$TSLA - Bullish Flag Setup $510A Bullish Flag is setting up nicely on TSLA. If price breaks out of the flag, a measured move equaling the pole length would put its price objective roughly between $500-510.
TSLA trade ideas
Is this bullish enough for you? If elon is buying, I am buying. If he is gonna get trillion, I want my pie too. Help each other.
Not a trading analysis, just a fan.
Tesla (TSLA) BUYTesla (TSLA) is best known for electric cars, but its future depends on AI. From self-driving vehicles to its Optimus humanoid robot, Tesla is an AI-first company disguised as an automaker.
TSLA: Mild Pullback but Uptrend Remains IntactHello everyone,
Tesla’s share price (TSLA) slipped slightly today, closing at 416.66 USD, down 5.78 USD or 1.37% compared to the previous session’s high. After a strong rally earlier, the market is now watching closely to see whether Tesla can sustain its upward momentum or enter a deeper correction.
The main driver of this dip has been profit-taking after the stock approached the 430 USD level, creating selling pressure. Alongside this, Tesla’s prior upward moves have left several Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), which may serve as support zones if price revisits them, helping traders identify potential entry levels. In addition, trading volume has picked up significantly in recent sessions, showing strong inflows and active participation from major investors.
Looking ahead, despite the current mild pullback, Tesla shares are expected to extend their uptrend if they can hold above the 416 USD support. This is a crucial threshold—if it holds, price could revisit 430 USD and potentially move toward 440 USD in upcoming sessions.
The reasoning lies in the sustained capital inflows, the supportive role of FVG zones, and the Ichimoku cloud structure, which continues to back the bullish trend as long as price stays above it.
So, what’s your view? Will Tesla keep pushing higher toward 430–440 USD, or is a deeper retracement likely?
Tesla on Track – Golden Zone Respect Leading to $867 TargetAs we discussed in the earlier setup, Tesla retraced beautifully into the golden zone (62–79% retracement area) after sweeping sell-side liquidity. This zone aligned with a higher-timeframe order block, providing strong confluence for a bullish reaction.
The price has since respected that golden zone, confirming buyers stepped in aggressively and validating the bullish bias. From here, the market structure points toward continuation to the upside, with immediate targets at prior buy-side liquidity pools, eventually extending toward the $867 region, a level that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection and liquidity resting above previous highs.
This setup illustrates a textbook ICT/SMC play:
Liquidity Sweep ✅
Golden Zone Respect ✅
Strong Bullish Reaction ✅
Clear Buy-side Targets Ahead ✅
If momentum holds, Tesla remains positioned for a multi-month expansion leg toward the $867 target zone.
⚠️ DYOR: Not financial advice. Always confirm setups with your own framework and risk management.
Ok TSLA.... holding or pullback?TSLA rocked & today it printed a dark cloud candle. Pullback perhaps?
Tesla typically can rally when things look bleak for the rest of the market. However, after that billion dollar move up, maybe we have a pull back before earnings. Or will we range?
<420/420 maybe retest the gap?
That's what I'm looking for.
TSLA Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) LONG When TSLA breaks above 350 and closes, the price will launch to $390 very quickly.
A VCP is a technical pattern, showing lessening declines in a range bound formation. A bull flag showing higher-lows is the best, as seen with TSLA.
Volatility is going to breakout sharply to the upside. If you TSLA above 350 just buy and hold, you’re too late trying to get a better deal.
🚀🚀🚀🌖
TSLA path to 550/650 USD Breakout Still Pending🔥 What specifically drives TSLA into 550–650
📦 Deliveries + mix surprise
If unit volumes beat whisper numbers and mix favors higher-trim/FSD attach, you get more gross profit per vehicle without needing price hikes. Watch the cadence of regional incentives and shipping vectors; strong NA/EU mix plus improving China utilization is the sweet spot.
🛠️ Margin stabilization → operating leverage
Gross margin base effect + opex discipline = powerful flow-through. Even a 100–150 bps lift in auto GM, coupled with energy GM expanding as Megapack scales, can push operating margin into low-mid teens. That alone recodes the multiple market is willing to pay.
