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NVDA trade ideas

NVDA SELLIf you have not SELL NVDA, than be prepare to SELL NVDA riding it back down to 93.00 to 77.00 as Profit Targets, Stop Loss will be determine later! If anyone likes long mumbo jumbo garbage analysis, than this is NOT for you. Also, if you are afraid of risk, failure, and want only a 100% sure thing, than run as fast as you can from the market, because the market is NOT a sure thing, so it is definitely NOT for you. WARNING: This is just opinions of the market and its only for journaling purpose. This information and any publication here are NOT meant to be, and do NOT constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations. Trading any market instrument is a RISKY business, so do your own due diligence, and trade at your own risk. You can loose all of your money and much more.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by pstock123
NVIDIA NVIDIA Corporation is a leading American technology company headquartered in Santa Clara, California, renowned for designing and manufacturing graphics processing units (GPUs) that power gaming, professional visualization, and artificial intelligence (AI) applications. Founded in 1993, NVIDIA revolutionized the graphics industry with its GeForce series of consumer GPUs and expanded into AI computing, becoming a key supplier of AI chips globally. Key Aspects of NVIDIA in 2025: Dominates the discrete GPU market with approximately 92% market share. Powers more than 75% of the world’s fastest supercomputers, particularly in AI and machine learning workloads. Achieved a historic market capitalization exceeding $4 trillion in mid-2025. Continues to release advanced AI models and platforms, leveraging its GPU technology for sectors like autonomous vehicles, data centers, and cloud computing. Has a strategic partnership with Intel to jointly develop AI infrastructure and integrated CPU-GPU platforms. Strong innovation focus on AI edge computing, high-performance computing (HPC), and neural network acceleration. NVIDIA remains a central force in the global semiconductor ecosystem, driving advancements in AI, gaming, and professional graphics. #AI #STOCKS #NVIDIA
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Shavyfxhub
Trend Reversal (Drummond Geometry)Trend Reversal 🔄 Spot and trade sharp market reversals using Drummond Geometry. 1. What It Is A trend reversal is a sharp, sudden change in market direction. Defined as 3 consecutive closes on one side of the PL Dot immediately following a trend in the opposite direction. Can also occur from congestion , so always be open to reversal setups First image shows the congestion entrance bar Second image shows the bars that have a close on the same side of the PLdot, thus confirming a a trend-up Third image shows the immediate shift (reversal) And finally the trend down 2. Market Context The market alternates between trend runs and congestion . Bars are categorized as: Trend bars : 3 closes on the same side of the PL Dot. Congestion entrance : A close on the opposite side of the PL Dot after a trend. Congestion action : Oscillations back and forth across the PL Dot. Congestion exit : Trend emerging from congestion. 3. Signs of a Trend Reversal PL Dot pulls back into bar range. A 5-9, 5-2, 5-1, or 6-1 line appears in the preceding bar. Resistance/support against the old trend holds; levels in the new trend direction break. The original block level may be violated (not mandatory). 4. The Cornerline A diagonal line linking the isolated high/low of congestion entrance with the trend reversal bar . It’s the bar that confirms a sharp directional shift. Specifically, it’s the first bar to close on the opposite side of the PL Dot after a trend, followed by two more bars closing on that side (making the full reversal pattern). It often violates the original block level from the previous trend (though that’s not required). This bar is linked with the congestion entrance bar via the cornerline—a key diagonal that helps confirm if the reversal has real strength. So, think of it as the pivot bar that kicks off the new trend, showing that momentum has flipped hard enough to change market structure. Rarely broken in a true reversal. High-energy reversals influence all following congestion structure. 