$BTC Top-Down AnalysisCRYPTOCAP:BTC Top-Down Analysis
Currently, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is bearish on every timeframe from Weekly down to 30m TF.
Now let’s talk about where and when possible reversal could happen and which zones act as potential demand or supply areas.
(This is a technical analysis only not financial advice.)
Demand Zone (Potential Reversal Area)
On Weekly TF, there’s a bullish order block (OB) marked on chart below green box around $97K – $92.8K.
I personally believe CRYPTOCAP:BTC could tap this zone before forming new higher high.
Now, why this zone? Let’s count confluences:
1- Previous strong low liquidity zone.
2- Weekly, 3D, and Daily bullish OBs aligned.
3- Breaker block confirmation.
4- 4H accumulation zone.
All these line up perfectly in same region making it a high-probability demand area.
Possible Buy Setup
Yes, buys can be taken from this zone,
but only after confirmation otherwise it’s risky.
Your invalidation point should be a Weekly candle close below this OB.
For a proper reversal signal, wait for:
1- 1H / 4H CHOCH (Change of Character)
2- Or a bullish OB to form on the Daily TF
Supply Zones
Now let’s talk about supply zones.
On Weekly TF, as of now, there’s no supply zone.
But if current weekly candle closes below the wick of October 10th crash,
that will form a bearish OB turning into a potential Weekly supply zone.
On Daily TF, we already have two bearish OBs:
1- Around $109.5K
2- Around $113.8K
These are key resistance/supply zones to watch on any BTC rally.
Summary
1- Trend: Bearish across all TFs
2- Demand Zone: $97K – $92.8K
3- Supply Zones: $109.5K / $113.8K
4- Reversal Confirmation: 1H / 4H CHoCH or Daily Bullish OB
5- Invalidation: Weekly close below demand OB
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Trade ideas
$BTC (WEEKLY): Losing the KEY 50-week moving averageThe most important CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart to break down right now is the WEEKLY, no doubt.
I showed this DARK CLOUD COVER candlestick pattern 2 or 3 weeks ago (or candle closes ago, should I say). That’s in the past — right now, it’s all about the 50 MA.
Look at that yellow moving average and notice that the ongoing (or just finished) crypto BULL MARKET began in MARCH 2023 with a huge breakout around $20k+ (white arrow on chart). Since then, the yellow 50 MA has never been lost — it was breached a few times but never had a candle close below.
The 50 MA sits at $102.9k, so that’s the main resistance to beat. The weekly candle has to close above it in order to save any bullishness after losing the horizontal 109k key pivot level.
$92,500 and $94,500 — my two LONG orders. A close below the $94k mark and I’m OUT of these trades.
Not looking good, our #bitcoin — and this could be it.
Reclaiming $109k would be BULLISH and possibly a huge BULL TRAP. Longs ONLY from flash-crash levels, for me at least. You do you.
💙👽
BTCUSDT – Potential Bullish Reversal from Daily Demand ZoneAfter a strong liquidation move to the downside, BTC tapped into the daily demand zone between 98,900 – 101,000, creating a deep wick and showing clear signs of absorption.
This level also aligns with previous liquidity pools and the last unmitigated demand area from late September.
Bullish Scenario
I expect price to form a short-term base here and start building higher lows.
A daily close above 103,450 will be my first confirmation that buyers have regained control and the reversal is valid.
If that happens, I’ll look for long entries in the 102,500 – 103,500 area, targeting the following levels step by step:
• 🎯 106,600 → first supply zone
• 🎯 111,000 → structural break and confirmation
• 🎯 113,500 → imbalance fill
• 🎯 116,300 → final resistance before the major high
• 🎯 126,000 → full target (previous swing high)
Invalidation:
A daily close below 98,800 cancels this setup.
⸻
Summary
BTC has collected liquidity below the previous monthly low and is now reacting from a key demand zone.
As long as 98,800 holds, I remain bullish, expecting continuation toward 116k–126k in the coming weeks.
Temporary correctionBTC 1W...
*Don’t be afraid of this drop, it’s a big surrender.
