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Bitcoin - 66k in 2026 (but first a pump - watch this!)Bitcoin has been going down drastically, as I expected many, many weeks in advance. But this is not the end of the crash! We will see lower prices in 2026, specifically 66k and possibly 50k later in Q3 2026. This is my long-term vision, but in the short term I think Bitcoin should go up to retest the previous long-term trendline and the previous falling wedge pattern at 97k! Usually after a breakout/breakdown, we want to see a retest. These retests are very important because they give us a chance to sell Bitcoin at a better price and also to short Bitcoin on the futures market. Bitcoin did some pretty crazy movements in the past weeks, regardless of the seasonality patterns. Statistically Bitcoin is extremely strong in October and November—but this time it was the opposite. Even though seasonality patterns are helpful, you always need to look for more indicators and fundamentals. Moonboys that were screaming for 200k and 500k got liquidated, and soon they will disappear from the market for good. I have been trading for almost 10 years, and I have experienced many crypto crashes, and the moonboys are always here at the top. When I was bearish at 120k, everyone was screaming in the comment section and even spitting on my bearish predictions. So my plan for the next Bitcoin movements is as follows: First, Bitcoin should retest the 97k level (this will take some time). After that we should see another big leg to the downside to 66k. Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
by Xanrox
112
Bitcoin - Approaching the Make or Break ZoneBitcoin continues to bleed lower after multiple liquidity sweeps, and the decline is beginning to compress into a more controlled down move. The chart shows a clear shift in sentiment after the all time high sweep, then another daily sweep that helped close both the daily and 4H imbalance. Since losing the mid range zone and treating it as resistance, the market has been trending toward the next major area of interest. Consolidation Structure The structure is currently defined by a clean series of lower highs combined with sharp impulsive down legs. These moves are driven by liquidity grabs followed by displacement, which fits the narrative of a market hunting demand. The previously supportive gray zone has now flipped into resistance, confirming that the current trend remains heavy until a deeper demand zone is reached. Key Support Zone and Expectations The most important area beneath price sits around the seventy two thousand to seventy five thousand range, which is the closest meaningful support left on the higher time frame. This zone has been untested since the last major accumulation phase, and as long as price reaches it with a clean move, the reaction can form the base for a bullish leg. If this zone fails to hold, the next meaningful support sits deeper, and the downside extension could accelerate before any recovery starts. Bullish Scenario If Bitcoin reaches the seventy two thousand to seventy five thousand range and prints a clear rejection with displacement back upward, the market can set the foundation for a strong bullish bounce. Ideally, we see a final liquidity sweep beneath that range, followed by a sharp market structure shift on the lower time frames. That would open the door for a sustained recovery toward the mid range inefficiencies left behind during the selloff. Bearish Scenario If the key zone does not hold, the current support gives way and the market moves into a much deeper discount. That would shift the bias toward continuation lower, targeting untouched liquidity pools further down. In this scenario, any attempt to bounce would likely be corrective rather than the start of a true reversal. Conclusion I expect Bitcoin to deliver a meaningful bullish bounce once the seventy two thousand to seventy five thousand zone is tapped, as long as the level holds cleanly. If it fails, the decline continues into a deeper support, but the higher time frame idea remains that the next strong reaction will come from that region. Until then, patience is key while the market completes the move into higher time frame demand. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
by TehThomas
57
Bitcoin Roadmap: Is This the Beginning of the Short-Term Rally?Today I want to share with you the Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) chart on the 15-minute time frame. This analysis is in line with the previous analysis (still valid) . These days, considering that Bitcoin is facing many parameters to analyze. One of the most important parameters is the SPX500 index ( SP:SPX ). I am long on the SPX500 index. Bitcoin is currently moving in the Support zone($91,900-$88,400) and near the Support lines and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($91,131-$90,477) . In terms of Elliott Wave theory, it seems that Bitcoin completed wave 5 with an Expanding Ending Diagonal , and we can now expect the start of the bullish waves , at least in the short term . I expect Bitcoin to start rising from the Support zone($91,900-$88,400) and at least attack the Resistance lines . If the Resistance lines and the $95,700 level are broken with high momentum, we can expect further growth of Bitcoin. First Target: $93,921 Second Target: $95,273 Third Target: $97,477 Stop Loss(SL): $89,537 Points may shift as the market evolves Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $88,570-$87,227 Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $94,500-$93,785 Where do you think Bitcoin’s correction will go? Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
63
