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BTCUSDT - cycle evaluation Cycle Evaluation Report Bitcoin / USDT — Binance Date of Evaluation: November 5, 2025 Analyst: MonkeyandtheRopes Framework: The Return Project — Lens Equilibrium Space ------------------------------------------------------------ 1. Long-Term Sell Cycle - White Lines (Status Report Only) ------------------------------------------------------------ Direction: Sell Origin: April 4, 2025 Target Price (TP): 75,994 USDT Current Price: 101,914 USDT Term: Long (720 days) Market Weight: Heavy (2) Capital Allocation: NO ALLOCATION FOR POSITIVE BUBBLES Cycle Age: Immature (C = 1.5) Depth (Bubble Ratio): +34.2% Projection Code: (34.2–Long–Immature–Heavy) The market currently operates within a Positive Bubble zone (Sell Cycle), representing a divergent phase where Φ_time > Φ_cap. Equilibrium quality (q) is high, and the system remains in temporal expansion. Entry during Sell Cycles (Positive Bubbles) is strictly prohibited under the Return Project framework. This cycle is evaluated only for structural and situational awareness. Expected rotation of Φ_time toward Φ_cap is anticipated in the second half of 2026, after which convergence toward the Target Price (75,994 USDT) is expected. Eval CPR: 1.72% (below 36% Base CPR) → Informational only; no trade action. ------------------------------------------------------------ 2. Mid-Term Buy Cycle - Black Lines (Primary Cycle of Interest) ------------------------------------------------------------ Direction: Buy Origin: October 6, 2025 Target Price (TP): 125,986 USDT Current Price: 101,914 USDT Term: Mid (360 days) Market Weight: Heavy (2) Capital Allocation: 40% Cycle Age: Immature (C = 1.5) Depth (Bubble Ratio): −19.1% Projection Code: (−19.1–Mid–Immature–Heavy) The price currently sits inside an early Negative Bubble (Buy Cycle), signaling the beginning of structural convergence (Φ_cap > Φ_time). However, the current depth (−19.1%) is shallower than the required entry threshold for Mid–Heavy cycles (−30.74%) defined in the Capital Model. Φ_time is gradually rotating inward, initiating the Seed Leg phase, but capital entry remains inactive until full structural depth is reached. Eval CPR: 15.4% (below 36% Base CPR) → Early-stage, pre-entry phase. ------------------------------------------------------------ Summary Table ------------------------------------------------------------ Parameter | Long-Term Sell Cycle (Status) | Mid-Term Buy Cycle (Active Focus) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Direction | Sell (Positive Bubble) | Buy (Negative Bubble) Origin Date | 4 Apr 2025 | 6 Oct 2025 Target Price | 75,994 | 125,986 Term | Long (720d) | Mid (360d) Market Weight | Heavy | Heavy Cycle Age | Immature | Immature Depth (Bubble Ratio) | +34.2% | −19.1% Eval CPR | 1.72% | 15.4% Structural Phase | Divergent (Φ_time > Φ_cap) | Convergent (Φ_cap > Φ_time) Status | Informational Only | Awaiting Deeper Entry (−30%) ------------------------------------------------------------ Final Advisory to Investor ------------------------------------------------------------ According to the deterministic logic of The Return Project: • No entries are permitted within Positive Bubbles (Sell Cycles). These are divergent zones observed only for structural awareness. • The only valid potential entry lies within the Mid-Term Buy Cycle. • Entry will become structurally justified once price reaches the defined depth threshold (~−30%) and Eval CPR ≥ 36%. Conclusion: No trade action should be taken at this stage. We must wait patiently until the market reaches the structural depth required in the Buy Cycle before initiating any position. ------------------------------------------------------------ Symbolic Representation of Cycles ------------------------------------------------------------ Cycle Type | Visual Color ------------------------------------------------------------ Sell Cycle | White ⚪ Buy Cycle | Black ⚫ ------------------------------------------------------------ End of Report — The Return Project / Lens Equilibrium Space (2025) ------------------------------------------------------------
by MonkeyandTheRopes
Bitcoin at Make-or-Break Zone. History Says Bounce Incoming!IG:BITCOIN is currently trading above the 50 EMA on the 1W chart, a level that has historically acted as a strong dynamic support during previous bullish cycles. Each time CRYPTOCAP:BTC has touched the 50 EMA in the past (as highlighted on the chart), it has triggered a strong rebound leading to significant upside moves. Currently, the price is consolidating near both the support zone and the 50 EMA, suggesting that the market is once again at a critical juncture. If IG:BITCOIN manages to hold this zone and bounce, we could see the next bullish leg pushing towards $150K. However, a clean break below the 50 EMA and support area could indicate a short-term downtrend or deeper correction before resuming the uptrend. Traders should stay patient and prepared for all possible scenarios. Risk management remains key at these levels.Plan your entries and stops accordingly.