From a technical perspective, the $100,000 level is a key psychological area that the price needs to reach.
From a fear and greed perspective, the market is in absolute fear, which I think is the best time to buy short.
But my general view of the market is that at this point; it could even go below $100,000, and that’s where things get a little tricky. If buyers don’t show support in time, sellers could take control and push the price down to $93,000.
Don't forget that a positive divergence has formed on the daily timeframe, which could be a factor in the price increase.
Always be a buyer of fear and a seller of greed...
Bitcoin falling to lower levels but be careful with fresh shortsBTC changed character on the h4 with a strong expansion to the downside. RR for fresh shorts is not in your favour, but upon relief, looking for a hedge is ideal.
However, sentiment will play an important role. Upon relief using support as resistance, many will enter this short bias. This could lead to a very important short squeeze.
BTC Analysis 30/10/2025BTC / USDT
Bitcoin is forming a massive ascending wedge pattern, a bearish pattern currently undergoing a bearish retest.
The 200-day EMA is a significant support level and has been tested multiple times in the past few weeks. The more it is retested, the weaker the support becomes.
The sharp drop on October 10th impacted the market's direction.
Bearish targets for this scenario:
First support: 103,000 - 100,000
Major support: 94,000 - 89,000
Summary: The market is currently bearish, and we can revise our analysis if Bitcoin manages to stabilize above 117,000.
BTC — Is This the End of Bitcoin’s Bull Market?First of all, I’ve been quite busy the past few weeks working on some exciting projects and developing new indicators that’s why I haven’t posted much here lately. But now I’m back with a fresh Bitcoin analysis, and there’s a lot to unpack.
Macro Context
BTC’s recent structure has played out exactly like a classic Wyckoff Distribution schematic.
Back in mid-July (14th July 2025), we printed a Buying Climax (BC), followed by an Upthrust (UT) → SFP / liquidity grab. Later, price formed a UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) → the final failed breakout, confirming buyer exhaustion and triggering the sharp sell-off event that followed.
After that sell-off, BTC retested the monthly resistance level at $115,764 twice:
The first attempt resulted in a clean rejection.
The second led to SFP of the high, confirming a bull trap and setting the tone for further downside.
The monthly resistance turned out to be the most ideal short entry, offering a near-perfect risk-to-reward setup after the clear rejection. The charts really tell the whole story, BTC has followed the technical structure perfectly.
Current Structure & Key Levels
Today, we tapped the $100K psychological level, aligning with the $2 trillion market cap, that produced an initial bounce.
The question now: is this the start of a meaningful bounce, or just a relief rally before further downside?
Looking at the wave structure, we are most likely in a Wave 3 (iii) → meaning more downside pressure remains probable.
BTCUSD (INDEX):
Key Low: $98,200 — Sell-Side Liquidity
0.618 Fib retracement: ~$94,254 — ideal long entry zone
Trend-based Fib Extension (1.0): ~$93,728
Yearly Open: $93,576
The Volume Profile shows a high-volume node between $98K–$94K, with the POC at $96.4K, perfectly aligning with the support trendline and key low.
This gives us a high-probability long zone between $98.2K and $93.5K, an area where multiple technical factors align:
Key low liquidity
Fib confluence (0.618 FR & 1.0 TBFE)
Yearly open
Volume cluster (POC)
Rising trendline support
Pattern Confluence
After the rejection at the monthly resistance ($115,764), a clear Head & Shoulders pattern also formed → another strong bearish confluence.
The neckline was broken cleanly, confirming the expectation for further downside, which is now playing out.
Psychological & Technical Zones
At the moment, $100K remains a psychological key support and the market is reacting accordingly.
Now it’s time to pay close attention as we approach critical levels, especially the long opportunity zone (98.2K–93.5K).
🟢 Ideal trade plan:
Long Entry Zone: $98.2K → $93.5K
Take Profit 1: $100K
Take Profit 2: $104K
Stop Loss: below the Yearly Open ($93.5K)
Summary
Structure: Wyckoff Distribution → Markdown Phase
Pattern: Head & Shoulders confirmed
Bias: Bearish, but approaching high-value long zone
Watch for: SFP of $98.2K → potential reversal trigger
Main invalidation: Below Yearly Open ($93.5K)
BTC continues to respect the technicals beautifully.