🔋 Energy storage stepping out of auto’s shadow
Megapack/Powerwall growth with multi-GW backlogs turns “side business” into a credible second engine. As deployments and ASP/contract mix normalize, investors begin modeling $10–$15B annualized energy revenue with attractive GM — this is multiple-expanding because it looks more like infrastructure/software-tinted industrials than cyclical autos.
🤖 Autonomy & software monetization bridges
Two things move the needle fast: (1) clear progress toward supervised autonomy at scale (drives FSD attach + ARPU), and (2) licensing (FSD stack, charging/NACS, drive units). Even modestly credible paid-miles/seat-based models (think $50–$150/month vehicles on fleet) transform valuation frameworks.
🦾 Optimus/robotics as a real option, not sci-fi
The market doesn’t need commercial ubiquity — it needs line-of-sight to pilot deployments and unit economics where labor-substitute ROI < 3 years. A few high-credibility pilots (warehousing, simple assembly, logistics cells) can tack on optionality premium that pushes the multiple toward the top of the range.
💹 Options-market reflexivity
Flows matter. Elevated call demand near ATH turns dealers short gamma, forcing delta hedging that lifts spot, which triggers more call buying → a familiar feedback loop. On breakouts, watch open interest skew to short-dated OTM calls, and put-call ratios compressing; these magnify upside in a tight float day.
🌍 Macro & liquidity
If indices hold highs and the rate path doesn’t tighten financial conditions, growth duration gets rewarded. TSLA’s beta + story premium thrives in that regime.
________________________________________
🧠 Outside-the-box accelerants
🛰️ “Software day” packaging
A coordinated showcase that bundles FSD progress, energy software (fleet, VPP), service/insurance data, and Optimus pilots into a single capital-markets narrative could reframe TSLA as a platform. The Street responds to packaging; it compresses time-to-belief.
🤝 Third-party FSD/charging licensing headlines
A single blue-chip OEM announcing software licensing + NACS deep integration reframes the competitive landscape. The equity market pays a software multiple for recurring seats.
🏗️ Capex signaling for next-gen platform without GM hit
Announcing a modular, high-throughput manufacturing scheme (cell to structure, gigacasting tweaks, logistics compression) with proof that unit economics are accretive from ramp can flip skeptics who anchor to past ramp pain.
⚡ Grid-scale contracts + financing innovation
If Tesla pairs utility-scale storage with project-level financing (think repeatable ABS-like channels for Megapack), you de-risk cash conversion cycles and unlock a new investor constituency (infrastructure/green income). That tightens the multiple.
________________________________________
🏎️ Comparative playbook: RACE (Ferrari) & NVDA (NVIDIA)
👑 RACE — the scarcity & brand ROIC lens
Ferrari’s premium multiple rests on scarcity, orderbook visibility, and brand pricing power. TSLA doesn’t have scarcity, but it can borrow the RACE lens via (a) limited-run, ultra-high-margin trims that anchor halo pricing, (b) waitlist-like energy backlogs that create visibility, and (c) bespoke software packages that mimic “personalization” margin. In bull phases, RACE trades as a luxury compounder rather than an automaker; TSLA can earn a slice of that premium when the energy + software story dominates.
🧮 NVDA — the flywheel & supply-constrained S-curve
NVIDIA’s explosive run blended (1) clear demand > supply, (2) pricing power, (3) ecosystem lock-in. TSLA’s battery and compute stacks can echo that dynamic: limited 4680/cell supply + Megapack queues + proprietary autonomy data moat. The moment the market believes TSLA is supply-gated (not demand-gated) in energy/AI, it will award NVDA-like scarcity premia. Add toolchain stickiness (training data, fleet miles, Dojo/AI infra), and you get ecosystem multiples rather than auto multiples.
📊 What the comps teach for TSLA’s 550–650 zone
• RACE lesson: visibility + pricing power boost the quality of earnings → higher P/E durability.
• NVDA lesson: credible scarcity + platform control turbocharge EV/Sales and compress the market’s time-to-future state.
• Translation for TSLA: blend of luxury-like quality (energy contracts + premium trims) and platform scarcity (cells/AI stack) → multiple rerate into our target band.
________________________________________
🧾 Valuation outlook
🧮 Earnings path
• Units up mid-teens % Y/Y; ASP stable to slightly higher on mix; energy + software up strongly.