Bitcoin - Relief rally is imminent!Introduction Bitcoin (BTC) has shown strong downward pressure over the past several days, yet it is beginning to display early signs of stabilization within key higher-timeframe fair value gap zones. Even though the current market structure remains bearish, several technical elements are aligning that suggest the potential for a relief rally. With multiple patterns and liquidity levels converging, the market may be preparing for a temporary upside correction before determining its next major direction. Weekly FVG On the weekly timeframe, BTC recently tapped into the weekly fair value gap and filled roughly fifty percent of this imbalance. This partial fill often indicates that the market is collecting liquidity before initiating a larger move. As a result, this weekly FVG acts as a strong demand zone where buyers tend to become active again, offering an area where price often stabilizes, even if only temporarily. The reaction here suggests that BTC may be forming a short-term base. Daily FVG On the daily timeframe, another fair value gap is present, and it aligns almost perfectly with the weekly zone. Above current price action lies a clear descending trendline, which is likely to act as resistance on any upward push. The combination of the daily FVG and the downward trendline creates a technically significant decision point. If BTC reaches this area, it may face renewed selling pressure, making this zone crucial for determining whether the market can extend higher or whether the downtrend will reassert itself. 4H Timeframe On the 4-hour chart, BTC has formed a falling wedge, a pattern that is typically considered bullish. Initially, price broke downward out of the wedge, which seemed like a continuation of weakness. However, BTC quickly moved back into the structure, signaling a fake-out. This type of movement often occurs when liquidity is collected beneath the pattern before a reversal begins. The return into the wedge strengthens the case for a short-term upward correction, suggesting that buyers may be gaining traction. Relief Rally The first zone to watch lies just above the current price level, where a 4-hour bearish FVG overlaps with the descending trendline. This confluence is likely to act as immediate resistance, making an initial rejection from this level highly plausible. After a potential rejection, price may revisit the bullish 4-hour FVG below, where buyers are expected to step in again. From this supportive zone, BTC could attempt to break through the descending trendline and continue higher toward the upper 4-hour bearish FVG around the 98,000-dollar region. This serves as a logical target for a relief rally, should momentum continue to build. Conclusion BTC is currently positioned within an important higher-timeframe demand zone, strengthened by the overlap of both the weekly and daily FVGs. Although the broader market structure remains bearish, the fake-out within the falling wedge on the 4-hour chart signals that a relief rally may be developing. The immediate resistance above price will provide the first major test. If Bitcoin finds renewed momentum from the bullish 4-hour FVG and successfully breaks the descending trendline, an upward move toward 98,000 dollars becomes increasingly realistic. For now, BTC appears to be setting the stage for a corrective bounce, with key levels offering clear guidance on how this scenario could unfold.
Long
by Youriverse
39
Bitcoin: Extreme support 91k! Big pump soon (easy, watch this)Bitcoin is in a critical situation because the price broke the falling wedge, and instead of a bullish breakout, we see a bearish breakdown! I expected this price action, please look at my previous posts. The falling wedge in general is a bullish pattern, but in bear markets they are bearish patterns. But soon Bitcoin will hit a key support level, and this is great hopium for the bulls! The key support level is 91k! Why? We have a very strong confluence to buy Bitcoin here, at least for a short-term bounce. First of all, there is an unfilled CME futures GAP on the daily chart. Second, there is an unfilled FVG (Fair Value Gap) between 91660 and 85320 on Binance. The next is the Fibonacci 0.618 FIB level on the LOG scale. This fibo is exactly at 91122. What is the plan? Now you know that there is very strong support at 91k, and that's a good upcoming trade! What you want to do is to put your limit order here and wait for the price to come to you and then take profit a little bit higher! Where to take profit? Don't forget to follow my TradingView account because I will inform you about a good level to sell/short BTC. What to do now? I would wait for Bitcoin to come to 91k, then I expect a bounce to higher levels! I think we will see a pretty nice pump in November/December, but be patient and wait for 91k. Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Short
by Xanrox
166
How to build Discipline & Structured Trading HabitsDiscipline is not something you rely on in the moment; it is something you build through habits that remove emotional decision-making from your trading process. 1. Define Rules Before You Trade Traders without predefined rules rely on emotion. Traders with rules rely on structure. Clearly define your entry criteria, risk per trade, maximum daily loss, and exit strategy. When these rules exist before the session starts, you eliminate most impulsive behaviors. 2. Limit Your Daily Decisions Every decision drains mental energy. The more choices you make, the weaker your discipline becomes. Reduce the number of markets you watch, the number of setups you take, and the amount of chart time you expose yourself to. Fewer decisions lead to higher-quality decisions. 3. Use a Pre-Session Checklist A checklist forces you into a disciplined routine. It can include: • Reviewing your trading plan • Checking upcoming news releases • Confirming your bias or market conditions • Ensuring your risk settings are correct The act of going through the checklist prepares your mind to follow structure. 4. Implement a Hard Stop for the Day One of the fastest ways to lose discipline is to trade while emotional. Set a maximum daily drawdown. Once it is hit, the session ends. No exceptions. This protects both your capital and your psychology. 5. Track Your Rule Breaks Most traders only track wins and losses. Disciplined traders also track deviations. Write down every time you break a rule, why it happened, and how you plan to prevent it next time. Over time, this builds awareness and accountability. 6. Delay Impulsive Actions If you feel the urge to jump into a trade that does not fit your plan, delay the action by 30 to 60 seconds. Impulses lose power quickly. By introducing a pause, you give your rational mind time to regain control. 7. Keep Your Environment Clean Distractions destroy discipline. Silence notifications, close irrelevant tabs, and avoid multitasking. A clean trading environment supports clean decisions. 8. End Each Session With a Routine A consistent end-of-day routine reinforces discipline. Examples: • Rating your discipline on a scale from 1 to 10 • Reviewing whether you followed your rules • Logging emotional triggers Ending the day with structure makes it easier to begin the next one with structure. Conclusion Discipline is not built through motivation but through habits that create consistent behavior. A structured trading routine removes uncertainty, minimizes emotional influence, and helps you operate like a professional rather than a reactive participant.
