20250907_BTCUSDT.P PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT EVENTSIf CPI next announcement meet Wall street expectation, price will go up
FED announce rate cut, price go down
But from 20-Sep onward, BTCUSDT may recover and ATH
Target BTCUSDT $135,000
BTCUST.P trade ideas
BTC Price Prediction and Elliott Wave AnalysisHello friends,
>> Thank you for joining me in my analysis.
- As I mentioned in my previous idea, we are still moving in this micro correction X likely the pink color here, I have make an adjustment for the idea of creating irregular mini correction wave to become ending of the first wave A.
- now we have this movement in the white wave B, maybe it finished diectly or we will watch another correction to form wxy OR we will watch irregular flat pattern after breaking 113400 level. I am waiting to watch that.
>> Reminder:
* For the bigger imagination of the BTC path, we are still moving into the Orange wave A of the final White C for ABC from its beginning.
* For the smaller imagination of the BTC path, we are still moving into the Blue wave B of the final Green C for the upper Orange wave A.
* For the tighter imagination of the BTC path, I think we are still moving into the correction wave A for the upper Blue wave B.
Keep liking and supporting me to continue. See you soon!
Thanks, bros
Fib Projection Theory - BTC TOP $169,000I’ve been testing a Fibonacci projection method that I believe uncovers hidden tops before they form. The premise is simple: if Fibonacci retracement levels don’t align with price action, the move isn’t finished. By adjusting the fib “top” until levels align with historical support and resistance, we can project where the true macro top should be.
On Bitcoin’s monthly chart, this method points to an approximate top near $169,000.
⸻
The Theory: “Fib Alignment”
• Normally, Fibonacci retracements are drawn from swing low → swing high.
• But if the chosen top is not the true top, the retracement levels won’t “respect” historical pivots — price slices through or ignores them.
• By dragging the fib higher until the levels snap into alignment with prior cycle resistances and supports, the eventual swing high is revealed.
This isn’t classical fib usage. It behaves more like a hybrid between linear retracements and logarithmic fib extensions.
⸻
Bitcoin’s Current Setup
1. Fib from 2022 bottom → 124k (current high):
• 0.236, 0.382, and 0.618 do not align with key monthly levels.
• Market structure feels “off.”
2. Fib from 2022 bottom → 169k projected top:
• 0.236 (~120k) matches current resistance zone.
• 0.382 (~85k–90k) aligns with prior rejection/support.
• 0.618 (~55k–57k) = dead-on with the 2021 cycle top.
• 0.786 (~39k) = historically critical demand zone.
When extended to ~$169k, the fib levels align perfectly across the monthly structure — retroactively validating the projection.
⸻
Confluence With Log Extensions
Interestingly, this “alignment top” also corresponds with the 0.618 extension target on log-scale fibs, which many traders use as long-term take-profit levels.
In other words:
• My method (drag until aligned)
• Classical log fib extensions
…both converge around $169,000 BTC.
⸻
Implications
• If this framework holds, BTC’s current move is not complete.
• A macro cycle top around $169k is the level where Fibonacci alignment finally “snaps into place.”
• After such a top, retracements to 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618 would define the next bear market structure.
⸻
Conclusion
This “Fib Alignment Theory” is experimental, but backtesting shows creepy accuracy on multiple assets and timeframes. Bitcoin’s monthly chart strongly suggests the true macro top lies around $169,000.
If price respects this projection, the market will have validated a powerful new way to use Fibonacci — one that looks forward, not backward.
$BTC short scalpslooking at some quick scalps on BTC
- OTE of the leg down
- weekend range VAH retest > VAL rotation
- mid range of hourly price
- hrlr liquidity below
will wait for an m5 break of structure before shorting
Bitcoin Quick Buy Opportunity for Quick TradersBTC,
Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a tight consolidation range, caught between a descending trendline and an ascending trendline on the 1-hour chart.
The price is forming a potential compression pattern, which often precedes a breakout.
while volume spikes indicate active demand around the green zone.
Additionally, there are visible whale buy orders and volume confirmation near the ascending trendline shown in the chart, strong enough to potentially push the price higher.