• Auto GM +100–150 bps; Energy GM expands on scale; opex +SMC disciplined → op margin 12–15%.
• Share count glide modest. Forward EPS ≈ $9–$11.
• Multiple: 50× (conservative growth premium) → $450–$550; 60× (software/autonomy visibility) → $540–$660.
• Why the market pays up: visible recurring high-margin lines (FSD, energy software, services) + AI/robotics optionality.
📈 EV/Sales path
• Forward revenue $130–$150B (auto + energy + software/services).
• Assign blended EV/Sales 6.5–7.5× when energy/software dominate the debate.
• Less net cash → equity value per share in $550–$650.
• Check: At 7× on $140B = $980B EV; equity ≈ $1.0–$1.1T with cash, divided by diluted shares → mid-$500s to $600s. Momentum premium and flow can extend to upper bound.
________________________________________
🧭 Technical roadmap & market-microstructure
🧱 Breakout mechanics
A decisive weekly close above prior ATH with rising volume and a low-volume retest that holds converts resistance to a springboard. Expect a “open-drive → pause → trend” sequence: day 1 impulse, 2–5 sessions of rangebuilding, then trend resumption.
🧲 Volume shelves & AWVAPs
Anchored VWAPs from the last major swing high and the post-washout low often act like magnets. Post-break, the ATH AVWAP becomes first support, then the $500 handle functions as the psychological pivot. Above there, $550/$590/$630 are classical measured-move/Fib projection waypoints; pullbacks should hold prior shelf highs.
🌀 Options & dealer positioning
On a break, short-dated OTM calls populate 1–2% ladders; dealers short gamma chase price up via delta hedging. Expect intraday ramps near strikes (pin-and-pop behavior) and Friday accelerants if sentiment is euphoric. A steepening skew with heavy call open interest is your tell that supply is thin.
________________________________________
🧨 Risks & invalidation
🚫 Failed retest below the breakout shelf (think: a fast round-trip under the $4-handle) downgrades the setup from “trend” to “blow-off.”
🧯 Margin or delivery disappointments (e.g., price-war resumption, regional softness) break the EPS/EV-Sales bridges.
🌪️ Macro shock (rates spike, liquidity drains) compresses long-duration multiples first; TSLA is high beta.
🔁 Flow reversal — if call-heavy positioning unwinds, gamma flips to a headwind and accelerates downside.
________________________________________
💼 Trading & portfolio expressions for HNWI
🎯 Core + satellite
Hold a core equity position to capture trend, add a satellite of calls for convexity. If chasing, consider call spreads (e.g., 1–3 month $500/$600 or $520/$650) to tame IV.
🛡️ Risk-managed parity
Pair equity with a protective put slightly OTM or finance it with a put spread. Alternatively, collars (write covered calls above $650 to fund downside puts) if you’re guarding a large legacy stake.
⚙️ Momentum follow-through
Use stop-ins above key levels for systematic adds, and stop-outs below retest lows to avoid round-trips. Size reduces into $590–$630 where target confluence lives; recycle risk into pullbacks.
💵 Liquidity & slippage
Scale entries around liquid times (open/closing auctions). For size, work algos to avoid prints into obvious strikes where dealers can lean.
________________________________________
🧾 Monitoring checklist
🔭 Delivery run-rate signals (regional registration proxies, shipping cadence).
🏭 Margin tells (bill of materials trends, promotions cadence, energy deployment updates).
🧠 Autonomy milestones (software releases, safety metrics, attach/ARPU hints).
🔌 Licensing/partnership beats (NACS depth, FSD/AI stack interest).
📊 Options dashboard (short-dated call OI ladders; put-call ratio shifts; gamma positioning).
🌡️ Macro regime (rates, liquidity, risk appetite).
________________________________________
✅ Bottom line
🏁 The 550–650 tape is not a fairy tale — it’s a stacked-catalyst + rerate setup where energy/software/autonomy rise in the narrative mix, margins stabilize, and options-market reflexivity does the rest. Execute the breakout playbook, respect invalidation lines, and use convex expressions to lean into upside while protecting capital.
esla (TSLA) — Breakout Playbook
🎯 Core Thesis
• Insider conviction: Musk’s ~$1B buy.