Education
by Louigi_24
26
Saylor’s Master Plan at Risk? MSCI Drops the HammerMSCI May Exclude Crypto-Heavy Companies: What It Means for MicroStrategy and the Market MSCI recently published a proposal that could dramatically reshape how global indices treat companies with large crypto exposure. According to the framework, companies holding more than 50% of their market capitalization in digital assets may be excluded from national and international indices. This sounds technical - but the consequences are huge. What This Means in Practice If the rule is implemented, companies like MicroStrategy, Bitfarms, Marathon, Hut8, Coinbase, or any firm holding a large percentage of crypto on their balance sheet, may: be excluded from major indices, lose exposure to institutional investors, be off-limits for pension funds, insurers and conservative hedge funds, face reduced liquidity and forced selling. This is not a small development. This is a structural shift. 🧩 Why MicroStrategy Is the Most Exposed MicroStrategy’s business model has been extremely straightforward: issue new shares raise debt (including convertible notes) use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin rising BTC → rising MSTR rising MSTR → more borrowing capacity A perpetual loop. But if MSTR gets excluded from key indices, the loop breaks: passive funds must sell institutional investors face compliance risk liquidity dries up volatility increases borrowing costs rise And remember: MicroStrategy currently trades below the fair value of its Bitcoin holdings. A forced outflow amplifies the structural imbalance. ⚠️ Why Institutions Bought MicroStrategy Instead of Bitcoin Many funds legally cannot buy Bitcoin. They also cannot buy high-risk crypto exchange stocks like Coinbase. But they can buy: reputable corporate debt convertible notes equity from a listed U.S. corporation Michael Saylor gave them a regulatory loophole: “Want Bitcoin exposure? Buy my convertible debt. If BTC rises, convert the notes into shares.” This workaround is now cracking. Convertible Debt Holders Are in a Tough Spot If MSTR is excluded from indices: index funds sell → share price drops falling price → convertible notes lose value institutions holding the debt face losses the balance sheet risk increases This is why regulatory decisions matter so much. Insider Selling: VP of Bitcoin at MicroStrategy Sells ~$19.7M Worth of Stock The timing is… interesting. Started selling on September 18 Sold options-based shares in multiple lots Continued selling until November 14 Total realized profit: ~$19.69M Selling into regulatory uncertainty is not random behavior. It’s a signal. Key Takeaways 1. MSCI’s proposal changes the rules: companies with >50% crypto exposure may become “non-indexable”. 2. MicroStrategy’s core model—borrowing to buy BTC—depends on institutional inflows. Index exclusion disrupts it. 3. Convertible note investors may face severe pressure. 4. Insider selling suggests internal awareness of structural risk. 5. If MSTR is removed from indices, forced selling could create significant downside pressure. 📉 Conclusion MicroStrategy has long been a “Bitcoin ETF before ETFs existed”. Institutions bought MSTR because they couldn’t buy BTC directly. But now: Bitcoin ETFs exist, regulations are tightening, index providers are updating risk frameworks. MicroStrategy may become a victim of its own success strategy. Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
24
BTC at Key Support Zone - Bullish Setup in Progress?BTC at Key Support Zone - Bullish Setup in Progress? Bitcoin has reached a major long-term support zone between 75,100 – 80,800, an area that previously acted as strong support in March 2024 and April 2025 on the monthly timeframe. The current monthly candle is testing this zone again, suggesting that buyers may step in to defend this historically important level. On the daily chart, BTC has formed a sharp decline toward this support area, but the recent reaction indicates early signs of accumulation. If buyers continue to hold this zone, a mid-term recovery could develop. As long as the 75,100 support holds, BTC maintains strong potential for a medium-term rebound. However, a clean break below this zone would invalidate the bullish outlook and expose deeper downside. Key Levels to Watch: Support: 75,100 – 80,800 Target 1: 98,000 Target 2: 107,500 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Long
by KlejdiCuni
22
How to build a Healthy Trading MindsetMany traders underestimate how much psychology shapes their results. This guide outlines the foundations of a strong trading mindset that supports consistent and disciplined decision-making. 1. Understand That Emotional Discipline Is a Skill Trading naturally triggers emotions such as fear, frustration, greed, and impatience. These reactions are not weaknesses; they are human. What separates consistent traders from inconsistent ones is their ability to recognize emotions without acting on them. A resilient mindset comes from training, not talent. 2. Create Distance Between Yourself and Your Trades Do not tie your self-worth to the outcome of a single position. A loss does not mean you failed, and a win does not mean you are skilled. When traders begin to link identity to results, they make impulsive decisions. Use phrases like “this trade” instead of “my trade” to remove ownership bias. 3. Focus on Process, Not Profit Most traders sabotage themselves by obsessing over the end result. The market does not reward effort; it rewards alignment with probability. Instead of thinking “How much can I make?”, think “Did I execute according to my plan?” Your trading plan should define your entries, exits, risk, and market conditions. Follow it even when it feels uncomfortable. 4. Accept Uncertainty as Part of the Game No setup is guaranteed. Every trade, no matter how perfect, carries uncertainty. Accepting this prevents you from forcing control where none exists. When you fully accept uncertainty, you no longer fear it. 5. Build Consistency Through Routine A stable routine reduces mental noise. Examples include: • Reviewing your plan before each session • Limiting how many markets you monitor • Taking breaks after high-stress situations • Logging your trades with honest notes When your routine is consistent, your decisions become consistent. 6. Use Losses as Data, Not Drama A loss is not a personal attack from the market. It is information. Ask: “What does this loss teach me about my system or my mindset?” If you can extract value from losses, they become opportunities instead of obstacles. 7. Master Patience Most trading errors come from acting too soon, not too late. Patience means waiting for your setup without deviation. If you need to be in a trade at all times, it is no longer trading; it is compulsion. 8. Protect Your Mental Capital Mental capital is as important as financial capital. Overtrading, revenge trading, and excessive chart time drain your cognitive energy. Stop trading when you notice fatigue, frustration, or impulsiveness. A clear mind is an advantage. 9. Develop Long-Term Thinking Think in terms of series, not individual outcomes. A single win or loss means little. What matters is the overall direction of your equity curve. Professional traders think in months and years. Amateurs think in minutes. Conclusion A powerful trading mindset is built through consistency, self-awareness, and emotional control. By focusing on process and discipline rather than short-term results, you create a stable internal environment that supports longevity in the markets.
