DXY testing trend resistance after Powell comments
The dollar clawed back some ground after Jerome Powell’s latest remarks, but I’m not convinced this bounce has legs. With the Fed now leaning dovish, the bias still favours more downside unless we see consistent cracks in the jobs market to justify the two cuts priced in for 2025.
Powell reiterated on Tuesday that inflation risks are skewed higher while employment risks are tilted lower, adding: “Two-sided risks mean there is no risk-free path.” Translation: he’s keeping his options open ahead of the October meeting. Fed chatter will remain front and centre, with Mary Daly up later today, jobless claims tomorrow, and the key PCE inflation reading on Friday.
The dollar index is now testing resistance around 97.60–97.80 area — a confluence of the 21-day EMA, broken support, and a trendline. Until this area breaks, it’s hard to get bullish. The broader picture of lower highs and lows still screams corrective.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Trade ideas
Dollar Headed Higher?Looking at the price of the dollar from a daily perspective, we can see that price accumulated for about 3 full trading weeks. Manipulation took place soon after, followed by 3 strong bullish candles.
Now that bulls have entered the market after the manipulation, I fully expect the distribution to take place after retesting the bullish FVG.
Since this is the dollar we're talking about, this price movement will most likely affect the price of other assets including Gold and dollar pairs.
Targeting the daily POI/Medium BSL.
DXY – Potential Inverted Head & Shoulders FormationTVC:DXY
The DXY is currently consolidating in a way that suggests the development of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. We have support distributed between $96.37 and $96.21 , creating a potential base for this pattern. On the upside, the recent breakout through $97.45 highlights bullish intent, with the next critical level being the daily fractal resistance at $97.82 , which acts as the neckline .
Breakout Implications
A confirmed break and close above $97.82 would validate the pattern and shift momentum toward higher targets. If this scenario plays out, extension levels become the next logical zones of interest:
127% Fibonacci extension: $98.60 - bearish butterfly pattern
161.8% Fibonacci extension: $99.26 - bearish crab pattern
200% Fibonacci extension: $99.38 - H&S default target
Risk Factors & Harmonic Patterns
While the bullish case is clear above $97.82 , caution is warranted. Harmonic patterns may begin to take shape around $98.60 and $99.26 , which often serve as areas of exhaustion or reversal. These zones could lead to temporary pullbacks, and in a broader context, may even reassert the prevailing downtrend seen in recent months.
Key Takeaway
The confirmation or rejection of the $97.82 neckline will be pivotal in defining the next directional phase for the DXY. We should monitor price behavior carefully at each Fibonacci extension, balancing the potential for continuation against the risk of harmonic-driven reversals.
Safe Trades,
André Cardoso
US DOLLAR LIQUIDITY GAMES MAPThe U.S. Dollar is testing traders resolve.
Price action keeps pressing higher, and a daily close above 97.394 would confirm a classic “fractal low” — the kind of structural pivot that lures late buyers before the real move unfolds.
3 Key Insights
Macro Calendar – Stay alert:
Thu – Final Q2 GDP, Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders.
Fri – Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, University of Michigan Sentiment (final).
These are the week’s steering currents for USD flows.
A daily close above 97.394 is the key trigger to confirm a fresh leg higher.
• EUR/USD short bias remains valid while DXY stays bid, but expect intraday volatility around data releases.
DXY – Post-Fed Cut: What’s Next for the Dollar?The Fed has cut rates — but the dollar didn’t flinch. No major reaction, which suggests the move was priced in.
I currently see two possible scenarios unfolding on DXY:
Scenario 1: Triangle Completed – More Downside Ahead
If we’ve finished a triangle correction, a break below 96.20 could confirm the move and open up downside toward $95–$92.
Chart:
Scenario 2: Ending Diagonal in Wave 5
Alternatively, the recent low may mark the end of a 5th wave diagonal, completing Wave 3 of the broader decline. If so, we could see choppy corrective action before any larger moves.