5. Anticipation Tips Watch focus time period (FTP) within higher time period (HTP) envelopes. Daily reversals often align with: Daily congestion entrance signs. Monthly cycles or c-waves pushing weekly structure. PL Dot pressure at higher levels. 📌 Trader’s Edge: Trend reversals are fast, decisive moves often starting from strong HTP energy zones. Look for PL Dot pullbacks, strong block levels, and cornerlines to confirm. Once validated, they can define the next major swing or cycle.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by JordanMT
Nvidia - the bigger pictureNVIDIA is in a short-term correction within a healthy long-term uptrend In the short term, NVDA is undergoing a healthy correction, pulling back toward the $150 area—a level close to July’s low. Such a retracement is well within normal bounds and may offer an attractive entry point for those bullish on the stock’s longer-term trajectory. Looking at the medium and long term, the technical and fundamental picture remains firmly bullish. The stock is still riding a strong uptrend supported by its leadership in AI, solid earnings, and innovation-driven growth. Critically, if NVDA closes a weekly candle decisively below $150 (i.e., below the July low), it would no longer fall into the "healthy correction" category and could signal a deeper technical shift—one that warrants increased vigilance. Why this makes sense: Healthy pullback zone: The $150–July low area represents a typical retracement level, likely serving as support before a continued climb higher. Long-term strength remains intact: Broad trend dynamics and fundamentals are still supportive of further upside Weekly close below $150 is key: Only a breakdown on the weekly timeframe would prompt a reassessment of the trend’s integrity. What I’m Watching Next: Break Above $173 A daily candle closing above $173 resistance would serve as a trend continuation signal, suggesting renewed bullish momentum and likely reopening the move higher toward previous highs. Breakdown Below $165 Conversely, a close under $165 would most likely extend the correction toward $150, marking a deeper retracement into the support area.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by DK_Investment
NVDA is Near it's TopHello I am the Cafe Trader. Today we’re looking at NVDA. This is the first time I’ve shared a Fibonacci study with you. The way I’ve mapped it is simple — start from the beginning of the bull run, and anchor it to the 61.8% retracement of the pullback. From this we can calculate where tops are typically found. (I stumbled upon this method trading with another trader who only used Fib's. I pointed this out to him, and we both got quiet...) As of now, NVDA Is nearing the top of a channel, and close to the top of our FIB Extension. This is where rallies tend to stall, and the reaction here will determine if this becomes a temporary pause or a full reversal (unlikely). Red Scenario If we get rejection in this zone, NVDA could pull back into the demand area around 164–170. That’s the level where I’d expect buyers to step back in. Longer term, I see NVDA as still bullish, but needing to cool down in the short term. Adding at 164 can be an aggressive way to continue to stack your long term. Thanks for reading, as always Happy Trading! @thecafetrader
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by thecafetrader
1
Clear downtrend $NVDA! It's only the largest company in the world and holds about 8% of the entire US stock market! Nothing to worry about that it's break key technical indicators and showing a clear downtrend. Again, it's probably nothing that it's overvalued and has a very concentration of 2-3 customers that make-up most of their revenue. The UltraShort signal supports this. Remember that September it typically a bad month for the market and really bad things happen! When in doubt, sell and stay cash friendly! You don't want to be holding a bag and praying that things go up. Hope is NOT a strategy!
