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BTCUSDT - 1 This chart reflects BTCUSDT price action on a short-term timeframe. The current price sits at 122,394.39, and based on candlestick structure, support/resistance zones, and trendlines, here are the key insights: 🔻 Overall Trend - Price is moving within a descending channel, marked by a downward trendline from top left to mid-right. - Selling pressure is evident in the red candles, though bullish reactions near support zones suggest buyer interest. 🟩 Support Zones - A strong support area is identified between 118,925.65 and 119,624.23. - Increased trading volume in this zone may indicate accumulation and potential reversal. 🟥 Resistance Zones - First resistance lies between 123,800 and 124,500. - A breakout above this level could pave the way toward 125,200. 📈 Possible Scenarios 1. Bullish Case: If price stabilizes above the descending trendline and breaks through 124,000, a rally toward 125,200 is likely. 2. Bearish Case: If support at 119,600 fails, price may drop further toward 118,800. 📌 Summary USDT is currently at a critical juncture. Its reaction to the lower support zone and behavior around the descending trendline will determine the next move. Traders are advised to monitor volume and price action closely, and apply proper risk management.
Long
by farshadrazzaghi
2
BTC ANALYSIS🔮 #BTC Analysis  🚀🚀 💲💲 #BTC is trading between support and resistance area. There is a potential rejection again from its resistance zone and pullback from support zone. If #BTC breaks the major resistance zone then we would see a bullish move or else we will get a downfall towards its major support zone 💸Current Price -- $1,21,800 ⁉️ What to do? - We have marked crucial levels in the chart . We can trade according to the chart and make some profits. 🚀💸 #BTC  #Cryptocurrency #DYOR
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
1
Bitcoin Targets $133,000 as Bulls Defend Channel SupportBitcoin continues to hold firm within its bullish trading channel, defending key support levels around $119,429. With structure intact, a push toward $123,348 and beyond to $133,000 remains on the table. Bitcoin’s price action has been consolidating within a defined upward channel, maintaining a sequence of higher highs and higher lows that confirm the long-term bullish bias. After multiple successful retests of the channel support, the market has rebounded toward the midline, suggesting renewed bullish intent. Traders are now watching how price behaves between the current $119,429 support and $123,348 resistance to determine the next breakout direction. Key Technical Points: - Channel structure remains intact with higher highs and higher lows. - Support: $119,429 | Resistance: $123,348 short-term, $133,000 channel high. - A reclaim of $123,348 could trigger a rally into new all-time highs. Main Analysis: Bitcoin’s chart remains structurally sound, showing consistent respect for its trend channel. The most recent defense of support around $119,429 reflects renewed demand, with buyers stepping in each time price tests the lower boundaries of the range. This pattern has kept the uptrend intact and positioned BTC for another attempt to break through resistance. The current focus is on the $123,348 resistance zone. A decisive reclaim above this level would likely lead to a strong impulsive move toward $133,000 — the next key resistance and potential new all-time high. The move would mark a continuation of the bullish market structure that has been developing since the last significant correction. From a market sentiment perspective, open interest continues to climb, indicating that traders are adding positions alongside price increases. This alignment between rising open interest and bullish price structure signals that the rally is supported by real demand rather than short-term speculation. However, traders should remain cautious of potential volatility near resistance zones, especially as Bitcoin approaches historical highs. Consolidation within this region would not be unusual, allowing the market to absorb liquidity before expansion. What to Expect in the Coming Price Action: Bitcoin remains bullish while trading within its channel. If $123,348 is reclaimed with volume, the next target lies at $133,000 — the channel high and potential new all-time high. If support at $119,429 fails, short-term retracement toward lower channel boundaries may occur before another attempt higher.
