Trade ideas
BUY EVERY BIG TECH, BUY AND HOLD UNTIL OCTOBERBuy the pivot level. hold for the last 7-month bull run until October 2025.
Price and time cycles suggest that price will peak in October 2025 and a second swing high in March 2026 for the midcycle correction. We would look for the top at 26k
Buy every big tech, buy the major stocks, buy, buy......
The 7-month cycle from March to October 2025 will be the second largest swing within the 5-year bull run from 2020 crash low
Trade safe, good luck.
NASDAQ Channel Up found support and aims for 25600.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the August 28 High and on Friday it tested its 1H MA100 (green trend-line) again and rebounded. That has been a bullish continuation signal within this pattern every time a 1H MA50/ 100 takes place.
On the previous Bullish Leg that confirmed the upside continuation all the way to the 2.382 Fibonacci extension before a 1H MA50/ 100 Bearish Cross and new Low.
As a result, the current short-term Target on Nasdaq is 25600.
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NASDAQ 100 (1W) – Elliott Wave + Smart Money Analysis by FIBCOSThe index (NASDAQ) continues its macro impulsive structure, now expanding through Wave (3) — targeting the 2.618 Fibonacci extension near 26,997( 27K ).
Smart Money is driving this leg with clear bullish order flow, creating multiple Fair Value Gaps and Breaks of Structure along the way.
After this expansion, we expect a Wave (4) correction between 22,000–17,500, where institutional demand zones await for re-accumulation before the next macro bullish leg (Wave 5) toward 35,000–38,000.
📊 Confluence Highlights:
Wave (3) → 2.618 extension (target zone: 26.9K–27K)
Wave (4) → 0.382–0.618 retracement (zone: 22K–18K)
Wave (5) → 1.618 projection (target zone: 35K–38K)
🧠 Elliott Wave Theory Interpretation
① Wave (1) — The Initial Expansion (2020–2021)
Early bullish impulse following pandemic recovery.
Represents Smart Money accumulation followed by a breakout.
Retail participation remains limited; institutional footprints dominate.
② Wave (2) — Corrective Pullback (2022–2023)
Sharp decline toward the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone.
This phase was a liquidity grab — Smart Money re-entering after shaking out weak hands.
Price formed a higher low , maintaining long-term bullish structure.
③ Wave (3) — The Power Leg (2023–2026)
The strongest and most extended wave — aligned perfectly with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~26,997 zone).
Confirms institutional markup phase , where:
Retail short sellers are trapped.
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are created during impulsive moves.
Continuous Break of Structure (BOS) validates bullish order flow.
Smaller degree sub-waves (1–5) visible inside, confirming internal impulse rhythm.
④ Wave (4) — The Upcoming Correction (2026–2027)
Expected macro re-accumulation zone , likely between 22,000 – 17,500 .
Market may enter a sideways complex correction (W–X–Y)/(W-X-Y-X-Z) pattern.
This is the Smart Money re-accumulation phase — liquidity collection before the next macro expansion.
Demand zones: previous unmitigated order blocks around 20,000–18,000 area.
⑤ Wave (5) — The Final Expansion (2028–2029)
After consolidation, the index may aim for new all-time highs toward 35,000–38,000 range.
This represents a distribution phase , where Smart Money offloads positions near cycle tops.
Expect divergence in momentum indicators , hinting at the end of the 5-wave structure.
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💡 Smart Money Concept (SMC) Confluence
Concept | Observation | Implication
Liquidity Sweep - Below 2022–2023 lows (Smart Money accumulation confirmation)
Order Blocks - 22,000–18,000 zone {Institutional demand zone for Wave (4)}
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) During Wave (3) impulsive rise {Will likely get mitigated during Wave (4)}
Break of Structure (BOS ) Continuous bullish BOS confirms institutional intent
Premium/Discount Zones Current price at premium (above equilibrium) Ideal region for institutional profit-taking
🧭 Smart Money Flow:
Accumulation → Expansion → Re-accumulation → Final Distribution
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📐 Fibonacci Confluence Levels
Wave (3) → 2.618× extension of Wave (1–2) → ~26,997 (expected macro resistance).
Wave (4) → retracement likely between 0.382–0.618 → 22,000–17,500 zone.
Wave (5) → projected 1.618× of Wave (1–3) → 35,000–38,000 .
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🧭 Market Outlook Summary
Timeframe | Bias | Expectation
Short-Term (2025–2026) 📈 Bullish Continuation toward 26,900–27,000
Medium-Term (2026–2027) ⚠ Corrective Re-accumulation phase, smart money reloads
Long-Term (2028–2029) 🚀 Bullish Wave (5) macro expansion toward 35K–38K
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🔖 FIBCOS Summary
> NASDAQ 100 Weekly Chart (Elliott + SMC)
Currently expanding through a powerful Wave (3) toward the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~27K).
After completion, a macro correction (Wave 4) is expected, providing the next Smart Money accumulation zone between 22K–18K before the final Wave 5 expansion toward new highs beyond 35K.