Chart:
Key level to watch: Break below $96.20
If price closes above $100.25 I will review the analysis as this may indicate the downward trend is complete.
USDX: demand zone holds but downside pressure remainsThe US dollar index remains under pressure, trading within a descending channel. The recent bounce from the support zone around 96.30–96.90 stalled at the EMAs and the supply zone near 98.30–98.60, where sellers reappeared. On the 4H chart, price has failed to sustain above 97.80, keeping the bearish scenario in play.
It is also important to note that the index is trading below the 200 EMA, reinforcing the bearish bias and signaling that sustainable recovery is less likely without strong fundamental catalysts.
If 96.90 breaks, the next downside target is 96.30, followed by 95.40. Stronger bearish momentum could even push the index toward 94.00, signaling further dollar weakness. For now, 96.30 acts as the key support barrier.
From a fundamental perspective, the dollar index remains weighed down by expectations of a dovish Fed and lower yields. Any hawkish surprise from Fed officials could lift price back toward 98.50, but the structure still favors bearish continuation.
This is exactly the kind of situation where market expectations diverge from reality, and the longer it lasts the more it feels like a trend reversal is near. But as always, emotions must be set aside — we wait for clear signals, not illusions.
DXY Dollar Heist: Can You Escape @100?🔥 DXY Dollar Index Bank Heist Plan (Swing Trade) 🔥
Asset: DXY Dollar Index 💵Plan: Bullish 📈Thief Trading Style: Layered Limit Order Strategy 🕵️♂️
🏦 The Heist Plan 🏦
Dear Thief OG's, Ladies & Gentlemen, get ready to pull off the ultimate DXY heist! 💰 We're using the Thief Layering Strategy to stack multiple limit orders and maximize our loot. Follow the plan, adjust to your risk, and let’s escape with the cash! 🚨
📈 Entry: The Break-In
Strategy: Deploy multiple buy limit orders to layer your entries like a master thief 🕴️. Suggested levels:
98.00 💸
98.20 💸
98.40 💸
98.60 💸
Flexibility: Add more layers based on your risk appetite or market conditions 📊.
Pro Tip: Set an alert on TradingView to catch the breakout or pullback at these levels 🚨.
🛑 Stop Loss: The Escape Route
Thief SL: Set at 97.50 to protect your stash 🛡️.
Risk Management: Adjust SL based on your lot size, risk tolerance, and number of layered entries ⚖️.
Warning: Don’t get caught! This is a high-stakes heist—stick to your risk plan 🔥.
🎯 Target: The Getaway
Police Barricade: Resistance at 100.30 🚓—watch out!
Our Target: Take profits at 100.00 to escape with the loot before the market traps you 🏃♂️💨.
🧠 Why This Heist?
The DXY is showing bullish momentum based on real-time market data 📡:
Macro Factors: Strong USD demand driven by economic indicators (check COT reports, geopolitics, and intermarket analysis) 🌍.
Technical Setup: Layered entries align with swing trade pullbacks and key support zones 📉.
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EUR/USD ShortEUR/USD Short Position Analysis
Currently holding short positions on EUR/USD initiated during the Asian session. The trade setup shows a bearish bias with multiple profit targets clearly marked on the 5-minute chart:
Primary Target: Target 2 around 1.17540 level
Additional Targets: Target 1 at 1.17679 and Target 3 at 1.17360
The chart displays key horizontal resistance/support levels with dashed lines, and the current price action suggests continued downward momentum toward the designated targets. Risk management levels and entry points appear well-defined based on the technical structure shown.
Trade Status: Active short positions with systematic target approach for profit-taking.
H4 DXY Market UpdateRight now, DXY is showing signs of indecision. No clear direction has been established yet.
I’m currently waiting for price to move towards one of the Turning Points (TNP) — either TNP A (resistance) or TNP B (support) — before making any trading decisions.
For now, I’ve set alerts at both zones and will keep monitoring closely.
