BTC/USDT Analysis. Testing the Lower Boundary of the Range
Hello everyone! This is the trader-analyst from CryptoRobotics, and here’s your daily analysis.
Since Monday, Bitcoin has moved exactly as expected — heading lower and testing the $105,600–$104,500 support zone (volume anomalies).
Volumes spiked sharply, and some selling pressure was absorbed, but on the second test, the price slid through the level almost effortlessly.
At the moment, Bitcoin is testing the lower boundary of the global range $102,000–$116,000, where we’re observing strong volume anomalies that have triggered a short-term correction.
However, this reaction alone is not enough for a full reversal.
We expect a retest of the push-volume zone $103,700–$106,700, from where seller pressure may resume, leading to a move toward ~$101,000.
Only if that zone shows strong buying defense can we consider long entries.
For now, the bias remains bearish — the market seller is weak, but the price continues to move downward by inertia.
If the $101,000 level fails to hold, the next downside target lies at $97,000–$93,000.
Buy Zones:
• ~$101,000 (volume anomalies)
• $97,000–$93,000 (volume zone)
Sell Zones:
• $103,700–$106,700 (push volumes)
• $109,500–$110,700 (accumulated volumes)
• $112,400–$113,300 (accumulated volumes)
• $114,700–$115,700 (accumulated volumes)
• $120,900–$124,000 (volume zone)
This publication is not financial advice.
Trade ideas
BTC/USDT | Bitcoin Drops 15% in 8 Days – Is Recovery Next?By analyzing the Bitcoin chart on the 12-hour timeframe, we can see that Bitcoin has faced a strong correction over the past few days — dropping nearly 15% from $116,400 to $98,940 in less than eight days.
After sweeping liquidity below $102,000, buying pressure returned, and BTC is now trading around $102,400.
If price manages to break and hold above $104,700, we could see a rebound toward $110K+. Otherwise, Bitcoin may continue its decline toward $95,000.
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Bitcoin Structure & Order Flow Analysis✅ What the chart is telling us
1) Strong Impulsive Down Move
Large bearish impulse candles
High selling volume
CVD deeply negative → aggressive sellers in control
Main trend is still down.
2) Reversal Reaction at Support Zone
At the local bottom we see:
Increased volume at lows ✔️
CVD flattening ✔️
Multiple failed breakdown attempts ✔️
This area shows buyers absorbing, shorts covering, and early longs stepping in.
3) First Higher Low (HL)
A Higher Low formed following a sharp drop.
✅ First sign of potential trend shift
❗Not a confirmed uptrend yet
To confirm a true reversal we need:
HL → done
HH → minor HH formed
Retest & hold → pending
So far this is only early recovery structure, not yet trend reversal confidence.
4) Key Level: POC + Value Area Low
Price is holding above yesterday’s POC — short-term bullish signal.
However, overhead we have:
Mid-range resistance
102.3–102.6 supply zone
Micro-value high cap
Price is pushing into resistance.
📊 1H Structure Summary
Element Status
Higher timeframe Downtrend
Current structure HL → minor HH
Volume Stabilizing
CVD Recovering (-9k → -380)
Location Retest of POC into supply
Bias Range → early accumulation signs
This is not a FOMO long spot.
This is a range recovery zone, not breakout continuation.
🎯 Trade Scenarios
🔥 Bullish scenario
Looking for:
Minor pullback
Hold 101.90–102.10
Break into 103,000 zone
Best long entry = HL retest after breakout, not here.
❄️ Bearish scenario
Short continuation if:
Price loses 101.90
Drops below Value Low
CVD flips down again
✅ Trader Game Plan
We do not chase here. Patience wins.
Looking for either:
Pullback to 1H demand + bounce → long scalp
Reject from 102.6 + LH on 5m → short continuation
Trade the reaction, not prediction.
Let the market show direction before committing.
📌 Conclusion
Buyers showed life — but still need to prove momentum.
Key levels
Bull defense: 102.0 – 101.9
Breakout confirmation: 102.6+
Bear continuation trigger: < 101.9
Now is the time to wait, not guess.
Patience ≠ weakness — it’s discipline.
Bitcoin: Sellers Pushed the Price Below the RangeThe price tested the 50% level of the monthly range (100,353)
Hello, traders and investors!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
On the daily timeframe, the market remains in a sideways range, and the seller initiative managed to push the price below its lower boundary.
The price also interacted with the 50% level of the monthly trading range — 100,353.
