NAS100 at Crossroads: Bulls Eye 25K Breakout or Pullback Trap?Spot Price: 24,875 | Session: London-NY Overlap | 09:43 UTC+4
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🔎 Market Structure Overview
Price action on NAS100 reveals a consolidation phase following last week's bullish momentum. The index is currently hovering near a critical demand zone, with buyers defending the 24,800 handle aggressively. On the higher timeframes, the trend remains intact, but shorter intervals suggest a potential retracement before continuation.
📈 Multi-Timeframe Breakdown
5M & 15M: Minor bearish divergence forming on RSI as price prints higher highs while momentum weakens. Watch for a pullback toward 24,820 for scalp entries.
30M: Price respecting the ascending trendline from Friday's lows. A breach below 24,790 invalidates this structure.
1H: Ichimoku Cloud providing solid support – Tenkan crossing above Kijun signals short-term bullish bias.
4H: Bollinger Bands tightening, hinting at an imminent volatility expansion. VWAP anchored at 24,850 acting as intraday pivot.
🧠 Technical Confluence Zones
Key Resistance: 24,950 – 25,020 (psychological barrier + prior swing high)
Key Support: 24,780 – 24,720 (demand cluster + 50 SMA on 1H)
⚡ Pattern Recognition
A potential ascending triangle is developing on the 30M chart, with horizontal resistance near 24,920 and rising lows. A decisive breakout above this ceiling could trigger acceleration toward 25,050. Conversely, failure at resistance may initiate a corrective wave toward the 24,700 region.
📐 Wyckoff & Elliott Perspective
Current price action resembles Phase C of accumulation under Wyckoff methodology – a spring or shakeout below 24,800 would confirm smart money absorption before markup. From an Elliott standpoint, we appear to be completing wave (iv) of a larger impulse sequence, with wave (v) extension targeting 25,100+.
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🎯 Trade Setup – Intraday Long
Entry Zone: 24,820 – 24,850 (on pullback to demand)
Stop Loss: 24,740 (below structure invalidation)
Take Profit 1: 24,950 (initial resistance)
Take Profit 2: 25,020 (extended target)
Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:2.5
🎯 Alternative Setup – Short Scalp (Counter-Trend)
Entry: 24,940 – 24,960 (rejection at resistance)
Stop Loss: 25,010
Take Profit: 24,850
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⚠️ Risk Note: Monitor US economic calendar for potential catalysts. Thin pre-holiday liquidity could amplify volatility – adjust position sizing accordingly.
Trade wisely. Protect capital first. 💼
