Trade ideas
BITCOIN... THE DROP IS NOT OVER YET!I see a lot of people fomo-ing to buy the dip, but I don't think this is the bottom yet. At least, that is not what my technical analysis is showing me.
I am expecting Bitcoin to likely go down to the 100k level again, maybe even less to 95k. The question is, will it go back up from there? I think there is a good possibility to make new all-time highs. BUT, if it does not show support or bounce hard, and higher timeframe candles start to close lower, this could mean quite bad things for crypto..
Let's wait and see..
Trade safe!
- R2F
BTCUSDT — Monthly Peak Confirmed: Distribution Phase BeginsBTCUSDT — Monthly Peak Confirmed: Distribution Phase Begins
Bitcoin has just flashed a Monthly Peak Confirmation, hinting that the market may have entered its distribution zone after a two-year bull run.
1. The Origin of the Wave:
The current bullish wave began on October 1st, 2023, when BTC traded around $34,639.
From that level, price climbed relentlessly until September 1st, 2025, marking a top near $119,000.
Anyone who bought at the wave’s origin would be sitting on more than $90,000 profit per BTC after almost two years.
2. Key Pullback Opportunities:
Throughout the uptrend, BTC offered three clear pullback entries:
June 5th, 2024
August 20th, 2024
April 12th, 2025
Each of these corrections gave profitable continuation entries before the final monthly peak.
3. Current Status (October 14th, 2025):
BTC trades near $115,000, only slightly below the all-time high.
However, the chart structure shows that Monthly Peak = Confirmed, implying the start of an ATH distribution phase — the moment when large holders quietly reduce exposure.
4. Forward Outlook:
We now anticipate a SWING SHORT setup developing on the Monthly timeframe.
Target: $77,000 — a long and deep retracement expected to unfold over several months.
This is not a flash crash scenario but a slow, heavy correction marking the end of the bull cycle and transition into consolidation.
Summary:
Bitcoin has completed its two-year impulse wave from $34K to $119K.
Monthly peak confirmed → distribution started → next macro opportunity lies on the short side.
BTC/USD ANALYSISBitcoin is currently sitting in a strong demand zone, a beautiful area that could trigger a new ATH (All-Time High).
According to my analysis, we’re now in the final wave of wave 5 in the Elliott Wave structure.
This phase could mark the end of the bullish cycle, with one last strong push to a new high before a major correction takes place.
🎯 Likely scenario:
Short to mid-term bullish continuation
New ATH possible from this zone
Then a significant drop once wave 5 completes
🕰️ Patience and risk management — the last wave often traps the market.
BTC/USDT Short Set-up High-frequency test strategy
#1
BTC/USDT Short Set-up
— Retest of the all-time high, two reversal signals on higher timeframes, higher timeframe divergence still unplayed, declining volume
— Entry: $121,500 (market sell)
— Stop: $130,600 (7.5%)
— Target: $109000
Risk per trade: 0.5% of total balance
Position size: 7% of total balance, 10x leverage
RR 1:1.36
Bitcoin Looks Ready for a Bullish Move — Sellers Losing MomentumIt seems Bitcoin has rested enough and might be gearing up for an upward move. Despite multiple attempts from sellers to push the price lower, they failed to gain control, which increases the probability of a bullish breakout.
In the recent candles, we can clearly see that red candles are getting smaller, and volume is also decreasing — a strong indication that selling pressure is fading. This adds further confirmation for a potential upward continuation.
Long trigger: $115,792
Short trigger (in case of a fake breakout): $113,610
Keep a close eye on Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D). If dominance turns red while Bitcoin moves up, it’s a signal that altcoins could offer stronger long opportunities during this move.
💡 If you open a long position, I suggest holding it rather than taking early profits — there’s a chance we might see a strong bullish reaction soon.
BTCUSDT - is it good time to buy?BTCUSDT appears to be in a distribution phase after recent highs. I’ll wait for a breakout above 113,333 to confirm renewed bullish momentum and look for buy opportunities from that level.