📘 Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Educational purpose only.
#FIBCOS #NASDAQ100 #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #MarketCycle #Fibonacci
US100 Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for US100 below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 24770
Bias -Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 24845
Safe Stop Loss - 24731
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
US100 Technical Update – Supply Pressure at Highs, Demand Holds 1H Technical Zone Analysis
Zone 1: Major Supply / Rejection Zone
This area marks the upper extreme of the recent rally and represents a clear supply pocket where sellers previously stepped in aggressively. Until price reclaims and holds above 25,000, this zone should be treated as short-term resistance. A clean breakout and acceptance above could open the door to further upside continuation.
Zone 2: Intraday Resistance / Retest Level
This mid-level zone has acted as both support and resistance over recent sessions, making it an important pivot area. Price is currently testing into it from below; failure to clear this level may attract renewed selling pressure and confirm the zone as intraday resistance.
Zone 3: Key Demand / Short-Term Buy Zone
This is the most significant near-term support. Price reacted strongly from this level during the last sell-off, showing clear buyer absorption. As long as this demand zone holds, short-term market structure remains bullish. A decisive break below would likely trigger a deeper correction.
Sentiment and the most recent macro developments:
The US100 is holding near record highs, but the tone across markets has turned cautiously optimistic rather than euphoric. Investors continue to favor large-cap tech and AI-driven names, which remain the primary source of market strength. Falling bond yields and growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut rates sooner rather than later are also helping sustain upside momentum.
At the same time, recent economic data has shown clear signs of cooling. The ISM Services PMI dropped sharply to 50.0 in September, signaling that the U.S. service sector, which drives most of the economy, has essentially stalled. The employment component within the report fell further into contraction territory, confirming softness already seen in the ADP jobs report earlier in the week. Combined with an ongoing government shutdown that delays official data releases, investors are trading in an information vacuum, relying more on expectations and positioning than hard fundamentals.
Overall, sentiment on US100 remains bullish but fragile. The index is being lifted by liquidity, AI optimism, and rate-cut hopes rather than strong macro performance. This creates a market that can continue drifting higher in the short term, but is increasingly vulnerable to reversals if inflation surprises on the upside or if economic weakness deepens beyond what investors currently expect.
BIAS FOR THE WEEK: 20 OCT TO 24 OCT 2025AN IDEA OF WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE OCCUR IN PRICE.
IF NOT, THEN I WILL LOOK TO ADJUST MY BIAS ACCORDINGLY.
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The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits.
All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute a recommendation to buy/sell.
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Us100 Beautiful price action for the Friday
NFP ,data still not released due to the shut down, this will further effect the other major economic data outputs ,
Us100 on a steady close for Friday .
24000-25000 range close .
Took out previous day low in the Asian /London sessions
Trading back above markert open
Potential push to previous week low or continue to previous day highs and Asian day high
Nasdaq100 Breakout Map – Bullish Targets Ahead?🕵️♂️ NDX/US100 “NASDAQ100” Market Wealth Strategy Map (Swing/Day Trade) 🚀
📊 Plan: Bullish Bias (Swing/Day Trade)
🎯 Entry Idea (Thief Layering Style):
Using a layering strategy (multiple limit orders). My preferred buy zones are:
🟢 24,300
🟢 24,400
🟢 24,500
🟢 24,600
(Feel free to adjust/add layers based on your own style — flexibility is key.)
🔒 Protective Stop (Thief SL):
❌ Around 24,000 (but note: this is just my map, you can manage risk as per your own plan).
💰 Target Area (Profit Zone):
🚧 25,500 = strong resistance barricade + overbought region + potential bull trap.
✅ My preferred exit: 25,400 (just before the “police barricade” 🚓).
⚠️ Note for Thief OG’s:
I’m not recommending to only follow my SL/TP. This is an educational trade map, not a fixed financial call. Adapt, adjust, and take profits your way.
🔑 Key Catalysts & Correlation Map:
Tech Sector Strength: US100 often mirrors mega-cap tech momentum ( NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:NVDA ).
Risk-On/Off Mood: Watch TVC:VIX — if fear spikes, layers may fill quicker.
Dollar Impact: TVC:DXY weakness often fuels NASDAQ:NDX upside.
Bond Yields: Higher yields = pressure on tech. Keep TVC:US10Y in your radar.
📌 Other Related Charts to Watch:
SP:SPX / CME_MINI:ES1! → Correlated US equity benchmark.
TVC:DXY → Inverse correlation (watch dollar moves).
TVC:VIX → Volatility indicator for risk sentiment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD → Risk sentiment cousin, moves with tech flows sometimes.
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is a Thief Style Trading Strategy Map — created for fun, educational purposes, and market observation only. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk, ladies & gentlemen. 🕵️♂️💸
#NASDAQ100 #NDX #US100 #SPX #Stocks #Indices #Trading #SwingTrade #DayTrade #LayeringStrategy #ThiefTrader
NASDAQ (US100) Analysis:The NASDAQ index is moving in a short-term upward trend and is now approaching the 24,900 resistance zone.
