Trigger: 4h-close below 121.0–121.2kWhat does it mean now
1. The trend is very strong (ADX>60, CMF≫0, OBV-z≫0) — the bulls are in control.
2. But we are high above the VWAP/VAH and slightly above the KC-Upper, RSI≈74 / MFI≈80 + a series of bearish divergences → the risk of a rotation to the averages/HVN is increased.
3. OI is neutral → up-movement is held, but without a pronounced influx of new positions (less "fuel" for immediate acceleration).
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Key levels
Resistance: 123 858 (Donch-High 20/55) → 124 157 (BB-Upper) → aVWAP swing high ~122,490 as the nearest magnet during an impulse (locally slightly lower than the current one).
Supports: 121,000–121,200 (top VAH 120,964 + local LVN ~120.7–121.2k) → 119,686 (KC-Mid ≈ EMA20) / 119,743 (BB-Mid) → 118,969 (Donch-Mid20) → 117,534 (KC-Low) → deeper 111 389 (POC).
HVN-clusters: 111.4–115.9k (magnet during deep correction). LVN thin: 118.3k / 119.1k / 120.7k / 121.2–123.4k — zones for "accelerations" during breakthroughs.
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Scenarios and triggers (not financial advice)
A) Basic - rotation to the average/VAH with attempts to hold up the uptrend.
Why basic: overbought (RSI/MFI), z(Price−VWAP)~+2σ, exit above VAH, a series of bearish divergences; at the same time, the trend is strong (ADX, CMF), i.e. the expectation is a respite/reboot, not a reversal.
• Trigger: 4h-close below 121.0–121.2k (back inside value) and/or return below 120 964 (VAH), with RSI < 65, weakening of the MACD histogram.
• Targets: 119.7k (KC-Mid/BB-Mid) → 118.97k (Donch-Mid20) → 117.53k (KC-Low).
• Cancel: re-purchase and consolidation above 123,858.
B) Continuation of the upward trend.
• Trigger: holding above 121.9–122.5k and 4h-closing > 123,858 with a buffer of ≈ +0.1·ATR ≈ +110$ → > 123,970, while OBV z50 ≥ 0 and OI ROC(5) ≥ 0.
• Targets: 124.16k (BB-Upper) → 125.5–126.5k (above the band) → by inertia in the LVN-corridor 121.2–123.4k, quick "stretching" is possible.
• Invalidator: quick return < 122.0k.
C) Sharp "blowing" (clear refusal from above).
• Trigger: false exit at 123.9–124.2k with a long upper shadow, fix of bearish RSI/MFI divergences on highs, OI↑ on a red candle, MACD histogram ↓.
• Targets: 121.2k → 119.7k → 117.5k; if weak, test 118.3k / 119.1k (LVN-pockets — straits can be fast).
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Tactics (example of logic)
• Reversal long: zones 121.2k / 120.96k / 119.7k at signs of demand (CMF ≥ 0, candle reaction, OBV z50 is held ≥ 0). Targets: 122.5k → 123.9k; stop - under the local LVN (e.g. < 120.7k), buffer ~0.5×ATR ≈ 550$.
• Impulse long: after fixing > 123,970. Partial fixes at 124.16k and 125.5–126.5k; trail on EMA20/KC-Mid.
• Contra-trend short: only when 123.9–124.2k is rejected + confirmed divergences (RSI/MFI/OBV) and MACD weakening. Targets: 121.2k → 119.7k → 117.5k; stop at 124.3–124.6k.
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Briefly: what to expect
The trend is strong, but the market is overbought and stretched to VWAP/VAH/KC-Upper with a series of bearish divergences. I expect a rotation to 121.2k → 119.7k to reset the momentum.
• If we get above 123,970, we can go to 124.2k → 125.5–126.5k.
• If we stay below 121.0–121.2k and VAH — a deeper correction to 119.7k → 117.5k is likely; only breaking through these zones opens the way to POC ~111.4k (this is unlikely at the current ADX/CMF).