However, if price shows strength below the resistance, I plan to short on strength with a stop loss at 114,000.
For a long-term buying setup, my ideal accumulation zone lies around 94,200 – 96,700, where I’ll be looking for potential reversal signs and fresh entries.
The bull run is over? My next tradeIn this space, you’ll find my long-term outlook on Bitcoin 🪙 — helping you see the bigger picture of what’s been happening in the market over the past week 📉📈
🔥 You’ll get insight into:
🔑 Key levels to watch for your trading or investing strategy
💡 The next profitable trade to position yourself for
🧭 A clear perspective on where Bitcoin could be headed next
Yes, we’ve seen a crazy drop 😱 — but this is not the time to panic.
It’s time to pause, think, and plan your next move 🧠💪
🎥 Watch the full video for my detailed breakdown and upcoming trade setups! 🚀
BTC LONG SETUP 1HAfter a sharp drop, BTC has formed a clear reversal pattern around the demand zone (110–111k).
Currently, price is consolidating in a bullish flag structure right above support — indicating potential continuation to the upside.
🎯 Targets: 117.3k – 119.4k – 123.2k
🛑 Invalidation: Below 110k zone
💡 As long as this structure holds, expecting bullish continuation towards the upper supply region.
#Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #PriceAction #CryptoTrading #TradingSetup #LongSetup #TechnicalAnalysis
Where is #BTC support?📊Where is #BTC support?
🧠The market has seen a dramatic scene! The price has recovered, but most people have lost their money! This just goes to show the importance of risk management! I'm glad my expectations have aligned with market developments. Going forward, we'll continue to be bullish and focus on long positions. Long-term short positions should be sought above 132k.
➡️Based on the current structure, aggressive support is around 112,700, and extreme support is around 108,000.
🤜If you like my analysis, please like 💖 and share 💬
BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
BITCOIN Is Playing In a Crucial Area 📍 BTC (Higher Timeframe)
📉 Last night, the market witnessed one of the sharpest and most terrifying crashes in crypto history — and as most of you probably know, the fundamental reason behind it was the U.S. imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products.
👉 In this analysis, we’ll take a comprehensive look at Bitcoin on the higher timeframes, so let’s get started.
📥 As shown in the chart, we’re facing a highly reliable trendline that has been forming since November 2022. Every time the price has touched this line, we’ve seen a strong bullish reversal.
📊 Last night, the price once again reacted to this trendline with a large wick and showed a solid rebound.
👉 In addition to that, there’s also a strong static resistance around the $107,000 level, and currently, the price is consolidating above this zone.
📥 Overall, from a technical perspective, no major structural change has occurred in Bitcoin’s chart, and if the price manages to break above the $123,000 level, it could potentially form a new high around $136,330.
BTCUSDT.P - We are not probably out of the woods yetCRYPTOCAP:BTC Ideas to think of. Probably not out of the woods yet.
This on-going pump is very likely to be dead cat bounce and we might be heading some more downside.
Bull market over? Don't think so. I think we have better odds than former World Ski Jump Champion and Olympic Medalist Matti Nykaenen have said 'it's fifty sixty'.😄
Leave me your thoughts on the comments, would love to hear them to get more ideas on the table. Maybe I missed something?
13/10/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $126,237.39
Last weeks low: $102,038.44
Midpoint: $114,137.92
Well that was an interesting week... A small reminder that when Trump talks about tariffs the markets move, and move fast!
From All-Time-High at the beginning of the week to a -19.2% move, a single hourly candle had -10.56% drawdown alone!
What can be learnt from this? Despite all the technical analysis in the world, if the President of the United States makes an announcement it can shift the market greatly causing a leverage unwind via liquidations that cascade aggressively. Although these large scale crashes are rare, they are inevitable in this market and this will not be the last of its kind.
This week will be very interesting because generally we do see a lot of backfilling the wick which would mean revisiting the key S/R level at 0.25 ($108,000). The bulls would not want to see price acceptance under this level or IMO this is the beginning of a bearish shift in HTF structure. This potential shift in structure would also line up with the 4 year cycle theory as October marks the end of the bull market.
