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INTERVIEW: Hope phase - EXCAVO’s View 25/11/25 1. Do you believe the bear market has already begun? If yes - from what moment? Yes. The bear market started in November 2025. My cyclicality chart shows it clearly: not a single scenario points to continued upside. Every chart I posted on TradingView confirms the trend reversal. 2. What was the main signal confirming the reversal? The 153rd week of Bitcoin’s growth — a historic exhaustion point that almost always marks the end of a cycle. 3. What BTC levels are critical for the downside scenario? The key horizontal level is $74,000. At minimum, I expect a clean wick below it. 4. What fundamental factors accelerated the bear market? A massive overbought environment. The 2-year AI bubble pushed valuations far above fair value. The market became overheated — even though AI is here to stay. 5. Technical factors confirming the decline? We’re dropping without any real reason. Any small headline triggers selling. October 11 wasn’t about Trump — it was a whale manipulation on big exchanges. That’s how late-stage cycles behave. 6. Why did most traders fail to see this reversal? — Short memory — Conditioned for 3 years to “buy every dip” — No exit plan — No clear framework — And of course: they weren’t following EXCAVO 😉 7. Where could BTC go in the coming weeks? First: liquidation of short positions. We may even spike up to $94,000. But that would be a trap before continuation downward. In December, I expect the formation of one of the cycle bottoms. 8. Which scenario seems more likely — panic drop or step-by-step bleed? Most likely: a step-by-step bleed. 9. Is a fake bounce possible before further decline? Yes. I already mentioned it: a short squeeze → then a big drop. Practical Part 10. What are you personally doing in this market? I’m waiting. Observing. Studying. You don’t need to be in a trade every day. Overtrading destroyed more traders than any correction. 11. What should beginners do now? Exactly what professionals do: wait for their entry point. We’re hunters in the bushes — we shoot only when the target is close. 12. What should traders revise in their strategy right now? — Understand where we are in the macro cycle — Identify what’s working — Remove what’s not — Accept that the bear market will be long and exhausting Right now we’re in the hope phase. Disappointment is ahead. Best regards EXCAVO If you have any questions, feel free to ask. In the next post, I can do another interview based on the questions you leave under this one.
Short
by EXCAVO
6
BTC/USDT | Bitcoin Drops Hard – Key Demand Zones Now in Play!By analyzing the #Bitcoin chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that BTC failed to hold above $104,700, and as expected, this led to a heavy sell-off. First, the price dropped to $94,000, and then a second strong wave pushed it down to $89,000. Bitcoin is now trading around $91,000. Key supply zones and demand zones are marked on the chart. Important demand levels sit at $88,000, $84,000, and the larger zone at $74,000–$78,000. Watch how the price reacts to these areas. If Bitcoin wants to recover, it must first hold above these key zones. But if BTC breaks below $74,000, it could open the door for a deeper drop toward $50,000. For now, focus on price reactions at the marked demand levels. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
7
Weekly and Monthly Forecast Hello, fellow traders! Follow us to get the latest information quickly. Have a great day! ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1D chart) The volatility period has ended. The key is whether it can rise above 89294.25. If not, we need to check for support near 69000-73499.86. (1W chart) The following are important areas as the price falls below the third range: - 116259.91-119086.64 - 87814.27-93570.28 - 69000-73499.86 A decline below the 69000-73499.86 range can be considered a long-term downtrend, so this is a very important area for now. Therefore, as the price approaches the 69000-73499.86 range, we need to check for increased trading volume or the emergence of a new HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart. If the HA-Low indicator is formed, it's important to determine whether there's support near it. The basic trading strategy is to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range. If