Long
by GreenCryptoTrades
1
BTCUSDT (Weekly) – Cypher Harmonic Pattern Targeting Key Demand Bitcoin is currently forming a Cypher Harmonic Pattern on the weekly timeframe — a rare but reliable reversal setup that often appears near exhaustion phases of a macro move. This structure aligns with potential mid-cycle correction before continuation, providing a clear roadmap for both bulls and bears. Cypher Harmonic Structure The Cypher pattern follows strict Fibonacci ratios: XA leg: The initial impulsive wave defining trend direction. AB retracement: Retraces between 0.382–0.618 of XA (here ~0.58). BC extension: Expands to 1.13–1.414 of AB (here ~1.27). CD completion: Extends to 0.786 retracement of the XC leg — this defines the potential reversal zone (PRZ). In this setup: X → A → B → C structure is complete. Price is now heading toward point D, projected between $50,000–$65,000, the ideal PRZ for this Cypher. The highlighted green box marks this completion and potential accumulation zone. Technical Confluence Weekly RSI Divergence Bearish divergence appeared between point B and C — confirming a loss of upward momentum. RSI now approaching mid-levels (40–45), aligning with a healthy reset within a broader bull structure. Volume and Momentum Shift Declining bullish volume since the C-leg high, typical before harmonic completion. Short-term bearish bias persists until D-zone validation. Fibonacci and Structure Alignment The 0.786 retracement of XC overlaps with historical weekly demand. This overlap reinforces the D-zone as a strong potential reversal point. Scenario Planning Base Case (Cypher Completion): BTC retraces toward $55K–$60K (D-leg). Price stabilizes within PRZ and confirms structure with bullish divergence on RSI. Potential upside reaction back toward $90K+ over the next few quarters. Alternative Case (Invalidation): A weekly close below $50K would invalidate the Cypher completion and shift bias to extended correction territory. Trading Considerations Aggressive Entry: Scale into longs within the PRZ ($55K–$60K) once momentum indicators show exhaustion. Conservative Entry: Wait for bullish confirmation on higher timeframes (weekly close above prior swing low). Invalidation: Close below $50K zone. Risk management is crucial — the Cypher is high-probability but not infallible. Conclusion The Cypher Harmonic Pattern suggests BTC may be in the latter stages of a mid-cycle correction. If historical structure repeats, the D-point could serve as the macro reaccumulation zone before the next impulsive leg of the bull cycle. Bias: Short-Term Bearish → Mid-Term Bullish Pattern Type: Cypher Harmonic Key Zone: $50K – $65K Invalidation: Weekly Close < $50K
Long
by MAAwan
Bitcoin Losing Steam – Is the $100,000 Zone Calling?Hello everyone, BTCUSDT is currently trading around $109,600, still facing strong pressure from the medium-term descending trendline . After three failed attempts to break above the $112,000 resistance, selling momentum is gradually taking control. On the macro side, although the Fed cut rates by 0.25% , Chair Powell’s cautious remarks suggest the central bank isn’t ready for an aggressive easing cycle. This “hawkish rate cut” keeps the USD strong and weakens risk appetite — an unfavorable setup for Bitcoin in the short term. Adding to the pressure, October — typically known as “Uptober” — closed with a sharp red candle , signaling widespread pessimism. Meanwhile, Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to record hundreds of millions of dollars in outflows , showing that institutional investors remain on the sidelines. From a technical perspective, the lower-high structure is clearly visible, with EMA34 and EMA89 sitting above the price, reinforcing the bearish bias. If the $105,000 support fails to hold, the next key target lies near $100,000, a level that has historically attracted strong buying interest. Combining both fundamentals and technicals, BTCUSDT appears to be in a short-term corrective phase , and the likelihood of a retest of the $100,000 zone in the near future remains quite high.
Short
by Kairo_Vexen
10
BTCUSDTKey Guidelines to Remember: Our starting capital is $1,000. For the first signal, the maximum permitted loss is $1. For the second signal, the maximum permitted loss is $2, and so on, following this incremental pattern. The initial risk-to-reward ratio is 1:3. If a stop-loss is triggered, the risk-to-reward ratio for the next signal increases by 1 unit (e.g., from 1:3 → 1:4). Example Implementation: Signal 1: Risk $1 → Reward $3 (1:3) If stopped: Signal 2: Risk $2 → Reward $8 (1:4) If stopped again: Signal 3: Risk $3 → Reward $15 (1:5) Stay disciplined and adhere to the capital allocation rules.
by NabiChart
BTCUSDTKey Guidelines to Remember: Our starting capital is $1,000. For the first signal, the maximum permitted loss is $1. For the second signal, the maximum permitted loss is $2, and so on, following this incremental pattern. The initial risk-to-reward ratio is 1:3. If a stop-loss is triggered, the risk-to-reward ratio for the next signal increases by 1 unit (e.g., from 1:3 → 1:4). Example Implementation: Signal 1: Risk $1 → Reward $3 (1:3) If stopped: Signal 2: Risk $2 → Reward $8 (1:4) If stopped again: Signal 3: Risk $3 → Reward $15 (1:5) Stay disciplined and adhere to the capital allocation rules.