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by antonini2002
Labor Market vs. Inflation Risks: What Traders Should WatchCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! CBOT_MINI:YM1! CBOT:ZN1! CBOT:ZB1! ECONOMICS:USNFP The stock market is currently holding near all-time highs. Today, the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) report, which includes the NFP (non-farm payrolls), will be released at 7:30 am CT. Market participants are closely watching the non-farm payrolls, with the forecast at 75K, as well as any prior revisions to earlier NFP numbers. The unemployment rate is expected at 4.3%, a slight increase of 0.1%. Looking ahead, upcoming key events include inflation data and the September FOMC rate decision: • Aug PPI (Sep 10): A gauge of upstream price pressures. Hot numbers would signal renewed inflation risks. • Aug CPI & Core CPI (Sep 11): Critical headline data. A softer print would support the dovish case. • Fed Decision (Sep 17): This meeting comes after the Aug NFP data release (Sep 5). While there is broad optimism and euphoria in the market, we remain cautious based on our analysis of major futures indexes. Traders should be mindful of signals that could point to a pullback. Our reasoning: Markets are currently pricing in two 25 bps cuts for the September and October FOMC meetings, which would bring the target rate down to 3.75%–4.00%. Additionally, markets are now pricing in four 25 bps cuts in 2026. Prior to the Jackson Hole meeting and recent Fed-related developments, expectations were for three cuts in 2025 and two cuts in 2026. Does this imply that the effective tariff rate is benign? Is inflation expected to fall, or does this suggest that the Fed is willing to tolerate average inflation in the 2.5%–3.0% range? The upcoming Fed meeting is likely to emphasize risks to the labor market, while downplaying inflation risks, highlighting the tradeoff within the Fed’s dual mandate. Other considerations: Seasonal and cyclical flows also suggest that equity indexes tend to underperform in September and October on average. Risk-Monitoring Framework: Signs of a Pullback Given the deteriorating macro backdrop, further steepening of the yield curve, persistently high long-end yields, and the heavy concentration of stock market capitalization in the Mag 9 stocks, it is critical to monitor: 1. Rates & Yield Curve • 2s10s & 5s30s steepening: Excess steepening with long-end yields above 4.5% would tighten financial conditions. • SOFR futures spreads: Divergence vs. FOMC guidance can signal rate-path misalignment. 2. Labor Market Signals • NFP revisions: Downward revisions of >50K would reinforce labor weakness. • Unemployment rate: Sustained above 4.3% could mark a turning point for the Fed’s labor mandate. 3. Inflation Data • PPI upside surprises: A risk that supply-side shocks re-ignite inflationary pressures. • CPI/Core CPI stickiness: Core >3.1% YoY would challenge the market’s dovish pricing. 4. Equity Market Internals • Mag 9 leadership: Watch for relative weakness in NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA, GOOG, AVGO, and BRK.A. • Breadth indicators: Advance/decline line and % of S&P 500 above 200-day MA. Narrowing breadth = fragility. • Volatility (VIX): A spike above 20 would indicate stress returning to equity risk sentiment. 5. Cross-Asset Indicators • Credit spreads (IG & HY): Widening signals stress in funding markets. • USD & Commodities: Rising USD and higher energy prices would tighten global liquidity. Conclusion While optimism remains strong, we caution that macro deterioration, yield curve dynamics, and concentrated equity leadership create fragility. Pullback risks rise if: • NFP disappoints sharply, • inflation re-accelerates, or • outperformance in the Mag 9 begins to roll over. Traders should monitor these risk indicators closely, as they often precede market drawdowns in September–October.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by EdgeClear
