assets. ⸻ ⚠ Key Technical Zones Resistance: • 122,850 → 123,000 → 123,900 (major) Support: • 122,000 → 121,900 → 120,800 ⸻ ✅ Summary BTCUSD is consolidating inside the Fibonacci golden zone (122,000–122,300) after a massive breakout week. The bias remains bullish while above 121,900, but momentum is slowing. Scalpers can buy dips within the golden zone for short-term 200–600 pip reactions. A clean breakout above 123,000 confirms bullish continuation, while a break below 121,900 triggers a correction toward 120,800. — ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 2.0 Team
VANTAGE:BTCUSD
by ELDORADOFX
BTCUSD 9/30/2025As you can see most recently, Price has encountered a Weekly Bearish expansion. Since then, we can see Price is producing a Bullish Retracement, that is on the cusp of creating Bullish Structure (ABCD Correction) inside of this Bearish expansion. Once Price encounters a Higher High here in this Weekly Bullish Retracement, we then will see Price breakdown to encounter the Bearish Continuation from its overall move. Do you see what I see?? Let's see what Price does... _SnipeGoat_ _TheeCandleReadingGURU_ #PriceAction #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #Bearish #Bullish #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCUSD #Forex #NakedChartReader #ZEROindicators #PreciseLevels #ProperTiming #PerfectDirection #ScalpingTrader #IntradayTrader #DayTrader #SwingTrader #PositionalTrader #HighLevelTrader #MambaMentality #GodMode #UltraInstinct #TheeBibleStrategy
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheeSnipeGoat
Bitcoin Daily Bias – BullishBitcoin is currently holding above a key daily support level around $107,300 – $107,500, where price has reacted multiple times in the past. The rejection wicks near this zone highlight strong demand, suggesting buyers are defending the level. As long as price sustains above this support, the bias remains bullish with upside potential toward the $118,500 – $123,200 zone (marked green). A daily close above $110,000 would strengthen bullish conviction and open the path for continuation. Invalidation of this bias comes if Bitcoin breaks and closes below $107,300, which would expose further downside. 👉 Bias: Bullish above $107,300 👉 Upside target: $118,500 – $123,200 👉 Invalidation: Daily close below $107,300
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by ResilienceFx
6
BITCOIN analyse// SO right now bit is trying to break the all time high and it comes with lots of fomo so you should be careful because if we brake that level there is no high and low or resistance but you must check the order flow and the money is coming in bit by checking volume order good and... i think we can have a very very good move if we break that 123,200 with a candle closed above that and i prefer stop order because of that fomo that people don't want to miss a big move and they buy // normally i would say btc.d MUST go up so we can have a real bull run but right now i dont think that so necessary but if btc.d go up its better but we can still have a bull run but btc.d ranging // usdt.d is still down trend that is very good if we keep that bull run in bit can be better and bigger and now we are hitting a important support 4.20 that if we break that it could be very good ''/''/''/'' now you can wait for break in bit and enter early that i think even if you hit stop loss there will be no problem right now we have so many chance to enter so you can enter early but be careful dont be like ''oo we gonna hit tp get rich'' you can but still expect a stop loss do not put 100 percent of your balance
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Fidox_crypto
Range-Bound Rocket: BTC’s Coiled Spring Between S1 and R3-ATHRange Bound Rocket: BTC Loaded and Coiled for $120k Retest Description: BTC is now trading around $114,260, still inside the range I’ve flagged earlier. We reloaded at our previously posted support zones between $110k and $111k. That gives us a strong base. I’m watching for acceptance above the $113k to $114k red box, which overlaps with the neckline of a potential reverse Head & Shoulders on the 4‑hour chart. It hasn’t triggered yet but we are in validation mode. (expecting a retest to 113k and then a break up) If we get a breakout with volume expansion and wide‑bodied candles, I’ll treat that as a valid activation. Target remains $119k and above. This table shows how likely BTC is to stay above certain price levels over the next two weeks based on current volatility. These are not predictions, they represent statistically expected ranges based on price behavior. 2WK/Probability, Price Level, Meaning 90%, ~$96,700 BTC is very likely to stay above this level 75%, ~$103,200 BTC has a strong chance of staying above here 50%, ~$111,000 This is the midpoint, BTC has equal chance of being above or below 25%, ~$119,400 BTC has a one in four chance of closing higher than this 10%, ~$127,400 Only a small percentage of outcomes put BTC above this level Key takeaways: BTC is currently trading around $114,260, sitting just above our red resistance zone at $113,000 to $114,000. Our first upside target, $118,000, lines up with the top 25 to 30 percent range of expected outcomes. This is reachable if the broader market stays supportive. $120,000 sits closer to the top 20 percent threshold. BTC would need strong momentum and favorable macro data to push there in the next two weeks. Downside probabilities While the structure looks bullish, we should still consider these potential retracement levels: Around 46 percent chance BTC dips below $110,000 Approximately 43 percent chance it drops under $109,000 Roughly 30 percent chance BTC trades below $105,000 These downside paths are consistent with our S2 and S3 support zones, which were successfully defended during the last major pullback. What I'm doing and suggest : Breakout confirmation: I’m looking to add above $113k to $114k only if volume expands and candles show conviction, meaning minimal wicks and strong closes. Weak volume or upper wicks mean the breakout could fail. Main stop is back inside the range. Scalpers can use a tighter invalidation below $112.2k. Reload zone: A move into $110k to $109k is a statistically common retest. I’ll look for buyer defense and fading downside pressure to reload. Volatility risk: I'm already positioned long from our previously posted support zones around $110k to $111k, so I’m not actively adding or hedging right now. Into CPI and the Fed, I’m staying hands-off unless we get a clear breakout or strong market signal. For those not in position: Avoid chasing breakouts before the event Look for confirmation or reaction post-data If we get a volatility spike, retests of $110k to $109k are still statistically common and may offer a better entry The goal is to avoid being overexposed heading into binary catalysts. I’m holding my current spot exposure and letting the trade breathe. If no breakout forms: I expect BTC to remain in a range between $111k and $118k. Support zones from prior posts maintained a bullish bias. If BTC consolidates below $114k but keeps forming higher lows, I’ll consider that ongoing accumulation. Catalysts to monitor: Nasdaq or NQ breakdown • Tech strength: Nvidia up ~30% YTD on strong Blackwell Ultra demand, ADI and MX showing strength despite macro headwinds. Jobless claims rising again • U.S. jobless claims are rising to 237K, signaling labor market cooling. Continuing claims are easing but job additions in August were weak at just 22K. Recent wide downward revisions (~911K fewer jobs year-to-date) reinforce rate‑cut bets. Geopolitical risk • Geopolitical tensions remain tail‑risks. Fed rate tone and CPI reaction • Fed tone and CPI outputs are increasingly important as data is tilting soft and markets are pricing in easier policy. • The USD’s trajectory matters. Further weakness helps BTC and tech space gain more cushion. Tech remains a key driver. AI and semis continue to lead Nasdaq strength, and BTC still tracks equity moves closely. A soft dollar also reduces market drag and supports upside potential.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by crypticwaves