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Ibovespa (USD) Futures

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Mini índice BOVESPA quer voltar para os 130,000 para cair forteMini BOVESPA index seems to want to return to the region of 130,000 points on the daily chart despite strong sell signals on the weekly, indicating a possible pullback for an even stronger fall towards 112,560 points where the point of control has been located since 2005. In this region of the point of control there will be a reaction possibly up to the region of 120,000 points again and then moving towards the final target between 92,000 and 90,000 points.
BMFBOVESPA:WIN1!
by Miketubarao
My Analisys Under the Wave Princilpe at Bovespa Mini Futures Summary on the Elliott Wave Principle Theory Applied to the Ibovespa Index The Elliott Wave Principle is a form of technical analysis used to predict financial market trends by identifying repetitive patterns in market prices, known as "waves." Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, this theory is based on the belief that market prices move in predictable cycles or waves driven by investor psychology and crowd behavior. In the context of the Ibovespa Index, the Elliott Wave Theory can be applied to understand market cycles, helping traders and investors identify potential turning points and trends in the Brazilian stock market. The theory posits that a complete market cycle consists of five waves in the direction of the primary trend (impulse waves) followed by three corrective waves in the opposite direction. So by the way, i wanted to share with you this Analisys I've made based on a Logarithimic scale* of the Ibovespa Index Using Elliott Wave Theory Current Market Structure: Impulse Waves (1-5): The Ibovespa Index has been exhibiting a clear five-wave structure upward, aligning with the broader bullish trend in the Brazilian market. Wave 1 initiated the uptrend, with subsequent waves 3 and 5 showing strong momentum, which is typical in a growing market. Corrective Waves (A-C): After completing the five-wave impulse pattern, the index is likely to undergo a corrective phase. The corrective waves, labeled A, B, and C, generally retrace a portion of the previous five-wave move. Key Levels and Projections: Wave 1: Initiation of the bullish trend, with key support levels at 120,000 points. Wave 2: Correction phase, retracing at the calssical -61,8% portion of Wave 1. Wave 3: The strongest and most extended wave, propelling the index above 138,000 points. Wave 4: by the alternance Guideline, we may have a shallow correction, maintaining support above the 133,000-point mark and a high probability that dont exceed to much the -38,2% region of wave 3. there is a hight probability that we will correct by time not price, that is, based on the law of alternation, we can stay in a correction for at least 20 or 30 days, until we finish wave 4. Wave 5: Final impulse, based on the fibonnacci relationship, wave 5 use to have a 61,8% to 161,8% of the size of wave 1 on the same circle, potentially driving the index betwin 145,000 and 152,000 points. I make a disclaimer here, if some war or pandemic scnario resurge or scale, it may interrupt w5, making a trunkaed ou fail to top, ande if it resurge in wave 4 the next wave, we culd see a deep correction braking -61,8% the wave 3, maybe more, but the alternance guideline will be intact, becouse the correction will take a lot of time. Investment Implications: Short-Term Outlook: Traders should be cautious as the Ibovespa enters the corrective phase. Selling pressure might increase, providing opportunities for short positions or profit-taking on long trades. Long-Term Outlook: Despite the upcoming correction, the overall bullish trend remains intact. Investors should consider accumulating positions at key support levels during the correction, anticipating a resumption of the uptrend after the corrective waves conclude. Conclusion: The Elliott Wave analysis of the Ibovespa Index suggests that while a correction may be imminent, the long-term outlook remains positive. Investors and traders should closely monitor the wave structure and key support levels to make informed decisions during the correction phase. The theory provides a framework for anticipating market moves and managing risk in a structured manne
BMFBOVESPA:WIN1!
