NVIDIA – A New World First, Where Next?A mere 24 hours after Apple become the third company in history to reach a $4 trillion valuation, NVIDIA set a new benchmark by becoming the first company ever to register a market capitalisation of $5 trillion.
Despite concerns about over extended valuations, the news flow for NVIDIA was initially positive to start this new week as the company attempts to solidify its future at the centre of the potential AI revolution.
CEO Jensen Huang revealed the company had received $500 billion of AI chip orders, including contracts to build supercomputers for the US government and then President Trump commented on Wednesday that NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell chips could be a discussion point when he meets with President Xi at Thursday’s summit in South Korea.
Putting this into numbers, after opening on Monday at 189.25, the stock soared 12% across the first 3 trading days to a high of 212.19 on Wednesday. That move brought its year-to-date rally to 54%, very impressive indeed! Although, it must be said that prices did slip back to close the day at 207.04.
However, overnight the positive sentiment may have stalled slightly, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 25bps as expected but Chairman Powell provided a more cautious outlook on future cuts than had been anticipated. Also, earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta released late on Wednesday were mixed, with strong profits offset by rising costs.
Looking forward, the initial updates from the President Trump and President Xi meeting has started to arrive on newswires and traders will be keen to assess the actual details of what was discussed about NVIDIA chip sales between the two countries. A crucial aspect could be whether sales of NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell chip was discussed and if not, what were the reasons why.
Then it’s eyes down for the release of Amazon and Apple earnings after the close tonight which could either confirm the recent bullish moves or throw a sentiment curve ball which could negatively impact in positioning into the weekend.
Technical Update: Acceleration Higher Shifts Focus to Extension Resistance
In just six trading sessions, NVIDIA's share price has rallied over 20%, reaching fresh all-time highs. Such a rapid acceleration can often signal strong momentum but also raises the risk of short-term upside exhaustion, although it's difficult to pinpoint where such moves might slow or even see risks of possible reversal.
In this environment, traders might monitor support and resistance levels, with resistance zones signalling potential for profit-taking, while breaks below support could lead to further price weakness.
[b Potential Resistance Levels:
As price action pushes into uncharted territory with new all-time highs, identifying resistance becomes a challenge. However, traders often turn to Fibonacci extension levels, derived from the most recent correction, to highlight potential areas where upside momentum may slow or even reverse.
As the chart above shows, for NVIDIA, this last correction developed between October 10th and October 22nd and the latest strength appears to be stalling in the short term ahead of 213.23, a level equal to the 100% Fibonacci extension.
There is no guarantee such extension levels will be successful in capping price strength and closing breaks above the 213.23 resistance may shift focus to 220.14, which is the higher 138.2% extension level.
Potential Support Levels:
To maintain NVIDIA’s current price strength, traders may now be focused on Wednesday’s low at 204.78 as near-term support; if price weakness tests this level, its defense will be watched, as a closing break below 204.78 could trigger further downside pressure.
A close below 204.78 could lead to tests of 198.59, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October 22nd to 29th rally, but if that support gives way, risks may extend toward 194.39, the deeper 50% retracement level.
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