These orders are clustered around 110,650.
I will follow a strategy and enter from the same level.
My plan is as follows:
✅ Entry: Buy if price retraces to green line 110,650
🎯 Target 1: 111,250
🎯 Target 2: 111,600
Please keep monitoring this setup, as I use strategies based on observing supply and demand flows.
I will update you with any changes in entry points, targets, or shifts in order book dynamics.
Important Note:
This is not financial advice.
I am only sharing my own trades and personal analysis, which reflect my individual perspective.
Please always do your own research.
Good luck in your trades.
Best Regards 🌹
Corrective up for BitcoinHi traders,
Bitcoin moved exactly as I-ve predicted in my previous outlook.
After it finished the first downmove we saw the start of the next corrective upmove.
Now we could see the corrective upmove continue to the orange B area.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: This is not the right time to trade Bitcoin.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
btc long Quick Recap:
Bitcoin is coiling in a tight consolidation near the $110,700 level, effectively flat on the day. This is a healthy pause after the recent move, allowing the market to build energy for its next directional impulse. My bias remains bullish above key support.
Key Technical Observations:
Successful Retest in Progress: The price is currently retesting the ~$110,600 - $110,700 zone, which previously acted as resistance. This is classic bullish market behavior—old resistance becomes new support. The defense of this level so far is technically constructive.
Bullish Structure Intact: The higher low structure from the $109,600 swing low remains unchallenged. As long as we hold above this key support confluence, the path of least resistance remains upward toward $111,200 and beyond.
Low Volume Consolidation: The low volume (151.69K BTC) during this pullback suggests a lack of aggressive selling. This looks more like order accumulation and profit-taking, not a distribution top.
What I'm Watching:
My Bullish Scenario (Preferred): I am looking for signs of buyer absorption here at support. A strong bullish rejection candle (hammer, bullish engulfing) on this 15m chart, followed by a break back above $110,900, would signal the consolidation is over and the next leg up to $111,200+ has begun. This would be my signal to add to/add long positions.
Invalidation Scenario: The bullish thesis is invalidated on a decisive break and close below $110,600 with momentum. This would likely trigger a deeper flush toward $109,600. While not my base case, I have my stop-losses defined just below this support zone to manage risk.
Conclusion:
The dip is being bought, and the structure favors the bulls. This tight range is a spring coiling. I'm long-biased and looking for a confirmed bounce from this support zone to target the next resistance level. Risk management, as always, is key.
BTC 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 34💀 Hey, how's it going ? Come over here — Satoshi got something for you!
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 1-hour timeframe timeframe.
👀 On the 1H timeframe for Bitcoin, we can see that after yesterday’s NFP news, Bitcoin moved toward its resistance levels but then faced a very strong rejection. Personally, I expected some big green candles after that news. Right now, Bitcoin is consolidating, and the top and bottom of this range should be considered as breakout zones.
⚙️ The key RSI levels for Bitcoin are around 42 and 53. Once RSI breaks out of this range, Bitcoin can start its new move following the impacts of yesterday.
🕯 The size and volume of the red candles after the news increased sharply, and with one strong selling-pressure candle, the price dropped from the top of the range to the bottom.
💵📊 On the 1H timeframe for USDT.D, we can see that after yesterday’s news it had a very strong reaction from its support area and, with one massive hourly whale candle, pushed up toward its resistance at 4.49%. From there, it got rejected with several red candles and formed a higher low compared to its previous bottom. Keep in mind that if 4.49% is broken, Bitcoin could go into a deeper correction.
🔔 The alert zones for Bitcoin are the top and bottom of this range, which can give us entry signals. Our long alert zone is at 11,600$, and if this level breaks, Bitcoin could move higher. On the other hand, 11,056$ is our short alert zone, and with a breakdown of this level and selling pressure, Bitcoin could push toward lower levels.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
Risks in International Markets1. Economic Risks
1.1 Exchange Rate Volatility
Currency fluctuations are one of the most prominent risks in international trade and investment. A company exporting goods may see profits wiped out if the foreign currency weakens against its home currency.