by DanielLRibeiro
Divergence Unveiled: Ibovespa & S&P500“Emerging markets conclude 2023 on better note than developed markets” – S&P Global Market Intelligence. How much of this has been reflected in the respective market indices? Figure 1: Ibovespa and E-mini S&P500 Index Futures Figure 1 presents a retrospective view of the Ibovespa Index Futures (IND1!) and E-mini S&P500 Index Futures (ES1!) since the onset of the pandemic. While the indices initially traded in tandem, a noticeable deviation emerged since the middle of 2021. The IND Futures to ES Futures ratio testing long-term resistance at 25 raises questions about a potential rebound or breakout to the downside. Let's delve into the methodologies of these two index futures to gain insights into their recent divergence. Index Methodology and Weightings Figure 2: Top 10 Constituents of Both Indices Examining the top 10 constituents of both indices in Figure 2, we observe fundamental differences. Despite their similarities as float-weighted benchmarks for large-cap stocks in their respective countries, the Ibovespa Index comprises 86 stocks compared to the SP500's 500. This fundamental distinction results in a significantly larger total weight for the top 10 constituents of the Ibovespa Index, suggesting that IND future prices are more susceptible to the performance of its leading components. Ibovespa Driven by Global Commodity Prices Figure 3: Ibovespa vs Brent Crude Oil, Nickel, and Iron Ore Dominated by the Energy, Financials and Basic Materials sector, the combined weight of VALE SA and PETROBRAS holds significant influence. While VALE SA is the largest producer of iron ore and nickel in the world, PETROBRAS is heavily involved in the petroleum industry. Their earnings are likely to increase following an increase in the traded prices of iron ore, nickel, and crude oil, respectively. Positive correlations with Nickel, Iron Ore, and Crude Oil Futures prices indicate periods marked in grey boxes since the pandemic, where fluctuations in commodity futures potentially explain observed patterns in IND prices. Figure 4: Global Commodity Index Hence, given IND1!'s demonstrated sensitivity to commodities, understanding the general trajectory of commodities becomes paramount. The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) provides an overview for commodities. In Figure 4, the GSCI acts as a good proxy for the commodities cycle and direction, here we observe a 30% correction from the peak, erasing some of the gains derived from the post-pandemic recovery and the Russia-Ukraine war. However, since the beginning of 2024 we see signs of a potential trend higher with the index starting to creep higher. Figure 5: Bullish Trends Observed on Multiple Commodities Is this just part of the usual price volatility for commodities or is the move higher significant? A detailed scrutiny of recent price movements in Figure 5 reveals a bullish outlook for all three previously examined commodities, relevant especially to the Ibovespa Index. The breakout from an ascending triangle in Brent Crude Oil Futures, the price rebound from historical support in Nickel Futures, and the testing of the upside trendline in Iron Ore Futures collectively indicate a prevailing bullish bias, perhaps suggesting more to the broader move higher for commodities. Are Lower Rates Better? Figure 6: Changes in Rates and USDBRL on Ibovespa The Financial Sector, with significant weight in the index, is examined. While higher interest rates expand profit margins of financial institutions, extended periods of tight monetary policy can expose vulnerabilities and increase loan losses. Since August 2023, Brazil’s Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee, Copom, has had five consecutive rate cutes up to a cumulative total of 250 basis points while the market continues to alter bets on the Fed’s first rate cut. Intriguingly, while interest rate parity would suggest a strengthening USDBRL, the observed weakening suggests a unique deviation. Furthermore, as the Fed gains more confidence, evidenced by each data print, the likelihood of impending rate cuts becomes more apparent. Conversely, the outlook for further cuts by Copom is less clear due to persistently high inflation. Interpreting these factors collectively points towards a weaker USDBRL and a correspondingly stronger IND1!; as suggested by the historical inverse relationship between Ibovespa and USDBRL observed in Figure 6. Additional Support for Ibovespa Figure 7: Brazil’s Growing Net Exports The rolling average of the net exports, although exhibiting some degrees of seasonality, seems to be a leading indicator of the IND prices. The reversal and positive trend in the rolling average of net exports since 2015 aligns with the climbing IND prices, indicating substantial support from Brazil's trade balance. EM Still an Attractive Option Figure 8: Comparing Both Index Futures’ RSI Figure 8 brings to light yet another noteworthy point, using the ES1! as a proxy for the Developed Markets (DM) and the IND1! as a proxy for Emerging Markets (EM), we see the DM significantly overbought relatively to the EM. Hence, we argue that there is further room for the EM Index to grow. Putting into Practice Figure 9: Setting up the Trade Looking at a shorter timeline, Figure 9 unfolds a compelling narrative marked by a recent decisive breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This breakout, coupled with the notable reversal in commodity prices, Brazil’s improving balance of trade, a weaker USDBRL, and the RSI not yet overbought; we lean bullish on the IND1!. To express this view, we can long the Ibovespa Index April 2024 Futures (INDJ4) at the current price level of 129,070. • We can set the take profit by adding the difference between the neckline and the bottom of the head (24,695), to the neckline (121,980). This puts our take profit at 146,675 and a hypothetical gain of: 146,675 – 129,070 = 17,605 points. • Likewise, we can set the stop loss at the neckline (121,980), which brings us a hypothetical maximum loss of: 129,070 – 121,980 = 7,090 points. • Each point is equivalent to 1 BRL. Overall In summary, understanding the intricate dynamics between global commodity prices, monetary policies, and trade balances provides valuable insights for anticipating the trajectory of the Ibovespa Index Futures in the evolving financial landscape.
BMFBOVESPA:IND1!Long
by inspirante
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