the price rises near the HA-Low indicator and moves toward the HA-High indicator, the wave should be considered closed (reset). Conversely, if the price falls near the HA-High indicator and moves toward the HA-Low indicator, the wave should also be considered closed (reset). A closed (reset) wave means that the trend has been reestablished. Therefore, as mentioned earlier, the basic trading strategy is created. However, if the price rises in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range, a stepwise uptrend is likely, while if the price falls in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, a stepwise downtrend is likely. The end of a stepwise uptrend is a decline, and the end of a stepwise downtrend is a rise. Therefore, a decline after encountering the HA-Low indicator is different from a decline after encountering the HA-High indicator. Therefore, a stepwise downtrend indicates a period of truncation buying, while a stepwise uptrend indicates a period of truncation selling. During a stepwise downtrend, even if the price declines, there's an expectation that a price increase will occur soon, so you can increase the number of coins (tokens) representing profit. This method involves trading at each purchase price and selling the same amount of coins (tokens) when the price rises, thereby increasing the number of coins (tokens) representing profit. The coins (tokens) representing profit are those with a purchase price of 0, which can lead to significant profits later. - A bullish trend can be considered when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and holds. However, the point where you should actually buy is when the price rises above 108353.0. Based on the current trend, the next volatility period is expected around December 23rd. Therefore, you should check to see if the price holds above 89294.25 during the next volatility period. Therefore, it appears likely that the price will move sideways to reverse the trend. Based on the price movement, the start of a major bear market is expected to begin after the first quarter of next year. However, if the price falls below 69000-73499.86, you should consider this a bear market and consider a response plan. - Thank you for reading to the end. I wish you successful trading. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Here's an explanation of the big picture. (3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern) I'll explain more in detail when the bear market begins. ------------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto
3
Bitcoin (BTC) – What Comes After the Sharp Drop? A Technical Outlook Based on Smart Range Zones 🟦 Introduction After a strong bearish move, Bitcoin has reached a critical juncture. The recent sell-off has driven BTC directly into the Low Range Zone , an area that historically generates strong reactions and often initiates relief rallies. The market is now positioned between major higher-timeframe supports and mid-range resistance, making this an important decision point for BTC’s next major direction. The attached Smart Range Zones chart shows precise High–Mid–Low ranges , plus two deep Main Support Zones, which together build a clear market structure roadmap. 🔍 Detailed Technical Analysis 1. Range-Based Market Structure Smart Range System has clearly mapped the following key areas: 🔵 High Range Zone (≈ $124,000 – $128,000) * Represents the upper distribution area. * Strong supply; previous sell-offs originated from here. * Bullish momentum must reclaim this zone for any attempt at new ATHs. 🟦 Mid Range Zone (≈ $104,000 – $110,000) * Former support, now broken strongly. * Likely to act as major resistance on any relief move. * A textbook retest zone where trend continuation (bearish) often happens. 🟩 Low Range Zone (≈ $88,000 – $92,000) * BTC is currently reacting inside this zone. * Historically, this zone produced the largest bounce in July/August. * If buyers defend here, a retracement towards Mid Range becomes highly probable. 2. Higher-Timeframe Support Blocks Below the Low Range, your chart highlights two powerful demand areas: 🟥 Main Support 1 (≈ $74,500 – $76,000) * Major untested zone. * If reached, this would likely produce a l arge higher-timeframe bounce . 