Trade ideas
Reversal From ATH, Momentum Turns Cautious Reversal From ATH, Momentum Turns Cautious
The NASDAQ reversed from its all-time high and remains below 26,175, signaling short-term bearish momentum.
➡️ Below 26,175: Bearish bias toward 25,890 → 25,700 → 25,340.
➡️ Above 26,245: Bullish continuation toward 26,500 → 26,850.
Pivot POINT: 26,175
Support: 25,890 · 25,700 · 25,340
Resistance: 26,500 · 26,850 · 27,000
USNAS100 remains bearish while below 26,175, but a 1H close above 26,245 would confirm a bullish breakout toward higher targets.
Nasdaq Holds Below the 26,300-ResistanceHaving broken above the 26,000 mark, the Nasdaq has also moved beyond the upper boundary of a channel respected since July 2025, now trading within the duplicated (parallel) channel structure.
The mid-zone of this duplicated channel represents initial resistance near 26,300, and a confirmed breakout above this level could extend gains toward the upper boundary near 26,800.
On the downside, a move back below 25,700 could trigger a sharper pullback toward 25,400, with additional support near 25,200. The daily RSI continues to diverge negatively from price action, signaling caution near current record highs.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
NAS100 Trade Set Up Oct 30 2025Price is making LH/LL on the 15m and 1h so i am bearish but first i either want to see a pullback into 1h CISD to then look for internal structure to continue down but if price first sweep PDL and/or EQL, i will look for short buys back up before looking for sells back down
US100 Breaks Out as Trade Optimism and Fed Expectations Fuel MomUS100 Breaks Out as Trade Optimism and Fed Expectations Fuel Momentum
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump said that the US and China will reach a deal.
US President Donald Trump said that the US and China are ready to "reach" a trade deal, as he is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week in South Korea during his Asia tour.
This decision gave the market a breather and increased optimism about an improvement in business sentiment. The indices came out of consolidation to create new record highs.
US100 has already reached 25670 and looks set to rise further as shown in the chart with targets:
25900; 26400 and 26700
This week, the FED is also expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4% from 4.25%.
These expectations should help indices to rise further
US100 may test 25300 again before moving further. So, take note of this.
However, so far, US100 remains strong, and this momentum could continue to grow further.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
two scenarios for NQ on October I currently have two scenarios for NASDAQ, and both are bearish.
Scenario 1: The downtrend has already started. If we see a pullback around the 0.5 Fibonacci level, I’ll look to short again and keep stacking sell positions
Scenario 2: NASDAQ might retest the previous high — the one where the sharp drop started — move sideways for a while, and then start another leg down.
P.S. Success depends on proper risk management.
#NASDAQ #NASDAQ100
NAS100Bearish Divergence formed in 1hr
SL (Stop Loss): 26,315
This is just above the recent swing high — it protects your trade if the price keeps rising instead of dropping.
Entry: 25,895
This is the suggested sell (short) entry level — price is expected to move down after breaking below this level, confirming the reversal.
TP (Take Profit): 25,485
This is the target level, where you can close your trade for profit if the price falls as expected.
Position Sizing: The Math That Separates Winners from LosersMost traders blow up their accounts not because of bad entries, but because of terrible position sizing. You can have a 60% win rate and still go broke if you risk too much per trade.
The 1-2% Rule (And Why It Works)
Never risk more than 1-2% of your account on a single trade.
Here's why this matters:
Risk 2% per trade → You can survive 50 consecutive losses
Risk 10% per trade → 10 losses = -65% drawdown (you need +186% just to break even)
Risk 20% per trade → 5 losses = game over
The Position Sizing Formula
Position Size = (Account Size × Risk %) / (Entry Price - Stop Loss)
Real Example:
Account: $10,000
Risk per trade: 2% = $200
Entry: $50
Stop loss: $48
Risk per share: $2
Position Size = $200 / $2 = 100 shares
If stopped out → You lose exactly $200 (2%)
If price hits $54 → You make $400 (4% gain, 2:1 R/R)
Different Risk Frameworks
Conservative (1% risk)
Best for: Beginners, volatile markets, high-frequency trading
Survivability: Can take 100+ losses
Growth: Slower but steady
Moderate (2% risk)
Best for: Experienced traders, tested strategies
Survivability: 50 consecutive losses
Growth: Balanced risk/reward
Aggressive (3-5% risk)
Best for: High conviction setups, smaller accounts trying to grow
Survivability: 20-33 losses
Growth: Faster but dangerous
Warning: Never go above 5% unless you're gambling, not trading.
The Kelly Criterion (Advanced)
For traders with significant backtested data:
Kelly % = Win Rate -
Example:
Win rate: 55%
Avg win: $300
Avg loss: $200
Win/Loss ratio: 1.5
Kelly % = 0.55 - = 0.55 - 0.30 = 25%
But use 1/4 Kelly (6.25%) or 1/2 Kelly (12.5%) - Full Kelly is too aggressive for real markets.