Stay patient! The next high-probability long setup is forming right in front of us.
🔍 Indicators used
DriftLine — Pivot Open Zones → For identifying key yearly/monthly/weekly/daily opens that act as major S/R reference points
LuxAlgo — Liquidity Sentiment Profile (Auto-Anchored)
➡️ Available for free. You can find it on my profile under “Scripts” and apply it directly to your charts for extra confluence when planning your trades.
_________________________________
💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment!
BTC High Probability Forecast Based on Real Math Bitcoin has repeatedly corrected ~mid-20% during the last 12–24 months. Using this empirical drawdown profile, a base-case correction of ~25% from a recent $126,000 high implies a **probable correction low near $94,500–$95,000.
This is a high probability forecast based on real math and stats, not science
fiction. No expanding triangles, Elliott Wave counts, Wolfe and Dragon patterns.
Bitcoin does not trade by the textbook. This is real world TA by a pro trader.
Tactical view: Expect a final flush toward ~$95k, then a reversal/bounce if market structure and liquidity conditions confirm.
Confidence: VERY HIGH —pattern consistency is notable, but crypto remains headline- and liquidity-sensitive. Use disciplined risk controls. 🧠
2) Recent Corrections (Past 12–24 Months)
# High → Low % Drawdown
1 $72,000 → $54,000 25%
2 $108,000 → $76,000 28%
3 $70,000 → $50,000 28%
4 $74,000 → $56,000 24%
Empirical mean drawdown:
(25+28+28+24)÷4 = 26.25%.
We’ll use 25% as the base-case assumption (conservative vs. the 26.25% mean). ✅
Projection for the Current Correction
Reference high: $126,000
Base-case (25%) low:
$126,000 × (1 − 0.25) = $94,500
Empirical-mean (26.25%) low:
$126,000 × (1 − 0.2625) = $92,925
Projected buy-zone: $92.9k – $95k, centered near $95k. 🎯
Is a visit to $100k about to print for Bitcoin? - October 15thUp’October is widely expected, myself included. Statistically speaking the 2nd October post Halving is a strong green month. All the influencers are talking about it. That was until the largest forced liquidation event in the history of the asset class wiped out $19billion. What a number. One man, one tweet = mass panic.
The liquidations cascaded one after the other sending a number of alternative tokens all the way to near zero before quickly recovering. Confidence in the Ponzi scheme has taken quite a hit. In fairness market participants must accept some blame, 80% of the money entering the space was on leverage products with the small remainder into spot positions. In summary the liquidity in the spot market is near non existent. No one is touching it, which was first identified in the " Is alt season dead? " idea.
The technical analysis
Price action follows an upward trending channel on the above 4 day chart. Price action has recently rejected the medium line and confirmed it as resistance for the 3rd time. Look left, previous events sent price action to the lower side of the channel. Is this time different?
“Strong” and “weak”, notice the labels here? When price action tests the Gaussian channel (uptrend or downtrend) it is expected to bounce strongly as a confirmation of the current momentum behind the trend.
The test at this moment is a 4 day candle that prints today, the reaction to the channel has been anything but strength, it is complete weakness. This is what happens when interest in the asset is sub-zero, buyers are nowhere to be seen.
** It is highly likely price action shall test the lower side of the channel should a candle body print inside the channel **
In order words, price action will correct to $92k should it drop in a straight line. Looking left a period of up to 30 days is likely to follow before a test. The channel is rising and price action would likely be around $102k by mid-November.
** This will be the reddest October ever! **
$102k, a line in the sand
Price action at this level cannot fail support as shown on the above 4 day chart. Broken market structure would be confirmed should a candle body close under this level. That would mean Bitcoin entered a bear market and trend reversal.
Conclusions
Bitcoin has now reached a point in the structure where the reaction must be strong, but it isn’t. The rejection from the channel midline for the third time and the subsequent weak Gaussian test are not the signs of a healthy uptrend.