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
Let Bitcoin make a new ATHHi traders, My outlook on Bitcoin last week was wrong and I'm the first to admit it. I can't be 100% right. So we move on to the next possibility. Last week Bitcoin went up very impulsive from out of nowhere due to fundamental news. Now let price make a new ATH and wait for the (corrective or impulsive) move down to take a trade. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Let price make a new ATH and wait for the (corrective or impulsive) move down to take a trade bullish or bearish. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
by EduwaveTrading
1
Trigger: 4h-close below 121.0–121.2kWhat does it mean now 1. The trend is very strong (ADX>60, CMF≫0, OBV-z≫0) — the bulls are in control. 2. But we are high above the VWAP/VAH and slightly above the KC-Upper, RSI≈74 / MFI≈80 + a series of bearish divergences → the risk of a rotation to the averages/HVN is increased. 3. OI is neutral → up-movement is held, but without a pronounced influx of new positions (less "fuel" for immediate acceleration). ⸻ Key levels Resistance: 123 858 (Donch-High 20/55) → 124 157 (BB-Upper) → aVWAP swing high ~122,490 as the nearest magnet during an impulse (locally slightly lower than the current one). Supports: 121,000–121,200 (top VAH 120,964 + local LVN ~120.7–121.2k) → 119,686 (KC-Mid ≈ EMA20) / 119,743 (BB-Mid) → 118,969 (Donch-Mid20) → 117,534 (KC-Low) → deeper 111 389 (POC). HVN-clusters: 111.4–115.9k (magnet during deep correction). LVN thin: 118.3k / 119.1k / 120.7k / 121.2–123.4k — zones for "accelerations" during breakthroughs. ⸻ Scenarios and triggers (not financial advice) A) Basic - rotation to the average/VAH with attempts to hold up the uptrend. Why basic: overbought (RSI/MFI), z(Price−VWAP)~+2σ, exit above VAH, a series of bearish divergences; at the same time, the trend is strong (ADX, CMF), i.e. the expectation is a respite/reboot, not a reversal. • Trigger: 4h-close below 121.0–121.2k (back inside value) and/or return below 120 964 (VAH), with RSI < 65, weakening of the MACD histogram. • Targets: 119.7k (KC-Mid/BB-Mid) → 118.97k (Donch-Mid20) → 117.53k (KC-Low). • Cancel: re-purchase and consolidation above 123,858. B) Continuation of the upward trend. • Trigger: holding above 121.9–122.5k and 4h-closing > 123,858 with a buffer of ≈ +0.1·ATR ≈ +110$ → > 123,970, while OBV z50 ≥ 0 and OI ROC(5) ≥ 0. • Targets: 124.16k (BB-Upper) → 125.5–126.5k (above the band) → by inertia in the LVN-corridor 121.2–123.4k, quick "stretching" is possible. • Invalidator: quick return < 122.0k. C) Sharp "blowing" (clear refusal from above). • Trigger: false exit at 123.9–124.2k with a long upper shadow, fix of bearish RSI/MFI divergences on highs, OI↑ on a red candle, MACD histogram ↓. • Targets: 121.2k → 119.7k → 117.5k; if weak, test 118.3k / 119.1k (LVN-pockets — straits can be fast). ⸻ Tactics (example of logic) • Reversal long: zones 121.2k / 120.96k / 119.7k at signs of demand (CMF ≥ 0, candle reaction, OBV z50 is held ≥ 0). Targets: 122.5k → 123.9k; stop - under the local LVN (e.g. < 120.7k), buffer ~0.5×ATR ≈ 550$. • Impulse long: after fixing > 123,970. Partial fixes at 124.16k and 125.5–126.5k; trail on EMA20/KC-Mid. • Contra-trend short: only when 123.9–124.2k is rejected + confirmed divergences (RSI/MFI/OBV) and MACD weakening. Targets: 121.2k → 119.7k → 117.5k; stop at 124.3–124.6k. ⸻ Briefly: what to expect The trend is strong, but the market is overbought and stretched to VWAP/VAH/KC-Upper with a series of bearish divergences. I expect a rotation to 121.2k → 119.7k to reset the momentum. • If we get above 123,970, we can go to 124.2k → 125.5–126.5k. • If we stay below 121.0–121.2k and VAH — a deeper correction to 119.7k → 117.5k is likely; only breaking through these zones opens the way to POC ~111.4k (this is unlikely at the current ADX/CMF).
