DXY Breakout Trade Setup – Bullish Channel & High R:R OpportunitChart Overview:
Instrument: U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY)
Timeframe: 1 Hour (1H)
Current Price: 98.371
Analysis Date: September 26, 2025
🔍 Technical Structure:
1. Bullish Channel:
A clear ascending channel is drawn, indicating a strong short-term uptrend.
Price action has been respecting the channel well, moving between the upper and lower trendlines.
A bullish breakout is either anticipated or just confirmed above the channel.
🟦 Trade Setup (Long Position):
✅ Entry Point:
Price: 98.267 (blue horizontal line labeled "Entry Point")
This is slightly below the current price (98.371), suggesting an entry on a slight pullback after breakout.
🛑 Stop Loss:
Price: 97.986 (also marked 97.982 on the lower blue line)
Located below a recent support zone and below the breakout structure.
This gives a safety buffer if the breakout fails.
🎯 Target Point (Take Profit):
Price: 99.676
This is based on the measured move from the height of the channel, projected upward from the breakout point.
📐 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
Very favorable; visually it appears to be around 4:1 or higher.
Small stop loss area (red box) relative to the large target area (green box).
High RRR makes this setup attractive for risk-managed traders.
🔎 Additional Observations:
Trend: Strong bullish momentum leading into the breakout.
Volume / Confirmation: Not shown on the chart, but ideally you’d want volume confirmation for the breakout.
Timing: Entry and confirmation should align with break and retest of the channel top.
✅ Summary of the Trade Plan:
Component Value
Entry 98.267
Stop Loss 97.986
Take Profit 99.676
Risk-Reward ~4:1
Trade Type Long (Buy)
Strategy Breakout + Retest
⚠️ Important Notes:
Wait for confirmation (like a bullish candle close above the channel or successful retest).
Be aware of macroeconomic news that can affect DXY (e.g., Fed announcements, interest rate decisions, inflation data).
Use position sizing appropriate to your risk tolerance.
Trade ideas
DOLLAR REBOUND TO TAKE PROFIT ZONE DOLLAR ,the united states dollar remains a key driver for EURUSD,AUUSD,GBPUSD,USDJPY,XAUUSD,BITCOIN SILVER ,COPPER,when i shared a perspective on the rebound we started seeing a sharp drop in weekly gains of EUR,GBP,GOLD ,SILVER AUD ,CAD, ZAR.
IF THE DXY REBOUND FINALLY REACH TAKE PROFIT ZONE ,OTHER PERS TRADING AGAINST THE DOLLAR WILL STRUGGLE.
#DOLLAR #DXY #US10Y
DXY Daily Timeframe – Technical & Fundamental AnalysisDXY Daily Timeframe – Technical & Fundamental Analysis
Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy continues to print strong economic data, which typically supports the dollar. However, the DXY has failed to create new highs and is currently sitting below key resistance. This suggests that much of the positive data is already priced in. With buying momentum slowing, there is an increasing probability that traders will begin taking profits — potentially triggering a sell-off.
Technicals:
After a liquidity hunt/manipulation above previous highs, price broke below a key level, confirming a Change of Character (CHoCH).
Post-breakout, price accumulated sell positions under the key level and was driven lower, reaching as far as 95.900.
A pullback followed, with price retesting the minor key resistance at 98.300, but failing to break higher.
We are now watching closely for a liquidity grab within the 98.300–98.880 liquidity zone.
📌 Trading Plan (DTF Bias – Bearish):
Point of Interest (POI): 97.950
Stop Loss (SL): 98.880 (above liquidity zone)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 95.800
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 95.100
📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage your risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
US Dollar: Hold Off On Selling The USD! Higher Prices Ahead?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 22 - 26th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD recovered last Friday after the FED cut the rate .25 basis points. The USD was also supported by higher T-note yields.
What's next?
Although price swept the Swing Low last week, it recovered, trading back up into the consolidation. There is a bullish tone to this movement, and a manipulative one as well. The sell side LQ was taken, followed by a quick recovery.
The highlighted bullish FVG indicates bullish order flow.
There is a potential iFVG just above the +FVG. Monitor it to see if price will respect it as support. Should it hold, look to long the USD.
Wait and react. Do not predict.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
USD Sell the Rumor, Buy the NewsUSD set a fresh three-year low on the Fed's rate cut announcement last week. Since then, however, bears have taken a back seat and bulls have chewed through several short-term resistance levels. This highlights just how one-sided that move was in the earlier part of the year and for q3, it's been a build into a falling wedge formation which is often approached with aim of bullish reversal.