🟥 Main Support 2 (≈ $82,000 – $86,000) * First deep HTF support block. * Lines up with multiple historical volume clusters. * Ideal for long-term spot accumulation. If BTC breaks the Low Range cleanly, these supports become the next logical liquidity targets. 3. Price Action & Candle Behavior * Long downward wicks inside the Low Range show buyer absorption . * Momentum is slowing down, suggesting sellers are losing dominance. * Strong, impulsive candles earlier indicate panic liquidation likely cooled off. 4. Market Sentiment & Liquidity * The decline aligns with high-leverage liquidations. * Fear index likely elevated, which historically aligns with bottom-zone entries. * BTC dominance stable: no major altcoin rotation yet. * Macro news still cautious but not aggressively bearish. Sentiment currently favors a t echnical bounce rather than a full trend reversal. 📈 Potential Scenarios for BTC’s Next Move 🟢 Scenario 1: Relief Rally Towards Mid Range (Most Probable) * BTC holds the Low Range (88k–92k). * Short-sellers take profit → push price up. * A bounce to 103k–110k (Mid Range) is likely. * Here, BTC will face major resistance. Key Level to Break for Bullish Continuation: 👉 **$110,000** 🔵 Scenario 2: Consolidation in Low Range (Neutral) BTC may: * Move sideways between 88k–95k * Build a base for a stronger directional move * This is typical after sharp drops A consolidation would be healthy and would prepare liquidity for the next impulse. 🔴 Scenario 3: Breakdown Toward Main Supports (Bearish Extension) If buyers fail to defend the Low Range: First Target 👉 Main Support 2 (82k–86k) Second Target (Max Pain Zone) 👉 Main Support 1 (74k–76k) A drop this deep would require: * Macro panic * Major liquidation cascade * Loss of current structural support 🎯 Summary * BTC has entered the Low Range Support Zone , a historically strong reaction area. * A bounce toward Mid Range (98–102k) is currently the highest-probability scenario. * Failure to hold this zone opens deeper targets at 86k and 76k. * Traders should monitor the Low Range for confirmation signals.
by EarningWithDrHafiiz
1
Bitcoin’s Macro H&S Structure Building Up!Bitcoin is developing a potential Head and Shoulders pattern on the weekly timeframe, a classic bearish reversal structure. The price has repeatedly rejected the major resistance zone marked in red, indicating strong selling pressure. As of now, the left shoulder and head are already formed, and based on the current structure, the right shoulder could form within the next 1–3 months if BTC continues to face resistance near this zone $100k- $107k Price is currently hovering near the long-term ascending trendline (neckline), which will play a key role in determining whether this pattern completes and confirms. The yellow candles represent a forecast, illustrating a possible scenario if the right shoulder forms and the neckline breaks. Key Highlights - Left shoulder and head are already formed; right shoulder may form in the next 1–3 months. - Strong rejection from major resistance, similar to classic H&S structures. - Ascending neckline acting as final support. - Yellow candles are only a forecast, not actual price data. - Pattern confirmation requires a decisive break below the neckline. This is an early-stage macro pattern, and traders should watch how BTC reacts around the resistance zone and the neckline in the coming weeks. Cheers Hexa
Short
by HexaTrades
1
BTC - Triple Intersection… Now or Never for the Bulls?Bitcoin has been in a steep correction for weeks, sliding inside a clear falling channel. Despite the heavy sell-off, price is now approaching one of the strongest confluence zones on the entire chart, a triple intersection. This key level combines: 1- The major weekly bullish trendline 2- The horizontal support between $85,000–$90,000 3- And the lower boundary of the falling corrective channel This kind of alignment doesn’t happen often. It’s the area where long-term bulls typically show up. As long as BTC holds above $85,000–$90,000, the macro bullish structure remains intact. A strong reaction here could trigger a reversal and kick off the next impulsive wave upward. However, if this triple confluence fails, the market may face a deeper correction before stabilising. We’re standing at a decisive moment… will this zone ignite the next bullish leg or break down into another wave of fear? 🤔 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr.