by AlexeyBullBear0297
BTCUSD BITCOIN ADVANCED STRUCTURE BITCOIN OVERSIGHT AND CORRECTIONS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY (1)DEMAND FLOOR AT 109,060.77 was a retest to the neckline of double bottom a bullish price action signal on daily candle close as illustrated from our line chart and it came with another confluence from an ascending trendline to add more impetus to the buy rally and many missed and lost money too. (2) SUPPLY ROOF 117,383.70 a previous demand floor on daily after break of structure it became supply roof and stopped upswing twice ,but due to buy rally that key level is broken after 2 retested attempt ,on technical a broken supply roof is now our demand floor except the sell order exceed buy order that zone 117,383.70 holds support on daily candle close . (3) 123,387-124,478.66-125k daily supply roof and our current all time high . this zone has an ascending trendline connecting the two highs and on technical the next high should be 127,071-128k for sell in the direction of the previous two all time highs(123,387-124,478.66) my ideal zone to attempt sell should be 127,071-128k zone note ;you can avoid selling and wait for buy zone 117,383.70 and its possible tat price wont return to this level. trading is 100% a game of probability.(win/loss) comes with it. No holy gril,nothing like best strategy. what we have is masters in RISK MANAGEMENT,THE BEST TRADERS ARE EXPERTS IN RISK MANAGEMENT,THEY ALL HAVE ZERO EMOTION,THEY DONT CHASE WHAT IS LOST. GOODLUCK #BITCOIN #BTCUSDT #BTC #CRYTO
Long
by Shavyfxhub
Bitcoin: Healthy Corrections vs. Overextended RalliesIn my view, a truly healthy trend must include both upward moves and corrections. When Bitcoin rises too quickly without proper pullbacks, it often leads to sudden selling pressure. For the update to my previous analysis, the new key support has formed at 119,613. If this level breaks, the next major support zone lies between 114,145 and 115,723. ⚠️ Keep in mind: this does not guarantee that Bitcoin will only find support in that zone—it could bounce earlier. However, this is the most important area to watch. To maintain the overall bullish structure, Bitcoin must hold above 112,817. On the other hand, if the price doesn’t fall below 119,613, it could signal strong buying power in the market. In that case, a period of consolidation (range-building) could provide the base for the next rally. 📈 A long setup above 122,799 would look attractive—but not at this moment. Waiting for confirmation is key.
by CRYPTO_HUUNTER
Competitive Currency War: Global Battle for Economic DominanceIntroduction In the vast and interconnected world of global finance, currencies play a central role in determining the strength, stability, and competitiveness of nations. A competitive currency war—often called a currency devaluation war—occurs when countries deliberately devalue their currencies to gain an advantage in international trade. While this strategy may seem beneficial for exports and economic growth, it often triggers retaliation, leading to global financial instability and geopolitical tension. In this detailed exploration, we’ll discuss the origins, mechanisms, effects, and modern implications of competitive currency wars—an ongoing struggle that shapes the balance of global economic power. Understanding the Concept of Currency War A currency war refers to a situation where multiple countries intentionally devalue their currencies to make their exports cheaper and imports more expensive. The goal is to boost domestic industries, reduce trade deficits, and stimulate economic growth. However, when many countries engage in the same practice, it leads to “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies—where one nation’s gain becomes another’s loss. The term gained modern popularity after Brazil’s Finance Minister Guido Mantega warned of a “currency war” in 2010 when countries worldwide adopted aggressive monetary policies to recover from the 2008 global financial crisis. Historical Background of Currency Wars Currency wars are not a new phenomenon. They have appeared throughout economic history—usually in response to global recessions or competitive trade pressures. Let’s trace some major instances: 1. The 1930s: The Great Depression Era After the Great Depression (1929), many countries sought to recover by devaluing their currencies. The U.K. abandoned the gold standard in 1931, followed by the U.S. in 1933, and several others soon after. The objective was to make exports cheaper and revive domestic production. However, this sparked a chain reaction of competitive devaluations, leading to trade barriers, tariffs, and reduced global trade—worsening the global economic slump. 