Dollar Index Resistance & Support AnalysisDXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is trading around 97.71, holding within an upward channel after bouncing from the 97.00–97.10 support zone. The structure shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating short-term bullish momentum. However, the chart also highlights a potential “strong high” area near 98.20–98.40, where resistance from both Fibonacci retracement levels and channel tops converge. If DXY fails to break above this resistance, a retracement toward 97.20–97.00 is likely, with further downside risk toward 96.80 if that support breaks.
Based on the current setup, short-term upside toward 98.20–98.40 is possible, but overall bias suggests a likely pullback (downside) after testing resistance, especially if momentum weakens near the channel top.
🔴 Sell Zone (Short Setup)
- Sell Zone (Resistance area): 98.20 – 98.40
- Sell Trigger: If price tests and rejects this zone with bearish candles (reversal signals).
🟢 Buy Zone (Long Setup)
- Buy Zone (Support area): 97.20 – 97.30
- Buy Trigger: If price holds above this zone and shows bullish reversal candles (hammer, engulfing, etc.).
Note
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DXY | Bullish Reversal from IFVG – Targeting 99.50 Supply ZoneHello Billionaires!!
In DXY D1 Projection we know The US Dollar Index has tapped into the Imbalance/Fair Value Gap (IFVG) and shown signs of bullish reaction after sweeping Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL). This aligns with a potential reversal model aiming towards higher liquidity levels.
🔹 Key Points:
SSL swept, confirming liquidity grab.
Price reacting from IFVG as demand zone.
Short-term retracement expected, followed by continuation.
Targeting the BPR supply zone around 99.50 and eventually Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) above 100.00.
As long as DXY holds above the IFVG zone, bullish continuation remains the primary outlook.
Bearish drop off?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 97.85
1st Support: 96.61
1st Resistance: 98.70
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Dollar Index drop at the start of the weekAfter last week’s high volatility due to major news — which gave the dollar a slight upward move — today, at the start of the week, it turned bearish. The channel it had managed to break after a long time now seems to be retesting, and so far it looks like it may fall back inside.
Overall, the dollar’s trend remains bearish, and taking long positions isn’t logical until we clearly see strong bullish signals. ✅
DOLLAR INDEX DXY WEEKLY ANALYSISDXY is trading near 97.70, attempting a rebound from the 96.90–97.00 support zone (since last week), aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement.
Prices are facing a confluence of resistance including fib level 0.786 & middle Bollinger band near 97.70 towards approaching the falling trendline resistance around 98.00–98.10, which will be a key inflection level for direction.
RSI has bounced from near-oversold (45 zone) and is pointing higher, suggesting mild bullish momentum in the short term.
On the downside, a failure to hold 97.40 (fib level 0.618) could extend weakness toward 96.90, towards the falling trendline support.
This week’s heavy US data calendar (Powell’s speech, PMIs, GDP, PCE) could provide catalysts for a breakout move.
Overall, bias is neutral-to-bullish in the short term unless 97.40 - 97.00 zone is breached decisively.
DXY 4H Outlook – Key Levels & Potential Scenarios💡 DXY 4H Outlook – Key Levels & Potential Scenarios
Price is currently testing an important supply zone (97.7 – 98.0) after showing a strong recovery. From here, I’m watching two possible outcomes:
🔼 Bullish Scenario
If buyers manage to hold above the 97.7 – 98.0 supply zone, we could see continuation toward the next major resistance between 98.2 – 98.6.
Break & retest of 98.0 would be a strong confirmation for buyers.
🔽 Bearish Scenario
If the 97.7 – 98.0 area rejects strongly, price could reverse back down toward the demand zone (96.4 – 96.6) for liquidity grab.
This zone has previously acted as a strong reaction point.
⚔️ Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 98.0 | 98.2 | 98.6
Support: 97.4 | 96.6
📊 This setup gives both bulls and bears opportunities depending on how price reacts at these zones.
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