🔺 Bullish Scenario:
If the price breaks above 24,900 and holds, this could support further upside movement toward the liquidity zone around 25,200.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
If the price rejects from resistance, it may retest the 24,700 support level, and a break below it could shift the trend back to bearish.
📈 Best Buy Zones: on a rebound from 24,750 or after a confirmed breakout above 24,900
📉 Best Sell Zone: below 24,700
NSDQ100 Oversold bounce back supported at 243761. Volatile Sentiment
Markets have whipsawed since Friday due to shifting US-China trade tensions.
In the last 24 hours, the S&P 500 swung from -1.5% to +0.4% intraday, closing just slightly down (-0.16%), highlighting fragile sentiment.
2. Fed Chair Powell’s Dovish Tone
Powell signaled a likely 25bps rate cut this month, citing soft hiring trends.
His dovish comments helped tech stocks and boosted risk appetite, especially in the second half of the US session.
3. Trump’s Trade Escalation Comments
Trump accused China of not buying soybeans and hinted at ending trade involving cooking oil and other goods.
These late comments undermined risk sentiment, reversing some of Powell's support.
4. Sector Performance
S&P Financials (+1.12%) outperformed on Q3 bank earnings.
Consumer Staples (+3.04%) also led, reflecting a defensive shift amid headline risk.
Tech was more volatile but held up on Powell’s policy support.
5. ECB Commentary
Villeroy hinted at rate cuts, while Makhlouf expressed inflation concerns, showing a split in ECB tone.
This may add uncertainty for European tech sentiment impacting US tech peers.
Takeaway for Nasdaq-100 Today
Supportive Fed signals are a tailwind for tech, but geopolitical risks (US-China) are keeping markets jumpy.
Expect headline-driven volatility to remain high.
Focus on big tech earnings, bond yields, and any new trade developments for direction.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 24908
Resistance Level 2: 25050
Resistance Level 3: 25200
Support Level 1: 24376
Support Level 2: 24205
Support Level 3: 23920
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Nas100 - Cautious Rebound: Tests Resistance, Demand Still IntactNas100 – 4H Technical Zone Analysis
Zone 1: Major Supply / Rejection Zone
This area represents the upper resistance band just below the recent all-time high. It’s where sellers previously absorbed liquidity and triggered the latest strong downside move. Until price can reclaim and hold above this level, it remains a key supply zone. Any retest from below should be watched for signs of exhaustion or rejection, as sellers could step in aggressively again.
Zone 2: Secondary Supply / Intraday Pivot Zone
Zone 2 has acted as both support and resistance in recent sessions. It now serves as a secondary supply zone and an intraday pivot level. If price fails to break cleanly above it, the area could cap upside momentum and trigger another pullback. A decisive breakout above, with acceptance on higher volume, would strengthen bullish control and open the path toward Zone 1.
Zone 3: Key Demand / Structural Support
This zone marks the base of the recent rebound, the origin of the strong bullish impulse following the heavy sell-off. Buyers have shown clear commitment here, defending the level multiple times. As long as price stays above Zone 3, short-term structure remains constructive. A breakdown below would shift sentiment bearish and expose deeper liquidity pools toward 24,000.
The Nas100 is trading with a cautious and slightly bearish tone today after sentiment weakened overnight. Earlier optimism from easing U.S.–China trade rhetoric has faded as fresh tensions resurfaced, including new tariff threats and U.S. accusations that China is manipulating access to key technology resources. These headlines have reignited risk aversion, pulling down tech and growth names that had led the recent rebound.
At the same time, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to delay official economic data releases, leaving markets to trade largely on speculation, headlines, and positioning rather than fundamentals. This lack of clarity has made sentiment fragile and intraday volatility high.
Still, the broader outlook remains supported by strong AI and tech-sector investment, which the IMF recently said is helping shield the U.S. from a deeper slowdown. That theme continues to attract capital to the Nasdaq, even as valuations stay stretched and macro uncertainty lingers.
Overall, the mood on Nas100 is cautiously defensive, investors remain positioned in growth stocks but are increasingly sensitive to geopolitical and policy shocks that could quickly reverse momentum.
USTEC Recovers Within Channel, Can AI Strength Sustain Its RallyUSTEC steadied after recent losses as fresh AI developments reignited tech optimism. AMD (AMD) secured a major order from Oracle (ORCL) for its upcoming MI450 chips, signaling progress in its bid to challenge Nvidia's (NVDA) dominance. The deal, alongside OpenAI's expanded partnerships with Broadcom (AVGO) and Oracle, underscored the accelerating AI infrastructure race. However, lingering caution over trade frictions and US policy uncertainty could cap upside momentum in the near term.
From a technical perspective, USTEC rebounded above the ascending channel's lower bound and support at 24000. The index is holding above the Ichimoku Cloud. If USTEC breaks the resistance at 25200, the price may gain upward momentum toward the resistance at 26000. Conversely, a bearish breakout of the ascending channel and support at 24000 may prompt a further decline toward the following support at 23000.
By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness