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Euro Under Pressure as Dollar Dominance and Economic Worries WeiOver the past two weeks, the Euro futures have experienced significant downward pressure, struggling to hold ground against a strengthening U.S. Dollar. One driver of this depreciation has been a marked divergence in monetary policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve. While the Fed has maintained a hawkish stance, signaling higher-for-longer interest rates supported by resilient U.S. economic data, the ECB has appeared more cautious, with recent eurozone economic indicators hinting at a potential slowdown. This widening interest rate differential makes the Euro less attractive to yield-seeking investors, leading to capital flows away from the single currency and into the Dollar.
Adding to the Euro's woes, recent economic reports from key eurozone members have painted a picture of subdued growth and persistent inflationary challenges, creating a difficult balancing act for the ECB. Traders in FX futures have actively priced in these concerns, pushing the Euro to test critical support levels against the Dollar. This dynamic underscores how intertwined global economic performance and central bank rhetoric are in shaping currency valuations within the futures market, with the Euro's path heavily dependent on both domestic economic recovery signals and the evolving strength of the mighty U.S. Dollar.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
EUR/USD Running Flat Near CompletionAbout the Asset
Micro EUR/USD Futures on the CME are a smaller version of the standard EUR/USD futures contract. They move exactly like the EUR/USD currency pair, which reflects how strong or weak the Euro is compared to the US Dollar. Because the Dollar sits at the centre of the global financial system, the movements in this pair carry broader meaning. Traders often use EUR/USD as a guide to understand shifts in global liquidity and risk appetite.
Why This Chart Matters
A rising EUR/USD usually means the Dollar is weakening. When the Dollar weakens, financial conditions soften and risk assets often find support. A falling EUR/USD usually means the Dollar is strengthening, which can tighten liquidity and add pressure on equities and other risk-sensitive markets. Tracking this currency pair helps identify where global sentiment may turn next.
Relationship With SPX500
EUR/USD and the SPX500 tend to move in similar directions because both respond to the strength of the Dollar. When the Dollar strengthens, EUR/USD drops and the SPX500 often struggles. When the Dollar weakens, EUR/USD rises and the SPX500 usually recovers. The comparison on this chart shows how both markets have been moving through similar cycles. This helps confirm whether a turning point in EUR/USD is also likely to influence equities.
Elliott Wave Structure
From the early part of the chart, the pair completed a clear five-wave advance, ending near 1.1890. After this high, the market moved into a three-wave A-B-C correction. Wave A ended at 1.1420. Wave B then bounced strongly and briefly moved above the start of Wave A, which is a typical sign of a running flat structure.
Wave C has been weak and overlapping, which fits the behaviour of an ending diagonal. Diagonals often show slowing momentum and choppy swings, and they tend to appear at the end of a corrective pattern. Importantly, Wave C has not broken below the Wave A low at 1.1420. This supports the running flat idea, where the final leg fails to make a new low.
Key Levels
The level at 1.1420 is the invalidation point for the bullish running flat structure. As long as price stays above this level, the market retains the potential to complete Wave C and turn higher. The area around 1.1500 to 1.1520 has already shown some reaction, hinting that the diagonal may be complete or close to completing.
A break above the downward-sloping trendline that has contained the recent decline would be the first sign of strength. A stronger confirmation would come if price moves above the high of the internal Wave (4) within C.
What I Expect
If the running flat interpretation is correct, the market may bounce before testing the 1.1420 low. Ending diagonals are known for turning early, and failed C-waves are common in this pattern. A recovery from the current zone would align with the SPX500 pullback slowing down as well. Both assets would then be in a position to move higher together if the Dollar’s strength eases.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
EURUSD long with the most obvious signals.This is a dream of a longshot. What better time than now, when so much is happening in the world and the price has retested the support already, to dream? When the trend is poised to spring up after a retraction, the eventuality is on the buyers. We need the price back up to sell it again.
FX Futures: Dollar Strength Prevails Amidst Shifting Global TideOver the past two weeks, the FX futures landscape has been largely dominated by a resurgent U.S. Dollar, creating distinct trends across major currency pairs. The Dollar Index futures have shown a clear upward trajectory, fueled by a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve, robust U.S. economic data, and a persistent belief that interest rates will remain higher for longer. This Dollar strength has put significant pressure on its counterparts. Euro futures struggled to maintain ground, testing key support levels as eurozone economic indicators hinted at a potential slowdown, making the ECB's less hawkish stance more pronounced. Similarly, British Pound futures faced headwinds, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and growth in the UK.
Beyond the majors, Japanese Yen futures continued their multi-week slide, extending losses as the Bank of Japan remained steadfast in its ultra-loose monetary policy, creating a widening interest rate differential with the U.S. On the other hand, Canadian Dollar futures showed a bit more resilience, benefiting from a relatively stable oil market and domestic economic data that provided some support. Traders across the board are keenly watching central bank commentary and upcoming inflation prints, as these will likely dictate whether the Dollar's reign continues unchallenged or if other currencies can find a catalyst for a reversal in the weeks ahead.
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
USD Index Proxy: EURUSD Breakout to Validate T-Note & XAGUSD MovThe Core Thesis: The Euro Futures chart, which is the mirror image of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is consolidating in a Symmetrical Triangle pattern. The direction of the inevitable breakout will be the ultimate fundamental driver for the Silver ATH move and the T-Note's wedge break. This chart holds the key to the macro move.
Technical Snapshot: The Symmetrical Triangle
The Pattern: The daily chart shows a clear Symmetrical Triangle formed since mid-2025, characterized by converging trendlines (lower highs and higher lows). This pattern signals indecision but precedes a high-momentum directional move.
Key Levels: The price is hovering near a critical support zone around 1.15000 and just above a major long-term EMA (shown in pink/red).
Trendline Breakouts:
Bullish Breakout: A decisive close above the upper trendline and the resistance around 1.16840 would confirm a move higher.
Bearish Breakdown: A close below the lower trendline and the major support cluster around 1.14300 - 1.15000 would confirm a move lower.
Next week 6E(EURUSD) BearishNext week’s price outlook appears bearish.
Market structure shows a clear downtrend following the confirmed break of the previous swing low.
Price is expected to retrace into the FVG before continuing lower toward the downside FVG.
The FVG is untapped. We have to watch the major support area . if the area broke, price has higher chance to reach the below FVG
The FVG below is a high-probability area, as five liquidity lows are positioned directly above it.
EUR/USD: Local Selling OpportunityTechnical Situation
EUR/USD shows an interesting local setup. The price has tested a key resistance level twice, which has proven its strength and halted the upward movement.
Current Picture
Currently, the quotes are located at a high-volume zone, where sellers' reaction to the decline is already visible. This could be a signal for entering short positions.
Alternative Scenario
A scenario where the price makes another move higher—towards the next volume zone—is not ruled out. In this case, selling opportunities will become even more relevant with an improved risk/reward ratio.
Entry Points
Selling is relevant:
From current levels
Upon updating local highs followed by a pullback
Additional Context
The presented analysis reflects the local picture. To understand the broader situation on EUR/USD, I recommend checking my previous publications.
Important: Don't forget to monitor the Dollar Index (DXY) dynamics, as it directly affects EUR/USD movement.
Euro Sentiment: What’s Ahead in the Next Few DaysRetail positioning tells a clear story:
70% short / 30% long on EUR/USD
→ That’s a textbook setup for a long .
The crowd is bearish — but structure favors bulls.
From a technical standpoint, we’re seeing a solid corrective move up from 1.15, with even a mini-higher high – higher low pattern forming — yes, like the ones in classic TA textbooks.
It looks not just logical… but inviting.
Now let’s look at the options market:
There’s real bullish momentum building:
1. Naked calls being bought
2. Call spreads actively traded
My focus is on two key structures:
First, the call at 1.165, entered on November 6 — now already in the money (#1 at chart)
Friday’s straddle at 1.1575 — its upper boundary aligns perfectly with the trigger level from October 29 (#2 at chart)
🎯 Confluence? Yes.
🔍 Putting It All Together:
We have fuel for further upside in EUR:
Retail overcrowded short
Technical structure improving
Options flow turning bullish
But resistance looms ahead:
1.1649 and up to 1.1683 (futures prices) are strong zones
These levels could cap the upside move and offer high-probability short setups
👉 In particular, 1.1649 stands out as an ideal zone to consider a short.
On Monday, I’ll calculate the Expected Range (ER) levels — and if it aligns with this resistance, I’ll definitely place a limit order here.
Not using ER levels yet?
Spend one minute learning them — and gain the edge most traders overlook.
EUR/USD – Short-Term Structural Continuation SetupGlobal Macro Context
The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a neutral–dovish stance, showing no urgency to cut rates.
With no COT Report and no major updates on monetary policy this week, the macro narrative remains unchanged.
We also didn’t have the JOLTS release, and we’re unlikely to have Payroll data tomorrow due to the ongoing government shutdown.
This absence of labor data makes it difficult for Fed members to justify any near-term rate cut.
Hence, monetary expectations remain stable, supporting a relatively firm U.S. dollar in the short run.
Market Structure & Price Action
From a long-term perspective, EUR/USD remains in a bullish structure.
We recently saw a bearish failed auction inside a long-term demand zone, with buyers successfully producing a short-term structural shift (CHoCH) to the upside.
Price had moved outside the Value Area (VA) of the previous medium- and long-term impulses —
a typical condition for retracement. Several inefficiencies were left behind,
so the current upward correction is consistent with restoring balance.
However, the medium-term structure is still bearish and dominant,
and when sellers react from upper supply zones, they’ll likely attempt to violate the current short-term bullish structure and realign the broader framework to bearish —
consistent with the slower monetary transition implied by the Fed’s stance.
At the moment, the focus remains on aligning with the short-term bullish bias,
and reassessing near the vPOC of the medium-term VA,
where renewed selling pressure could emerge.
Volume & Order Flow Analysis
The demand zones within the current short-term dealing range were validated by strong confluence:
Technical discount (retracement toward 75%),
Positive Delta Cluster (confirming buyer aggression at discount),
VWAP alignment (institutional mean reversion level).
The lower demand zone corresponds to the accumulation base that originated this entire move —
the true institutional demand, where the bulk of long positions were established and will likely be defended.
The upper demand represents a reaccumulation leg,
where price overlapped a previous supply that failed to hold —
the moment sellers lost control and bullish momentum accelerated.
Outlook
Tomorrow would normally bring COT and Payroll,
but due to the ongoing U.S. shutdown, no major macro data is expected.
Therefore, price action will likely depend on order flow and continuation dynamics,
especially around VWAP and the short-term demand zones.
The plan remains to trade in alignment with the short-term bullish structure,
focusing on continuation entries as long as demand holds and Delta confirms sustained buying aggression.
Euro on the DeclineThe recent decline in Euro futures is fundamentally driven by the widening monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, combined with sustained U.S. Dollar strength. While both central banks have battled inflation, the Fed is largely perceived as maintaining a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment to ensure price stability, keeping U.S. bond yields attractive to global investors. In contrast, the ECB is seen as nearing the end of its tightening cycle or being closer to initiating cuts due to persistent Eurozone economic stagnation and inflation moving closer to its 2% target. This disparity in interest rates makes the U.S. Dollar the preferred currency for carry trades and capital parking, putting constant downward pressure on the value of the Euro against the greenback.
This trend reflects a fundamental "two-speed economy" problem: a resilient U.S. economy on one side versus a struggling Eurozone on the other. This dynamic not only creates a yield advantage for the dollar but also reinforces its status as the global safe-haven currency. When global market uncertainty increases, investors rush into the USD, causing the Euro futures price to fall. Until there is a dramatic change in economic data—either a sharp deterioration in the U.S. or a significant rebound in the Eurozone—the structural headwind from this interest rate gap will likely continue to make the Euro futures contract vulnerable to downward moves.
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
EUR/USD – 6E // Structural Analysis Context
The Federal Reserve continues to drain liquidity from the system while maintaining a cautious stance rather than a purely hawkish one.
Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that monetary policy is not on a preset course, and decisions will be guided by the balance between inflation and employment data.
He noted that inflation risks remain slightly to the upside, but that the downside risks to employment have increased, suggesting a gradual shift toward a more balanced policy outlook.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of crucial macroeconomic data, including the COT reports, limiting visibility into institutional positioning and forcing traders to rely primarily on price, volume, and market structure as objective indicators.
Adding to the macro backdrop, U.S. yields remain elevated across the curve, sustaining a clear interest rate advantage for the dollar relative to the eurozone.
This persistent differential continues to attract capital flows toward USD-denominated assets, reinforcing the short- and medium-term bias in favor of the dollar.
Volume Analysis & Auction Market Theory
Price remains below the Value Area of the active dealing range,
placing the market within a technical discount zone — a clear sign of imbalance in auction dynamics.
This implies that fresh short exposure carries increasing risk,
as the market trades below fair value relative to its volumetric distribution.
Until new acceptance develops within value, volatility and liquidity asymmetry are expected to persist.
Price Action
The previous analysis calling for a long structural realignment has failed, and the reason is now clear.
The last demand zone, currently being revisited, failed to generate a new higher high, confirming it as a weak demand and therefore a high-probability target for liquidity violation.