Example: An Indian IT company billing clients in U.S. dollars may face reduced revenues when the rupee strengthens against the dollar.
1.2 Inflation and Deflation
High inflation erodes purchasing power, increases input costs, and disrupts profit margins. Conversely, deflation can reduce demand and stall economic activity.
Example: Argentina’s chronic inflation crisis often discourages foreign investors who fear value erosion.
1.3 Interest Rate Fluctuations
Central banks’ monetary policies impact borrowing costs and investment flows. An unexpected hike in interest rates in one country may cause sudden capital flight from emerging markets.
Example: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes often trigger volatility in Asian and African markets.
1.4 Recession and Economic Slowdowns
Global recessions reduce demand for exports, depress commodity prices, and weaken consumer confidence.
Example: The 2008 global financial crisis led to massive declines in cross-border trade and investment.
2. Financial Risks
2.1 Credit and Default Risks
Companies operating in international markets face the risk of counterparties defaulting on payments.
Example: During the 1997 Asian financial crisis, many firms defaulted, leaving global suppliers unpaid.
2.2 Liquidity Risks
Some foreign markets lack depth, meaning it may be difficult to sell assets quickly without losses.
2.3 Market Volatility
Stock, bond, and commodity markets in emerging economies are often more volatile due to low investor confidence, political instability, or weak regulations.
Example: The Russian stock market has historically experienced extreme volatility linked to sanctions and oil price movements.
2.4 Capital Flow Reversals
Large and sudden withdrawals of foreign portfolio investments can destabilize markets.
3. Political Risks
3.1 Government Instability
Frequent changes in government, corruption, or coups create uncertainty.
Example: Political turmoil in Pakistan often deters foreign direct investment.
3.2 Nationalization and Expropriation
Governments may seize control of foreign assets.
Example: Venezuela nationalized foreign oil companies in the 2000s, leading to billion-dollar losses for firms like ExxonMobil.
3.3 Geopolitical Conflicts
Wars, sanctions, and territorial disputes disrupt supply chains and investments.
Example: The Russia-Ukraine conflict caused global energy and food price spikes.
3.4 Protectionism
Tariffs, quotas, and restrictions limit free trade.
Example: The U.S.–China trade war imposed heavy tariffs, hurting exporters worldwide.
4. Legal and Regulatory Risks
4.1 Differing Legal Systems
What is legal in one country may be illegal in another.
Example: Intellectual property protection is strong in the U.S. but weak in some Asian economies, leading to counterfeiting risks.
4.2 Taxation Policies
Double taxation or unexpected tax reforms can erode profits.
4.3 Contract Enforcement
Weak judicial systems may delay or prevent resolution of business disputes.
4.4 Compliance and Standards
Businesses must comply with varying labor, safety, and environmental laws across markets.
5. Cultural and Social Risks
5.1 Consumer Preferences
Products that succeed in one country may fail elsewhere due to cultural differences.
Example: Walmart struggled in Germany because its retail culture clashed with German shopping habits.
5.2 Communication Barriers
Misunderstandings due to language or etiquette can harm negotiations.
5.3 Labor Relations
Different countries have unique labor practices and union dynamics.
5.4 Social Unrest
Strikes, protests, or civil movements can disrupt operations.
6. Technological Risks
6.1 Cybersecurity Threats
Cross-border businesses face heightened risks of hacking, fraud, and cyber-espionage.
Example: Global ransomware attacks like WannaCry hit companies operating internationally.
6.2 Technological Obsolescence
Rapid innovation means products and processes can quickly become outdated.
6.3 Digital Divide
Operating in markets with poor digital infrastructure limits efficiency.
7. Environmental and Natural Risks
7.1 Climate Change
Rising sea levels, extreme weather, and changing agricultural patterns disrupt global supply chains.
Example: Floods in Thailand (2011) severely disrupted global automobile and electronics supply chains.
7.2 Natural Disasters
Earthquakes, hurricanes, or pandemics can shut down markets overnight.