• Risk-on macro: equities at highs, liquidity supportive.
• Options reflexivity: call-heavy flows can fuel upside.
• ATH breakout (~$480–$490) = gateway to price discovery.
________________________________________
🚀 Upside Drivers to $550–$650
• Deliveries & Mix: Surprise beat + higher trim/FSD attach.
• Margins: GM stabilization + energy scaling → op margin 12–15%.
• Energy: $10–15B rev potential with infra-like multiples.
• Autonomy/Software: FSD attach, ARPU, licensing.
• Optimus/Robotics: Pilot deployments → ROI < 3 yrs adds optionality.
• Licensing Headlines: OEMs adopting NACS/FSD stack.
• Capital Markets Narrative: Packaged “software + energy + robotics” story reframes Tesla as a platform.
________________________________________
🏎️ Comparative Bull Run Lens
• Ferrari (RACE): Scarcity, orderbook, luxury multiples.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Scarcity + ecosystem flywheel → EV/Sales premium.
• Tesla Parallel: Blend of luxury quality (energy backlogs, halo trims) + AI scarcity (cells, fleet data, Dojo).
________________________________________
📊 Valuation Bridges
• EPS Path: $9–$11 EPS × 50–60× = $450–$660.
• EV/Sales Path: $130–150B revenue × 6.5–7.5× = $550–$650.
________________________________________
📈 Technical Roadmap
• Breakout > $490 → retest holds → next legs:
o $550 / $590 / $630 / stretch $650–$690.
• Watch anchored VWAPs; ATH shelf flips to support.
• Options chase accelerates above round strikes.
TSLA Breakout Watch for Sept 18 – Bulls Testing Key Supply LevelHere’s my fresh read on Tesla heading into Wednesday’s session
1️⃣ Market Structure & Price Action
* Clean breakout attempt: TSLA pierced the descending trendline drawn from last week’s highs and closed around $429, holding above the 9 EMA and reclaiming short-term momentum.
* Support shelf: $421–422 zone (prior supply) flipped to support. This is the first line of defense on any early dip.
* Upside pivot: Price is grinding along an ascending intraday trendline that points toward the $435–440 area if momentum keeps up.
2️⃣ GEX (Options Flow) Insight
* Call dominance: Call flow is heavy with ~90% call premium, IVR ~19.6 (low), and IVx ~65.3 (normalizing).
* Big call walls: $432.5 and $436 show strong gamma with 67%+ call concentration, which can attract price if bulls stay in charge.
* Put defense: Major put support sits at $412–417.5. A break below $412 would flip sentiment and invite a fast move to $400.
3️⃣ Trade Thoughts
* Bullish swing / scalp: Buy pullbacks into $423–426 with a stop under $421. Targets $435, stretch $440+.
* Bearish fade: Only if TSLA loses $421 and the hourly closes below it. First target $409, extended $400.
4️⃣ Option Angle
* With call interest stacked and IV still moderate, short-dated call spreads or debit spreads around $430/$440 look attractive for a measured upside shot.
* Aggressive traders could sell puts below $410 for premium, but that’s only if you’re comfortable owning shares on a breakdown.
5️⃣ Personal Take
I like the constructive action. Tesla cleared a multi-day squeeze and is running with the broader tech bid. As long as $421 holds, the path of least resistance is up. I’m watching volume on any morning retest—if buyers show up, I’ll lean long.
Disclaimer: This commentary is for educational discussion only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
My Journey to Building the Adaptive Opening EdgeMy Journey to Building the Adaptive Opening Edge
Like many of you aspiring traders, I was once chasing shortcuts.
I wanted to get rich quick, to find the easiest way out.
Over 10 years ago, I first learned about trading through my mom. I got curious, started exploring, and went on a hunt for the “holy grail.” The history is always the same — I blew up account after account before I finally turned profitable.
The Missing Puzzle
I realized the key wasn’t some secret indicator or magic formula. It was me.
I needed to work on my fundamentals, my psychology, and my discipline.
At the same time, I felt there was a gap in the market — no tool truly fit the trading philosophy I was developing. I wasn’t looking for certainty; I wanted a way to stack probabilities and build expectancy.
Building the Signal
So I invested in myself.
📚 I spent hours in libraries.