At this point, the market shows clear signs of dollar accumulation,
potentially indicating the start of a broader expansion phase favoring USD.
Even the deep discount demand may not hold unless substantial absorption occurs.
Both short-term and medium-term structures remain bearish,
defined by successive breakdowns with price acceptance.
The move is inefficient, leaving behind several Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) —
often precursors of either:
a spring-type reversal, sweeping liquidity before reaccumulation, or
a continuation leg, confirming structural expansion of the dollar cycle.
For conservative or longer-term investors,
rather than waiting for a full medium-term realignment,
it may be prudent to await price acceptance back inside the Value Area,
followed by a failed auction confirmation,
and observe reactions toward the range high or the Value Area High (VAH).
Macro Events This Week
This week’s calendar reinforces U.S. macro dominance and short-term volatility risk:
Monday (Nov 3): ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday (Nov 4): JOLTs Job Openings
Wednesday (Nov 5): ISM Services PMI
Thursday (Nov 6): BoE Interest Rate Decision
Friday (Nov 7): Germany Balance of Trade; U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls; Unemployment Rate; Michigan Consumer Sentiment
With both labor market and services data concentrated toward the end of the week,
volatility spikes and renewed dollar strength are possible should results sustain the inflationary narrative supporting current yield levels.
Summary
Macro: Fed remains hawkish; liquidity contraction ongoing; yields favor the dollar.
Structure: Short- and medium-term remain bearish; demand zones show weakness.
Volume: Price below Value Area indicates technical discount and imbalance.
Outlook: Market likely in a dollar accumulation phase; confirmation awaits acceptance and failed auction.
EUR/USD - 6E FUTURES // SHORT SETUPMacro Context
The market is currently in a macro distribution phase after a confirmed structural breakdown and failure to re-enter previous value areas.
Supply remains dominant, and institutional flow favors continuation to lower value zones.
The setup aims to capture the short-term redistribution leg within the broader macro cycle.
Technical Structure
Bias: Short
Structure: Break of Structure → Retest → Redistribution
Setup Type: Institutional rejection inside Premium Zone (Wyckoff redistribution pattern)
Framework: Medium-term structure aligned with macro distribution
Dealing Range: Composed of two consecutive legs, which increases structural ambiguity — focus on the final impulse for precision.
Entry Criteria
Context aligned: Macro structure confirms bearish bias.
Location:
Entry at 75% of the total dealing range,
or 75% retracement of the final impulse (depending on liquidity context).
Confluence factors:
Supply Zone aligned with LVN.
Presence of maximum negative delta in prior breakdown zone.
vPOC cluster near Premium (indicating previous distribution).
Confirmation inside the zone:
Compression + Wyckoff Redistribution (lower highs, absorption, loss of momentum).
🗓️ Weekly Context Note – November 3–7, 2025
This is Week 1 of the month, typically characterized by institutional repositioning and NFP volatility.
The market is expected to remain liquidity-driven and reactive, especially ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data, which will likely define directional bias for the rest of the month.
The COT report was not released this week due to the U.S. government shutdown, limiting visibility into institutional positioning.
As a result, traders must rely on price structure, delta flow, and yield curve dynamics for macro confirmation instead of commitment data.
Key scheduled events:
Mon (Nov 3): ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Tue (Nov 4): JOLTs Job Openings (USD)
Wed (Nov 5): ISM Services PMI (USD)
Thu (Nov 6): BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP)
Fri (Nov 7): Germany Balance of Trade + U.S. NFP, Unemployment Rate & Michigan Sentiment
Operational focus:
Expect low conviction early in the week as institutions adjust positioning.
High-impact volatility likely Thursday–Friday.
Avoid premature entries into premium zones prior to NFP.
Post-NFP retracements may provide the cleanest opportunities for continuation setups within the macro bias.
Analytical note:
With COT data unavailable, price action remains the only reliable proxy for institutional flow.
Volatility is expected to compress before expanding post-NFP — favor setups only in structurally efficient zones.
Psychology of Execution — The Discipline Behind ProfitabilityThe trader’s work is not to predict, but to identify and repeat statistical edges.
We are not paid for time or effort — trading is not a conventional job where more work means more income.
We are compensated for analytical precision and disciplined execution.
Every trading system lives or dies by its risk management.
Capital protection is not defensive; it is strategic — because only preserved capital can compound.
Patience is not passivity; it is the highest expression of confidence in one’s own method.
There is no consistent profit outside of a system with proven positive expectancy.