These two factors may trigger buying activity and a potential return of the price back into the range.
Within the seller initiative, we can see four seller candles with increasing volume, with the highest volume at the bottom — the IC candle.
To look for buying opportunities, the price needs to return into the range.
Absorption of the seller’s IC candle would be a good sign to start looking for long setups.
Nearest key levels on the daily timeframe:
— Lower boundary of the range — 102,000
— High of the seller candle that broke the lower boundary — 107,299
If we look at the 1-hour timeframe, there’s also a nearby level at 107,672, which corresponds to the 50% level of the hourly trading range.
If buyers start to move, it will be important to watch how they handle the 107,299–107,672 zone.
Wishing you profitable trades!
Bitcoin Losses Hit 9-Month High Of $24 Billion Amid 8% Price DroBitcoin is trading at $101,729 at the time of writing, sitting just above the critical $100,000 support. Earlier, BTC slipped below this level, forming an intra-day low of $98,966 before rebounding slightly.
The recent 8% drop has validated a head-and-shoulders pattern, which projects a potential 13.6% decline targeting $89,948. However, if investors begin buying at lower levels, Bitcoin could bounce from $100,000 and retest $105,000 or higher.
Conversely, continued selling pressure and weak market conditions could send BTC below $100,000 again. A breach under $98,000 may lead to further losses toward $95,000 or lower, undermining any short-term recovery hopes.
Chart Analysis: BTC / USDT (Weekly Timeframe)Pattern: EMA Retest (Potential Breakdown Risk)
The chart shows Bitcoin (BTC) facing notable bearish pressure after recent highs. Price is currently testing the 50-week EMA, a historically important support zone that has previously triggered strong bullish rebounds. However, current momentum shows weakness as sellers dominate.
Key Observations
🔹 Support Zone: Around $100,900 (50 EMA) — acting as critical dynamic support.
🔹 June Low Support: Near $98,200, the next major level to monitor.
🔹 Bearish Candle: BTC down nearly 8% for the week, showing strong selling pressure.
🔹 Bull Bear Power (BBP) Indicator: signaling that bearish strength outweighs bullish demand, and selling momentum remains strong.
🔹 Previous Bounces: The last two retests of the 50-week EMA (circled) led to solid recoveries, but this time, price action looks weaker and sentiment more cautious.
Potential Move
If BTC fails to hold above the 50-week EMA, further downside targets could be:
🎯 Target 1: $95,000
🎯 Target 2: $90,000
Conversely, a strong bullish reaction from the 50 EMA may spark a rebound phase and signal renewed accumulation.
Summary:
Bitcoin is currently at a critical support retest on the 50-week EMA. The Bear Power indicator suggests growing downside pressure, and a weekly close below $100K could confirm a deeper correction. Holding this zone, however, might preserve the broader uptrend.
#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSDT #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #CryptoTraders #CryptoMarket #BullBearPower
BTC continues to correct below 100k🟠 BTCUSD Technical Plan
Current Price: 101,960
Overview: BTC continues to follow a downtrend structure, with each lower high being rejected from the descending trendline (marked with red arrows). The market recently broke below key Fibonacci support and is now trading around the 1.0 extension level near 100,950.
📉 Short-term Expectation:
Price may retest the broken support zone around 104,700 – 105,800 (Fib 0.5–0.618 + EMA zone).
This area is expected to act as strong resistance where sellers may re-enter the market.
If the rejection is confirmed, BTC could continue dropping toward the 95,200 – 94,700 support zone (1.618 extension).
📈 Alternative Scenario (Bullish Correction): If price breaks above 105,800, a short-term correction could extend toward the trendline resistance near 111,400 before another potential reversal.
Bitcoin 2022 Pattern Has Returned – History Never LiesYou can call it coincidence.
You can call it manipulation.
But this pattern — this rhythm — never breaks its cycle.
Back in 2023, I showed you how the same structure played out before the major rally.
Now, look closely… it’s here again. The same shape, the same psychology, only larger.
The spike to 126,000$ was the trap — the “fake high” to make the smart ones doubt themselves.
And now? The structure is completing… with one direction left open.
📉 Target Zone: 65,000 – 70,000$
🧠 Pattern Type: Macro Fractal / 2022 Replica
💡 Message: Markets don’t repeat by chance — they repeat by design.
Every move, every wick, every trap — drawn by the same invisible hand that drew it three years ago.