Common Position Sizing Mistakes
❌ Revenge trading larger after a loss
✅ Keep position size constant based on current account value
❌ Risking the same dollar amount regardless of setup quality
✅ Risk 0.5% on B-setups, 2% on A+ setups
❌ Ignoring correlation risk
✅ If you have 5 tech stocks open, you're really risking 10% on one sector
❌ Not adjusting after drawdowns
✅ If account drops 20%, your 2% risk should recalculate from new balance
The Volatility Adjustment
In high volatility (VIX > 30):
Cut position sizes by 30-50%
Widen stops or risk less per trade
Market can gap past your stops
In low volatility (VIX < 15):
Can use normal position sizing
Tighter stops possible
More predictable price action
My Personal Framework
I use a tiered approach:
High conviction setups (A+): 2% risk
Good setups (A): 1.5% risk
Decent setups (B): 1% risk
Experimental/learning: 0.5% risk
Maximum combined risk: Never more than 6% across all open positions.
The Bottom Line
Position sizing is the only thing you have complete control over in trading. You can't control:
Where price goes
Market volatility
News events
But you CAN control how much you risk.
The traders who survive long enough to get good are the ones who master position sizing first.
What's your current risk per trade? Drop it in the comments. If it's above 5%, we need to talk.
NAS100 Bearish Setup | Momentum Weakness Detected before FOMCNAS100 is showing early signs of a potential reversal after a strong bullish rally. Price action has formed a bearish divergence on the RSI — with price making higher highs while RSI prints lower highs — signaling fading momentum among buyers.
Volume has also declined during the recent upswing, suggesting weak participation in the continuation move and potential exhaustion near the recent top. A sell setup is active with the stop loss marked in red above the previous high to protect against false breakouts, while the target zone highlighted in green aligns with the next structural support and volume-based demand area.
A decisive close below near-term support would confirm bearish intent and open the path toward the target zone. Traders should monitor momentum indicators for confirmation of sustained weakness before continuation.
US NAS 100Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
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USNAS100 ForecastThe US100 chart shows strong bullish momentum, breaking above key resistance levels. Price is expected to retrace slightly toward the 25,750–25,500 support zone before resuming its upward move toward the 26,400–26,500 target area. Overall trend remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows formation.
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NASDAQ Index Analysis (US100)The NASDAQ index continues its strong bullish trend, currently trading near a new all-time high around 26,140.
📉 A minor correction is expected toward the 26,000 support zone.
If the price breaks and holds below this level, a further decline toward 25,800 is likely.
📈 However, if the price bounces from 26,000, the index may retest the recent high or even create a new record high.
💡 Key Trading Levels:
✅ Buy: On confirmed bounce from 26,000 or 25,800.
🔻 Sell: Below 26,000 after confirmation.
NAS100: Threshold Analysis & Decision FrameworkNAS100: Threshold Analysis & Decision Framework | November 12
Reference Point: 25,625 | 08:45 UTC+4
MARKET PREMISE
The Nasdaq 100 has stabilized within a confined bandwidth, presenting traders with a defined set of bifurcated outcomes. The micro-structure reveals a market in the midst of accumulation, where directional bias remains contested between competing institutional flows.
TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT MATRIX
Primary Trend (Dow Theory Lens): Uptrend remains intact; lower-bound support at 25,500 preserves bullish structure. Failure to maintain this floor signals potential regime shift.
Pattern Development: A Symmetrical Triangle is in formation across the 1H/4H timeframes. Contraction suggests breakout imminent—directional confirmation required.
Elliott Wave Interpretation: Wave IV consolidation underway. Upon completion, Wave V upleg anticipated toward fresh resistance territories.
Harmonic Configuration: Potential bearish Bat pattern exists if price recedes; conversely, completion of bullish Crab pattern supports upside continuation above 25,750.
INDICATOR CONFLUENCE TABLE
| Indicator | Timeframe | Status | Signal |
|-----------|-----------|--------|--------|
| Ichimoku Kumo | 4H | Price-Kumo Contact | Neutral-to-Bullish |
| RSI(14) | 4H | ~50 Median | Energy Stored |
| VWAP Proximity | Intraday | At Fair Value | Equilibrium |
| EMA(50) Stack | 1H | Bullish Alignment | Support Intact |
| Bollinger Squeeze | 30M | Band Tightening | Volatility Expansion Pending |
OPERATIONAL TRADE MATRIX
Bullish Engagement (Primary):
- Activation: Hourly close above 25,700 (Triangle apex breakout)
- Entry Coordination: 25,720–25,750
- Protective Stop: 25,580
- Profit Sequencing: 25,900 (T1) → 26,150 (T2)
- Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.4
Bearish Contingency (Secondary):
- Activation: Sustained close below 25,500 (Foundation breach)
- Entry Coordination: 25,480–25,450
- Protective Stop: 25,650
- Profit Sequencing: 25,250 (T1) → 25,000 (T2)
- Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:1.8
GANN TEMPORAL OVERLAY
Key cyclical windows on the 4D chart suggest consolidation resolution within the 12–15 hour window. Volume profile at the 25,650 level indicates potential liquidity pool; breakouts through this zone warrant heightened position management.
TRADE DIRECTIVE: Await breakout confirmation with concurrent volume expansion. Triangle compression suggests potential catalytic move. Disciplined position-sizing essential given binary outcome structure.






