Long
by TheSignalyst
1
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #227👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let’s dive into the Bitcoin analysis. The market is still very bearish and moving down rapidly. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe Yesterday, the market continued its downward movement, and after breaking the 88,825 support, it made a very brief correction before breaking even the 83,333 level. ⭐ The support level we had for the RSI was 21.53. As you can see, RSI reacted to this level, and after its correction, it has now reached this area again. 🧮 From a momentum perspective, the market is highly bearish, and the movement has been very sharp. Volume is fully confirming the downtrend, and I believe after this sharp decline, we could see the start of a correction phase. 💥 We have a very important support zone at 80,000, where the price could move towards and potentially enter a corrective phase. However, in any case, I think the market has made its move, and for the downtrend to remain healthy, a correction is needed. ✅ At the moment, we can’t provide a trigger for a new position since the market has moved so sharply, like a speeding train. It’s better to wait and then hop on once the correction has started. 📊 For long positions, it’s clear that the market is still in a downtrend, and there is no structure supporting a long position. We’ll consider opening a long position only once the trend changes. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Short
by tradecitypro
4
BTC spot plans Bitcoin – Higher Timeframe Structure Update Back in August, I highlighted that BTC’s move to the upside wasn’t impulsive but corrective. That played out exactly as expected: Bitcoin completed Wave B (yellow) near 126K and then sold off sharply into Wave C. Zooming out, BTC is still in a larger Wave 4. Historically, Wave 4s tend to form triangle structures (A-B-C-D-E) rather than simple ABC corrections. These patterns are usually long, sideways, and extremely frustrating for traders. At this stage, I’m tracking two possible scenarios, but based on current price action, there’s roughly an 80% probability that BTC is developing a Wave 4 triangle. Key takeaway: The market is still corrective on the macro level, and patience is required while the triangle completes.
by HodlAhmad
1
BTCUSDTThe chart illustrates Bitcoin’s recent price action on the 30-minute timeframe, showing a steady recovery inside an ascending channel after a sharp prior sell-off. Price has been consistently respecting the green trendlines that define the channel, forming higher highs and higher lows as it climbs toward overhead resistance zones. A broad blue consolidation zone occupies the middle of the chart, representing a region where price previously ranged before breaking upward. The latest candles are positioned near the upper boundary of this zone, suggesting a potential breakout. The chart highlights two major resistance levels, the first around $89,007, and a higher target near $91,044. Two upward arrows indicate a bullish projection, showing a possible continuation toward these resistance levels if momentum holds. Below, the shaded red zones mark significant demand/support areas where buyers have previously stepped in—particularly around $84,739, and much lower near $81,000–$80,400. These areas act as safety nets should price pull back. Multiple trendlines from earlier price action intersect above the current candles, showing previous downward pressure that has now been broken. The overall structure suggests an ongoing transition from a bearish drop to a controlled bullish climb within the channel. In summary, the chart signals a constructive bullish setup: price is holding the ascending channel, attempting to break above local resistance, and eyeing higher targets if it can maintain strength.
Long
by Pintu_sahu01
2
BTCUSDT.P - November 24, 2025Bitcoin recently formed a short-term ascending channel, showing improving momentum after a strong prior selloff. Price is currently consolidating near 86,900, with key support at 85,900 and 84,400, and resistance at 88,100 and 91,900. A breakout above 88,100 would signal additional bullish momentum toward 91,900, while any failure to hold above the rising trendline could trigger a retest of lower support levels. The current structure suggests neutral to slightly bullish momentum in the immediate term.
