DXY and a huge profit Resault: &$& pips ProfitAfter a long time, I'm back with new and profitable analyses, but before that, let's take a look at the previous analyses and update them.
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DXY trade ideas
USD Re-Tests a Familiar Area of SupportBack in April the US Dollar was dropping like a rock. While the sell-off in stocks had stalled by the time we got to Easter, the bearish trend in USD was in full-force, going along with a strong breakout in Gold and many major FX pairs. But it was the low on Easter Monday that finally stalled matters for a bit. That price came in right around the 98.00 level, and led to four weeks of strength, including through the May FOMC rate decision, all the way until the 102-handle came into play. That's where the music stopped for the USD rally in Q2, and sellers went back for another push down to fresh lows that ultimately showed with a fresh three-year-low on day one of Q3.
Since then, however, bears have been stalled and there's a couple of different supporting backdrops there, such as the oversold readings that had shown on both the daily and the weekly as we came into Q3, or the falling wedge formation that had built as sellers remained really aggressive at highs or tests of resistance while less so around lows or tests of support.
And it's not like July was all that bullish of a month for the USD as we heard Trump continue to press his desire for low rates, including threats to fire FOMC Chair Jerome Powell. And at this stage, markets are pricing in a rate cut in September, along with another by the end of the year and possibly two. So expectations on rates are really low yet, on a relative basis, the USD has held up somewhat well.
At this point we're at another major test with the USD re-testing that same spot of support that had come into play in April, around the 98.00 handle in DXY. There's more context for support in the USD down to around 97.60, which helps to create a zone. For USD-weakness, I still think GBP/USD remains as attractive, but for USD-strength, EUR/USD could be an interesting case given the Fibonacci resistance that's started to show there. - js
DXY: Absolute Price Collapse Ahead! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 97.871 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DXY ANALYSIS DXY trading within a defined range and as price prints, I'm busy refining my analysis. I'm currently looking for price to rally from here on and possibly trade back into the monthly trading range.
DXY (USDX): Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
(((((we have two trend)))))
BEST,
MT
DXYCOT Bearish Bias — Latest COT data shows increased short positions and reduced longs from institutions, signaling bearish sentiment. Expecting continued downside as supply pressure outweighs demand.
Technical Analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY) | 4-Hour Timefr🟢 Technical Analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY) | 4-Hour Timeframe
On the 4-hour chart, the US Dollar Index has recently formed a Drop-Base-Drop (DBD) structure and is now positioned on a significant support level. This area can play a critical role in traders' decision-making for the next move.
✅ Current Situation:
After the initial drop, the price entered a short-term base/consolidation phase, then continued its decline and is now testing a demand zone (support). In this structure, two potential scenarios are worth considering:
🔼 Bullish Scenario:
If the price reacts positively to this support zone:
A rebound toward previous supply areas is likely.
Holding above the first resistance could indicate a temporary or even long-term trend reversal.
This level may provide a low-risk entry opportunity for buyers targeting a reversal.
🔽 Bearish Scenario:
If selling pressure continues and the current support breaks:
A further drop as part of a third wave (impulse) may unfold.
Lower support zones would become the next target areas for sellers.
Bullish bounce off?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 97.96
1st Support: 97.18
1st Resistance: 98.73
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY ANALYSIS Levels outlined at the start of the week have been reached. Let's see how price reacts here
Dollar dropWith the break of the ascending channel's bottom, the price is expected to reach the bottom of the range.
More Downside in the Greenback?The U.S. Dollar Index began 2025 with a dramatic slide. Now, after a period of consolidation, some traders may see further downside risk.
The first pattern on today’s chart is 99.443, the closing price for both a week and the entire month of May. DXY tested above the level between July 30 and August 1. It got rejected after the Labor Department revised payroll data lower. Has resistance been confirmed?
Second, the reversal occurred at the falling 100-day simple moving average. That may reflect bearishness over the longer term.
Third, stochastics have dropped from an overbought condition. Notice how those turns have occurred at other short-term peaks (marked in yellow).
Finally, traders may focus on news flow and catalysts with the White House expected to announce a replacement for Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler this week.
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Dollar Index (DXY): Important Bearish BreakoutThe Dollar Index has fallen below a key daily/intraday support level,
which has now become resistance.
A bearish trend is likely to persist, with the next target set at 98.15.
Correction A trend change is expected to form within the current support range and we will see the start of an uptrend. A break of the 78.6% level will likely lead to a continuation of the downtrend.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) !!U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Long-Term Channel Support Held
The chart shows DXY moving within a rising parallel channel since around 2008.
Recent price action bounced right from the lower trendline (~98 zone), indicating strong structural support.
Bearish Pressure
DXY dropped below 100, currently around 98.72, down 1.32% this month.
Trading below the 200-month EMA, which suggests weakening long-term strength.
Bearish candlesticks forming near the lower channel indicate an increased risk of a breakdown if support fails.
Ichimoku Cloud Signal
Price below the Kumo (cloud) = bearish territory.
Cloud turning thin ahead — signaling potential indecision or transition.
What This Means for Markets
If the DXY breaks below this channel, it could trigger a broader USD sell-off, potentially bullish for cryptocurrencies, gold, and emerging markets.
If support holds, expect a rebound toward the 104–106 zone, especially if macro sentiment favors the dollar.
Stay updated and manage your risk accordingly.
DYOR | NFA
DXY is testing the descending trend line, breakout happening? The US dollar firmed as Trump's escalating tariff threats, from pharma to Indian exports, amplified trade tensions and boosted safe-haven flows. Despite rising global uncertainty, optimism over a possible US-China trade truce extension and a sharply narrower trade deficit also underpinned dollar strength.