On the other hand, the bounce from the low has been strong, although still some way off the origin of the dump a lot of ground has been recovered. In the past these liquidation events have marked local lows in the market and serve as a launchpad for the next leg up. I do think it's too early to tell if that is the case this time around, I am in no rush to position either way until at least Mondays range is established.
The altcoin market took a far worse turn, majors sinking as much as 80% in a single move! This week will be important to learn what projects are truly supported/fundamentally sound by how they recover.
Projects such as: ZEC, TAO, ANYONE and BNB have all closed higher than their original price before the crash, other projects may never recover.
Good luck this week everybody!
Sweep all liquidity, BTC recoversBTCUSD – Daily Analysis
The recent market move confirmed our earlier sell call at the 126K top, which played out perfectly as price reversed sharply from that resistance zone. This level aligned with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and the upper trendline — a strong confluence area that signaled exhaustion.
Currently, BTC is rebounding from the support zone around 110K–111K, showing short-term recovery momentum. However, unless price breaks decisively above 121K, the structure still favors a potential retest toward 110K before any larger bullish continuation.
→ Key Levels:
• Resistance: 121K / 126K
• Support: 110K / 107K
• Trend: Short-term corrective uptrend within a broader range
✅ Successfully caught the 126K top — next focus on reaction around 121K zone.
BTCUSDT – When the U.S.–China Trade War Fills Bitcoin’s SailsTrade tensions have resurfaced after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese exports. The renewed fear of a trade war has pushed investors toward decentralized assets like gold and Bitcoin as a hedge against uncertainty. While the USD saw a slight uptick, the risk-off sentiment has driven capital into BTC — now viewed as a modern safe-haven asset.
On the daily chart, BTC continues to maintain its bullish structure within a broad ascending channel that has been in place since June. After a sharp drop to the $108,000 support zone, strong buying pressure quickly stepped in, forming a long-tailed candle — a clear sign that the bulls are still in control. If the price holds above $110,000, BTC is likely to extend its recovery toward the next major resistance around $128,000 in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin Still Has Strong Support Zones — Don’t Lose Hope YetDuring the recent drop from $121,000, Bitcoin didn’t find any strong support levels to hold the price. As I’ve mentioned before, a healthy uptrend must include corrections — otherwise, when correction finally comes, it tends to be deep and aggressive.
That said, there’s still room for further downside, but this time, we have several key support zones that won’t be easily broken:
$108,551 – $109,227
$107,045 – $107,419
$104,783 – $105,395
The reason I’m highlighting these areas is to remind you that each of these zones could act as a potential reversal point, providing buyers with a chance to support the market. So, the situation is not hopeless — the market can still recover from these levels.
If you decide to take a short position, make sure to take profit quickly, close your position, or at least set it to breakeven, since we’re approaching strong demand zones.
As for long positions, I believe it’s still too early — I prefer to wait and see how Bitcoin builds its next price structure before entering.
If Bitcoin dominance starts showing green candles, altcoins might perform better for short trades.
BTC is still bullishOn Friday, amid euphoric bullish sentiment on BTC that even I was part of to an extent, President Donald J. Trump, of the United States Announced 100% Tarriffs on China... Not to go into too much detail, but there was a flash crash on all assets; Bitcoin one of them.
Here, I highlight my bullish bias for two simple reasons
1. The flash crash could not break below 100k and quickly rebounded... That signals profit taking at a specific level, I anticipate repricing below the flash crash low for smart money to accumulate new longs, we are still inside of the orderblock/innefficiency so there is a high chance we fail to actually trade much below it and rebound once more from that level.
Reason 2: It's bitcoin c'mon, we are bullish.
Real Reason 2: Check out the monthly chart here, people fail to zoom out, that is why they succumb to fear almost immediately something unexpected happens, but in reality, it was supposed to happen a long time ago, it just put it off long enough to fool exit liquidity
There is a monthly inefficiency just below the low put in in June, so yes, I'm bullish.