This sets the stage for a test of the 99 level, which is confluent with both a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021-2022 major move - and the resistance side of that formation.
Notably, this resembles last year's move, when the USD set a fresh low on the Fed's first rate cut announcement of the year only for bears to be stalled thereafter. It wasn't until Q4 that USD bulls were able to take over but when they were - they drove an aggressive move into the end of the year.
In that scenario, there was also a similar move in Treasury yields as rates jumped even as the Fed was cutting overnight rates - and the rationale behind that was that a Fed cutting into a high inflation backdrop simply boosted long-run inflation expectations, which further erodes fixed yields. That can drive capital from bonds and possibly even into stocks, but more importantly for traders, that's what helped to boost the Greenback in Q4 of last year even as the Fed was cutting. - js
DXY at a Critical Juncture — What’s the Fed’s Next MoveHey Guys,
I’ve put together a swing-style analysis for the DXY.
This one’s been highly requested — my followers are valuable to me, and I never turn them down.
DXY Daily Levels:
- Resistance: 100.606 – 99.837
- Support: 96.530 – 95.902
From a fundamental perspective, the U.S. Dollar Index is currently dropping due to Fed policies.
No steps are being taken to push the dollar higher.
Because of this, investors are choosing gold as a safe haven instead of buying dollars.
Gold keeps hitting new ATHs, and naturally, the dollar index is sliding.
Unless the Fed takes action to support the dollar, this decline will continue.
In short, the drop in the dollar is entirely due to the policies implemented by the Fed Chair.
Remember — DXY isn’t heavily influenced by technical analysis; it’s driven by Fed policy.
That said, since the index has fallen so much, I believe we might see some steps taken in the coming months to lift the dollar.
I’ll be sharing updates right here.📢
Once support or resistance levels are broken, I’ll post new insights immediately.
Every like from you is my biggest motivation to keep sharing these analyses.
Thanks to all my friends who support me — you’re the best. ❤️
Powell Flags Rich Valuations as Dollar Holds the High GroundOur plan from last month is unfolding: weekly liquidity pockets around 97–98 on the DXY have now been tapped, with first profit targets reached on several cross pairs.
Technically, we see:
EUR/USD divergence – euro pushed into absorption while the dollar closed higher.
Heavy weekly liquidity – price action continues to respect the upper band near 98.
From the macro side, Fed Chair Jerome Powell added a quiet but important layer.
In his latest speech, he noted that U.S. equities appear “fairly highly valued,” a gentle reminder that financial conditions matter and valuations are stretched.
He balanced that with a steady-hand message on policy, but the hint was clear: risk assets are not priced for perfection.
MIXED SIGNALS ON THE DOLLAR INDEXThe dollar index has beautifully retraced 100% of a bearish Butterfly pattern that was identified between July 1st and August 13th 2025, hitting the monthly support target of 95.911. There has been a strong bounce from this support zone into the weekly closing range.
What we currently have now is also a bullish Butterfly pattern on the daily chart and the bounce from the support zone has retraced to exactly the 0.382 fib level (97.336). The weekly hammer candle suggests that bulls will attempt to reach the 0.5 fib level, however lower time frames shows that the bulls are losing their strength. As such, I am not expecting DXY to continue grinding up next week without a major pullback to retest the weekly candle wicks. Basically expecting a lot of volatility in both directions.
I thank you for checking out my publication and I wish you a successful trading week. Cheers!!
DXY Is it finally time for the Dollar to shine?The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Up since the March 2008 bottom during the U.S. Housing Crisis. This pattern has been showing incredible symmetry, having clear correction phases (red Channels) followed by bullish phases, where the price rallied to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
Right now the price has almost hit the bottom of this multi-year Channel Up, while at the same time making a new (2nd) bottom for the 2nd Bearish Leg of the (red) correction phase.
With the 1M RSI having already touched its 16-year Support Zone, which has provided the most optimal Buy Signals throughout this pattern, we expect the Dollar Index to start rising aggressively in the long-term, targeting at lest 120.000 on its way to the 1.618 Fib ext.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Dollar short-term BULLISH until proven otherwiseCAPITALCOM:DXY
After a deep liquidity sweep down to ~95.80 followed by a sharp buying response, a string of higher lows, and a higher high into the 97.39–97.78 area. Price is currently pausing just above the shaded Daily BPR.