Certainly Uncertain - How Much Confirmation Do You Need?So ... you have what looks like a set up. "Just one more bar" "Just wait for the close" "Wait for this indicator to align" "Watch for the next to align" "Ensure this filter shows ‘green lights go’" But by the time everything lines up The move has gone. The horse has bolted You fumble to enter - all fingers and thumbs You ‘feel’ like you’re chasing Perhaps the moment has passed. Flummoxed - you wonder - what the heck happened here? Feel familiar? The search for absolute certainty shows up in subtle ways: Emotions: Anxiety builds. A conflict between wanting to act and restraining the impulse. Applying self control with will … but the body and mind unsettled. Thoughts: Endless “what if” scenarios. What if I miss it. What if it goes without me What if I just try and get ahead of this at a better price Physical Cues: Tension rises in the body showing up as a hand hovering over the mouse, heart rate climbing - eyes fixated on the screens, backside glued to the seat (for fear of missing it). If you’ve ever experienced this, you may recognise it as feeling cautious or disciplined. In the pursuit of being disciplined and true to your rules you feel out of alignment and hesitant. Markets are uncertain by nature. If we choose to engage with uncertainty, then surely the job is to create a sense of certainty within ourselves. The question is how do you do this currently? A coping mechanism that might help: Breathe. Centering your breath is one of the most under rated and effective ways to calm ones nervous system. Reframe your entry as a probability, not a verdict. Before you click, remind yourself: This trade doesn’t have to be certain, it just has to meet my criteria. Then execute and let the outcome be data - not proof of your worth. Adopt the mantra… ‘ This is one trade in a 1000’ Cultivate the state of certainty in uncertain environments one trade at a time.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by soda8888
12
Checking for support near 171.26 Hello, traders! Follow me to get the latest information quickly. Have a great day! ------------------------------------- (NVDA 1M chart) The basic trading strategy is to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range. However, if the price rises from the HA-High to DOM(60) range, a step-like uptrend is likely, while if it falls from the DOM(-60) to HA-Low range, a step-like downtrend is likely. Therefore, the basic trading strategy should be a segmented trading strategy. - Looking at the current 1M chart, the HA-High to DOM(60) range is 121.80-138.23. Therefore, if the price holds above 121.80-138.23, the step-like uptrend is likely to continue. The left Fibonacci ratio was drawn in the first wave, and the key is whether the price can rise above 3.618 (181.85) and hold. The right Fibonacci ratio was drawn in the second wave, and the key is whether the price can rise above 1 (198.88). Therefore, the key question is whether the price can break above the 181.85-198.88 range. If the price fails to rise, 1st: 152.89 2nd: 121.80-138.23 We need to check for support near the 1st and 2nd levels above. - (1D chart) The HA-High ~ DOM(60) range on the 1D chart is 180.76-182.70. Therefore, for a stepwise uptrend to begin, the price must rise above 180.76-182.70 and maintain its position. The 171.26 level is the HA-High indicator level on the 1W chart. Therefore, the key question is whether support is found near 171.26. If it falls below 171.26, it is likely to decline until it meets the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart. At this point, the key is whether it can find support near 152.89, the Fibonacci 3 level (157.76) to the left. If it falls below the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart, there is a possibility of a downtrend, so you should consider a response plan. ------------------------------------------------ If this is your first time hearing this explanation, you may not understand what I'm talking about. The important thing is that the DOM(-60) and HA-Low indicators indicate lows, while the DOM(60) and HA-High indicators indicate highs. Therefore, buys should be made near the DOM(-60) and HA-Low indicators, and sells should be made near the DOM(60) and HA-High indicators. To interpret charts from a long-term perspective, you need to check the positions of the DOM(-60), HA-Low, HA-High, and DOM(60) indicators on the 1M chart. The 1W chart is interpreted from a medium- to long-term perspective, while the 1D chart is interpreted from a short-term perspective. In the stock market, price fluctuations are often driven by issues other than the chart itself, so it's important to always be aware of volatility. Even so, since volatility ultimately occurs after the chart is created, it's best to analyze the chart first and then examine other issues. Otherwise, you'll likely end up creating a trading strategy that heavily reflects your own subjective opinions. - Thank you for reading to the end. I wish you successful trading. --------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:NVDA
by readCrypto
1