The Stop Loss is not a punishment, but the technical boundary where an idea loses validity — respecting it preserves both capital and clarity.
The Take Profit is not greed; it is discipline in harvesting the statistical payoff that maintains long-term profitability.
Risk–Reward asymmetry is one of the most important principles of professional trading.
However, it must be calibrated: win rate and R:R are inversely correlated in most systems.
High R:R setups can be profitable even with low accuracy,
but the real question is whether the trader’s psychology can endure long sequences of losses without emotional erosion.
Market rumors and sentimental analysis are traps — they feed volatility, not precision.
Professional traders operate from objective data, structure, and impartial interpretation,
letting probability — not emotion — dictate the outcome.
Trading is a craft of asymmetry, probability, and restraint.
Profit is the by-product of method — not the reward for effort.
Euro Eyes Breakout Ahead of Rate DecisionFenzoFx—EUR/USD is trading lower today, below the descending trendline. The price has been reacting to the ascending trendline multiple times as shown on the chart. There is a double bottom formed at $1.1584, which could limit the upside momentum as liquidity rests below them. As we approach the US interest rate decision, we expect Euro to trade higher against the U.S. dollar and break above the descending trendline.
In this scenario, Euro could rally to 1.1766, followed by 1.1830. On the flip side, if Euro remains below the descending trendline, the price could target the double bottom at 1.1584, as sell-side liquidity is resting below this level.
Global FX Trends: Policy Divergence and a Resilient DollarThe foreign exchange market is currently being shaped by two dominant forces: diverging central bank policies and the surprising resilience of the U.S. Dollar despite expectations for further rate cuts. As we move into the final quarter of the year, macro fundamentals are increasingly outweighing earlier trade headlines to guide currency direction.
The U.S. Dollar Finds a Floor
After an aggressive sell-off earlier in the year, the U.S. Dollar has staged a significant rebound and is now stabilizing. This turnaround is largely due to resilient U.S. economic data, which has led the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious stance on future interest rate cuts. While the market had priced in an aggressive easing cycle, the Fed's reluctance to commit to a rapid pace of cuts has revived the dollar's appeal. Additionally, the USD retains its status as the world's primary safe-haven currency, providing it with inherent support amid global geopolitical and financial market uncertainties. Traders are now focusing more on real economic data than on speculative Fed expectations.
Key Divergences in Major Pairs
The stabilization of the USD is driving volatility and clear trends in major currency pairs:
EUR/USD : The Euro initially surged to multi-year highs earlier in 2025 but has since retreated against the stronger dollar. The European Central Bank (ECB) is seen as being closer to ending its easing cycle and the Eurozone economy is showing signs of moderate momentum, which provides underlying support for the Euro. However, any sustained rally requires the market to price in more definitive Fed cuts than the Fed is currently signaling.
USD/JPY: The pair remains volatile, with the Yen facing pressure from the persistent large interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. While the Yen is a traditional safe-haven asset, it is being weakened by the ultra-low interest rates maintained by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Speculation about a possible BoJ rate hike is keeping the Yen from weakening further, but the pair’s direction is currently dominated by USD strength and the rate gap.
Commodity Currencies: Currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) have been stabilizing, benefiting from a perceived improvement in global risk sentiment and stabilization in commodity markets. However, these currencies remain highly sensitive to news regarding U.S.-China trade relations, often acting as a proxy for global growth and demand.
The overarching theme for the rest of the year remains monetary policy divergence. While most G10 central banks have already begun cutting rates, the U.S. Fed's slower pace is keeping the dollar comparatively firm, creating sharp movements and opportunities in the major currency crosses.
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Wait for price to SHOW ME WHERE TO MAKE MONEY!Hey Squad,
Im going to keep this short and sweet but I want you to PEEP......lol the possible setups that are coming. This week we can not tell exactly what to look for since the market is giving us opposing call outs. For example, The Weekly looks like a double top has formed showing bears/selling favor but the 4/8h shows respecting of a low and shows the forming of a double bottom!
so what does this mean? We are waiting for price to show us who to follow!! But if you were to ask me....I believe the USD will suffer this week due to shutdown and uncertainty so I believe we will be trending low! Good for gold and silver traders and those that see weakness in the $!
If we can break below the 1.163 area and hold I think its clear we are moving down until we hit a high time frame FVG.
Tell me your thoughts and comments on this Analysis!
and like always! Gd look out there and TAKE PROFIT!






