2. The Post-World War II Bretton Woods Era In 1944, the Bretton Woods Agreement established a fixed exchange rate system, pegging global currencies to the U.S. dollar, which was backed by gold. This framework was designed to prevent currency instability. However, by the late 1960s, the U.S. faced massive trade deficits and inflation, leading President Richard Nixon to end the dollar’s convertibility into gold in 1971, effectively dismantling the Bretton Woods system. The result was a move to floating exchange rates, opening the door for competitive devaluations once again. 3. The 1980s: The U.S.–Japan Currency Conflict During the 1980s, Japan’s growing trade surplus with the U.S. led to tensions. To correct the imbalance, the Plaza Accord (1985) was signed by the U.S., Japan, West Germany, France, and the U.K., agreeing to devalue the U.S. dollar and appreciate the Japanese yen. While the accord stabilized trade temporarily, it caused Japan’s asset prices to soar—eventually contributing to Japan’s “Lost Decade” in the 1990s. 4. The 2008 Financial Crisis and Modern Currency War After the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, central banks worldwide—especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of Japan—implemented quantitative easing (QE). QE flooded markets with liquidity, weakening domestic currencies to spur exports. Emerging markets accused advanced economies of manipulating currencies and “exporting inflation” to developing nations—a clear revival of competitive devaluation dynamics. Mechanisms of Competitive Devaluation Countries can weaken their currencies through several mechanisms. These actions may be direct (intervention in currency markets) or indirect (monetary and fiscal policies): 1. Monetary Easing Central banks lower interest rates or implement quantitative easing to increase the money supply. This reduces currency value as investors seek higher yields elsewhere. 2. Foreign Exchange Intervention Governments or central banks actively buy or sell their own currencies in foreign exchange markets to influence exchange rates. For example, China has often been accused of buying U.S. dollars to keep the yuan undervalued and support exports. 3. Capital Controls To prevent capital inflows that might strengthen their currencies, some nations impose capital controls—restrictions on foreign investment or money movement. 4. Fiscal Expansion High government spending can weaken a currency by increasing inflation expectations, reducing purchasing power, and discouraging foreign investment. 5. Competitive Interest Rate Reductions When one country lowers interest rates to spur growth, others often follow suit to prevent their currencies from appreciating, triggering a race to the bottom in global monetary policy. Economic Motives Behind Currency Wars The motives behind a currency war are primarily economic survival and competitive advantage: Boosting Exports: A weaker currency makes domestic goods cheaper abroad, improving trade balances. Reducing Trade Deficits: It discourages imports, helping to reduce dependency on foreign goods. Attracting Tourism: A cheaper currency makes travel to the country more affordable. Supporting Employment: Export-led growth can help reduce unemployment during economic downturns. Managing Debt: Inflation caused by currency depreciation reduces the real value of government debt. Consequences of Currency Wars While devaluation can offer temporary relief, competitive currency wars often lead to long-term economic instability and loss of trust between nations. Key consequences include: 1. Inflationary Pressures Currency devaluation raises import prices, leading to higher inflation. For resource-importing nations, this can worsen living standards. 2. Loss of Investor Confidence Frequent devaluations create uncertainty. Investors may withdraw funds from unstable economies, leading to capital flight. 3. Retaliatory Policies When one country devalues, others retaliate. This “tit-for-tat” policy spiral often ends in trade wars—as seen between the U.S. and China. 4. Volatility in Financial Markets Exchange rate fluctuations affect stock markets, bond yields, and commodities. Businesses dependent on global supply chains suffer due to unpredictability. 5. Global Economic Imbalance Currency wars distort trade flows and investment patterns, destabilizing emerging markets that rely heavily on exports and foreign capital. Currency War vs. Trade War Although interconnected, currency wars and trade wars are distinct. A trade war involves tariffs and import restrictions, while a currency war manipulates exchange rates. However, both aim to protect domestic industries and improve trade balances. For example, during the U.S.–China tensions (2018–2020), the U.S. accused China of deliberately weakening the yuan to offset the impact of tariffs—essentially combining both wars simultaneously. Major Players in Modern Currency Wars 1. United States The U.S. dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy directly impacts global liquidity. During QE phases (2008–2015 and 2020 pandemic stimulus), the U.S. faced accusations of weakening the dollar to aid recovery. 