Nvidia at a Crossroads – Support or Steeper Decline?Nvidia shares have fallen by about 6% since the company reported results on 27 August. The stock has now reached an important inflection point, trading in a range between $165 and $170, which is a major area of technical support. If this support is broken, it could see the shares slip towards $150 — a further decline of around 12% from their price of roughly $171 on 2 September. The zone between $165 and $170 has acted as a support region on a few occasions since the gap higher on 15 July. That gap, however, was filled on 22 July, and it is possible that support at $165 has now been exhausted. This would mean that a retest of $165 could lead to the shares falling to their next support level, which is at the previous highs of $150. We have also seen a change in trend for Nvidia, with the stock now trading below a trend line that has been in place since early May. It is also trading below its 20-day moving average, which has started to turn lower. The relative strength index (RSI) confirms this change in trend, as it has also been trending lower. The RSI formed a bearish divergence in late July after climbing above 70, a point at which the RSI began making lower highs while the share price continued to make higher highs. If the stock is able to maintain support between $165 and $170, climb back above the 20-day moving average, and, more importantly, break the downtrend in the RSI, then it is possible that Nvidia could withstand this move lower and contain its losses, with an attempt to make another push towards all-time highs. Outside of that, the road ahead for Nvidia looks challenging. Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by cmcmarkets
NVDA $182 Weekly CALL Setup – Cheap Premium, Big Upside? # 🚀 NVDA Weekly Options Trade Idea (2025-09-03) ### 📊 Multi-Model Recap * **Daily RSI**: 📉 34.3 (weak) * **Weekly RSI**: 🔻 73.2 (falling) * **Volume**: +1.3x → institutional distribution signs * **Options Flow**: 🔥 C/P = 1.96 (bullish skew) * **Gamma/Theta**: ⚡ High risk (2 DTE) 👉 Models Split: * 🐻 Bearish: Claude, Gemini → favor \$165 PUT * 🐂 Bullish: Llama, Grok → favor \$175 CALL * 😶 Neutral/No Trade: Claude (low confidence) --- ### 🧭 Consensus Read * Price & volume = bearish ⚠️ * Options flow & VIX = bullish 📈 * Net: **Mixed bias → tactical bullish bounce possible** --- ### ✅ Trade Setup (Viral Play) ```json { "instrument": "NVDA", "direction": "CALL", "strike": 175, "expiry": "2025-09-05", "entry_price": 0.68, "profit_target": 1.36, "stop_loss": 0.34, "size": 1, "confidence": 0.65, "entry_timing": "market open" } ``` --- ### 🎯 Trade Details * 📌 **Strike**: \$182 CALL * 💵 **Entry**: 0.68 (ask, open) * 🎯 **Target**: 1.36 (+100%) * 🛑 **Stop**: 0.34 (-50%) * 📅 **Expiry**: Sep 5 (2 DTE) * 📈 **Confidence**: 65% * ⏰ **Hold Policy**: Close by Thu EOD (don’t ride Friday gamma bomb) --- ⚠️ **Risks**: * 2 DTE = 🔥 high gamma / fast theta decay * Divergent signals → whipsaws possible * Tight stop discipline required 🚨
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by quantsignals
NVDA is going down for a while ...NVDA is continuing downward. I have the target as being around middle of October or later. I used the Heikin Ashi candles: 1: They show more of a directional movement. 2: They tend to filter out the market noise, so you can see the direction better. 3: it reduces false signals, allowing you to stay in the trade longer. 4: And it also gives a smoother appearance making it easier to see the trends and reversals. My stops are: 1) the high of the previous Heikin Ashi candlestick, 2) 2 green Heikin Ashi candlesticks, 3) a specific dollar amount for a total loss for my trade or 4) a specific dollar amount per contract. If it hits one of those stops, I am out of my trade. Typically, I would wait until there are 2 red daily Heikin Ashi candlesticks before entering which it has shown as of today. I use the MacD, the Stock RSI and the DMI to assist me with the direction of the market. I am not perfect at them. I personally find: * the 5 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the next half and hour. * the 10 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the next hour. * the 30 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the daily. * and, the hour indicators typically represents what will happen in the next week. If you look at the weekly indicators, they are bearish already which shows a longer term directional movement. Trade at your own risk, make sure you have stops in place and only use 10% of your trading account, so that if you are wrong, you will not blow up your account. Happy trading!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Princessgirl