by miljedtothemoon
1
BITCOIN | LONG BIAS | POTENTIAL REVERSAL AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCHTraders, Bitcoin is now sitting inside a large falling wedge structure on the daily chart. Wedges of this type often form during trend exhaustion and can precede significant reversals when the lower boundary is reached. This pattern sets the stage for everything that follows in this analysis. Below is the full breakdown of why I believe Bitcoin is positioned for a potential reaction and where the most important levels are located. Recap of the Previous Bitcoin Analysis In the previous IG:BITCOIN analysis I mentioned two scenarios. Scenario one outlined the following sequence: • Price pushes into 107k to 108k • That move sweeps the weak high and taps the AVWAP anchor • If spot CVD slows or perps shift into net selling, a rejection becomes likely • That rejection sends price back toward the mid range and possibly into 101k to 102k • Continuation into the higher timeframe LVN at 98k becomes possible Every single step unfolded almost perfectly. Current State of Bitcoin Bitcoin is now sitting directly on the lower band of the AVWAP anchored from 7 April 2025. What this means AVWAP stands for Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price. It calculates the average position of market participants beginning from the chosen anchor point. The April low marked a major shift in trend structure. When price reaches the lower band of an AVWAP anchored to such a significant low, it often acts as dynamic support. This is because it reflects the average entry of early cycle buyers. If price holds and begins reclaiming from this area, it signals that the strongest hands are defending their positions. If it fails, the market risks a deeper flush into lower demand clusters. Value Zone Analysis with Fixed Range Volume Profile To determine whether Bitcoin is inside a significant value region, we use a Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP). The range is anchored from the April low to the October high. Zooming into the profile on the left, price has now re-entered the core value area of this entire swing. The red horizontal line marks the Point of Control, which is the level with the highest traded volume in the entire range. The current low sits almost exactly on this level. Pixel perfect confluence. Why this matters When price returns to the value area after a distribution phase, two possible outcomes appear: 1. Reversal Buyers defend value and price rotates back toward high volume nodes above. 2. Continuation breakdown Price accepts below value, meaning even previous buyers are unwilling to re accumulate here. This opens the door to the next low volume pocket and lower demand zones. Right now, the reaction at this level is critical because we have perfect alignment between the lower AVWAP band and the FRVP Point of Control. Mathematical Levels and Fibonacci Structure Now we collect the mathematical evidence. We are sitting at a core AVWAP level and a core FRVP level. Now we check if the market is stretched mathematically. Bitcoin at the 1.618 Extension On the four hour spot chart, I apply a Trend Based Fibonacci Extension from A to B and project it from C. The placement rule Ask yourself: What was the last meaningful swing high that ended the previous trend and started the current reversal? That swing becomes A to B. The first corrective lower high after that becomes C. Using this structure, Bitcoin has now extended perfectly into the 1.618 level. The 1.618 Fibonacci extension is historically associated with exhaustion. Sharp downlegs often pause, take liquidity, or reverse at this point. TOTAL at the 2.0 Extension To confirm that this move is not isolated to Bitcoin, we check the CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL crypto market. TOTAL reflects the entire crypto market and shows equilibrium conditions. When Bitcoin and TOTAL stretch at the same time, reaction probability increases. Start with a retracement from A to B: Price nearly hit the fifty percent mark but not entirely. Then reverse the tool from B to A. Doing so reveals the extension levels below. Price is now sitting exactly at the 2.0 extension. Why the 50 percent connects to the 2.0 If a move retraces halfway, the remaining distance becomes the basis of the flipped extension. Doubling that distance gives the 2.0 level. Because TOTAL did not fully reach the fifty percent retracement, there is a small missing portion. To visualise this, I draw a box between the actual retracement and the fifty percent level. Then I duplicate the box under the 2.0 extension. The duplicated box lands perfectly on the current low, showing mathematical symmetry. Additional Mathematical Check I also check the structure that began after the 10 October crash. By extending from B to A, the downside projections appear. Price tagged the 1.618 level perfectly. Full symmetry Bitcoin at the 1.618 TOTAL at the 2.0 Internal structure at the 1.618 When all three align, the move has reached market wide symmetry. These zones commonly produce strong reactions or reversals. Summary so far We now have confluence in four categories: • AVWAP support • FRVP Point of Control support • Fibonacci extensions on BTC and TOTAL • Mathematical symmetry across multiple swings Next, we check the internal fuel of the move: order flow. Order Flow Analysis Spot CVD Divergence On both the one hour and thirty minute charts, Spot CVD continues making lower lows while price holds steady. This means aggressive sellers are pushing market sell but price refuses to break down. This can only occur when passive limit buyers absorb the flow. This is hidden absorption. Coin Margined Futures CVD Coin margined CVD shows the same pattern: lower lows while price stays flat. This indicates aggressive shorting with no continuation. Why coin margined matters Coin margined futures use BTC as collateral. When price declines, the collateral loses value. When price rises, shorts lose even more because both their collateral and their position move against them. Coin margined shorts get squeezed harder and faster. Open Interest • Stablecoin margined OI: holding steady. Traders continue to open or maintain positions during sell pressure. • Coin margined OI: compressed during the dump and is now flat. This means shorts are sitting in the market and can be forced out. Summary Price stable CVD falling OI steady This is absorption combined with short build-up. This often leads to a sharp reversal when price begins to lift. Volume Analysis Chart: Accumulation and Distribution (A D Indicator) The A D indicator shows whether volume flows into candles or out of them. On the one hour chart, the A/D is trending up while price stays flat. This means buyers are stepping in during down-wicks and absorbing sell pressure. Price is not showing this strength yet, which is typical for accumulation phases. On Balance Volume (OBV) OBV measures directional volume flow. On the last wick down, OBV actually moved up. This means buyers absorbed the move rather than sellers pushing price down. This is the classic bullish volume divergence after a liquidity sweep. Both Spot and Perps Confirm These divergences appear on both spot and perpetual futures. Spot confirmation is the strongest form of validation because it represents real buying without leverage distortion. The combination of A/D rising, OBV diverging, Spot CVD falling, and Futures CVD falling strongly supports that the sell pressure is being absorbed. What Happens Next Based on everything above, I expect Bitcoin to start by taking the weak local high at 99,862. Weak highs form when the wick structure is sloppy and no real sellers defended the level. On fine tick data, this high looks even weaker. Taking that high breaks the current local structure and potentially triggers a short squeeze. If Bitcoin begins closing four hour candles above 106,200, the next important level is 108,500. Main Thesis Bitcoin pushes into the first target zone and performs a Swing Failure Pattern around 115,700. With strong momentum, the move could extend into the 17,300 to 18,000 region. Invalidation and Downside If Bitcoin loses support and spends meaningful time below 93,000, the next major support is 84,617. This is the next Point of Control from the AVWAP auction and an extremely important level to watch. All relevant levels are marked on the charts. Trade safe and manage risk. From the depths of the sands, ThetaNomad ------------------- If you like my analysis, give it a like and leave a comment so more people can see real analysis without the noise.
Long
by ThetaNomad
7
Final 2025 Forecast for BTCUSDT 23rd November 2025 (Updated)Same idea as previous post, just zoomed in to see the potential gyrations towards to move towards ~$128k and hopefully beyond ✌️ 1. Friday session dip to around ~$81k 2. Pump to around ~$87k over the weekend 3. Dump down to ~$80k for Monday Trap 4. Black Friday Pump to ~$89k 5. Max Pain Dump to $79k 6. Final pump to ~$128k to end the cycle If we are lucky and price pullbacks from ~$128k and then exceeds it. Here are the targets I would be looking at; Target #1 $140k-$145k, Target #2 $170k-$175k Target #3 $200k-$205k This of course could be 100% wrong so remember (as always) to ruthlessly ✂️ cut your losers when wrong, and hold ✊ onto your winners when right.
by MrTobiasRieper
1
Bitcoin may continue to fall! Bitcoin may fall further, and buying and selling during this process will be crucial! Buying high and selling low is what we always do, especially with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin! We're not aiming to hold Bitcoin indefinitely, but rather to increase our personal assets through buying and selling! Many people have misconceptions about BTC because their gold-centric and traditionally centralized perspectives fail to recognize Bitcoin's superiority as a digital currency network, its verifiable scarcity, and its censorship-resistant utility. They believe its value stems not from its tangible uses like commodities, but from its decentralized nature, making it an unparalleled non-sovereign store of value and medium of exchange in the digital age. They view its volatility as a temporary phase of price discovery, ultimately leading to greater returns than traditional assets like gold.
Short
by VivianSandro
4