NASDAQ Futures (/NQ) Outlook – Weekly Chart As of August 1,2025NASDAQ Futures (/NQ) Outlook – Weekly Chart
As of August 1, 2025
Current Price: 22,915.75
RSI (14): 61.34 – momentum remains bullish, but cooling off
🧭 Short-Term Outlook:
The recent weekly candle shows strong rejection and a -2.16% drop, suggesting a possible correction phase.
Price is now heading toward the 0.236 Fib retracement zone (~22,120) — a logical short-term support.
If this level doesn't hold, the next major support sits around the 0.382 zone (~21,045), aligning with your second expected zone (~21,000).
🛑 Support Levels to Watch:
~22,120 – Fibonacci 23.6%, prior structure zone
~21,000–21,045 – Confluence with 38.2% Fib + former resistance
~20,175 – 50% retracement, deeper retest if sentiment shifts
Mid-Term Bias (Q4 2025 Outlook):
After this pullback phase, your projected path implies:
A bullish resumption from the support levels (likely from 21k–22k zone)
Consolidation into Q4
A breakout continuation toward new highs above 24,000 into 2026
This outlook remains valid as long as 20,000 holds — a clean invalidation point for medium-term bulls.
Also, whenever the daily Candle closes above high of thid week which is the ~23845 points , this outlook become invalid too.
NQQ1! trade ideas
NFP Miss Implications: Recession Signal or Rate Cut CatalystCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1!
Happy Friday, folks!
Today is the first Friday of August, and that means the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers came in at 7.30 am CT.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul) 73.0k vs. Exp. 110.0k (Prev. 147.0k, Rev. 14k); two-month net revisions: -258k (prev. +16k).
Other key labor market indicators were as follows:
• US Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%)
• US Average Earnings MM (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
• US Average Earnings YY (Jul) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%, Rev. 3.8%)
• US Labor Force Particle (Jul) 62.2% (Prev. 62.3%)
Data and Key Events Recap:
What a year this week has been! It's been packed with high-impact economic data and pivotal central bank decisions, especially from the Federal Reserve. On top of that, trade and tariff announcements have dominated the headline.
U.S. economic data this week was broadly strong. Second-quarter GDP came in at 3.0%, beating expectations and signaling solid growth. The ADP employment report also surprised to the upside, printing 104K vs. the 77K forecast. Consumer confidence showed resilience as well, with the Conference Board’s reading rising to 97.2.
Inflation data was mixed but mostly in line. Core PCE for June rose 0.3% MoM, while the YoY reading ticked up to 2.8%, slightly above the expected 2.7%. The broader PCE Price Index also came in at 0.3% MoM, with a YoY print of 2.6%, slightly higher than forecast.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50%. Notably, Governors Waller and Bowman dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point rate cut as expected, however, marking the first dual dissent by governors since 1993.
Changes to the FOMC Statement included a downgraded assessment of economic growth, reflecting slower real consumer spending. The Committee reiterated that uncertainty around the economic outlook remains elevated. It maintained its view of the labor market as "solid" and inflation as "somewhat elevated." Forward guidance remained unchanged, emphasizing the Fed’s readiness to adjust policy as necessary while continuing to monitor risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
Here’s a summary of key points from the FOMC press conference:
• On current policy stance:
“We decided to leave our policy rate where it’s been, which I would characterize as modestly restrictive. Inflation is running a bit above 2%... even excluding tariff effects. The labor market is solid, financial conditions are accommodative, and the economy is not performing as if restrictive policy is holding it back.”
Chair Powell commented on the need to see more data to help inform Fed’s assessment of the balance of risks and appropriate Fed Funds rate.
• On labor market risks:
“By many statistics, the labor market is still in balance... You do see a slowing in job creation, but also a slowing in the supply of workers. That’s why the unemployment rate has remained roughly stable.”
• On inflation and tariffs:
“It’s possible that tariff-related inflationary effects could be short-lived, but they may also prove persistent. We’re seeing substantial tariff revenue—around $30 billion a month—starting to show up in consumer prices. Companies intend to pass it on to consumers, but many may not be able to. We’ll need to watch and learn how this unfolds over time.”
Trade Headlines:
US President Trump announced tariffs on countries ranging from 10%-41%. Average US tariff rate now at 15.2% (prev. 13.3%; 2.3% pre-Trump), according to Bloomberg. US officials said that if the US has a surplus with a country, the tariff rate is 10% and small deficit nations have a 15% tariff, US officials said they are still working out technicalities of rules of origin terms for transshipment and will implement rules of origin details in the coming weeks. No details on Russian oil import penalty. Sectoral Tariffs White House said new reciprocal tariff rates take effect on Friday. Although Canada’s tariffs were increased to 35%, excluding USMCA goods, the effective rate is only 5%.
