US100 trade ideas
NAS100 - Market Structure, Confluence & FIBDear Friends in Trading,
How I see it,
Keynote:
I missed the big drop, not sure if investors will try to recover before Friday's
Retail data and Powell speech.
1) I will look for quality scalping Long / Short opportunities till then.
2) I indicated the confluences - price action may rocket or drop
strongly between them.
Let me know if anything is unclear.
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
NAS 100 bounce from Trend line supportDescription/Idea:
Price has been respecting this ascending trendline for several weeks, forming higher lows and maintaining bullish momentum.
Currently, we see a retest of both the trendline and a demand zone (highlighted in blue), which aligns with a potential bullish continuation setup.
🔹 Entry: Around 23,300 – 23,350 (trendline + demand confluence)
🔹 Stop-loss: Below the demand zone (~23,150)
🔹 Target: First resistance near 23,800, with potential to extend higher if momentum continues.
This setup provides a clean risk-to-reward ratio of over 3:1, making it attractive for swing traders.
📌 Key points to watch:
If price holds above the trendline, bulls remain in control.
A breakdown below the demand zone could invalidate the setup and open the door for deeper downside.
Trade safe, manage your risk ✅
NASDAQ: 10:1 R/R Setup - One More High Before Major CorrectionSharing my current outlook on NASDAQ with a high-probability setup offering exceptional risk-reward. 📊
**🎯 The Setup:**
I'm expecting one more push to new all-time highs from the yellow line around 23,000. This would offer a **10:1 risk-to-reward ratio** with the stop loss just below the recent low. 🚀
**📍 Yellow Line Logic:**
This level represents my experience-based zone just shy of the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. I've observed that when price reaches the 0.786 level, it tends to result in a complete reversal more often than not. This yellow line sits in that "sweet spot" where buyers typically step in. 🎯
**📈 Chart Structure Support:**
The overall chart pattern suggests a higher probability of making new highs rather than a complete reversal from current levels. The structure is bullish despite the recent pullback. ✅
**🔄 Bigger Picture Scenario:**
After the anticipated new high, I expect a significant retracement back toward the previous high (red line area). However, this would likely be just a healthy correction before the bull run resumes for the remainder of the year. 📉➡️📈
**🧠 Key Insight:**
Sometimes the best trades come when the market gives you that "one more push" setup. The risk is small relative to the potential reward, making this a compelling opportunity if the setup materializes. 💡
📈 **This trade setup offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 10:1.** Without including fees, the breakeven win rate for this trade would be approximately 9.09%. Knowing these figures in advance helps me avoid emotional trading. 🧠
💡 **Pro Tip**: If you often find yourself trading based on emotions, I recommend doing this type of pre-planning and quantifying your setups before execution — it can be a simple yet highly effective improvement. ✅
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**Trading is simple.** You don't need multiple indicators or dozens of lines on your chart. A clean and simple chart often works best — it keeps your decisions consistent and reduces uncertainty. Sure, it might not look flashy, and my analysis may seem a bit "plain" compared to others… but that's how I like it. If you find this analysis useful, feel free to follow me for more updates.
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*Disclaimer: This post is for general informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or a service targeting specific investors, and should not be considered illegal or restricted information in any jurisdiction.*
key levels for the nqIf the nq breaks 23362 we have enough information to wait for a shakeout and then enter. if it breaks 23210.7 we got to wait for a retracement and then a shakeout to sell. But, be aware that for sales the target should be more aggressive which means to cover on 23k, and just in case, we can leave a small portion of the position open but cover more than 70% because it might be the macro shakeout.
US 100 Buy-Stop, 4H/1D Close Above ResistanceUS 100 has closed above Resistance on 4 Hour and Daily Timeframe.
It is in Bullish Trend on Daily Timeframe. The trend is very likely to continue based on Technicals.
Moreover, it is likely that Federal Reserve will lower the interest rates in the Unied States. If that happens, financial markets will continue the upward trajectory. That however, is a long-term projection. Our trade setup here is just 1:1 but we can see more such trades in the future.
US100 Risky Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
US100 made a sharp
Move up and made a
Retest of the horizontal
Resistance of 23,375
From where we will be
Expecting a local bearish
Correction and a move down
Sell!
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NAS100 4HTrading Outlook for Major Currency Pairs and Indices, Especially Gold and Silver, in the Upcoming Week
In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and market outlooks.