Education
by Louigi_24
41
INTERVIEW: Hope phase - EXCAVO’s View 25/11/25 1. Do you believe the bear market has already begun? If yes - from what moment? Yes. The bear market started in November 2025. My cyclicality chart shows it clearly: not a single scenario points to continued upside. Every chart I posted on TradingView confirms the trend reversal. 2. What was the main signal confirming the reversal? The 153rd week of Bitcoin’s growth — a historic exhaustion point that almost always marks the end of a cycle. 3. What BTC levels are critical for the downside scenario? The key horizontal level is $74,000. At minimum, I expect a clean wick below it. 4. What fundamental factors accelerated the bear market? A massive overbought environment. The 2-year AI bubble pushed valuations far above fair value. The market became overheated — even though AI is here to stay. 5. Technical factors confirming the decline? We’re dropping without any real reason. Any small headline triggers selling. October 11 wasn’t about Trump — it was a whale manipulation on big exchanges. That’s how late-stage cycles behave. 6. Why did most traders fail to see this reversal? — Short memory — Conditioned for 3 years to “buy every dip” — No exit plan — No clear framework — And of course: they weren’t following EXCAVO 😉 7. Where could BTC go in the coming weeks? First: liquidation of short positions. We may even spike up to $94,000. But that would be a trap before continuation downward. In December, I expect the formation of one of the cycle bottoms. 8. Which scenario seems more likely — panic drop or step-by-step bleed? Most likely: a step-by-step bleed. 9. Is a fake bounce possible before further decline? Yes. I already mentioned it: a short squeeze → then a big drop. Practical Part 10. What are you personally doing in this market? I’m waiting. Observing. Studying. You don’t need to be in a trade every day. Overtrading destroyed more traders than any correction. 11. What should beginners do now? Exactly what professionals do: wait for their entry point. We’re hunters in the bushes — we shoot only when the target is close. 12. What should traders revise in their strategy right now? — Understand where we are in the macro cycle — Identify what’s working — Remove what’s not — Accept that the bear market will be long and exhausting Right now we’re in the hope phase. Disappointment is ahead. Best regards EXCAVO If you have any questions, feel free to ask. In the next post, I can do another interview based on the questions you leave under this one.
Short
by EXCAVO
21
Bitcoin last chance before the market bull season endThe market is at a critical technical juncture. A decisive breakdown and sustained close below the $90,000 support zone would signal a confirmed shift into a sustained bearish cycle. In such a scenario, the next significant structural support is projected near the $60,000 level, representing a potential depreciation of over 30% from current levels. Conversely, this level also presents a pivotal opportunity for the bulls to defend the market structure. A strong rejection and consolidation above $90,000, forming a robust base, would be the first step towards stabilization. Following this, a recovery and sustained break above $110,000 would be required to invalidate the bearish outlook and signal the probable start of a new bull phase. DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Long
by MMBTtrader
29
Mastering RSI: A Complete Guide to Momentum🔵 Mastering RSI: A Complete Guide to Momentum, Regimes, Reversals & Professional Signals Difficulty: 🐳🐳🐳🐳🐋 (Advanced) This article goes far beyond the basic idea of “RSI = overbought/oversold.” If you want to truly master RSI as a momentum gauge, trend filter, reversal tool, and structure confirmation model, this guide is for you. 🔵 WHY MOST TRADERS MISUSE RSI Most traders use RSI in the simplest way: RSI above 70 = sell RSI below 30 = buy This leads to shorting strong trends and catching falling knives. RSI is not a reversal button. RSI is a momentum translator. To master RSI, you must understand: Trend regimes Momentum pressure Acceleration and deceleration Failure swings Divergences Trend vs range behavior Multi-timeframe alignment Structure confirmation RSI shows the strength behind price, not just extremes. 🔵 1. RSI TREND REGIMES (CORE FOUNDATION) RSI moves in predictable zones depending on the type of market environment. Bullish RSI Regime RSI holds between 40 and 80 Pullbacks bottom around 40–50 Breaks above 60 show trend acceleration Bearish RSI Regime RSI holds between 20 and 60 Pullback tops form around 50–60 Breaks below 40 confirm bearish dominance These regimes tell you who controls the market before you even look at candles. 🔵 2. MOMENTUM PRESSURE (RSI AS A SPEEDOMETER) RSI measures the speed and pressure of price movement. Rising RSI with rising price = trend acceleration Falling RSI with rising price = momentum weakening Rising RSI with falling price = early strength Falling RSI with falling price = continuation pressure This is not divergence. It is momentum pressure, the earliest sign of trend shift. 🔵 3. FAILURE SWINGS (THE MOST RELIABLE RSI REVERSAL SIGNAL) Failure swings are powerful because they show internal momentum breaking before price reacts. Bullish Failure Swing RSI makes a low RSI rallies RSI dips again but stays above previous low RSI breaks the previous high Bearish Failure Swing RSI makes a high RSI pulls back RSI rallies but fails to break the previous high RSI breaks the previous low Failure swings often appear at trend tops and bottoms before candles reveal anything. 🔵 4. DIVERGENCES (REGULAR AND HIDDEN) Regular Divergence: Reversal Clue Bullish: price lower low, RSI higher low Bearish: price higher high, RSI lower high Hidden Divergence: Trend Continuation Bullish hidden: price higher low, RSI lower low Bearish hidden: price lower high, RSI higher high Hidden divergence is more powerful than regular because it confirms trend continuation. 🔵 5. RANGE RSI VS TREND RSI RSI behaves very differently in ranges versus trends. Range Environment RSI oscillates between 30 and 70 Reversals at extremes have high accuracy RSI 50 is the equilibrium Trend Environment RSI stays above 50 in bullish trends RSI stays below 50 in bearish trends 30 and 70 extremes lose meaning Always identify environment first. RSI signals change depending on regime. 