The economic data is showing strength, on the contrary, tariffs announcements for most countries have now been announced. Investors need to consider that tariffs are not just a tool to reduce trade deficit, it is also a geopolitical tool presently being used to shape alliances. The US wants to soften BRICS, China and Russian influence on the world stage.
Key to note is that these tariffs are substantially lower than what was announced on April 2nd, 2025.
The key question now remains, do participants buy the dip or ‘sell the fact’ is the current playbook?
Market Implications
Given the prior revisions in NFP data of -258K, July’s payroll came in at 73K, missing forecasts of 110K. What does this mean for markets? Markets are now pricing in 75% chance of a September rate cut. Prior revisions along with the current job market slowing down imply that risks to the downside are substantially increasing. Fed’s current policy is not just moderately restrictive but rather it may likely tip the US into a recession if Fed Funds rates remain elevated. The Chair asked to see more data, and here it is but I do wonder why they did not take this data into account for the July meeting. Surely, it would have been available to them.
Another question to ask would be, is it due to defiance of rate cut calls by the US administration? Is the Fed already behind the curve?
Fed’s dual mandate targets inflation and maximum employment. While inflation is sticky, the Fed may need to abandon their 2% mandate in favor of average inflation of 2.5% to 3%. A less restrictive policy will provide needed stimulus along with the fiscal stimulus provided via the BBB bill.
This drastically changes, in our analysis, how investors position themselves heading into the remainder of the year.
Markets (equities) may retrace slightly but the dip in our opinion will still be the play given weaker labor market data and increased rate cut bets. The bad news here means that the Fed has the data it wants to see to start cutting. Market pricing in 2 cuts seems to be the way forward for now.
NQ Short (08-01-25)The 5% pull back is playing out. We had the heavy selling after the O/N Pump/Dump into the selling of the Reg Session and Outside Day Reversal. Up for weeks and down in hours. Next break down will have to be the failure of the long standing Friday into Monday Long Play. We did get the reg session selling and now O/N selling. Looking for the trifecta and failed F-M move. Long Trap is active. Just watch the timely Tweets and Tricks at KL's.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/1/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025
- PR High: 23347.50
- PR Low: 23241.75
- NZ Spread: 236.0
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Average Hourly Earnings
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- Unemployment Rate
09:45 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Manufacturing Prices
Engulfing daily bar from ATH into new week lows
Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 8/1)
- Session Open ATR: 262.82
- Volume: 45K
- Open Int: 280K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -2.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 23811
- Mid: 22096
- Short: 20383
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ : Key levelsHere are the key levels that the market will be interested in. From the yellow level ~23.477 you can already look for shorting trades. However, I would be careful with shorts on US indices. The other levels are still risky for limit order trading.
⚠️ VOLATILITY WARNING ⚠️
Trading around major news can be extremely unpredictable. Trade responsibly!
NQ : Buy levelsAll right, the stops are off like I said in my prev NQ post.
Turns out there was an important FOMC news that I didn't notice. I don't usually trade on the news.
Now the levels where the green arrows are from are back in play. You can pips, you can scalp, you can look for longer trades from them. I usually scalp them.
NQ : enormous amount of sell-stopsI have highlighted two zones where a lot of sell-stop orders are currently concentrated. Those who trade robots with fast buybacks, you can put your algorithms there. When entering these zones there will be a quick dropdown of the price if it comes to these zones in liquid time (American session).
Those who do not have robots, I will inform you when it will be possible to get some profit from these zones with limit trades.
NQ Short (07-30-25)NAZ is at upper target and Turn Zone from May 12th post. Failure here should see a 5% drop test. The idea is that buyers will need some sellers in order to get higher. The sellers will help to test the level strength. Month end into a Friday-Monday Long play and a break in this long standing pattern may create the opposite. Current danger zone is the 23,486 KL. Look Long above and short below. Scalping Shorts should turn to holding shorts and scalping Longs. Expect timely Tweets and same old Tricks near or under the DZ. O/N is still The BOSS until both the O/N and Reg Session sell (on same day).
MNQ Short @robby.tradez price looking to fill imbalance from yesterdays late New York session
- what inspired the trade?