💻 I learned coding and logic.
🧩 I started piecing together the type of tool I wished existed.
That’s how the Adaptive Opening Edge was born.
It wasn’t about predicting the future. It was about building a system that:
Risks a fixed % per trade
Avoids overnight risk entirely
Is robust (not overfit, not curve-fitted)
Focuses on expectancy, not win rate
From Testing to Trading
I backtested, forward tested, and finally went live.
I fine-tuned the code, but never broke its logic to “force” more wins. I needed it to be durable — able to handle randomness without collapsing.
For the first time in my trading career, I saw an equity curve I could trust.
The Real Breakthrough
The breakthrough wasn’t just the signal.
It was the combination of:
A robust tool (Adaptive Opening Edge)
The discipline to follow rules without deviation
The patience to let the law of large numbers play out
Trading stopped being about outcome.
It became about process.
Losses stopped hurting — they were just part of the data. Wins stopped exciting me — they were simply the advance payments of my expectancy.
Where I Am Today
I no longer chase predictions.
I don’t need the holy grail.
I’ve built a signal that reflects the way I believe trading should be:
Probability-driven
Rules-based
Consistent over the long run
That’s why I share my trades live on YouTube — every entry, every stop, every exit, no filters.
Final Note
The Adaptive Opening Edge isn’t about being right 100% of the time.
It’s about playing the same game the casinos play — exploiting a small, consistent edge over hundreds of hands.
If you want to learn more about the signal, buzz me.
HOW MUCH HIGHER CAN TESLA GO? (September 17, 2025)Since my last video Tesla stock is up over 25% in the past week and we are breaking a very key Fibonacci levels.
In this video, we look at a higher timeframe charts to determine if Tesla can keep pushing towards $600 and $1000 in the coming months ahead given how much it is outperforming everything else in the stock market
Bullish pennant pattern! This is what I'm looking at on the 2hr chart! It has finally broken out of this bullish pennant that was formed Monday, my price target now is somewhere 478/480 in the next few days! Will see ... this is NOT financial advice! Just sharing my personal analysis! That's all, Thanks!
Tesla - Technicals are pretty clear!🚨Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) respects the triangle:
🔎Analysis summary:
Ever since Tesla was listed on the Nasdaq, we saw perfect cycles playing out. Since 2021, Tesla has once again been consolidating within a bullish triangle pattern. Therefore with the recent bullish break and retest, it becomes more and more likely that Tesla will break out soon.
📝Levels to watch:
$400, $250
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Every counter has a sweet spot. Every counter has a sweet spot. The only question: are you trading it at the right time?
Most traders obsess over what to trade, but few stop to ask when to trade it.
Timing is the difference between a setup that compounds consistently… and one that bleeds capital.
That’s exactly why I built thenexxtradealpha — Adaptive Opening Framework.
It’s designed to identify the optimal timeframe for any counter, so you’re not second-guessing whether you should be looking at the 5-minute, 15-minute, or daily chart.
The framework adapts to the counter itself — helping you trade in alignment with its natural rhythm, not against it.
Because once you know the right time, you stop forcing trades…
And start trading with precision.
TSLA: Pausing at Key Zone – Swing & Scalp Setups for Sept 171-Hour Chart Technical View
Tesla’s rally from sub-$350 to the $420 area is now consolidating. After an explosive breakout on Sept 12–13, the 1-hour candles are moving sideways in a tight $410–$430 box. MACD has cooled from overbought and is starting to curl back up, while Stoch RSI is hovering in a neutral zone—showing that momentum is recharging, not reversing.
* Immediate Support: $410 (critical breakout retest)
* Major Support: $344 (key demand and high-volume node)
* Near-Term Resistance: $430–$440 (current supply zone)
* Upside Magnet: $450 and $484 if $440 clears with volume
EMA alignment (9 above 21) still favors the bulls, and price continues to respect the uptrend line from the early September pivot.
GEX & Options Flow
Options data underline strong bullish hedging pressure:
* Call Walls: $430 (2nd call wall), $440 (highest positive NET GEX / gamma resistance), $450 next target.
* Put Walls: $407.5 (1st defense), then $385 and $322.5.
