US100: Near All Time Highs, Weak FoundationThe Nasdaq 100 (US100) is hovering near all-time highs (~23,500), but signs of exhaustion are mounting. Momentum is fading, RSI is overstretched, and volume has been declining - all classic symptoms of a tired rally.
From a technical perspective, the index is pressing against upper trendline resistance after an aggressive multi-week run. Price action shows weakening follow-through on each new high, hinting at buyer fatigue. Best example was the huge sell-out last week.
Fundamentally, the rally is losing its foundation:
- Earnings surprises from Big Tech (Apple, Shopify) are already priced in.
- AI hype is cooling off, and valuation multiples remain extreme.
- Macro data (ISM Services, jobs) suggest economic softness.
- Fed rate cut hopes are baked in — any disappointment could trigger a sharp repricing.
Conclusion for me:
The Nasdaq looks ripe for a pullback.
We may possibly see a short spike above my drawn "upper resistance line" but I'm pretty convinced we won't see new ATH, - in my opinion it would be just a stop hunt.
If 23,000 then breaks, watch for acceleration toward 22,500 and beyond. The air is thin up here.
T1: 23250
T2: 23100
And if we get the break - I see T3 - 22250
One unpredictable variable, though? The world’s leaders.
Their "creative" decision-making has the power to nuke any technical setup.
Markets may follow charts and earnings - until a politician wakes up and chooses chaos.
No trading advice, just my ideas. :)