The Trader's Mind: Stoic Balance and The 5 TruthsHello, fellow seekers. Today, let's set aside the charts for a moment and talk about the single most important tool in our arsenal: our mind. A winning strategy is useless if the mind operating it is in a state of chaos. The key to consistency is not a secret indicator, but a balanced internal state. Two of the most powerful frameworks for achieving this balance are the modern wisdom of trader Mark Douglas and the ancient philosophy of Stoicism. They are two different paths leading to the same truth. Mark Douglas's 5 Fundamental Truths of Trading Anything can happen. You don't need to know what is going to happen next to make money. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. Every moment in the market is unique. The Echo of Stoicism These truths echo the teachings of Stoic philosophers like Marcus Aurelius. They teach us to accept what is outside our control (market movements) and focus only on what is within our control (our process, our risk, our mindset). This is the path to emotional flow, not suppression. It is watching the river of fear and greed flow by without being swept away by the current. From Theory to Practice This isn't just theory; it's the practical foundation for how we navigate the markets. In my next posts on NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:OPEN , you'll see exactly how these principles are applied in real-time to manage both a losing trade and a winning one. Just shine. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It is for educational and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by TheTradingDoct0r
$NVDA The Vanguard Coils-Gathers Fuel for its Next AscentTraders, when the General pauses, we look to the Vanguard for clues. NASDAQ:NVDA has been a quintessential market leader, a rocket ship charting a course through clear skies. Its current price action is a critical piece of the puzzle for where the entire market may be headed next. The Technical Landscape The strength in this chart is undeniable. It is the definition of a stock in a powerful uptrend. Relative Strength: NASDAQ:NVDA has consistently outperformed the broader market, making it a key barometer of risk appetite. Current Pattern: The rocket ship is refueling. Price is consolidating in an exceptionally tight and orderly pattern right below the $182 resistance level. Critically, volume has been declining during this coil—a classic sign that sellers are scarce and the next move is likely to be upward. Key Support: The launchpad for this consolidation is the support level around $170 . This area must hold for the immediate bullish structure to remain intact. The Philosophy Strength begets strength. In the market, this is a fundamental truth. To bet against an asset displaying such clear and persistent power is a low-probability endeavor. The current coil is not a topping pattern; it's a continuation pattern in waiting. It's the moment of calm before the engines reignite. While the broader market takes a breath, leaders like NASDAQ:NVDA often complete their rest cycle first. How this pattern resolves will provide a powerful clue about the market's true intentions. We do not predict; we observe and align ourselves with demonstrated power. An Illustrative Setup The trade thesis is born from this powerful consolidation: The Bullish Trigger: A confirmed breakout above $182 on increased volume is the signal that the refueling is complete and the next leg of the ascent has begun. The Warning Signal: A failure to hold the $170 support would indicate a temporary mechanical issue, suggesting a deeper pullback is required before the journey can continue. Watch the leader. It will often show the way. Remember to just shine! Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It is for educational and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by TheTradingDoct0r
1
NVDA eyes on $183.72 again: Golden Genesis Fib about to Break? NVDA looks ready for a break out to new highs. Beating against the Golden Genesis at $183.72 Looking for a Break-n-Run, maybe no retest even. $195.01 is first target and should be quick. $201.51 is next target maybe after a dip. $177.82 is high support for bulls to hold. . Previous analysis that gave EXACT Shorts from this Fib: Hit BOOST and FOLLOW for more such PRECISE and TIMELY charts. ========================================================= .
