Trade ideas
GER40 SHORT SETUPGER40 has broken the intermediate 2H trend line after facing rejection near its ATH.
The market remains bullish but a short term short is on the horizon now.
The 50EMA on the Daily provides strong support to this market. We wait for a Bearish sign on the LTF to enter our shorts our wait for a retest of our intermediate Trend line on the 2H and rejection to enter shorts. With out Target being 19600-19800.
DAX / GER40 analysisThe PEPPERSTONE:GER40 XETR:DAX has exhibited a consistent bullish trend in recent months, trading within an ascending channel on the weekly chart. However, on the daily chart, signs of exhaustion are emerging following significant upward moves, suggesting a potential short-term consolidation or correction.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance 1: 20,261 points
Resistance 2: 20,481 points
Support 1: 19,202 points
Support 2: 19,028 points
The daily RSI is hovering near the overbought zone, indicating the asset may be overvalued and vulnerable to a correction.
A potential distribution phase is noted, where institutional players might be taking profits after the recent rally, setting the stage for a possible reversal or sideways movement.
Relevant Fundamental Factors:
The German economy faces significant headwinds, with growth projected at just 0.1% for 2025 following two years of contraction. Additionally, the recent political crisis, marked by the collapse of the governing coalition, has heightened economic and political uncertainty in the country.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above the 20,261-point resistance with strong volume, it could target the next resistance at 20,481 points. To confirm the continuation of the uptrend, the RSI must remain at moderate levels, avoiding extreme overbought conditions.
Bearish Scenario: If the price breaches the 19,202-point support, it may accelerate toward the next support at 19,028 points or even the discount area. A declining RSI would reinforce this scenario, signaling increased selling pressure.
DAX // neutral zoneThe market has turned south, after reaching the weekly target fibo 200, with a daily wave, and then tested the last clean daily breakout, but couldn't close above it.
It's between a daily breakout and a daily breakdown, that makes it a neutral zone. Leaving this zone (up north there is a clean H4 breakdown that may stop the bulls) puts the market either in the primary long expansion phase, or the countertrend expansion.
The target of the former is the weekly target fibo 213.2, the short target is the monthly breakout.
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Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
Level colors:
Daily - blue
Weekly - purple
Monthly - magenta
H4 - aqua
Long trigger - green
Short trigger - red
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Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
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DE30EUR/GER30 "GERMANY 30" Indices Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
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however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 1H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Goal 🎯: 20700.0 (or) escape Before the Target
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Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️
Based on the fundamental analysis, I would conclude that the DE30EUR/GER30 "GERMANY 30" is: Bullish
Reasons:
Strong economic growth: Germany's economy is expected to grow at a rate of 1.8% in 2023, driven by a strong manufacturing sector, increasing business investment, and a rebound in the automotive industry.
Low unemployment rate: Germany's unemployment rate is at a historic low of 3.2%, which is expected to support consumer spending and economic growth.
Increasing corporate earnings: German companies are expected to report increasing earnings in 2023, driven by a strong global economy and a competitive euro.
Monetary policy support: The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept interest rates at a low level of 0.0%, which is expected to support borrowing and spending in the economy.
Fiscal policy support: The German government has announced a series of fiscal stimulus measures, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending, which are expected to support economic growth.
Bullish Factors:
Strong European economic growth, driven by strong consumer spending and investment.
Low interest rates, which can increase demand for stocks and reduce demand for bonds.
Potential for a rebound in the German economy, driven by a pickup in global trade and a resolution to trade tensions.
Growing investment demand for German stocks, driven by their potential for long-term growth and dividend yields.
Diversification benefits of investing in the German stock market, which can reduce portfolio risk and increase returns.
Some of the key stocks that make up the DE30EUR/GER30 index include:
SAP SE: A leading software company
Siemens AG: A leading industrial conglomerate
Bayer AG: A leading pharmaceutical company
Volkswagen AG: A leading automaker
Deutsche Bank AG: A leading financial institution
These stocks can have a significant impact on the performance of the DE30EUR/GER30 index, and investors should keep a close eye on their earnings and valuations when making investment decisions.
Market Sentiment:
Bullish sentiment: 75%
Bearish sentiment: 25%
Neutral sentiment: 0%
Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
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DAX 40 BULLISHWith rising record highs despite underlying economic and political challenges in Germany. I currently see an uptrend in motion for the DAX 40:
1.) Anticipation of lower Interest Rates from the ECB
2.) Strong Performance of leading companies such is Rheinmetall and Siemens and Deutsche Telekom
3.)Historical trends and Patters this time of year
GER40 - Short Setup My main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range.