* GEX Bias: Calls dominate with 92.8% call-weighted exposure. IVR at 20.1 (IVx ~65.9)
suggests decent option premiums but not extreme volatility pricing.
This configuration typically supports dip buying and favors upward grind, provided $410 stays intact.
Trade Thoughts & Suggestions
* Swing Idea: Accumulation on 1-hour closes above $410 with a stop below $400, aiming for $440–$450, and possibly $484 on continuation.
* Scalp Idea: Intraday traders can fade extremes inside the $410–$430 range, or take a momentum scalp if $430 breaks on strong volume.
* Bearish Scenario: A decisive break under $400 could unwind gamma support and invite a test of $385 and $344.
Quick Take
TSLA is digesting sharp gains in a healthy range. Strong call gamma at $430–$440 is both a near-term lid and a potential springboard. For Sept 17, look for continuation plays if $430 is taken out with conviction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
#TSLA Analysis, Elon breaks the Key level ^.^^Elon pours Big Money $$$ into TSLA stock recently causing Rally!
Price has gone up significantly, I don't think it will drop below $400 any time soon.
Strong Greenbar breaks out from the wedge with large volume increases.
Short sellers are getting squeeze out.
More investors are coming to catch smokey train.
Price Target next $480.
Come and join the Rally.
TSLA breaking out a rangeI think TSLA is moving up
The 1D timeframe show us how it was on a range and a few days ago started to go up
Next lvl should be 450, but also can go to 480
What do you think?
Bullish or bearish?
Do you see the bull flag?
Also the size and shape of candles remember me to a bullish movement.
When you see candlesticks all the day, everyday, you can see a pattern!
Lol
I am bullish on TSLAI have not changed my buy bias for this baby.
II will continue adding TSLA to my portfolio with $360 and $400 as my medium-term take profits.
Share your thought.
If you found this helpful, like, follow and share
Tesla’s Breakout Test: Impulse or Fakeout?Tesla’s recent price action is stirring interest again, not just for retail traders but also for chart technicians who track Elliott Wave structures across global equities.
After a deep corrective phase that carried price down from 488.54 to 217.02 , Tesla has been carving out a multi-layered corrective structure. Here’s the breakdown:
Wave W completed into 217.02 , marking a sharp low.
This was followed by a complex X wave , which included an expanded flat where the B-wave unfolded as a triangle — a rare but valid corrective formation.
Wave Y then ended with a contracting triangle, neatly completing the W–X–Y correction near 297.82 .
From that point, Tesla appears to have begun an impulsive sequence:
Wave 1 and 2 are already visible, with the 297.82 low as the key invalidation level.
A decisive break and close above 367.71 would confirm the onset of Wave 3, targeting 397.38 (1.618× Wave 1).
Momentum is supporting the structure: RSI has reclaimed the 50 level, hinting at renewed strength.
What Next?
If the count holds, Tesla could be in the early stages of a larger impulsive rally, with Wave 1/A projecting toward the 400–420 zone . However, traders should remember that breaking below 297.82 invalidates the impulsive outlook and revives the broader corrective scenario.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
Tesla breakout set up 2 potential moves for Tesla on 15 min chart should happen around the retail data release in the US.
Yes, Elon Musk Buys $1 billion of Tesla Stock - $TSLAYes, Elon Musk bought approximately $1 billion worth of Tesla stock on September 15, 2025. We had a nice Fib retracement buy zone on this one around $214-$235 levels. We got in late ourselves and got in at $340. As a value play, this stock still trades at premium valuations, hovering near $410 per share with a trailing P/E above 200x—far higher than both traditional automakers and most growth tech peers.
Risks remain significant. Competition from Chinese rivals, ongoing price cuts that pressure vehicle margins, and regulatory challenges in key markets raise questions about how sustainable current profitability will be. For trading purposes, I would never short the stock, but buy oversold dips and swing trade it.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on here, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Feel free to give us a follow and shoot us a like for more analysis updates.
Tesla (TSLA) Stock Price Rises Above $400Tesla (TSLA) Stock Price Rises Above $400
As the chart shows, Tesla (TSLA) stocks are displaying strong market momentum. In particular, the price:
→ is above the psychological level of $400;
→ has reached its highest levels since late January;
→ has gained around 25% since the beginning of September.
Why Is TSLA Rising?