🔵 6. RSI AS A STRUCTURE FILTER RSI combined with structure improves trade selection dramatically. Price makes higher highs + RSI rising = healthy trend Price makes higher highs + RSI flat = weak breakout Price makes higher highs + RSI dropping = exhaustion Support retest + RSI 40–50 = strong continuation potential Most false breakouts are avoided simply by checking RSI pressure. 🔵 7. MULTI-TIMEFRAME RSI ALIGNMENT Use higher timeframe RSI to validate lower timeframe setups. HTF RSI bullish + LTF RSI pullback = high-quality entry HTF RSI bearish + LTF RSI bounce = premium short area HTF RSI crossing 50 = long-term regime shift This is one of the most powerful RSI confluences. 🔵 EXAMPLE TRADING FRAMEWORK Bullish Setup Checklist RSI in bullish regime (above 50) Pullback into 40–50 zone Hidden bullish divergence or failure swing Structure forms a higher low Bearish Setup Checklist RSI in bearish regime Rejection from 50–60 zone Hidden bearish divergence or failure swing Structure forms a lower high 🔵 COMMON RSI MISTAKES Trading RSI extremes without trend context Ignoring RSI regimes Entering on regular divergences in strong trends Not using RSI midline (50) as a regime filter Relying only on overbought/oversold signals 🔵 CONCLUSION RSI is one of the most powerful indicators when used correctly. It provides a complete framework for: Reading trend strength Tracking momentum pressure Identifying early reversals Trading continuation setups Filtering breakout strength Aligning multi-timeframe bias Master RSI, and you gain a clearer view of momentum than most traders ever experience. How do you use RSI? Do you prefer divergences, trend zones, or failure swings? Share your approach below!
Education
by BigBeluga
38
Bitcoin is falling via the Descending channel As observed in typical market behavior, a descending channel often emerges as a corrective structure following significant upward movements—precisely the pattern currently visible on the Bitcoin chart. This channel reflects a near-term consolidation phase, allowing the market to absorb previous gains and establish a new equilibrium. A decisive breakout above the upper boundary of this channel, particularly when supported by increasing volume, would signal the resumption of the primary bullish trend. In such a scenario, a renewal of upward momentum could propel the market toward new all-time highs, aligning with the broader bullish market structure. DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Long
by MMBTtrader
41
Bitcoin Hits Heavy Support Zone — Is the Next Big Crash Coming?Recently, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) experienced another decline of over -10%, largely due to the sudden drop in the S&P 500( SP:SPX ). As I mentioned in previous ideas, in recent weeks, Bitcoin and the crypto market, especially Bitcoin, have shown a strong correlation with U.S. indices, particularly the S&P 500. This means that even technically sound analyses for Bitcoin can fail if we don’t consider these external factors, which is quite normal. Therefore, it’s crucial to incorporate all parameters—news, fundamentals, on-chain data, and relevant indices—to get an accurate Bitcoin analysis. This complexity can make things a bit challenging. Over the past ten days, Bitcoin has swiftly broken through several support levels. Many factors have contributed to Bitcoin’s decline recently, but it’s now approaching a heavy support zone($78,300-$71,280). This zone is crucial because if Bitcoin loses it, we could see even larger declines, affecting altcoins as well. Altcoins, in general, haven’t matched Bitcoin’s gains in recent months, so a significant drop in Bitcoin could lead to severe losses for them. It’s essential to manage your investments carefully and stay alert. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the recent decline suggests that Bitcoin might be in the midst of a five-wave downward, which isn’t positive news. There’s a chance that the heavy support zone($78,300-$71,280) might be breached. However, considering that weekends typically have lower trading volumes, it’s less likely that the support will break in the next couple of days. Still, we must remain vigilant and prepared for any scenario. In terms of Elliott Waves, it seems Bitcoin has completed its main wave 3, and we might be looking at the completion of the wave 4 over the weekend, with another push towards the heavy support zone($78,300-$71,280) at the start of next week. Also, the USDT.D% ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D ) chart looks bullish, which could not be good news for Bitcoin. I expect that after a brief rebound, Bitcoin will resume its decline and test the heavy support zone($78,300-$71,280) again. Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $89,642-$88,079 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $80,263-$78,131 First Target: $78,523 Second Target: $75,123 Stop Loss(SL): $92,123(Worst) Points may shift as the market evolves Note: The S&P 500 also might face downward pressure in the coming days, which could further impact Bitcoin’s support levels. It’s essential to manage your investments carefully and wait for strong reversal signals in higher timeframes. You might miss out on some short-term gains, but it will allow for more confident entries later on. Note: Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela are escalating day by day. Should these tensions intensify to the point of direct confrontation, it could act as a trigger for another Bitcoin decline. It’s important to keep this in mind. Note: Additionally, there have been some suspicious transfers involving the Mt. Gox exchange recently. It’s worth monitoring these developments closely. 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Short
by pejman_zwin
33