Example: The COVID-19 pandemic brought unprecedented disruption to international trade.
7.3 Environmental Regulations
Stricter global climate policies increase compliance costs.
8. Operational Risks
8.1 Supply Chain Disruptions
Globalized production systems are highly vulnerable to bottlenecks.
Example: The 2021 Suez Canal blockage caused billions in trade losses.
8.2 Infrastructure Limitations
Poor roads, ports, and logistics reduce efficiency.
8.3 Management Complexity
Coordinating diverse teams across countries increases risks of inefficiency.
9. Case Studies
2008 Global Financial Crisis – Showed how interconnected financial systems amplify risks.
Brexit – Created uncertainty for businesses operating across the UK and EU.
COVID-19 Pandemic – Highlighted vulnerabilities in supply chains and global health systems.
U.S.–China Trade War – Demonstrated how political tensions affect global markets.
10. Risk Mitigation Strategies
Hedging against currency and commodity risks.
Diversification across markets and sectors.
Political risk insurance for investments in volatile regions.
Robust compliance programs for navigating legal risks.
Cultural training for international teams.
Digital security investments to counter cyber threats.
Supply chain resilience through multiple sourcing and local alternatives.
Conclusion
International markets present immense opportunities for growth and diversification. However, these opportunities are shadowed by complex risks ranging from currency volatility and political instability to technological disruptions and environmental challenges.
For investors, corporations, and policymakers, success lies not in avoiding risks but in understanding, anticipating, and managing them strategically. A structured approach to risk assessment, combined with adaptive strategies, enables global players to thrive in uncertain environments.
The modern world demands resilience—businesses must prepare for shocks, governments must design stable frameworks, and investors must remain vigilant. By doing so, the promise of international markets can outweigh their perils.
Bitcoin Blow-Off Top Ahead? Wedge Breakout & RSI DivergenceBitcoin just broke out of a falling wedge, a pattern that often signals the end of a down move. Price bounced from the 0.618 Fibonacci level (~106.5K), which is a strong support zone.
At the same time, the RSI showed a bullish divergence (RSI rising while price was falling), suggesting buyers were stepping in during the recent sell-off.
From here, I expect BTC to test the 117K zone (0.236 Fib) and possibly pull back toward 113K (0.382 Fib) before pushing higher.
If momentum continues, Bitcoin could make a final blow-off top move sometime around late October to early November.
BTC/USDT Analysis. Manipulation During Macro Data Release
Hello everyone! This is the CryptoRobotics trader-analyst, and here is the daily market analysis.
Yesterday, Bitcoin reached the support level of $110,000. Just below this mark, we observed unusually strong buyer activity for this local downtrend wave, which was clearly visible in the delta. As a result, the price quickly moved back toward the local high.
Previously, we had left the resistance zone at $112,400–$113,300 (local volume zone) untouched, since liquidity above the high remained untested. As of now, this zone has been fully filled. During the release of U.S. macroeconomic data, large volumes entered Bitcoin and positioned themselves to the short side.
Trading priorities have shifted once again — at the moment, it is more favorable to look for short opportunities on pullbacks. The nearest downside potential is toward $108,000 and a possible retest of the recent low.
The zone $112,400–$113,300 remains relevant, but has shifted slightly to $112,200–$113,200.
Buy Zones:
$108,000–$102,500 (accumulated volumes)
Sell Zones:
$112,200–$113,200 (volume zone)
$114,400–$115,500 (volume zone)
~$116,500 (volume anomaly)
$117,200–$119,000 (accumulated volumes)
$121,200–$122,200 (buy absorption)
This publication is not financial advice.
Bitcoin Do not buy today there is a massive sell-off.Be careful today and avoid buying Bitcoin.
A whale just sold 1,000 BTC at $113,000, causing a sudden drop in price, as shown on the chart.
Remember that the market is always driven by supply and demand, and by the large-scale buying and selling operations of whales.
⚠️ Do not buy Bitcoin currently unless new buy orders from market makers appear and there is significant buying entry from whales.
👉 Follow me to know the entry and exit points of market makers and whales.