The bots are working, the script is running, and the crowd still doesn’t see it.
History doesn’t just rhyme.
It copies and pastes.
Bitcoin update + new setupsETH was leading the move to sweep the lows, and it did.
Now that both BTC and ETH have cleared liquidity below the previous lows, we have new setups, depending on the confirmations at key S/R levels.
⚠️ These setups are based on a bounce scenario toward the SSL. Setups become invalid if the market drops further toward the lower Pivot areas. When that happens, a new update will follow.
BTC: (When support confirmed above SSL)
- Entry around SSL ~103540
- tp1 ~104900
- tp2 ~106200
- close ~108200
- stop depends on previous low when support confirmed above SSL
BTC: (When SSL is rejected and confirmed)
- DCA around SSL ~103500-102500
- tp1 ~100600
- tp2 ~98900
- close ~104800
Note: Don't forget to take partial profits on the way to secure your trade.
Need to see if it can rise above 104463.99
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Have a great day.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The price declined from the DOM(-60) indicator level of 106431.68, but the DOM(-60) indicator is still forming at 106431.68.
Therefore, the 106431.68 level can be considered a low point.
Therefore, we need to observe how the price moves during this volatile period, around November 4th-9th (maximum November 3rd-10th).
Since it fell below the critical 104463.99-108353.0 level, if it fails to rise above this level, we should check for support near the next critical level of 89294.25.
At this point, the M-Siganl indicator on the 1M chart is passing through a critical zone, so it's expected to re-establish the trend once it meets the M-Siganl indicator on the 1M chart.
If the OBV indicator falls below the Low Line and fails to rise again, it's likely to touch EMA 3.
For the price to break above a critical point or zone and continue the uptrend,
1. The StochRSI indicator must be rising. Ideally, it should not be in an overbought zone.
2. The TC (Trend Check) indicator must be rising. Ideally, it should remain above the zero level.
3. The OBV indicator must be rising. Ideally, it should remain above the High Line.
If the above conditions are met, the upward trend is likely to continue after breaking above a critical point or zone.
Currently, the price is moving against the above conditions, so there's a possibility of further decline. However, given the volatility, it's better to wait and see rather than assume a decline.
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I'm curious about what will happen next, but there's no way to know for sure.
However, as I've repeatedly mentioned, if you're trading according to a basic trading strategy that suits your investment style, I believe you'll be able to trade according to your strategy, whether the current decline continues or rebounds and rises.
As I mentioned in a previous idea,
- If a daily decline exceeds -10%, a rebound is highly likely,
- If a daily increase exceeds +10%, a reversal is highly likely.
Therefore, if you're familiar with scalping or day trading, you can profit from trading.
However, you must sell at that profit to lock in your profits.
The basic trading strategy I mentioned is to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
Furthermore, we can respond based on the support and resistance levels identified on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, which are important areas.
Therefore, the current available support levels are the 104463.99-108.353.0 and 87814.27-93570.28 levels.
The remaining support and resistance levels can be used as trading opportunities.
In other words, these are points for securing profits.
-
Due to this decline, the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart is showing signs of forming at the 110105.69 level.
Therefore, if there is a rebound, the 110105.69 level could potentially serve as resistance.
However, as the price rises, the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart could return to its previous HA-High level.
Therefore, we need to determine if support is found in the 104463.99-108353.0 range and consider a response plan accordingly.
-
If the price falls below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and remains there, there's a possibility of a downtrend, so we should also consider a response plan.
The coin market operates in decimals, allowing for more flexible trading than the stock market.
This means that by trading at a buy price, you can profit even if you're losing money and increase your coin (token) holdings.
For example, if you bought $100 at $101,000, you could sell $100 (including transaction fees) when the price rises, increasing your profit.
By increasing your profit, you can quickly turn a loss into a profit.
If you bought $100 at 101,000 and only had 0.1 coins (tokens), you could sell those 0.1 coins and generate a cash profit if the price rises and you're making a profit.
However, this method is only applicable if you won't be trading that coin (token) again.
In other words, if you sell 100% of your holdings, you'll need to wait until the next price fluctuation, or you could end up making a worse trade.
Therefore, if possible, it's best to trade with the same amount you bought, increasing the number of coins (tokens) that represent your profit.
Don't think you should just leave the coin (token) you're losing and trade another coin (token) to make a profit.
This could actually lead to further losses.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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- This explains the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain in more detail when the bear market begins.