Why This Time Is Not Different — BTC Could Still Drop >50%Bitcoin is moving into a phase where long-term cycles matter more than whatever the market narrative happens to be this week. And if you look at those cycles, one thing becomes clear: BTC has never avoided a major drop after making a new ATH. 1. The timing keeps repeating — almost to the day Every big drawdown in Bitcoin’s history has lasted almost exactly the same amount of time: Cycle 1: 371 days Cycle 2: 378 days Cycle 3: 378 days again That kind of symmetry doesn’t happen by accident. It’s a pattern driven by liquidity, leverage, miner economics and investor behavior. Right now, BINANCE:BTCUSDT is lining up with that same timing structure once more. 2. The size of corrections is falling… but still huge Past drawdowns: –83% –77% The market is more mature now — more liquidity, more derivatives depth, more institutional money — so the volatility is naturally lower. But “lower volatility” in Bitcoin still means: 👉 –50% to –70% corrections And a drop in that range would land BTC somewhere around $40k–$50k, which is consistent with the historical pattern. 3. Market maturity doesn’t erase Bitcoin’s cycles Even with ETFs, institutional flows, and a stronger market structure, BTC still reacts to: leverage resets liquidity tightening miner selling pressure sentiment washouts These things don’t disappear just because the market grows. 4. What the full cycle is pointing to If the cycle keeps rhyming with the past: Potential bottom: roughly late 2026, at the end of another ~370–380 day drawdown Next peak: around 2028 Long-term target: $120k–$150k+ The rhythm remains the same: big drop → long consolidation → explosive recovery. Takeaway This time isn’t different. Even in a more “institutional” Bitcoin, the cycles still point to a >50% reset before the next major expansion.
Short
by OrbisInvestment
16
Bitcoin - H1 Breakout Alert – Bulls Taking Control!BTC/USDT - Bitcoin has officially broken its descending trendline and completed a successful retest from the demand zone. This shift signals a potential momentum reversal, with buyers stepping in aggressively after weeks of corrective price action. BINANCE:BTCUSDT 🔍 Technical Overview ✔️ Clean trendline breakout on H1 timeframe ✔️ Strong retest at demand zone → buyers defended perfectly ✔️ Price now trading above the trendline, indicating bullish structure ✔️ First target: $95,000 (psychological level + key resistance) ✔️ Second target: $100,000 (major psychological level) If bullish pressure continues, liquidity grabs above these zones could fuel an extended move. 📊 Fundamental Insight Institutional interest rises, especially around accumulation zones ETF inflows remain positive, boosting overall sentiment #BTC #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #Crypto #CryptoTrading #BitcoinAnalysis #TradingSetup #Breakout #TrendlineBreakout #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #Binance #CryptoMarket #Bullish 💬 Support the Idea If you found this analysis useful, 👉 Please LIKE 👍 and COMMENT 💬 Your support helps me share more setups daily! ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage risk (1–2% per trade) and follow your trading plan.
Long
by AM_AlphaTrading
15
The Market is at 80°C. What Happens at 100°C?Greetings, everyone. Today, I don't want to talk about the news. I want to talk about what truly matters: market structure. Many traders are currently looking for a news event to explain the current lull and predict Bitcoin's next move. They are looking in the wrong direction. Remember this: the news is not the cause of a move. It's just a convenient explanation handed to you after the move has already happened. For me, the chart is primary. And right now, it's telling a story that most people are not going to like. The Global Picture: An Economy of Bubbles and Boiling Water We live in an era of bubbles. We had the dot-coms, the tulip mania, and now we are witnessing the AI bubble. Yes, AI is a game-changer, and I am actively integrating it into all my processes - it would be foolish to deny this trend. But that doesn't change the fact that the markets are overheated. The entire global economy right now feels like water heated to 80 degrees Celsius. It’s not boiling yet, but the boiling point is near. Something is about to happen, and the steam is getting ready to burst out. The Market's Pulse: Where the Crowd Goes Wrong And what about the crowd? The crowd isn't in Bitcoin anymore. They are trapped in altcoins, having resigned themselves to being "forever waiters." They are praying for an altseason, not realizing that the brief 20-30% pump we saw - that was the altseason. It has already become a meme. I see endless posts about liquidations on social media. The sentiment is desperate. Most have already lost their futures positions or will lose them soon. What reigns in the market right now isn't fear or greed, but rather a slow realization that the bear market never really left. The Main Setup on the Chart: A Classic Liquidity Trap Now for the most important part - what is happening on the Bitcoin chart? As you can see, we are sitting on a critical trendline support. Everyone sees it. Novices and retail traders see this as a clear "buy the dip" signal. And that is part of the game. A deliberate trap is being set: Consolidation : The price is being intentionally held near the support line to create an illusion of strength and to accumulate buyers' positions. Stacking Stop-Losses : Market makers know that the crowd places their stops just below this obvious line. Execution : Once enough liquidity has been built up, a sharp breakdown will occur. This will trigger a cascade of stop-loss liquidations, which will only accelerate the fall. I remain fully on the bearish side until we see a confident break of the all-time high. I view any bounce from the current levels as an opportunity for a better entry into a short position. What's Next? What is my advice to myself for the next 2-4 weeks? Wait. The market is preparing for a great cleansing. A wave of delistings of junk projects and meme coins - which serve no one but the exchanges that use them for hype - is coming. After this cleanse, there will be incredible opportunities to buy at very attractive prices. Now is the time for deep research into the projects you truly believe in. It's time to get your limit orders ready and wait for the market to come to your prices. Thank you for your attention. Regards, Your EXCAVO.