by NabiChart
Liquidity and Efficiency — It is HOW the market movesI made a video not long ago about lower prices on the crypto market, specifically Bitcoin, which usually determines how the entire crypto market moves for the most part. Lo and behold, we are moving lower. A fortune teller? Nope, I just see things in terms of how the market moves. How does the market move you ask? I've said it many times before... Liquidity and Efficiency. That is all there is to it. I give a general example in the video, but feel free to check out my other educational videos where I've gone more in depth and offer more examples of how this occurs. Happy trading! - R2F Trading
Education
by Road_2_Funded
$BTC Top-Down AnalysisCRYPTOCAP:BTC Top-Down Analysis Currently, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is bearish on every timeframe from Weekly down to 30m TF. Now let’s talk about where and when possible reversal could happen and which zones act as potential demand or supply areas. (This is a technical analysis only not financial advice.) Demand Zone (Potential Reversal Area) On Weekly TF, there’s a bullish order block (OB) marked on chart below green box around $97K – $92.8K. I personally believe CRYPTOCAP:BTC could tap this zone before forming new higher high. Now, why this zone? Let’s count confluences: 1- Previous strong low liquidity zone. 2- Weekly, 3D, and Daily bullish OBs aligned. 3- Breaker block confirmation. 4- 4H accumulation zone. All these line up perfectly in same region making it a high-probability demand area. Possible Buy Setup Yes, buys can be taken from this zone, but only after confirmation otherwise it’s risky. Your invalidation point should be a Weekly candle close below this OB. For a proper reversal signal, wait for: 1- 1H / 4H CHOCH (Change of Character) 2- Or a bullish OB to form on the Daily TF Supply Zones Now let’s talk about supply zones. On Weekly TF, as of now, there’s no supply zone. But if current weekly candle closes below the wick of October 10th crash, that will form a bearish OB turning into a potential Weekly supply zone. On Daily TF, we already have two bearish OBs: 1- Around $109.5K 2- Around $113.8K These are key resistance/supply zones to watch on any BTC rally. Summary 1- Trend: Bearish across all TFs 2- Demand Zone: $97K – $92.8K 3- Supply Zones: $109.5K / $113.8K 4- Reversal Confirmation: 1H / 4H CHoCH or Daily Bullish OB 5- Invalidation: Weekly close below demand OB If this analysis helped you understand the structure clearly then Like & Retweet for more deep CRYPTOCAP:BTC updates ❤️‍🔥
Long
by Hamzatheinsider
$BTC (WEEKLY): Losing the KEY 50-week moving averageThe most important CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart to break down right now is the WEEKLY, no doubt. I showed this DARK CLOUD COVER candlestick pattern 2 or 3 weeks ago (or candle closes ago, should I say). That’s in the past — right now, it’s all about the 50 MA. Look at that yellow moving average and notice that the ongoing (or just finished) crypto BULL MARKET began in MARCH 2023 with a huge breakout around $20k+ (white arrow on chart). Since then, the yellow 50 MA has never been lost — it was breached a few times but never had a candle close below. The 50 MA sits at $102.9k, so that’s the main resistance to beat. The weekly candle has to close above it in order to save any bullishness after losing the horizontal 109k key pivot level. $92,500 and $94,500 — my two LONG orders. A close below the $94k mark and I’m OUT of these trades. Not looking good, our #bitcoin — and this could be it. Reclaiming $109k would be BULLISH and possibly a huge BULL TRAP. Longs ONLY from flash-crash levels, for me at least. You do you. 💙👽
by ColdBloodedCharter
BTCUSDT – Potential Bullish Reversal from Daily Demand ZoneAfter a strong liquidation move to the downside, BTC tapped into the daily demand zone between 98,900 – 101,000, creating a deep wick and showing clear signs of absorption. This level also aligns with previous liquidity pools and the last unmitigated demand area from late September. Bullish Scenario I expect price to form a short-term base here and start building higher lows. A daily close above 103,450 will be my first confirmation that buyers have regained control and the reversal is valid. If that happens, I’ll look for long entries in the 102,500 – 103,500 area, targeting the following levels step by step: • 🎯 106,600 → first supply zone • 🎯 111,000 → structural break and confirmation • 🎯 113,500 → imbalance fill • 🎯 116,300 → final resistance before the major high • 🎯 126,000 → full target (previous swing high) Invalidation: A daily close below 98,800 cancels this setup. ⸻ Summary BTC has collected liquidity below the previous monthly low and is now reacting from a key demand zone. As long as 98,800 holds, I remain bullish, expecting continuation toward 116k–126k in the coming weeks.
Long
by kiimiia81885
Temporary correctionBTC 1W... *Don’t be afraid of this drop, it’s a big surrender. From a technical perspective, the $100,000 level is a key psychological area that the price needs to reach. From a fear and greed perspective, the market is in absolute fear, which I think is the best time to buy short. But my general view of the market is that at this point; it could even go below $100,000, and that’s where things get a little tricky. If buyers don’t show support in time, sellers could take control and push the price down to $93,000. Don't forget that a positive divergence has formed on the daily timeframe, which could be a factor in the price increase. Always be a buyer of fear and a seller of greed...
by worldfactsi
1