DXY retreated below the descending trend line and the ascending channel's upper bound. The price is consolidating below the 100.00 psychological resistance, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement. A rebound from the support at 98.00, in line with the ascending channel's lower bound, could prompt a retest of the channel's resistance, paving the way for further gains toward the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 102.00 resistance, upon breaking 100.00. Conversely, a bearish breakout of the channel and close below the 98.00 support could prompt a further decline toward the following support at 97.00.
By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
DXY 8H – Rejected Key Resistance, Can the Dollar Bounce Back?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) just got rejected off a key 8H supply zone near the psychological 100 level — failing to reclaim a level that previously acted as major support. With EMAs flattening and macro uncertainty rising, the dollar’s next move will have big implications across global markets.
🔹 Price Structure
The $100–$101.50 zone acted as support for months before breaking — and DXY just got rejected on its first retest.
The next resistance levels are stacked at $104, $108, and $110, each tied to prior breakdown points and macro peaks.
If DXY can't reclaim $100, a slide toward EMA support at ~$98 or even new lows remains in play.
🔹 EMA Signals
Price currently hovers between the EMA 50 and EMA 100 — an indecision zone often preceding trend continuation or reversal.
A breakdown below both EMAs would confirm momentum is stalling, while a reclaim of $100 could reignite the bullish push.
🔹 Implications for Risk Assets
If the dollar weakens from here, we could see renewed upside in crypto and equities.
Conversely, a reclaim and surge toward $104+ would likely pressure risk-on markets.
Is the DXY topping out — or just gearing up for another leg higher?
Let’s talk macro 👇
Breakout from the channel again?After a long period of ranging, the DXY finally managed to break the range's ceiling last week and even gave us a channel confirmation afterward. But if you remember, there were several major news events last week, with the last one on Friday causing the price to fall back into the range. Now we can see that an ascending channel has formed inside the range, and the price is currently at the bottom of that channel. If it manages to break out of the channel again, there’s a chance that this time the trend might truly reverse.
Dollar Index Update – Holding Gains After NFP Data📈 DXY Outlook – Ready for the Next Leg Up?
Last Friday, as NFP data hit the market, I published an analysis highlighting this exact move—and so far, price has respected the roadmap perfectly.
Now, with momentum building and structure aligning, the Dollar Index looks poised to continue its bullish run—first toward the 101 zone and potentially higher toward 102.
But here’s the key point for swing traders and risk-conscious setups:
🔍 If we’re aiming for higher targets with minimal drawdown, tonight’s daily candle close will be crucial.
A bullish close above yesterday’s high would not only confirm strength, but significantly reduce entry risk for long positions.
So, whether you’re already in the trade or waiting for confirmation, patience tonight could pay off.
Let’s see if the bulls can seal the deal with a strong daily close.
🔁 This analysis will be updated whenever necessary.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal opinion.
DXY: Absolute Price Collapse Ahead! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 98.553 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 98.471.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
KOG - DXYDXY
As we can see here we've hit and breached the target level we gave a few weeks ago on the dollar. We're now at a red box level that can cause a temporary tap and bounce unless it's broken, so we'll keep an eye on this.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
DXY In A Supply ZonePrice is currently reacting to an H1 supply zone. If it holds, pressure will continue to the downside. Obvious target is in daily demand.
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot, which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.62
1st Support: 97.96
1st Resistance: 99.54
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
US Dollar Bottom: Don’t Rush InSince the beginning of the year, the US dollar (DXY) has been the weakest currency in the floating exchange market (FX). However, since mid-July, a technical rebound has begun, fueled by several fundamental factors, notably the Federal Reserve’s monetary hawkishness. But can this upward move be interpreted as a true annual bottom?
Or is it merely a temporary short squeeze before a return to the lows? As high finance fundamentals swing back and forth, let’s assess the technical outlook for the US dollar (DXY).
1) Rate cut expected on Wednesday, September 17 – fundamentals in flux
The recent rebound in the US dollar coincides with the Federal Reserve's firm stance in refusing, for now, to resume rate cuts, which have been on hold since late 2024. In its latest monetary policy decision on July 30, the Fed reaffirmed that no tangible factors justify a rapid rate cut. Disinflation appears paused, and the institution prefers to wait until fall to assess the impact of tariff measures on the core PCE index (inflation excluding food and energy).
However, a major red flag emerged with the release of a very poor Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on August 1, reflecting a significant weakening in the labor market — a fundamental red alert!
The Fed has made it clear that the evolution of employment will be a key factor in its September decision. A weaker labor market could accelerate a monetary policy shift, renewing downward pressure on the US dollar.
2) Technical analysis of the US dollar (DXY): short-term rebound... but no medium-term trend reversal yet
From a technical standpoint, July's rebound is based on medium/long-term support levels that have so far acted as potential reversal bases. Can we legitimately speak of an annual low for the DXY? Has a major resistance been broken? The answer remains NO for now.
Weekly and monthly charts do not yet show a clear bullish reversal pattern. Some bullish divergence signals are emerging, notably on the RSI and LMACD, but they remain insufficient to confirm a lasting regime shift. A comparison with the 2018 and 2021 lows is telling: at those times, technical divergences were far more pronounced and bullish reversal structures had been confirmed.
The Elliott wave approach suggests a rebound is plausible within a corrective structure, but it does not yet guarantee a major trend reversal.
Data from the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report and ETF flows tied to the dollar indicate some hesitation among institutional investors. While short positions have declined, there’s no clear evidence of large-scale buying.
In summary, the US dollar rebound since mid-July is real but fragile. As long as technical signals remain unclear and the labor market is flashing red, betting on a sustainable trend reversal remains risky. The annual low may be in place, but it is not yet confirmed from a technical, macroeconomic, or behavioral standpoint.
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