That sequence (sweep → big rejection → higher low → higher high) is the technical basis for a bullish bias while price stays above the recent higher-low area.
Watching development for now...
Revisit: DXY long-term analysis (Weekly chart), maintain bullishRevisit: DXY long-term analysis (Weekly chart), maintain bullish view on USD that DXY near or already end of the downtrend
Technical perspective
DXY continues to hold above its 14-year ascending trendline, despite a brief dip below it—underscoring the broader uptrend.
The index has yet to make a lower low following an RSI bullish divergence, signaling potential for a bullish reversal. The longer it consolidates above the trendline, the closer the index resumes its uptrend.
A rebound from current levels and a break above 100.00 would establish a higher low—an early reversal signal that could mark the end of the downtrend and potentially accelerate gains toward 105.00.
Overall, this area may mark the bottom of the current DXY bearish trend and could trigger a significant rebound.
However, a break below 95.00 would warrant a reassessment of this view.
Fundamental Perspective:
USD is poised to turn bullish due to the following factors:
The factors that had been weighing on the dollar are fading, paving the way for renewed USD strength. Those factors such as concerning over tariff policy, central-bank independence (as the Fed now began an easing phase), and the concern for large volumes of maturing US Treasuries have been rolled over and has proceeded smoothly.
Europe and the U.K.’s competitiveness has deteriorated due to war and conflict, forcing a shift to higher-cost energy sources that will weigh on the region’s industries over the long term. The region also lacks a powerful new S-curve industry like the US tech sector, including aging societies in many countries pose structural headwinds that erode long-run economic potential.
Early signs of improvement are also emerging in the US trade balance roughly six months after the Trump tariff regime took effect, with a progressively clearer recovery expected.
One counterargument is that a Fed rate-cutting cycle typically weakens the dollar. However, there are several reasons the USD may not depreciate due to Fed dovish cycle from now:
1. Markets have largely priced in Fed cuts; the balance of risks now skews toward hawkish surprises.
2. Trump’s tariff policy may weaken trading partners’ growth and currencies, which in turn supports the USD.
3. Elevated geopolitical and trade uncertainty is boosting the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, drawing inflows even as rates fall—consistent with the dollar’s historical resilience during global stress.
To conclude, USD appears to be in a gradual recovery phase, with a more obvious strengthen likely over the next year.
Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
P.S. Previous analysis:
Dollar Finds Support Ahead of U.S. Data and GDP; SNB Leaves RateDollar Finds Support Ahead of U.S. Data and GDP; SNB Leaves Rates Unchanged
The U.S. dollar stayed strong this week as traders waited for important U.S. jobless claims and GDP numbers that could guide the Federal Reserve’s next decision.
On Thursday morning, the Dollar Index traded near 97.55 after touching a two-week high on Wednesday. The move came after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank faces a “challenging situation” as it tries to balance high inflation with a weak job market.
Key U.S. Data in Focus
Jobless claims due later today are expected to show around 230k, suggesting the labor market is still strong.
GDP figures and PCE inflation data later this week will give more signals about economic strength.
Several Fed officials are also speaking this week, which could move markets.
Analysts say if jobless claims remain low, the dollar could get stronger because it means the Fed may delay more rate cuts.
Europe and Switzerland
In Europe, EUR/USD stayed flat near 1.1738. Analysts warn a fall below 1.1725 could push the pair down toward 1.1660.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its interest rate at zero, stopping a series of seven straight cuts. After the news, USD/CHF edged up to 0.7958.
Asia Updates
USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 148.69 after strong gains the previous day.
BoJ minutes showed some members want to consider raising rates in the future.
AUD/USD rose 0.2% to 0.6592 after Australian inflation came in higher than expected.
Outlook
The dollar remains supported as traders balance U.S. economic strength with Fed policy expectations. For now, the focus is on today’s jobless claims and GDP data, which could set the next move for the dollar.
✍️ By Md Golam Rabbani
Dxy bullish | 98.012The US Dollar Index (DX) appears to be completing its Wave 4 correction within the Elliott Wave structure, signaling a potential bullish reversal. After a period of consolidation and pullback, price action is stabilizing above key Fibonacci support levels, suggesting that the corrective phase may be ending. Technical indicators are starting to shift bullish, with early signs of momentum recovery and possible bullish divergence on lower timeframes. A confirmed breakout above short-term resistance would likely validate the start of Wave 5, targeting a new swing high. Overall, the setup favors a bullish continuation as Wave 5 unfolds, in alignment with the primary uptrend.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Bullish Pullback & Long Setup (2H Char1. Price Action & Structure
The chart shows a bullish channel (red shaded area) where price has been making higher highs and higher lows since around September 18.
