Gold Investors May Be in It for the Long Haul If one wishes to be the ultimate bull on gold and identify a path higher for it, then one bullish outcome could be a rise to a range of $4,400 to $4,680. Since October 2023, gold has advanced in a stair-step-like manner, with periods of strong gains followed by phases of consolidation. On each of those occasions, gold has reached the 1.272% or 1.618% Fibonacci extension of the previous trend before consolidating.
It may not turn out to be the case this time, but we should soon find out as gold approaches the 100% extension at $4,160. If gold were to surpass that Fibonacci extension level, it could then rise towards those higher prices previously mentioned.
Gold, however, is overbought and has been since reaching $3,800, which means it is long overdue for a period of consolidation. While there may still be a path higher for gold, it does not come without significant risk. The metal is currently trading above its upper Bollinger Band and has a relative strength index (RSI) of 86.7.
The last time gold’s RSI was this high on the daily chart was in July 2020, which was followed by a long and drawn-out consolidation phase lasting until March 2024, during which the price fell from around $2,000 to $1,600 at its lowest point.
For gold investors, the message at this stage may be that while gold still has the potential to move higher, one may need to be prepared to hold on to the precious metal for some time to come, as the risk now appears to be greater than the potential reward.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
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