If price action fails to hold, it risks closing a 4-day candle body inside the Gaussian channel, a condition that historically precedes a move to the lower boundary. Based on the current slope, that lower test aligns near $92,000 tomorrow and $102k by mid-November.
There’s still room for recovery, but it must happen immediately. The longer Bitcoin trades near channel support with low volume, the greater the probability of structural failure.
Should a confirmed close occur below $102k, that would officially mark the first trend reversal since the 2024 post-halving rally, a shift from expansion to contraction. In simple terms, a break below this level transitions Bitcoin from bull to bear.
For now, October’s historical strength remains a statistic, not a guarantee. The market doesn’t care what month it is, only where the liquidity is.
Ww
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Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and expresses personal opinion, not financial advice. I hold no position in Bitcoin and no vested interest in it.
Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and unpredictable. Always conduct your own analysis, manage your risk carefully, and never trade solely based on another person’s idea.
Patience, confirmation, and risk control, the only things that survive every market cycle.
BTC TO KEEP SELLINGBUYERS HAS LOST THE BUY WAR,THE TECHNICAL INFORMATION ON THE CHART PREDICTS MORE BEARISH DAYS AHEAD FOR THE CRYPTO LOVERS.
MARKET STRUCTURE NEVER LIES .
TECHNICAL INFORMATION
BREAK AND RETESTE 107,321.73 THEY SOLD
BREAK AND RETEST 104,809.93 THEY SOLD
BREAK AND RETEST 103,368.73 THEY SOLD
KEY SUPPORT ON 3HR CHART 90,765-88K ZONE ON THE DESCENDING TRENDLINE
KEY SUPPORT ON 3HR 83,300-79K ON THE DESCENDING TRENDLINE
LAYER BY LAYER
FUNDAMENTAL INFORMATION ABOUT BITCOIN
Crypto Meltdown Deepens: $90B Vanishes in an Hour as Traders Face $1.3B in Forced Liquidations
Bitcoin is the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency, launched in 2009 by an unknown person or group using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. It allows peer-to-peer transactions without relying on banks or central authorities. Bitcoin transactions are recorded on a public ledger called the blockchain, which is maintained by a network of computers (miners) that validate and secure transactions through cryptographic proofs.
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a digital currency that enables secure and transparent transfers over the internet.
Not owned or controlled by any single entity—it operates on a decentralized network.
Uses blockchain technology to maintain a permanent, public transaction record.
Supply is capped at 21 million coins, making it a scarce, deflationary asset.
Network Security and Hash Rate: The computing power devoted to mining, indicating network strength and resilience.
Transaction Volume and Adoption: Growth in users, wallets, and real-world usage reflect demand.
Supply Schedule: Bitcoin’s issuance halves roughly every four years, reducing new supply and potentially driving scarcity.
Institutional Interest: Investment flows from funds, corporations, and ETFs show confidence and liquidity.
Regulatory Environment: Legal clarity or restrictions impact market sentiment.
Macro Factors: Inflation trends, fiat currency strength, and geopolitical uncertainties influence Bitcoin as a store of value or risk asset.
Summary
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency secured by cryptography and maintained on a blockchain network. Its fundamentals include the network’s security, supply scarcity, adoption rates, institutional interest, and macroeconomic influences, all of which shape its price and long-term value proposition.
#BTC #BITCOIN
Crypto Markets Enter a Volatile Week Ahead of Key Global EventsKey events shaping volatility this week:
Oct 29: FED rate decision (expected -0.25%)
Oct 30: Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea
Market sentiment:
Fear & Greed Index jumped from 22–34 → 51
Short-term optimism is returning as macro uncertainty softens
CRYPTOCAP:BTC Technical Zone:
Current resistance: $115,500–117,000
Support: $110,000
A confirmed breakout above 117K could open the way to the next bullish leg on OKX:BTCUSDT
Question remains: is this the start of a new rally or just a pre-correction bounce?
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🧠 DYOR | This is not financial advice, just thinking out loud.






















