The Pink Elephant in Bitcoin That Everyone IgnoresYes, my friends. The game is over, and sadly, it seems like only I have to point this out to you because no one else is talking about it. Let's jump straight into the total liquidity in crypto.
As you can see, it's broken its weekly support. Look, I don't want to say our HWC—or weekly—trend has turned bearish, but I can tell you that if the daily candle closes like this, we're heading into corrections and a whole lot of pain.
Let's circle back to Bitcoin. Starting with the monthly candle
there are 26 days left, so we can't judge it fully yet, but right now, it's looking very bearish: small upper and lower shadows with a full, powerful bearish body. Combine that with the previous four indecisive candles... it's like we've got a car where all the seats are full except the driver's, and suddenly some random seller jumps behind the wheel. Okay, it's done—let's prepare for the drop. But this doesn't mean the HWC has changed ; we're still in an uptrend, and we'd need to break higher highs and lower lows to confirm that. But damn, of course we'll short in its secondary trend... why not?
Moving to the weekly timeframe
as you can see, each wave is proving weaker than the last: the first wave had 180% growth, the second 100%, and the latest one just 50%.
Now, on the daily
it's breaking that key 105k support. Around 100k, we've got another super important support level. If we lose that, the next ones are 98k and 95k. So, open your short positions on the break of 100k—keep in mind, the volatility around there will be intense.
For longs, we've got two scenarios.
1: A reaction at 101k, faking out the 104k break with a reversal pattern, then going long on the break of its resistance (which could be around 108k). Scenario 2: Going long after forming higher highs and lows on the 4H timeframe. Personally, I prefer to hold onto my long bias because, as I mentioned before , Bitcoin's uptrend legs have gone parabolic in this phase. That means if you don't jump in on the first leg, finding a stop loss on the later ones gets tough, you end up with lower R/R, plus a lower win rate—which leads to more losing streaks, more frustration, brewing the worst coffee of your life, and banging your head against everything else :)) So... that's it. Get outta here.