See you later.
BTC Game Plan - DTB ModelBTC Game Plan – DTB Model
📊 Market Sentiment
After the sharp 10/10 crash triggered by Trump’s announcement of up to 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, risk assets — especially altcoins — faced massive liquidation, with some dropping over 80%.
As of 12/10, headlines indicate that Trump may reach out to President Xi, with Vice President Vance clarifying the statement. The market reacted bullishly, showing a strong rebound.
However, sentiment remains neutral, as volatility persists and geopolitical uncertainty continues to influence short-term direction.
📈 Technical Analysis
BTC retraced into the HTF Demand Zone, running the daily swing liquidity inside it.
Additionally, price retested the bearish trendline, confirming it as a key technical pivot.
Currently, BTC is attempting to recover toward the equilibrium (0.5 Fibonacci) of the recent decline.
📘 Model to be used – Demand to Trendline Break (DTB Model)
1-Identify HTF trend and valid demand zones.
2-Wait for liquidity sweep inside demand for energy confirmation.
3-Watch for price recovery toward equilibrium (0.5 fib).
4-Confirm with a strong close above bearish trendline and equilibrium for entry signal.
📌 Game Plan
I’ll be waiting for BTC to break and close above the 0.5 Fibonacci (equilibrium) and the orange bearish trendline. That will be the first confirmation that the bearish phase may end, and momentum may shift to the upside.
🎯 Setup Trigger
Daily strong close above the orange bearish trendline and 0.5 Fibonacci equilibrium level.
📋 Trade Management
Stoploss: Below $107,500 (protecting capital is more important than chasing profits)
Target: $126,300 (near previous all-time highs)
💬 Like, follow, and comment if this breakdown supports your trading! More setups and market insights coming soon — stay connected!
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always DYOR before making any financial decisions.
BTC The Liquidation Before the PumpIn the past 24 hours, the crypto market has experienced a significant wave of liquidations, with estimates ranging from several hundred million to over one billion USD. Bitcoin’s share of these liquidations appears relatively modest—amounting to tens of millions—while the majority of forced exits have occurred in altcoins and leveraged positions.
After briefly dipping toward the $100K level, Bitcoin’s price action formed a substantial downside wick, suggesting an area that sellers may look to retest should further downward pressure persist.
I’m currently watching for a potential scalp short opportunity just below $120K, as overall crypto enthusiasm—particularly in altcoins—appears to be fading. That said, even if the price revisits the $100K zone, I wouldn’t turn excessively bearish. Historically, similar periods of panic have coincided with major market bottoms, such as during the COVID crash, which ultimately preceded a parabolic rally.
Additionally, I’ve identified what may be a complex Elliott Wave structure known as a Triple Combination Correction, consisting of multiple ABC (three-wave zigzag) formations. Elliott characterized these as corrective patterns that often maintain mathematical relationships to preceding waves—relationships that can be measured using a trend-based Fibonacci extension across the three initial pivots. Traders commonly refer to such projections as “measured moves.”
This price behavior also aligns with Wyckoff’s principles of distribution, in which the secondary X-wave represents the UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) before price retraces toward the origin of the W-wave.
For additional confluence, I’m monitoring key support areas such as the previous low VWAP. For now, however, my primary focus remains on observing the likelihood of a bounce between $98K and $100K, based on the outlined technical structures.
BTC market snapshotBTC — there’s a lot of talk online about a coordinated exchange dump, but I seriously doubt it. Exchanges have been clipping over-leveraged traders for years; why would they need a one-time dump? Traders will just come back anyway.
What I *do* believe in is the coordinated narrative — “HODL forever,” “altseason is starting,” “we’re rich already,” etc. — actively pushed by bot farms on social media, even during dips. That’s often the best strong-buy entry point. Buying *is* necessary, but selectively, and I’m not sure it’s the right moment yet.
From the current levels, there’s a chance for a slight rebound. I’m waiting for the formation of a consolidation range to better understand where to place the stop for my next short.