As can be seen, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance area near the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to or break of these levels will determine the subsequent price trend up to the next specified levels.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to identify key price levels and potential market reactions, and the analyses provided should not be considered as trading signals.
Nasdaq Pulls Back from Recent HighsToward the end of the week, the Nasdaq index began to retreat, posting a decline of at least 1.5% in the short term, as a new bearish bias has started to emerge strongly, preventing the index from reaching the historical highs again. For now, the momentum driven by expectations of lower interest rates has begun to fade in recent sessions, while corrections in stocks such as Nvidia—which represent a significant share of the index’s market capitalization—have limited buying pressure heading into the week’s close. Given this backdrop, as the market awaits key economic data, such as the upcoming U.S. employment report on Friday, uncertainty and sideways movements may continue to dominate trading sessions in the near term.
Short-Term Sideways Range
The lack of clear direction in recent movements has led to the formation of a sideways range in the Nasdaq, currently defined by resistance at 23,800 points and support at 22,800 points. As long as price action remains within these levels, neutrality will likely remain the prevailing scenario in the short term.
Technical Indicators
RSI: the RSI line is oscillating near the neutral 50 level, reflecting a consistent balance between buying and selling pressure over the past 14 sessions. This suggests that the neutral bias has begun to dominate short-term movements in the index.
MACD: the MACD histogram also hovers close to the 0 line, showing that short-term moving averages maintain a neutral bias. As long as this condition holds, the current sideways range is likely to remain relevant in upcoming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
23,800 points – Main Resistance: corresponds to recent highs in the Nasdaq. A sustained breakout above this level could open the door to a more consistent bullish trend in the short term.
22,800 points – Near-Term Support: aligns with the Ichimoku cloud and stands as the most important barrier for containing short-term downward corrections.
22,200 points – Critical Support: coincides with neutral price areas observed on the chart in February of this year and is also converging with the 200-period moving average. If this level comes under consistent pressure, it could pave the way for a more dominant bearish bias.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis – 28 August 2025- Nasdaq-100 reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 24000.00
Nasdaq-100 index recently reversed from the support zone between the strong support level 23000.00 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of July), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from June.
The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer – which started the active impulse wave (iii).
Given the strong daily uptrend, Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 24000.00 (which stopped the earlier impulse wave i).
US100 – Breakout or a Classic Bull Trap?
The US100 (Nasdaq Index) has recently shown what looks like a breakout on the 4-hour timeframe after a phase of consolidation. On the surface, this can easily be perceived as a bullish continuation. However, a closer look reveals that the breakout might just be setting up for a classic bull trap.
I am currently positioned short on the index with a view that the current move could fail to sustain. The price has entered into my marked supply zone, an area where selling pressure historically outweighs demand. If this zone holds true to its nature, we can see a strong rejection from here.
• LTP (Last Traded Price): 23,690
• Supply Zone: Highlighted on chart
• Downside Target: Around 22,500
The broader structure still suggests that while short-term euphoria pulls prices higher, the underlying momentum may not support sustained gains. If the bulls lose control here, the downside could open up swiftly, validating this thesis.
I’ll be watching how price reacts in this zone closely. For now, I remain short-biased, anticipating a rejection and a move towards the 22,500 mark.
A Crucial Test Lies Ahead for the Nasdaq 100The Nasdaq 100 faces a major test over the remainder of this week, with Nvidia reporting results after the close on 27 August and the US PCE report due on the morning of 29 August. The index has struggled to regain its losses after peaking on 13 August, facing stiff resistance just below the 61.8% retracement level at 23,670. In addition, the 10- and 20-day moving averages have proved to be sticking points, with the index unable to break away from either.
Momentum, as measured by the relative strength index, has also turned lower, forming a series of lower highs. Furthermore, a bearish divergence has emerged, with the RSI making lower highs while the Nasdaq 100 registered higher highs from the end of July through to mid-August.
Looking more closely, we see that the Nasdaq 100 had a straight-line rally on 22 August, and such rallies can sometimes be treated in a similar fashion to gaps. As a result, it is entirely possible that the index could give back its recent gains and fall back to 23,210, especially if it continues to struggle to surpass resistance at 23,620.
A breakout above 23,620 would be a bullish development despite a number of bearish signals. It would suggest the potential for the index to rise to 23,800 and possibly back to the previous highs.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
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