Hey Btc What Do You Want ?Hello TradingView community, Bitcoin continues to move within a well-structured rising parallel channel a pattern that has beautifully guided its trend since early 2024. Each touch on the rising support has offered meaningful rebounds, while the upper boundary has acted as a clear zone of supply and exhaustion.
However the current weekly setup suggests a shift in momentum that deserves attention. Price is now hovering near the rising support line, and although this zone has previously triggered strong bullish responses, the internal structure looks notably weaker this time.
1. Structure and Price Behavior-:
The recent rejection from the $114,700 resistance — which aligns with the mid-channel zone — shows how sellers continue to dominate near this region.
While the overall trend remains upward, each successive swing high has shown diminishing bullish strength, hinting that buyers are gradually losing control of the short-term momentum.
If Bitcoin fails to hold this rising support, it could shift the medium-term tone from accumulation to correction.
2. Resistance Dynamics-:
The $114,700 area holds strong confluence:
It coincides with multiple past swing highs.
It aligns with the median of the rising channel.
It represents a psychological round figure where institutional activity tends to appear.
This zone acts as a decisive line between continuation and reversal — reclaiming it could reinstate bullish dominance, but repeated failure would open the path toward lower supports.
3. RSI and Internal Momentum-:
The RSI (14) presents a clear bearish divergence, forming lower highs even as price carved new peaks. This ongoing divergence since early 2024 highlights a loss of internal strength — a common precursor to larger consolidations or trend reversals.
Recently, RSI also broke below its local support trendline, reinforcing the idea that bearish momentum is gaining traction beneath the surface.
4. Probable Scenarios-:
Scenario A -:Technical Rebound:
Bitcoin could attempt a short-term rebound from the current rising support toward the $110K–$114K zone. Such a move, however, might remain corrective unless accompanied by a visible increase in volume and RSI recovery.
Scenario B -:Deeper Correction:
A clean breakdown below the rising support would likely expose Bitcoin to the weekly demand zone between $75,000 and $70,000 — a region that historically attracted strong buying interest.
This area aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the larger advance, making it a technically sound demand pocket.
5. Broader Context-:
Despite near-term weakness, the macro structure of Bitcoin remains constructive. Corrections within rising channels are normal and often healthy — they reset sentiment, absorb excess leverage, and allow new institutional positions to build.
As long as Bitcoin respects the lower boundary of this channel, the broader bullish narrative remains intact. But a confirmed weekly breakdown could temporarily shift the trend bias toward medium-term consolidation before the next major impulsive leg.
Technical Summary-:
Pattern: Rising Parallel Channel
Resistance: $114,700
Support: Rising Trendline (~$97,000)
Demand Zone: $75,000 – $70,000
RSI: Bearish Divergence + Breakdown
Bias: Cautiously Bearish / Corrective Phase
Regards---Amit