I specialize in analyzing and tracking the orders of market makers.
Best regards to all 🌹
please note :
this is not financial advice — it reflects only my personal opinion.
PLEASE always do your own research before trading .. Good luck with your trades.
If this type of analysis interests you, feel free to follow my work. I specialize in tracking and analyzing the orders of market makers and whales. Of course, always do your own research before trading
Thank you 🌹
BTC short-term pain for long term if we want a super-cycle.Short-term pain for long term if we want a super-cycle.
BTC/USDT Crypto Heist - Bullish Breakout Blueprint!🔥 Thief Trading Style: BTC/USDT Bullish Heist Plan 🔥
Greetings, Money Makers & Market Robbers! 🤑
Ready to execute a daring heist in the Bitcoin vs. Tether (BTC/USDT) crypto market? 📈 Our Thief Trading Style combines technical precision and fundamental insights to target a bullish breakout. Follow this charted strategy to ride the wave and exit before the risky Red Zone. Let’s grab those profits together! 💪🎯
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📊 Trade Setup: The Heist Plan
- Market: BTC/USDT (Crypto) 🌐
- Bias: Bullish Breakout 🌟
- Timeframe: 1D (Swing Trade) ⏰
Entry 📈:
- Breakout Entry: Wait for a clean breakout above the Moving Average (MA) at 108000. Place Buy Stop orders just above 108000 to seize the momentum. 🚀
- Pullback Entry: For lower-risk entries, set Buy Limit orders at the recent 15M/30M swing low (e.g., 105000-106000) to catch pullbacks. 📍
- Trader Tip: Set a TradingView alert for the 108000 breakout to stay ahead of the move! 🔔
Stop Loss 🛑:
- Breakout Traders: After the breakout confirms, place your Stop Loss below the recent 1D swing low at 96000 to guard against reversals. ⚠️
- Pullback Traders: Tailor your Stop Loss to your risk appetite (e.g., 1-2% of account). Adjust based on lot size and multiple orders. 📏
- Risk Alert: This heist is high-stakes! Stick to disciplined position sizing to protect your capital.🔥
Target 🎯:
- Aim for 122000, near the risky Red Zone (an overbought area prone to consolidation or reversal). 🏴☠️
- Exit Strategy: Consider taking profits early if bearish signals (e.g., high volume, reversal candles) emerge near 122000. 💸
Scalpers 👀:
- Stick to Long-side scalps with tight trailing stops. Join swing traders for the full heist or scalp quick moves if your capital allows. 💰
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📡 Why This Heist Has Potential
BTC/USDT is in a neutral trend with strong bullish prospects, driven by:
- Technicals: A breakout above the 108000 MA, backed by higher lows on the 1D chart, signals robust momentum. 📊
- Fundamentals: Institutional buying and positive crypto sentiment (check COT reports) fuel upside potential. 📰
- Seasonal Trends: Bitcoin often rallies in Q2, aligning with our setup. 📅
- Intermarket Factors: USD weakness and altcoin strength could lift BTC higher. 🌎
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⚠️ Risk Management: Secure Your Gains
- News Caution: Skip new trades during major news events (e.g., CPI, FOMC) to avoid volatility spikes. 🗞️
- Trailing Stops: Use trailing Stop Loss to lock in profits as price nears 122000. 🔒
- Position Sizing: Limit risk to 1-2% of your account per trade for a safe heist. 🚨
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💥 Power Up the Heist! 💥
Join our Thief Trading Style crew by liking, commenting, and following for more high-energy trade plans! 🚀 Your support strengthens our market raids, helping us profit with precision. Let’s conquer BTC/USDT together! 🤝🏆🎉
Stay Sharp: Another heist plan is on the horizon. Keep your charts locked and loaded, traders! 🐱👤😎
#BTCUSDT #Bitcoin #Crypto #Bullish #SwingTrading #Breakout
Sep 5, 2025 - BTCUSDT Multi Time Frame Chart Analysis-04Intro
Today I want to approach the market from the top down — starting with the higher timeframes and gradually moving lower — to refresh my overall outlook. Ideally, I’d do this after each weekly candle close, but I’ve decided to try it today as part of my decision-making process.
