US100 25300 is the break point imoCommunity discussions
US100 25300 is the break point imo
US100 also worth noting something I’m seeing. Is a lot of the dumping is through Asian and London session. Wall Street is buying. Which makes me lean more bullish. Today will be the telling sign if we get absobrition again during New York session and close above 25650. To me that’s big players buying and foreign selling . Add the incoming liquidity and we could rocket 🚀NDX Hopefully this post will give insight on where we are and the key levels.Breakdown of the patterns, key levels, and bias based on the data visible from Nov 19th to Dec 12th.
The Box Pattern: High-Level Value Acceptance
The most striking pattern in this timeframe is the shift from a Trend Phase Nov 19 – Dec 1 to a Balance/Box Phase Dec 3 – Dec 12.
The Trend Phase Nov 19 – Dec 1:The market moved vertically with impulsive buying. Delta Support, You can see massive positive delta injections, specifically on Nov 21 +257M and Dec 1 +196M. These were initiation days where buyers aggressively lifted the offer.
POC Migration, The Point of Control POC—the price level with the most volume migrated cleanly upwards: 24,050 to 24,250 to 24,850 to 25,350. This is a healthy uptrend signature.
The Box Phase Dec 3 – Dec 12 :Since December 3rd, the market has entered a consolidation box between roughly 25,500 and 25,800.
The Sticky POC, Look at the bottom row labeled POC. For almost the entire recent period (Dec 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11/12), the POC has been glued to 25,650.00.Meaning The market has decided that 25,650 is currently Fair Value.
Both buyers and sellers are comfortable transacting here, creating a massive high-volume node
Delta Analysis & Breakdown The Delta (the difference between aggressive buying and aggressive selling) reveals a battle inside the box.
The Whale Fight Dec 5 vs. Dec 10
Dec 5 Green: Huge buying pressure with +268M Delta. Buyers tried to break out but couldn't sustain momentum immediately.
Dec 10 Red: Huge selling pressure with -208M Delta (one of the largest negative deltas on the chart).
The Critical Clue: Despite the massive selling on Dec 10 -208M, the price did not collapse. It stayed within the box. When you see heavy selling but price refuses to go down i.e Absorption, it is often a bullish signal.
The Recovery Last Candle - Dec 11
The last candle shows a Delta of +176M. This effectively negates the selling from the previous large red candle.
The market absorbed the sellers and immediately rotated back up to the top of the value area.
Key Levels Based on the volume nodes (POC) and delta clusters.
The Magnet Neutral/Pivot: 25,650 This is the pivotal point. Price is oscillating around this level. If we are above it, bulls are in control. Below it, bears have a chance.
Major Support Buy Zone: 25,350This was the breakout POC from Dec 1. If the current box fails, this is the first logical defense level for buyers.
Major Resistance Sell Zone: 25,800 + The tops of the wicks in the current box. Buyers have struggled to hold price above this level despite the +268M delta day
MY Bias
My Bias: Bullish with Caution
Reasoning: The market is in an uptrend that has paused to build energy. The key bullish tell is the absorption of the Dec 10th selling. Sellers threw -208M delta at the market, and the very next day/session, buyers reversed it with +176M delta, closing back above the 25,650 POC.
The Trap is that The box creates a chop environment. The market is waiting for a trigger to leave the 25,650. As long as the daily close remains above this POC at 25650, the probability favours a breakout to new highs targeting 26k+. If we start closing daily candles below 25,550 the bottom of the recent value, the bias flips to a correction toward 25,350 and below.
US100 I am expected a black friday tbh, given Oracle and Broadcom are signalling slow down and running out of cash tooGold is running high usually a warning sign ?
NASDAQ So done some analysis on this weeks moves seems the volume has dropped considerably here, weak volume means a lack of big bullish or bearish moves. The last big move was from Friday 21st November finishing last week, it also explains why it has been ranging around so much. To me looks like the big boys are either happy to sit on these prices or will slowly take profits. This indicator shows to me the dark colours where there where a lot of moves and this week shows none so far.
US100 will take a long at this. 61.8 fibretracment from low to high forming HL on the 1Hr SL just below 76.8 fib. targetting poc first at 25650 then yesterdays high. lets see how this plays out today. will scalp most of NY session and let this trade run its course.
USTECH100CFD If the big money would want to get out of tech so urgently, we would have already corrected down 10% and not float around the ath. The sell of from 3 weeks ago got bought up pretty quick also. I think they are just waiting for cathalysts and arguments to buy more and drive the prices higher. Am I wrong here?
NAS100USD on the daily, tradingview.com/x/pbGPqaw8/ I have removed the intermediate layers from this FIB but built a descending channel, same caveats as the one I showed a few weeks back which got invalidated. Ideally you would want to see a low on a daily before showing one. I am not suggesting this is going down.
US100 Accumulate, manipulate thenn....Distribution to the ATH
NAS100USD on the 5Min, I got a sense that the price wants to balance up to around 25600 and 21ema, which 0.5 of the FIB on my chart below, the bottom of the green box is yesterday's low, the top of the red, is high . the straight black line is 1000 ematradingview.com/x/ge1yJfar/