Short
by EXCAVO
39
Final 2025 Forecast for BTCUSDT 24th November 2025 (Updated)Same idea as previous post, just zoomed in to see the potential gyrations towards to move towards ~$128k and hopefully beyond ✌️ 1. Friday session dip to around ~$81k 2. Pump to around ~$87k over the weekend 3. Dump down to ~$80k for Monday Trap 4. Black Friday Pump to ~$89k 5. Max Pain Dump to ~$75k-$79k 6. Final pump to ~$128k to end the cycle If we are lucky and price pullbacks from ~$128k and then exceeds it. Here are the targets I would be looking at; Target #1 $140k-$145k, Target #2 $170k-$175k Target #3 $200k-$205k This of course could be 100% wrong so remember (as always) to ruthlessly ✂️ cut your losers when wrong, and hold ✊ onto your winners when right. -- I might also add, come early December 1st - 5th the following celestial events will take place which support the run up to $128k (and possibly beyond); 1. Super Full Moon (“Cold Moon”) 🌖 • On December 4, 2025, there’s a nearly full moon (~98% illuminated).  • This will be a supermoon, meaning the Moon appears slightly larger and brighter than average.  • The Moon is in Taurus, and near the Pleiades (M45) — Taurus is represented no other than the Bull. Supermoons correlate with: • spikes in emotion • increased speculative behavior • temporary liquidity expansions • bigger candles (up OR down) A near-super full moon tends to: • mark volatility apexes • precede relief rallies • create short-term “energy reversals” 2. Moon–Jupiter conjunction (Dec 7) — traditionally expansive 🌖 Jupiter is symbolically linked with: • expansion • optimism • big moves • risk-on thinking • growth • speculation When the Moon (sentiment) aligns with Jupiter (expansion), it often coincides with: • higher risk appetite • FOMO • bullish short-term flows In Summary; 1. Moon–Jupiter conjunction (Dec 7) → Expansive, optimistic, risk-on symbolism 2. Super Full Moon (Dec 4) → Volatility peak → Reversal → Upward burst
by MrTobiasRieper
11
BITCOIN – THE TIDES ARE TURNING Traders, On November 5 I mapped out a scenario where Bitcoin would push into 107k to 108k and then decline to 98k first and 89k second. This entire scenario has now played out perfectly to the pixel. We swept 108k, we dumped to 98k, and then we flushed into 89k. Where I expected price to retrace from exactly this level: $88.912 So the real question now is simple. What now? Do we break lower, or do we go up? Let’s break Bitcoin down cleanly, without bias, and only by reading structure, levels, and order flow. Levels, Structure and Order Flow AVWAP at the core of the structure Bitcoin is currently trading right near the AVWAP from the 06 August 24 anchor. This is the blue line on your chart and the exact level is 90.881. This anchor began with a large volume impulse. When heavy volume kicks off a leg, the AVWAP from that point becomes a core reference level for the entire future auction. We are now sitting right on top of it, which is exactly where you would expect absorption or a strong reaction. The market is basically deciding if this AVWAP will hold or break. AB=CD completion The full AB=CD measured move has completed exactly into the AVWAP zone. This is a clean harmonic completion and adds confluence to why price reacted here. AB=CD means the downside leg is symmetrical and usually marks exhaustion inside a trend. Fixed Range Volume Profile Using a FRVP from the start of the current HTF auction (07 April until now), we see price wicked directly into the LVN that sits inside the weekly FVG. This area had imbalance and low participation. A wick into an LVN inside an FVG often means that the inefficiency is now cleaned and the auction has reached completion for that side of the range. Wedge breakout Bitcoin technically broke out of the falling wedge, but the breakout does not look clean. We are outside the wedge, but momentum on the breakout is weak. True confirmation would come if price re-enters the wedge from the outside and climbs back through the wedge body. Re-entering the wedge tells you that the breakdown was liquidity and not a structural continuation. If we reclaim it, upside targets become more likely. Order Flow – What the data shows Spot and Futures CVD Across the 15m, 30m and 1h charts, Spot CVD is forming a bullish divergence. Price keeps making lower lows, but Spot CVD is holding higher. This shows that spot buyers are stepping in at the lows and absorbing sell pressure. Futures CVD on both stablecoin margined and coin margined contracts continues to push lower. Price is not following these lower lows. This creates hidden bullish divergence and confirms that aggressive sellers are hitting the market while limit buyers are absorbing the pressure. This is a classic sign of absorption. Selling continues, but the market is refusing to break lower with the same intensity. Open Interest – A shift Earlier in the dump, Open Interest was falling. This means positions were being closed. Most of this was shorts taking profit or exiting the move. When OI drops during a downtrend, continuation becomes harder because the move loses fuel. Near the end of the screenshots, there is a shift. Both stablecoin margined and coin margined OI start to rise again. This rise in OI happens while: CVD continues to make lower lows Price stops making new lows Price begins to stabilize This tells us that new positions are being opened at the lows. Given the CVD behavior, most of these are new shorts entering the market. When new shorts enter and price does not break, the probability of those shorts becoming trapped increases. If buyers step in, this setup often leads to a short squeeze. This is how reversals form in a controlled market. Funding rate – Binance Funding is positive but very small. This means there is no extreme long pressure. There is no overcrowding on the long side. The market is not stretched. With fresh shorts entering at the lows and funding staying neutral, the market can turn quickly if support holds. What this means The combination of: Spot CVD divergence Hidden bullish divergence on futures CVD Rising Open Interest at the lows Neutral funding Price refusing to break down - So price needs to hold. shows that the market is absorbing aggressive selling at a key level. If buyers defend the current level, this can force newly opened shorts to cover, which would fuel the next move up. Targets 109k This is the first upside objective. There is a CME ETH gap resting at this level and gaps of this type tend to get filled. 