U.S. Fed Rate Decision — Main Possible ScenariosThis Wednesday, September 17, we’re getting the most important event of recent (and upcoming) months — the one that will decide the direction not only for crypto but for all markets.
Here’s how I see the possible outcomes:
💜 Pink scenario — the most likely
We approach the meeting with positive price action → the Federal Reserve cuts rates → market spikes 1–2 candles up → then crashes hard.
Bitcoin goes to retest the lows at $107,000.
Why?
Because this rate cut is already priced in — that’s exactly what fueled the entire rally of the past few months.
Just like with the iShares Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Trust approvals — it’s the classic sell the news: everyone who wanted to buy has already bought, the catalyst plays out, and there’s nothing left to push price up.
Also: historically, every bear market started right after the Fed cut rates.
And this bull cycle is already one of the longest — almost 2 years.
💚 Green scenario — least likely
We again approach with positive sentiment → the Fed cuts rates → market rallies → somehow new liquidity appears → and we go to retest the ATH.
Personally, this “pink ponies” scenario seems unlikely — the market is extremely overheated, there’s been no fresh liquidity for months,
and this entire rally has run on declining volume.
It’s not that everyone suddenly wants crypto — it’s just that no one wants to sell.
But at some point… they will.
💙 Blue scenario — plausible
We approach with neutral/negative price action because insiders already know the decision and are positioning.
The Fed keeps rates unchanged → the market nukes, because this was the main catalyst priced in for months.
First target: $107,000,
and if that breaks — $99,000 comes fast.
This would likely mark the start of a new bear market.
📌 Drop a comment — which scenario do you think is coming?