Price recently reached the upper trendline of the channel and is now pulling back toward the middle/lower zone.
2. Key Levels
Support Zone: Around 97.575 – 97.257 (blue labels).
This is where the chart suggests a potential buy/long entry.
The gray box marks the area where price is expected to reverse to the upside.
Stop-Loss Level: Slightly below 97.257, around 97.238 (red level).
If price breaks below this, it would invalidate the bullish setup.
Target Point: 98.799 – 98.805
This is the projected move upward, shown with the big arrow.
3. Expected Scenario
The zigzag line indicates that price may dip into the support zone, consolidate, and then bounce back up strongly toward the target point.
This is a long (buy) trade setup with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio since the potential reward is much bigger than the stop loss risk.
4. Risk–Reward Ratio
Risk (downside): Around 0.3 points (from 97.575 entry to 97.238 stop).
Reward (upside): Around 1.2 points (from 97.575 entry to 98.799 target).
That’s roughly 4:1 R:R — a very good trade setup if price respects the support zone.
Summary
✅ Bullish Bias – Price is in an uptrend channel.
📉 Buy Zone: 97.575 – 97.257
📊 Target: 98.799 – 98.805
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 97.238
🎯 Expectation: Short-term dip followed by a strong bullish rally.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Overbought Market & Pullback
Dollar Index is testing a major daily resistance cluster now.
With a high probability, the market will retrace from that.
A double top pattern that was formed on an hourly time frame
indicates a clear overbought state.
The index may drop to 97.65
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXY Bullish Channel Setup with 1:4.5 RRR (Entry 97.50 → Target 9Chart Analysis
Trend:
Price is moving inside a rising parallel channel (marked in red with blue borders).
Currently near the mid-to-upper side of the channel.
Setup Highlighted:
Entry Point: Around 97.50 – 97.52 (support zone).
Stop Loss: Around 97.15 – 97.18 (below support and channel bottom).
Target Point: Around 98.97 – 98.98 (near channel top).
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
Risk: ~0.33 points (97.50 → 97.18).
Reward: ~1.46 points (97.50 → 98.98).
RRR ≈ 1:4.5, which is a strong setup.
Price Action:
The chart suggests a retest of support (97.50 area) before a bullish continuation.
If buyers hold this level, upward momentum could push toward the 98.90–99.00 zone.
Invalidation:
A breakdown below 97.15 would invalidate the long setup and may push price toward 96.80 – 96.50 support levels.
📌 Summary
Bias: Bullish (as long as price holds above 97.15).
Plan: Wait for a pullback to the entry zone (97.50) for confirmation.
Target: 98.90 – 99.00.
Stop Loss: Below 97.15.
Strong RRR trade idea within the bullish channel.
Importance of DXY for all CFD and Futures Assets The 1H DXY chart shows a clear shift in orderflow from bearish to bullish, framed within an auction-theory context where price continuously seeks liquidity to facilitate rebalancing. Early in the week, supply overwhelmed demand, driving the dollar lower into a region of resting liquidity (sell-side liquidity/SSL). This liquidity grab served as the catalyst for demand to reassert itself, evident in the sharp recovery that flipped prior supply zones into demand. The chart highlights a demand flip and multiple demand re-entries, showing how buyers defended levels once liquidity was secured.
Auction-wise, the market auctioned downward until sellers exhausted at a support zone near SSL, where bids were reintroduced. This led to an imbalance that buyers corrected by driving higher, reclaiming inefficiencies (noted in the imbalance box). Subsequent consolidation acted as a re-auctioning phase to validate demand before continuation. Now, the bullish orderflow is steering price toward resting liquidity overhead (draw on liquidity), with demand zones forming higher as the market reprices.
In short: orderflow reveals a demand-driven transition, with the auction process shifting value upward after clearing downside liquidity. The next key behavior will be how DXY reacts once it taps into overhead resistance and whether new demand sustains the auction higher or supply reasserts.
DXY: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 97.434 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 97.299 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️






