But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower.
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
4-hr Germany 40: Getting Ready for 500 Points Increase The German DAX 40 saw impressive gains of over 1,500 points between mid-November and mid-December. However, following comments from the Fed, the index corrected nearly 800 points, reaching the crucial 50% Fibonacci retracement level. For the past three weeks, the DAX 40 has held above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, signaling that bulls may be regaining control.
Supporting this bullish outlook is today’s Golden Cross, a classic buy signal and an indicator of strong upward momentum. Based on this setup, we favor entering a buy position but will wait for a potential 100-point dip to secure a better risk-to-reward ratio.
Buying near 19,950 offers a strategic entry point, with a target set at December’s swing high of 20,450. This target aligns with the potential formation of a Double Top pattern, a critical resistance level. If the bullish momentum persists, this strategy positions us well for capitalizing on the DAX 40's upward trajectory.
Fri 2024 12 13 Long||| Stats |||
Stats Week:
** Mid Month Turn,
** US CPI: 14:30, - as expected,
** Thu EU GC 14:15:, - reduced as expected,
** Mon Morning rule, - yes,
** Tue return to W1 trend and not a W1 trend change, - yes
Stats Month:
** Christmas Rally - start Mid Nov. - yes bottom
** Christmas Rally - US election year, start Dec. - yes
Stats Year:
** US Election,
||| Trade Taken |||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H3
** Time:
* 03pm,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* Momentum Long,
* Mon Morning rule,
* Tue return to W1 trend - UP,
* Senti, - P16,
** Mom Width:
* 6 candles - med/strong,
** Mom Type:
* 3rd directional - risk at last Mom turn,
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* last Mom Turn,
** Target:
* R 1:1 as at ATH,
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
Analysis
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Germany 40 maintains its bullish correction phase, currently trading at 19,937, below the VWAP (20) of 20,121. Support is positioned at 19,680, while resistance is at 20,562. The RSI at 50 reflects neutral momentum, indicating a pause in the prior uptrend.
UK 100 index remains neutral within its long-lasting consolidation phase, trading at 8,218, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 8,183. Support is at 8,040, with resistance at 8,326. An RSI of 55 signals moderate momentum, hinting at slight bullish tendencies within the range.
Wall Street is in a bullish correction phase, trading at 42,375, below the VWAP (20) of 43,064. Support is located at 41,941, with resistance at 44,188. The RSI at 32 suggests oversold conditions, potentially signaling a reversal higher.
Brent Crude has finally flipped from its sideways range into a new bullish impulsive phase, trading at 7,642, above the VWAP (20) of 7,361. Support is at 7,144, while resistance is at 7,578. The RSI at 70 indicates overbought momentum, suggesting near term caution for further upside.
Gold remains neutral in a consolidation phase, trading at 2,658. It has just broken back over the VWAP (20) of 2,635, which has defined the top of a short-term range. Support is at 2,574, and resistance is at 2,695. The RSI at 55 shows balanced momentum with a new bullish tilt, but still consistent with the ongoing range-bound market.
EUR/USD remains very bearish with euro-dollar parity coming into view. It is in an impulsive phase, trading at 1.0267, below the VWAP (20) of 1.0428 . Support is at 1.0297, with resistance at 1.0559. The RSI at 28 highlights oversold conditions, suggesting potential downside exhaustion.
GBP/USD is in a bearish impulsive phase, breaking down below a rising trendline drawn by Autotrend trading at 1.2380, below the VWAP (20) of 1.2589. Support is positioned at 1.2416, with resistance at 1.2761. The RSI at 30 indicates bearish momentum, with the oversold level consistent with a strong downtrend.
USD/JPY continues its bullish impulsive phase, trading at 157.35, above the November high and the VWAP (20) of 155.76. Support is at 151.82, with resistance at 159.70. The RSI at 62 reflects strong upward momentum, supporting the bullish trend.
DAX: Watch 20100-20200 Resistance For A Sell-offThe German DAX is trading slowly for the last few days, here beneath the 20,000 level, which clearly acts as a strong resistance zone. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if more liquidations occur slightly higher, around the 20,100 mark. Because what I’m observing is a minor triangle within current recovery, and these patterns are typically in the middle of smaller trends. This suggests that we might still be missing one final leg in wave B to complete the recovery from December 20th low. After that, a strong bearish reversal could still show up on the DAX, possibly sometime this week.
Be prepared and aware of the potential for a deeper correction ahead.
GH