2. China China has often been accused of managing the yuan to maintain export competitiveness. Its massive foreign exchange reserves and control over capital flows allow it to influence its currency more easily than floating-rate economies. 3. Japan Japan’s Abenomics in the 2010s involved aggressive monetary easing, pushing the yen lower to combat deflation and revive exports—a classic currency war tactic. 4. European Union The European Central Bank has engaged in QE and negative interest rates to stimulate growth, leading to a weaker euro, especially between 2015–2019. 5. Emerging Economies Countries like India, Brazil, and South Korea often face the spillover effects of major powers’ currency policies. They must manage capital inflows and outflows while maintaining exchange rate stability. Currency Wars in the Digital Era The rise of digital currencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) adds a new dimension to currency wars. China’s Digital Yuan (e-CNY) challenges the U.S. dollar’s dominance in cross-border trade. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are viewed by some as a hedge against fiat currency manipulation. U.S. and EU CBDC projects aim to retain influence in the global payments ecosystem. Thus, the modern currency war is not just about exchange rates but also about technological dominance in financial infrastructure. Case Study: The U.S.–China Currency War One of the most notable modern examples is the U.S.–China currency conflict. Background: China’s massive trade surplus with the U.S. led to accusations of currency manipulation, with the U.S. Treasury labeling China a “currency manipulator” in 2019. Tactics: China managed its yuan to offset tariffs, while the U.S. used monetary stimulus to lower the dollar’s value. Outcome: The trade war and currency war combined, creating volatility in global markets. Implications: Both countries diversified reserves and reduced dependence on the U.S. dollar—fueling the trend toward de-dollarization. Global Coordination to Prevent Currency Wars To avoid destabilization, countries often use international cooperation frameworks: International Monetary Fund (IMF): Monitors exchange rate manipulation and encourages transparency. G20 Summits: Serve as platforms for global coordination of fiscal and monetary policies. Central Bank Agreements: Bilateral and multilateral swaps help stabilize currencies during crises. World Trade Organization (WTO): Addresses the trade-related effects of currency policies. However, enforcement remains difficult, as sovereign nations guard monetary autonomy closely. The Future of Currency Wars The landscape of competitive currency manipulation is evolving rapidly. Future currency wars may be fought not through direct devaluations but through digital and policy tools, including: Digital currency competition (CBDCs, stablecoins) Technological control of payment systems Geopolitical sanctions using currency dominance Reserve diversification (rise of gold, yuan, and crypto as alternatives) As nations strive to maintain competitiveness, monetary nationalism may rise again, creating an increasingly fragmented global financial system. Conclusion A competitive currency war represents far more than a battle of exchange rates—it is a struggle for economic supremacy, trade influence, and monetary sovereignty. While short-term currency weakening can support exports and growth, the long-term costs often outweigh the benefits—fueling inflation, damaging global cooperation, and undermining trust in financial systems. The future may see new forms of currency wars, fought in the realms of digital finance, central bank policy, and global trade networks. To prevent economic fragmentation, global cooperation, transparency, and responsible monetary governance are essential. Ultimately, in the globalized 21st-century economy, currency wars remind us that no nation operates in isolation—and that the value of money is not just a reflection of numbers, but of economic confidence and international balance.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
Complete system for Day & Swing TradersHey whats up traders, Today Im going reveal simple but effective way to analyze and trade any markets - Stocks, Indices, Forex and Crypto. This thing works on everything because it's based on liquidity manipulations. It's 100% mechanical structured aproach with fixed targets and defined. So unlike traders who trade various patterns and have on charts different patterns and diagonal subjective lines, you can backtest it and measure its and yours execution performance to get your statistical data for Risk Reward and Winning Ratio. ‼️Once you obtain such data from data sample large enough you will also solve biggest trading problems - FEAR, GREED and OVERTRADING. Why ? 📊 Because if you know you win rate is 60 - 70 % trades with RR 2.3 with aprox. 