I generally prefer to react to the market rather than predict it, but in order to prepare my reactions ahead of time, I want to see whether Bitcoin shows any signs of correction in the weekly timeframe. Of course, September’s fundamental events could heavily influence market direction, but for now, I’ll stick to the technical picture.
1️⃣ Weekly Timeframe
The weekly chart clearly shows Bitcoin in a strong uptrend . Price remains above the rising trendline, consistently printing higher highs and higher lows.
* One observation: the percentage growth after each rally is slowing, but the absolute growth remains relatively constant at around $45,000 per leg. This suggests that if price rejects from the trendline again, the next potential target could be around $150,000, which also aligns with Fibonacci extensions.
So far, there are no signs of a trend reversal .
⚠️ However, according to Dow Theory , volume should confirm the trend — yet Bitcoin’s weekly volume has been declining. This is an early signal of potential weakness.
➡️ For now, the weekly structure doesn’t indicate a correction, but if the weekly trendline breaks, we’ll reassess.
2️⃣ Daily Timeframe
Currently, Bitcoin is ranging between 101,000 and 123,600 . Despite the broader bullish bias, both lower highs and lower lows have appeared recently, signaling weaker bullish momentum.
* With the latest correction from 123,000 to 112,300 , the price is now closer to its long-term trendline than ever before.
* We don’t yet have confirmation that the correction is finished, but there are hints:
1- Momentum on the downside has slowed. We’re even seeing the first equal high formation — if a higher low + higher high follows, that would confirm a trend shift.
2- Inflows: During the last bullish leg in the 4H chart, Bitcoin dominance also made a bullish leg, suggesting fresh money entering Bitcoin. But since dominance is still in a larger downtrend, this could just be a corrective bounce.
📌 With today’s important news release, if data favors crypto, we could see a continuation to the upside. If not, I expect Bitcoin to revisit its long-term trendline first before deciding the next move.
3️⃣ 4H Timeframe
The daily correction looks like a clean descending trend on the 4H chart, with clear lower highs and lower lows.
* This channel has now been broken.
* A higher low has already formed.
➡️ If today’s long trigger breaks, it could be a good long opportunity provided BTC dominance rises alongside Bitcoin.
Otherwise, it may be more reasonable to look for long setups in altcoins.
$BTC: HigherFront ran on our initial limits on the H1 structure break, price tagged the .5 region and blasted off to previous day high
my bias is still towards that inducement high, before the daily bearish fvg
we'll see if nfp gives us any chances to hop aboard
NFP Jobs Data Could Trigger $116K or $105K Bitcoin MoveBitcoin is testing a critical breakout above $112,168 as markets prepare for tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. The 4-hour chart has shown positive momentum, with BTC clearing resistance at $110,918 and pushing toward $112,856. If bulls can hold above $112K, the roadmap opens to $114,189 and $116,072. But if Bitcoin loses momentum, supports sit at $110,918, $108,592, and the deeper zone near $105,320.
The jobs report could be the catalyst that decides Bitcoin’s next big move. Consensus is around 75,000 jobs, just above last month’s 73,000. A weaker report could boost risk assets like Bitcoin as traders price in more Fed cuts. But a stronger print could cool risk sentiment and pressure BTC back into support. Either way, volatility is coming, and these levels will be key.
Bitcoin local bottom is likely, but cylce top is nearThe local bottom for BTC may be in as Bitcoin nears it's previous resistance level near 110k. This is a key price zone for BTC and buyers seem to be holding this level. The next wave up aligns with a cycle top near 150k around the middle of October.
h1 longs on $BTCdoesnt get cleaner than this
btc bounced off the daily bullish fvg
got an hourly structure break to the upside
imbalance, orderblock, bullish POIs below we can long from
clear invalidation, clear draw
let's see what nfp gives
BTCUSDT- 250905 - LONG - Binance - Algo Target - 1WTake Profit: $134,000 - $137,000
Likely Market Cycle Top