NASDAQ:NVDA
by EuroMotif
NVIDIA to $900? That’s what an AI debate tool just told meSo I stumbled on this AI tool named "AI Debate" that analyzes stocks. At first, I tried Apple and Microsoft — the results were solid, very thorough, but nothing shocking. Then I plugged in NVIDIA. And the “AI experts” came back saying that at current levels, there’s still a 4–5x upside. From around $180 to a target above $900. My jaw dropped. Honestly, it feels unbelievable. But here’s the thing: I kinda trust this more than random human “gurus” with agendas. At least the AI is pulling fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, and laying it out objectively — no one is pumping their own bags. Can I try buying some NVDA？ Or can you break down where the AI analysis might be flawed? Below is the evidence: Analysis log： AI Warren Buffett: NVIDIA is a remarkable company with outstanding profitability and growth—its return on equity is over 115%, net margins exceed 50%, and revenue is growing at a blistering pace. The business is financially sound, with a strong balance sheet and ample free cash flow. If you look at the numbers alone, it’s easy to see why so many investors are excited. However, as I’ve often said, 'Price is what you pay, value is what you get.' At a P/E of 58 and a price-to-book over 50, you’re paying a very steep price for future growth. This is a classic case where the business is excellent, but the stock may be ahead of itself. If growth slows even a little, the stock could face a sharp correction. I generally avoid technology companies outside my circle of competence, but NVIDIA’s dominance in AI chips gives it a real, though possibly temporary, moat. For investors with a high risk tolerance and a long-term horizon, it may be worth a small position, but I would insist on a significant margin of safety. My target price is based on a discounted cash flow approach, assuming continued strong growth but building in a 25% margin of safety. The 12-month target price range is $650 (conservative) to $800 (reasonable), with $900 as an optimistic scenario if growth persists. At current prices, caution is warranted—sometimes the best thing to do is wait for a better pitch. AI Peter Lynch: When you look at NVIDIA, you’re staring at a company that’s firing on all cylinders—profitability, growth, and financial health are all top-notch. I mean, a 115% ROE and net margins over 50%? That’s the kind of stuff you dream about as an investor. Revenue is up nearly 70% year-over-year, and earnings are still growing at a healthy clip. The balance sheet is rock solid, with a current ratio of 3.46 and manageable debt. If you’re looking for a company with a great story, just look around: AI, gaming, data centers—NVIDIA’s chips are everywhere, and if my kids are talking about it, you know it’s mainstream. But here’s the rub: the valuation is sky-high. A P/E of 58, P/B over 50, and P/S close to 30? That’s a lot of future growth baked into the price. The PEG ratio is well above 1, so you’re not getting a bargain here. This isn’t the kind of stock you buy for a quick double; you’re betting on NVIDIA becoming even more dominant in the years ahead. The technicals are still bullish, but momentum is cooling off, and the social buzz is pretty quiet—maybe folks are waiting to see if the next earnings report justifies the price. So, is this a ten-bagger from here? Probably not, given the current valuation. But if you’re a growth investor with a strong stomach for volatility, NVIDIA’s fundamentals make it a compelling long-term hold. Just don’t expect a smooth ride, and be ready for some bumps if the market decides the price is too rich. Target Price Logic: With a forward EPS estimate of around $20 and a more reasonable growth-adjusted P/E of 40 (still a premium, but justified by leadership in AI and data centers), the 12-month target price comes to about $800. That’s factoring in continued strong growth, but not assuming another explosive year like the last one. If growth slows or the market re-rates tech stocks, downside risk is real. AI Cathie Wood: NVIDIA is the quintessential example of a company at the forefront of disruptive innovation, driving the AI revolution and transforming industries from data centers to autonomous vehicles. Its GPU and AI accelerator technologies are not only powering exponential growth in cloud computing and generative AI, but also expanding the total addressable market (TAM) into trillion-dollar territory as enterprises and governments race to adopt AI infrastructure. The company's fundamentals are outstanding: ROE at 115.5%, net margin at 51.7%, and revenue growth of 69.2% YoY signal a rare combination of profitability and hypergrowth. NVIDIA's R&D intensity and relentless innovation pipeline have created a technological moat that is widening as AI adoption accelerates globally. Over a 5-10 year horizon, we see NVIDIA capturing a disproportionate share of the expanding AI and accelerated computing markets, with potential for TAM expansion as new applications emerge. However, the current valuation is extremely rich (P/E 58, P/S 29.5), reflecting high expectations and introducing volatility risk if growth decelerates. While short-term technicals and muted sentiment suggest caution, the long-term exponential growth trajectory remains intact. Our 12-month target price is derived from a forward EV/Revenue multiple of 30x on projected FY2026 revenues, reflecting continued AI adoption and market leadership, but we emphasize the need for risk management given the premium pricing.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by y2kmz
1