4 trades in a month per instrument, why would you then do following? Try to look for trade every day when there is not your setup. Fear open next trade after few losses? Open huge gamble trade if you know 30% of trades can be loss Try to hold for unrealistic target if you know most of your trades hit 2.5 RR Try to pass prop challenge in one trade ? ... and many more psychological and undisciplined mistakes which discretional pattern traders without EDGE and statistical data about their strategy are doing. 🧠 Having mechanical system with backtested data is your EDGE. 💪 That is what makes you DISCIPLINED TRADER. 🧩 Basic Concept Im looking for the fake break out of the range. Whether we call it manipulation or Stop hunt. It really doesn't matter. The idea is that once big candle is created it creates fomo and break out traders are entering continuation. I trade against them. 📍Bullish continuation setups Model 1 - Entry after manipulation - 50% target Model 2 - Entry on pullback on level between 61.8 - 80% pullback 📍Bearish Continuation setups Model 1 - Entry after manipulation - 50% target Model 2 - Entry on pullback on level between 61.8 - 80% pullback 🧩 Manipulation phase is key for this concept. Without it happening, institutional move cant happen. Why ? Market makers are not looking to stop hunt our stop losses. They dont care about your or mine stop losses even if we trade 100 lots. Most of the brokers are B-Book anyway. But they are seeking the liquidity and they are placed above the highs and lows. You dont even need to read order book or book map to know it. To understand liqudity better read this post below Now you understand after the liquidity was swept. Big players have guns loaded and the move can start. This is what we want to participate. But !! What I have just shown you are patterns. Without adding them in to the right context with the market they will not have highest winning ratio. You must be selective. Basically you want to: 📍Down Trend - Trade Stop hunts above the highs 📍Up Trend - Trade Stop Hunt below the lows In other words we want be buying lows and selling highs. 🧪 How to do it I explained in this post below 📍 Top- Down analysis Before we go to the refined entries we must understand top down analysis and what to look for on the charts. Never start with LTF. You always must go with top Down analysis. 🧩 TOP Down analysis HTF Timeframe for the trend ITF - Timeframe - Ranges and Key Levels LTF - Timeframe Profiling and entries Once we analyze the trend define our range on our timeframe we are looking for manipulation before we go to entries remember this: 🧪Range is mostly created close the key level. If any candle close above the range - Its makes it invalid. 🧪We want see and trade wicks above the range, there you are looking for LTF entry. 📍 Bearish Scenario - (ITF view ) Price should not have candle close above the range on the same timeframe otherwise setup is invalidated and new range created. 📍 Bearish Scenario - (LTF view) - price (yellow has structured movements and should be crating AMD profiles on the edge of the range. We need to drop to LTF to read the structure. 📍 Bullish Scenario ITF view - Price should not have candle close below the range on the same timeframe otherwise setup is invalidated and new range created. 📍 Bullish Scenario - (LTF view) - price (yellow) has structured movements and should be crating AMD profiles on the edge of the range. We need to drop to LTF to read the structure. ‼️Note that Im always referring to the key level. It's called key level , because it's key for the success of the setup. Without it it will work only sometimes. This element must be part of the setup. I personally like the Order Block in other word Supply / Demand zone. 🧪 I have explained Order block in the post below Before we go to trade setup let's clarify timeframes again. Price is fractal you can basically trade this on any timeframes, but you still need to keep structure of 3 Timeframes. 🧩 Timeframe Alignments 🧪Short Term Trading Trend - Monthly - Directional draw on liquidity RangeS - Weekly - Stop hunts AMD Profiles / Entries - H4/H1 🧪Swing Trading Trend - Weekly - Directional draw on liquidity Range - Daily - Stop hunts AMD Profiles / Entries - H1/M15 🧪Day trading Trend - Daily - Directional draw on liquidity Range - H4 - Stop Hunts AMD Profiles / Entries - M15/ M5 🧪Scalping Trend - H4 - Directional draw on liquidity Range - H1 - Stop hunts AMD Profiles / Entries - M5/M1 🔥I recommend to trade daily and weekly ranges. Im not saying Day trading and Scalping is impossible. But Im sure none of us started trading for being isolated nerd behind the PC whole day stressing yourself about every minute. You want live social live and enjoy the freedom which trading can give you and mainly Daily and weekly ranges are higher probability. 🧩 AMD- Accumulation Manipulation Distribution This is happening on the markets over and over. Everyone who trades profitably use it and if not they are not continuous about using it but they use it is what is necessary to move the market. And we want see It on the Edge of the range with confluence of the key level.
