Sell PositionWe have a break in the 15 minute Candl at 11 o’clock New York time I’m going to sell is the price Reach the top TP at the Fair value gap
GCD1! trade ideas
micro pattern provides structure for upward continuation 1->3 : higher high, number 2 confirmed low
4: return and pullish reaction
what do I think will happen next ?
* a return to number 4 would provide a good
rr entry with proven buyers to protect our trade
* I have bullish divergence on RSI and MFI
* vwap seems to confirm bullish sentiment with bar reacting off vwap line
* pullback pitchfork pinpoints current bar
Dipping my toes with 1-Ounce Gold Futures CME in 2025 launched a new futures instrument called 1-Ounce gold.
Day trading margin requirement is $16.5 and overnight trading margin requirement is $165.
This has been a great way to start trading in live markets with low capital requirements.
1OZ price action closely mirrors GC gold futures so there is a lot of content and experts that share their ideas about where gold is going.
1OZ is equivalent to 1/100 of Gold Futures and tick sizes are 0.25 equivalent to $0.25.
Great for a beginner like myself to get a feel of the markets to test strategies and also experience the emotions of being in a position; being up and being down. These emotions cannot be simulated when backtesting or paper trading.
While experiencing these emotions, I have been journaling how the trades make me feel and behave. I have learnt more about myself that day-to-day life experiences do not subject me with.
I started my journey mid-2025 and so far I have had more losing trades than wins. However, 0.25 tick only represent 25c I treat it as the paying the market a low-fee for my education.
Who knows if I will be resilient enough to continue this journey in the months or years to come? We all have to start somewhere/sometime. Hope I have the discipline to stay the course and not give up.
Is anyone out there a beginner like myself trading 1OZ? Please comment and tell me how 1OZ has been treating you?
Gold Bulls Eye Breakout, But Caution May Be RequiredI'm seeing a lot of bullish calls for a gold breakout this week, and the contrarian within me suspects this could lead to disappointment over the near term. Even though my core bias is for gold to reach new highs eventually. Today I look at market exposure to gold futures from the commitment of traders report alongside key levels on gold's futures chart.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at Forex.com and City Index.
Good Price action can continue on Gold As we get ready to close out the week price moved full on bullish yesterday and it looks like it can continue. Looking to see what Happens when price moves back insde of the small 1HR FVG they left behind. we are not reacting to anything before the killzone.
Gold Futures | ADX Heating Up – Continuation or Trap at MH?Price has pushed away from the untested H4 FVG, showing strong bullish pressure. With ADX > 25 on the 15m and close to crossing on 1H/4H, momentum is shifting into trend mode.
My watch:
Break + retest of yesterday’s high and MH level for continuation longs.
Only looking for shorts if liquidity sweeps above MH and we see strong rejection.
Question is: do we run higher with ADX confirmation, or is this just a trap before a deeper pullback?
GC - Gold Re-Testing The L-MLH - Short AheadFirst we crack the L-MLH.
Then we got a test and now the re-test.
On a close outside the fork it's a present to short wit stops above somewhere the wicks high.
Profit at the orange Centerline (PTG1) and at the Red Centerline. All in all a wonderful trade with a decent risk/reward.
And if the train leaves without us, NO FOMO please §8-)
Gold looks interesting again.Gold has successfully worked off its prior overbought condition through a period of sideways consolidation rather than a corrective drawdown. This resilience—marked by the metal’s unwillingness to print lower lows—points to a constructive setup.
Technical Setup
Support: The 50-day EMA has held as a key support level, reinforcing the bullish bias.
Breakout Potential: Should price resolve higher out of the current range, the move could prove sharp and decisive given the stored energy of consolidation.
Breadth Confirmation: While gold has moved sideways, GDX (miners) has already pushed to fresh highs, and silver is breaking out, signaling strong cross-complex participation.
Thematic Takeaway
The broad alignment across gold, silver, and miners suggests a healthy underlying bid for the precious metals complex. This type of breadth historically strengthens the case for sustained upside momentum rather than an isolated rally.
GC Midweek Outlook – Daily Imbalance Tested, H4 FVG Still in PlaPrice has now completed the move into the Daily FVG (~3425–3443) that I highlighted earlier this week. This is the critical mid-week decision point.
Bearish Case: If price rejects here, downside rotation into the untouched H4 FVG (3377–3396) remains possible before any larger move higher.
Bullish Case: If buyers defend the H1 imbalance and hold above 3412, continuation toward the Monthly High (3451) is on the table.
ADX remains under 25, suggesting no strong trending conditions yet — market is still liquidity-driven.
I’ll be watching the Daily FVG reaction and how price handles the H1 imbalance as key intraday signals.
Longing Goldyep, Longing Gold, i mean who would short it anyways.
Iam coming from a very long losing streak so that confirm the move and do your own analysis.
Also just so you know, there is a good chance that i will play out as analyzed, just do your own analysis and if both analysis matches, then take the trade.
Gold is in a bubbleGold appears to be running straight up to resistance without ever forming support around $2486. This is not a good sign for gold buyers. I'm highly speculating gold will fall back to $2486. This move is similar to 1979. As in 1979 it went significantly higher than resistance before falling all the way back down to support. So be cautious, this could go much higher than $4220 before coming back to reality.