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BTCUSDT – Bulls Reload at Support, Eyeing the 200-Day SMA• Structure & SMA200
BTCUSDT is holding just above the 100,000 USDT zone after briefly dipping below support earlier this week. The 200-day SMA, now positioned near 110,000–111,000 USDT, remains the first major resistance and potential target if a rebound extends. Market structure still shows a sequence from HH to LL, but a short-term recovery phase could emerge if buyers manage to close back above 104,000–105,000 USDT.
• Open Interest (OI)
Open Interest sits around 84K, slightly lower than recent highs but still elevated compared to October levels. The ongoing rise since early November indicates a steady return of activity — possibly short-covering or early long positioning after the latest dip. Sustained OI growth during a rebound would support the idea of buyers re-entering the market.
• Funding Rate
The Funding Rate remains modestly positive, now around +0.0025%. This reflects a mild bullish bias with no sign of speculative overheating. A continuation of positive funding during upward movement would strengthen the short-term recovery scenario.
• Cumulative Delta Volume (CDV)
CDV has slipped further to around 8.18M, extending its downtrend from early October. No divergence has appeared yet, showing that real buy-side pressure remains weak. However, stabilization of CDV near current lows would be an early sign that selling momentum is fading.
• Most probable scenario
As long as the 100,000 USDT support area holds on a daily close, a technical rebound toward 106,000–110,000 USDT appears the most probable path. A move above 105,000–106,000 USDT would mark the start of this potential recovery phase.
If CDV stops declining and funding remains positive, BTC could retest the SMA200 in the coming sessions.
Conversely, a close below 100,000 USDT with a new CDV low would negate the rebound thesis and reopen risk toward 97,000 USDT.
→ Bullish trigger: daily close above 105,000–106,000 USDT with CDV flattening.
→ Invalidation: daily close below 100,000 USDT with continued CDV weakness.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
BTC/USDT (4H) Chart AnalysisThe chart shows Bitcoin’s 4-hour price action on Binance with clear Smart Money Concepts (SMC) elements, including BOS (Break of Structure), CHoCH (Change of Character), and EQH/EQL (Equal Highs/Lows) levels.
After a strong bullish phase that broke previous structure highs, BTC faced multiple CHoCH signals, confirming a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish. Price has since been trending downward, breaking key demand zones and forming lower highs and lower lows.
Currently, BTC is trading around $101,900, retesting the broken structure zone (previous support turned resistance). The volume profile shows increased selling pressure during breakdowns, suggesting sustained bearish momentum. RSI remains below 40, reflecting weak buying interest and potential continuation of the downtrend until bullish divergence forms.
Key levels to watch:
Immediate resistance: $103,700 – $104,500
Next resistance: $106,500
Support zone: $98,800 – $97,800
Next major liquidity area: Below weak low near $98,850
If BTC fails to reclaim the $104K–$106K region, further downside toward $98K remains likely. However, a strong bullish CHoCH around current levels could indicate a short-term reversal.
Bitcoin Consolidation Short-term bearish movementBitcoin price has been consolidating within a bearish structure after recently breaking down from the 110K level. The price is currently testing a key support zone, suggesting that bearish pressure remains intact in the short term.
Short-Term Outlook:
BTC is trading near 110K, where some short-term traders are taking profits. A minor recovery or retest toward the resistance zone could occur; however, the broader momentum remains bearish as long as BTC stays below 110K.
As long as Bitcoin trades below 110K, the bearish momentum is likely to continue. A break and close below 106K would confirm further downside potential toward 105K and possibly 102K. Conversely,
You may find more details ion the chart.
Trade wisely best of Luck Buddies.
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BTC: Bullish vs Bearish Scenarios - Key Levels to Watch BTC: Bullish vs Bearish Scenarios - Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin is in a very complex development and it is not so easy to have a clear idea. At the moment, BTC is still growing as long as it stays above the current support area of 1035000.
Bitcoin is approaching a key support zone around $103,500, where price action could decide the next major move.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
If the support holds, BTC could bounce strongly toward $110,200, with extended targets at $115,400, $120,700, and $125,000. A strong rejection wick or volume confirmation would support this upside move.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If BTC breaks below $103,500, a bearish continuation could unfold, targeting $99,400, $94,300, and potentially $88,600.
The next few candles will be crucial — watch how BTC reacts to the $103,500 zone for direction confirmation.
💡Bias: Neutral — waiting for breakout confirmation before taking sides.
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