Education
by David_Perk
71
BTC vs. The Broader Market: A Dangerous Powerful Wave is Coming Today, we're taking a deep dive into the two most important charts in the crypto space: Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) and the Total Crypto Market Cap (TOTAL). Using an Elliott Wave framework on the weekly timeframe, we can see a clear bullish structure taking shape. However, some underlying weaknesses in key indicators warrant a cautious approach. Let's break it down. 1. Bitcoin (BTC/USDT): The Path to a new All-time high Hinges on a Key Level As we can see on the weekly chart, Bitcoin appears to have completed a major five-wave impulse cycle which topped out around the $108,000 mark. This was followed by a necessary ABC corrective phase. The exciting part is what comes next. We are potentially witnessing the beginning of a brand new five-wave impulse. Wave (1): Appears to have started from the $74,000 low and peaked near $124,000. Wave (2): A healthy correction followed, finding support around $107,000. If this count is valid, we are now in the early stages of Wave (3), which is typically the most powerful and extended wave in an impulse sequence. The Critical Condition: For this bullish count to remain the primary scenario, the current weekly candle must NOT close below $123,000. A weekly close below this crucial level would risk invalidating the start of this new impulse, suggesting that we may still be within a more complex corrective structure (such as a regular flat correction Check the article). Also during wave (3) the Weekly RSI must go beyond "80" showing strong momentum ( if it fails to do so then it's a caution signal to be strongly considered because a reversal could happen at any time!) Indicator Analysis: Bearish Divergences: We must note the lingering bearish divergences on both the RSI and MACD. These signals are suspicious and suggest that momentum is not fully confirming the recent price highs. They need to be monitored closely. Volatility Coiling: The Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) is showing significant contraction. This coiling of the bands indicates that weekly volatility is decreasing, which often precedes a massive price expansion in the coming weeks or months, However the lack of BBWP exhaustion (spectrum crossing 90%) remains a bullish sign combined with the contraction Trend Strength: The ADX is rising on the weekly chart, confirming that a strong trend is in progress. Volume: On-Balance Volume (OBV) and general volume profiles appear adequate for now. 2. Total Crypto Market Cap (TOTAL): The Broader Market Picture The Total Crypto Market Cap chart tells a very similar story, reinforcing our Bitcoin analysis. The bullish phase began in sync with BTC back in November 2022. The current Elliott Wave structure for the entire market is as follows: Wave (1): Completed in March 2024. Wave (2): Corrected into May 2024. Wave (3): Finshed on March 2024 Wave (5): Finshed on December 2024 Currently the Total market cap chart is closely alligned with BTC chart which confrims the BTC leadership is intact. The current Elliot count of TOTAL market cap indicated wave (1) started April 2025 but curretly wave 2 showing caution signals A Significant Red Flag - The Volume Divergence: While the price structure remains bullish, there's a concerning signal under the hood. On the weekly RSI, we see a double bottom pattern, which is typically bullish. However, looking at the On-Balance Volume (OBV) during the same period, the OBV printed a lower low. This is a classic bearish divergence between price/momentum and volume. It indicates that the recent push higher is not being supported by genuine, strong volume, suggesting conviction is weak. Alternative Scenario: If this volume weakness persists, we might see Wave (2) extenstion to around $3.23 Trillion. This would lead to a deeper Wave (2) correction, From that support, Wave 3 could launch that would still likely reach our ultimate ATH. Conclusion: Bullish Outlook with a Note of Caution Bringing both analyses together, the macro view for the crypto market remains decisively bullish. The Elliott Wave structures on both BTC and the TOTAL chart point towards significantly higher valuation, the lack of BBWP exhaustion on weekly charts of BTC & Total market cap remains a strong bullish indication combined with the BBWP expansion. However, the market is showing signs of fatigue. The bearish divergences on Bitcoin's indicators and the critical volume divergence on the TOTAL chart cannot be ignored. This suggests that while the overall destination is uptrend, the journey might include a corrective dip before the next explosive leg higher. Key Takeaways: Overall Bias: Bullish. Key Level for BTC: Watch the weekly close relative to $123,000. This is our line in the sand for the current impulsive structure. Key Concern: The lack of strong volume confirming the market's recent move up warrants caution. Volatility: Brace for a significant expansion in price movement. The compressed BBWP on both charts suggests a major move is brewing. Stay vigilant and manage your risk accordingly. The next few weekly closes will be critical in determining whether we blast off directly or take a detour first.