I run a checklist of confluences when trading this asset, it is either I compare it with CME_MINI:MES1! or DXY
as of now MNQ is below my daily open so it lets me know sellers are in control as well as using the volume profile gives me more confirmation, also pairing it with DXY then we have more reason why I took the trade \\
RR 1:4 I generally aim for 4% on a trade like this because it passes as a high probability trade A SETUP
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/31/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025
- PR High: 23744.25
- PR Low: 23686.00
- NZ Spread: 130.5
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- Core PCE Price Index (MoM|YoY)
09:45 | Chicago PMI
New ATHs through Asian hours
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 7/31)
- Session Open ATR: 244.46
- Volume: 32K
- Open Int: 283K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -0.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 23811
- Mid: 22096
- Short: 20383
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NASDAQ Long 7.30.25Price had hit a weekly +ob on 7.29.25, and the current day (7.30.25) had not taken the previous day high or low, but looked like it wanted to distribute into the pd wick equilibrium premium level. After 10 AM closed as a bullish candle, signifying higher price, I entered iat 11 AM on the 10 AM candle equilibrium. Price hit the 75% BE and Final TP with 1.28 RR.
Rejection Brewing, is MNQ About to Bleed Below POC? My morning trade wasn't shit but as with any asset price decides no matter the analysis. That said I'm watching MNQ for a potential bearish setup building beneath the Point of Control (23,485.25).
Here’s the game plan:
- Price is hovering just above POC after failing to follow through from the bounce.
- EMA structure is weakening, waiting for a 9/21 EMA bearish crossover below VWAP to confirm momentum shift.
- If we break and reject from POC/VWAP, I’ll be looking for a short opportunity targeting 23,450 → 23,420 (aligned with channel lows and fib levels).
- Give it 30 minutes — Let price confirm the break and structure cleanly before taking the entry.
This entire move would confirm distribution at value and trend continuation into lower range extremes.
If I'm Wrong:
A reclaim and hold above 23,510 with EMAs curling up negates the setup.
Bias:
Bearish Probability: 70%
Waiting on clean confirmation from structure and momentum shift.
VWAP Rejected, POC Respected, Let the Squeeze BeginMNQ just gave us a cheeky little rejection wick right off VWAP and the POC classic London session move. After flushing into prior structure, price left a long lower wick and a tiny body candle, signaLling seller exhaustion. We're also bouncing right off a trend line that’s held since last week, and the 21/9 EMAs are starting to flatten, hinting at a potential shift.
What makes this even more interesting is how cleanly price tapped the POC (23,486), respected it, and then started grinding back up. That kind of level-to-level respect usually means algo eyes are on it and I'm here for it.
I’m long from 23,491 with a stop just below 23,474, targeting a move into 23,544 for TP1, and possibly 23,652 if momentum carries. It's a structured setup, built off VWAP, POC, Fib mid, and ORB timing. Not a moonshot call just a solid base hit play with clean risk defined.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/30/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025
- PR High: 23474.75
- PR Low: 23449.25
- NZ Spread: 57.0
Key scheduled economic events:
08:15 | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
08:30 | GDP
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 | FOMC Statement
- Fed Interest Rate Decision
14:30 | FOMC Press Conference
AMP temp margins increase anticipating vol spike for economic events
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 7/30)
- Session Open ATR: 232.98
- Volume: 16K
- Open Int: 281K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -0.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 23811
- Mid: 22096
- Short: 20383
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Lord Jesus Christ, Son of God, have mercy on us sinnersare you ready... ?
In the name of the Father, and of the Son, and of the Holy Spirit. Amen.
Glory to Thee, our God, glory to Thee.
O Heavenly King, O Comforter, the Spirit of Truth, who art in all places and fillest all things; Treasury of good things and Giver of life, come and dwell in us and cleanse us from every stain, and save our souls, O gracious Lord.
Holy God, Holy Mighty, Holy Immortal, have mercy on us.
Glory to the Father, and to the Son, and to the Holy Spirit: now and ever and unto ages of ages. Amen.
All-holy Trinity, have mercy on us. Lord, cleanse us from our sins. Master, pardon our iniquities. Holy God, visit and heal our infirmities for Thy name's sake.
Lord, have mercy.
Glory to the Father, and to the Son, and to the Holy Spirit: now and ever and unto ages of ages. Amen.
Our Father, who art in the heavens, hallowed be Thy name: Thy kingdom come; Thy will be done on earth, as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread; and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us; and lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from the evil one.
For Thine is the kingdom, and the power, and the glory, of the Father, and of the Son, and of the Holy Spirit: now and ever and unto ages of ages. Amen.
In one, holy, catholic, and apostolic Church