The main news driving the price surge was a media report that Elon Musk had purchased $1 billion worth of Tesla stock. The market interpreted this as commitment and confidence in the company’s future from its founder, which sharply increased demand for the shares.
Other factors contributing to TSLA’s rise include:
→ Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut to stimulate the economy. This makes growth stocks such as Tesla more attractive to investors.
→ Reduced tensions between Elon Musk and President Trump’s administration. This removes some of the political risks that had weighed on the stock.
Technical Analysis of TSLA Stock
In our August analysis of the TSLA chart, we:
→ noted that the price had broken through the upper boundary of a broad contracting triangle with its axis around $317;
→ suggested that a correction might follow after the rally in early August.
Since then:
→ the price made a minor pullback before reversing upwards (as shown by the arrow);
→ the bullish trend resumed, providing anchor points to construct a rising (blue) channel.
Thus, the chart confirms:
→ a shift in sentiment in favour of buyers;
→ an improving fundamental backdrop (as highlighted in the news) and growth prospects linked to robotaxis and other innovations.
From a bullish perspective, the breakout of $355 followed by accelerated growth points to strong demand.
From a bearish perspective:
→ the RSI indicator has spiked into overbought territory;
→ the price is near the upper boundary of the rising channel;
→ the seven-month high could prompt profit-taking by investors – already reflected in yesterday’s pullback.
Taking this into account, we could assume that while the long-term outlook remains optimistic, a correction is possible, for example:
→ towards the 50% retracement level of the A→B impulse;
→ into the price expansion zone (a bullish imbalance signal, as described by the Fair Value Gap pattern in the Smart Money Concept methodology).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
TSLA 1H + GEX Game Plan for Tue, Sep 16TSLA Cooling After a Monster Run — Will 410 Hold or Is 430 Next? ⚡️
Market Structure (1-Hour View)
* Sharp run-up: TSLA ripped from mid-300s to a peak around 430 and is now consolidating in a broad rising channel.
* Trend support: Current pullback is testing a rising channel floor near 405–410.
* Momentum: MACD still in a bearish cross with fading histogram; Stoch RSI is climbing out of oversold — early sign of a potential rebound.
Key Levels to Watch
* Resistance: 410.8 (current pivot), 420.0–422.0, and 430.4 (recent high / gamma wall).
* Support: 402.2, 395.9, then deeper supports near 346.1 and 340.0 if momentum collapses.
GEX Read (Sep 16)
* Highest positive NETGEX / Call resistance: 430.4
* 2nd Call Wall: ~420–422 area.
* HVL / gamma pivot: 356–357.
* Put walls: 320 and 305.
* Options sentiment: Calls >100% (very call-heavy), IVR ~20, IVx ~65.9 — big bullish skew but with elevated implied volatility.
Implication:
* Dealers may keep TSLA pinned around 400–420 for balance.
* A strong reclaim of >420 with volume invites a retest of 430.4 and possibly higher.
* Lose 402 and a slide to 395–390 is possible.
Trade Scenarios
1) Bullish Continuation
* Trigger: 1H close >412–415 with uptick in volume.
* Entry: 414–415 on retest.
* Targets: 420 → 430.4.
* Stop: Below 408.
* Options: 420/430 call debit spread expiring this week.
2) Range Fade
* Trigger: Failure to clear 415 with repeated rejection wicks.
* Entry: 413–414 short.
* Targets: 402 → 395.9.
* Stop: Above 417.
* Options: 410P or 415/402 put spread for quick fade.
3) Deeper Pullback
* Trigger: Clear 1H break <402 with retest fail.
* Entry: 401–402 short.
* Targets: 395 → 390, with a stretch toward 356–357 (HVL) if heavy selling accelerates.
* Stop: Back above 406.
Options: 400/390 put spread for a measured pullback.
Scalping & Swing Notes
* First test of 410–412 will set the early tone; quick rejections there can produce a 5–10 point scalp.
* If we gap near 400, watch for a sweep into 395 then bounce back toward 410.
Risk & Management
* Keep sizing conservative: TSLA’s elevated IV means sharp intraday swings.
* Scale out partials at first target and tighten stops if momentum accelerates in your favor.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade with a plan and manage risk carefully.