Long
by CryptoShip0
5
Bitcoin: Mild Pullback Before Eyeing Fresh HighsHello everyone, Bitcoin continues to capture attention after reaching a peak of 120,324 USD before easing slightly to around 119,793 USD. This pullback is viewed as a technical pause within a broader uptrend rather than a sign of reversal. From a technical perspective, BTC remains above the Ichimoku cloud and is supported by FVG zones around 119,000–118,500 USD. Trading volume surged at the 120,000 USD level, highlighting strong institutional buying and reinforcing the bullish outlook. On the news front, the US dollar is weakening due to the risk of a government shutdown, while capital inflows from ETFs and major institutions continue to flow into the market. Combined with the current low interest rate environment, Bitcoin increasingly stands out as an attractive safe-haven asset. In the near term, Bitcoin is expected to hold support at 119,000–118,500 USD and rebound towards 122,000 USD, with extended targets at 125,000 USD and even 128,000 USD if momentum remains strong. Only a break below 118,500 USD would open the door for a deeper correction towards 117,800–116,500 USD before recovery attempts resume. What’s your view? Will BTC/USDT hold the line and move on to conquer 125,000 USD?
Long
by EmmaChartist
14
Bitcoin Channel Analysis - Breakout or Breakdown Incoming?Bitcoin has been trading within a pristine ascending channel for nearly a year and is now at a critical decision point after rejecting from key resistance. The Setup: 📊 Pattern Formation: Year-Long Ascending Channel - Clean parallel channel structure established since early 2024 - Lower boundary providing consistent support with multiple successful tests - Upper boundary acting as strong resistance, most recently at $121,682 - Mid-channel support zone around $115,000-$117,000 has been reliable - Current price: $122,205, consolidating after rejection from upper resistance 🎯 Potential Targets: Bullish Scenario: $130,000-$135,000 zone - Measured move from channel breakout above $122,500 - Continuation of the established uptrend structure - Next major psychological level at $130K Bearish Scenario: $105,000-$108,000 zone - Drop to lower channel boundary if current support fails - Would still maintain channel integrity - Critical support at $100,000 - breakdown below invalidates entire structure What to Watch For Validation: ✅ Decisive Close Above $122,500 - Need a strong 4-hour or daily candle close above this level to confirm breakout - Not just a wick testing - require solid body close with conviction - Previous resistance at $121,682 must flip to support ✅ Volume Surge - Breakout must occur with significantly elevated volume - Recent volume has been declining during consolidation (visible in lower panel) - Need at least 2-3x average volume to confirm genuine buying pressure ✅ Support Hold at Mid-Channel - Current pullback testing $115,000-$117,000 zone - This area has provided multiple bounces throughout the channel - Strong bounce with increasing volume = bullish continuation signal ✅ Follow-Through Above $125,000 - After confirming breakout, price should push toward $130K relatively quickly - Hesitation or immediate rejection would suggest weak momentum - Watch for sustained trade above previous resistance Key Levels: 🔸 Resistance: $121,682 (recent rejection) → $122,500 (breakout confirmation) → $130,000 (target) 🔸 Support: $115,000-$117,000 (mid-channel) → $105,000-$108,000 (lower channel) → $100,000 (invalidation level) 🔸 Volume Context Declining volume during pullback is actually bullish - suggests lack of seller aggression Pattern Context: Ascending channels represent sustained bullish momentum with well-defined risk parameters. The current consolidation near the upper boundary, combined with declining volume, suggests coiling energy for the next significant move. The 9-day pullback of -7.55% is healthy profit-taking, not distribution. Invalidation Signals: ❌ Break and close below $112,000 with volume ❌ Breakdown through lower channel boundary (~$105K) ❌ Multiple failed attempts at $122,500 with declining volume ❌ Close below $100,000 = trend reversal confirmed The channel must resolve. Bitcoin is compressing near resistance after a year of respecting this structure. A breakout above $122,500 with volume opens the door to $130K+. However, failure to hold mid-channel support could send us to test the lower boundary around $105K. Watch for that decisive move - volume will tell the story. Not financial advice - DYOR.
Short
by The_Pythia