109k also aligns with the 1.113 Fibonacci extension of the latest wave. This makes it the first logical level if price continues to hold the AVWAP and absorb selling pressure. 112k The next major level is 112k. This area contains single prints on CME and matches an AVWAP level on the BTC CME chart. 112k also lines up with the 1.272 extension of the wave. From a Fibonacci rotation perspective, 1.272 is the next stop after 1.113 and often acts as a mid-cycle continuation target. 118.800 The final target sits at 118.800. This is the full 1.618 extension of the wave and mathematically completes the auction. If the market rotates from AVWAP support, this level becomes the natural endpoint of the move. As long as price continues to hold the AVWAP at 90.881 and the market keeps absorbing futures selling, all three upside targets remain in play. Invalidation The structure changes only if price breaks below 88k. A clean drop under 88k opens the door for the next major high timeframe support at 85k. 85k carries strong confluence. It aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement on the HTF move and sits directly on a Point of Control zone within the Fixed Range Volume Profile. Below that level, the auction shifts into a lower structure entirely. TLDR Bitcoin completed the downside scenario perfectly. Price is now sitting directly on the AVWAP at 90.881. AB=CD is complete. LVN inside weekly FVG has been cleaned. Futures CVD is still pressing lower but price is not. That is absorption. But the key update is OI. OI was dropping earlier on the LTF, but now OI is rising again, and this is happening while CVD continues down and price holds steady. That means new shorts are entering the market and getting absorbed. If AVWAP holds, expect a bounce. Targets: 109k 112k 118.8k If 88k breaks, 85k is next. -------- Abbreviation List AVWAP Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price. A dynamic support or resistance level based on volume since a chosen anchor. AB=CD A harmonic measured move where AB equals CD. FRVP Fixed Range Volume Profile. Shows where volume was traded inside a chosen range. LVN Low Volume Node. A low interest level where price often rejects strongly. FVG Fair Value Gap. An imbalance left by aggressive price moves. CVD Cumulative Volume Delta. Tracks buying vs selling pressure. OI Open Interest. The amount of open futures positions. POC Point of Control. Level with the highest traded volume. -------- If you like this kind of analysis, drop a like and leave a comment. Everything here is shared for free so more people can cut through the noise and finally see what is actually happening under the surface. No hopium. No fear. Just real data, real structure, and real order flow. The goal is simple. To help traders stop guessing and start understanding what the market is actually saying. Stay sharp. Stay objective. And remember… the chart whispers long before it speaks. - ThetaNomad
by ThetaNomad
13
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #226👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let’s dive into today’s Bitcoin analysis. Our new short triggers have activated, and the market is continuing its downward movement. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe After Bitcoin made a fake downward move yesterday, today it formed a lower high below 93,555, and after breaking the 90,489 and 88,825 levels, it is now continuing strongly to the downside. ⭐ A very large amount of selling volume has entered the market, giving full control to the sellers. The downtrend is continuing with strong momentum. ✨ The next support levels are 85,846 and 83,333.If you already have open short positions, you can use these levels for partial profit-taking. ✔️ The RSI oscillator is currently in the oversold zone, around 21.53.Breaking this level could push the bearish move even further.However, if RSI gets supported here, momentum may weaken, and a correction could begin. 💡 If a correction happens, the resistance zones to watch are 88,825 and 90,489.Our main confirmation for a trend reversal will still come after breaking 93,555. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Short
by tradecitypro
10
BTC - Another (Drastic) Possibility For those who have been following my bitcoin short ideas, another possibility in this movement that I urge you NOT TO DISCREDIT so easily: We see a flash crash / wick beginning from 89,000-89,500 region - and we drop straight to sub 10,000 My expected bottom of this wick is precisely 7,250 Now why would this happen, or be possible? DXY is breaking down a major multi year bearish structure. This means the US dollar will fall in value over the next years, and lead to one of the largest bull markets we’ve ever witnessed on stocks, equities, and securities. Bitcoin has been steadily rising and collecting not only long position stop loss orders, but liquidation orders for all the leveraged buys (including Microstrategy). This leaves a massive chain reaction of sell orders ready to trigger off, one into the next, below price. As price falls, more liquidity is removed and more sell orders are filled - this equals a drop at incredible speed that does not stop until there are no more orders. So while I have been urging a 3 way corrective drop as such: 89,500 to 34,800 34,800 to 61,000-63,000 61,000 to 8,000 It’s entirely possible we see the following: 89,500 to 8,000 Happy trading, - DD
Short
by DickDandy
14