Good luck!
return to proven buyers presents entry at market edge on trend1->4 : return to proven buyers
next ?
* bullish 2nd degree divergence : rsi & mfi
* oversold : rsi and mfi
* reaction from vpoc showing buying support
* on-trend
*obv returns uptrend
* obv bollinger band lower extreme on #4
* price dips under bb lower extreme
GOLD | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:32 EDTGOLD | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:32 EDT
Buy Zone: 3709 – 3682
Scenario 1 : Buy
Entry: 3700
Stop Loss: 3685
Targets:
TP1 → 3745 (1:3)
Analysis:
From Buy Zone (3709 – 3682) creates possibilities for a buy move.
Scenario 2 : Sell
Entry: 3685
Stop Loss: 3700
Targets:
TP1 → 3670
TP2 → 3621
TP2 → 3604
Analysis:
Below Buy Zone (3709 – 3682) creates possibilities for a sell move.
Stay alert on updates here.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This idea is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own analysis before making trading decisions.
GOLD SHORT TERM VIEWWill look for shorts if we sweep the zone and get a selling confirmation on smaller TF. We can wait for MSS on 1 or 3min TF.
QQQ Macro Stress Gold ripping higher (+60% YoY)
Investors are hedging inflation risk, currency debasement, or policy uncertainty
Gold outperformance shows capital fleeing to “hard money” rather than growth assets
CRBS/US10Y above 8% + US10Y trending down is a classic stagflation warning
Economy faces cost pressures (gold pricing in inflation fears)
Bond market is saying “growth is slowing/policy will ease"
Commodities are saying “inflation pressures are rising"
That’s the exact recipe for stagflation - weak real growth, sticky/accelerating inflation
This is bearish-biased for QQQ unless CRBS/US10Y cools back below +8% because of multiple compression risk - growth narrative struggles if inflation is sticky while real growth is soft
Valuations pressured by elevated yields
No reflationary support from commodities
Historically underperform in stagflation regimes
This setup (gold vertical, CRBS/US10Y sinking) = stagflation hedge regime
QQQ continues higher if yields stabilize & capital rotation pauses (20%)
Possible if Fed pivots or inflation fears calm while liquidity remains strong
QQQ consolidates near highs (30%)
Yields + inflation fears cap upside, but strong AI/earnings narrative prevents a deep selloff
Most likely outcome (50%) is stagflation + sticky yields compress multiples (5%–10% correction risk)
CRBS/US10Y >8% while US10Y trends lower is one of the cleanest stagflation warning signals
For QQQ it usually shifts probabilities heavily toward correction
For gold/commodities it confirms continued strength
Gold Eyes $3,700 Amid Overbought SignalsGold broke out of a multi-month trading range when the spot price finally cleared resistance around $3,450. It took some time for the ascending triangle to play out, and this could mean gold is now on its way towards $3,700. However, the metal has quickly reached overbought levels and may be due for a pause.
Breaking Out
The breakout could be significant and may trigger a move to much higher levels over time; it just doesn’t mean it will all happen at once. One way to measure the breakout from the ascending triangle pattern suggests the precious metal could climb to about $3,700.
The relative strength index also confirms the breakout, rising above a downtrend that had formed between April and August. The rise above the trend line on the RSI confirms the breakout and signals that the consolidation period has ended.
Overbought
However, the precious metal did not take long to reach overbought levels, with its value rising above the upper Bollinger Band and the relative strength index climbing over 70. This could mean that gold is due for a pause—a period of sideways consolidation—before moving on to higher prices.
It could also suggest that the metal is about to run out of steam, having expended too much energy breaking out of the consolidation range, and may be due for a sharp pullback to $3,440 to retest the breakout, or even a decline towards the lower Bollinger Band near $3,200.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
Gold Futures Short Into Asia 9/7/25Based on the current Fair Value Gap (FVG), Order Block (OB), and the liquidity resting below, I anticipate gold will retrace toward the Point of Control (POC) identified on the volume profile. This would provide an ideal setup for short-term selling opportunities during tonight’s PM session.
My expectation is for price to open lower, push into the 3658 range, and present a bearish entry signal. From there, I’ll be targeting shorts toward the equilibrium of the FVG around 3619, which also aligns closely with previous session highs and lows—adding confluence to the setup.
GC 4H icc analysisGold has been in a clear uptrend and ran into resistance between 3574.6/3587.9. Price broke the zone and indicated that sellers were weak above 3587.9, continued to climb making a new high before correcting back below the zone. Once price hit a support, it continued back above 3587.9 aggressively making a new indication and a new high.
Entry: around 3587.9 (after reversal confirmation on 1 hour)
Stop loss: Below last low
Target: Last swing high
Not financial advice.
gold futures analysis past weeks and upcoming weekshowing how gold broke out of long term range and what it may do next
Gold favors buyers between 3570 and 3800 for this next weekLooking at the weekly close gold for the 2nd week in September favors bulls between 3570 and 3800
Gold thoughts after strong week A breakout on Gold and everyone remains a buyer of the dips
I have mapped out key levels, at these levels look for a setup for next move .
good luck
MGC WEEK 37 SEPT 7TH USD look to be bearish and is likely to run for higher TF equal lows.
- That being said MGC can take a small pullback and give another leg higher
if price drops below 3620 the you are offside and should be looking for lower prices and a retracement.
