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SGC1! trade ideas

Gold Stalls Ahead of CPI – Pullback Setup Loading?Gold has been aggressively bullish for the past two weeks, but yesterday showed the first signs of exhaustion. Price stalled under the daily high ($3,690), leaving liquidity below untouched. With CPI and unemployment claims scheduled during the NY session, we may see the dollar strengthen — providing the catalyst for a deeper pullback on Gold. Key Zones I’m watching: Upside Liquidity: Sweep above $3,690 (D-H) could serve as a trap before reversing lower. Downside Targets: $3,654–$3,652 (D-L/W-H confluence) $3,600 node $3,530–$3,550 (H4/8H FVG rebalancing zone) If this week is to stay bullish overall, a proper low for the week forming inside the H4/8H FVG would set the stage for continuation higher. For now, patience until price makes its move around these zones.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz
3
Gold Setting Up for Weekly Low Sweep – Watching 3650sGold has stalled out at the highs this week and is showing signs of exhaustion after a strong 2-week bullish run. Thursday’s close left us hovering just above key support in the 3650s. For Friday, I’m watching for a break and close below yesterday’s low on the 1H chart. If we get that confirmation, I’ll be looking for continuation shorts targeting Monday’s low and potentially the 8HR FVG around 3600–3620 to close out the week. If bulls defend this level again, then the range may extend — but the cleaner move is down into untested imbalances below. This sets up Friday as a key day: ✅ Break yesterday’s low = downside liquidity run in play ❌ Hold support again = chop/range into next week
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz
Gold Futures (GC) – “Top Is In” Schematic ReviewExecutive Snapshot 🧭 Primary stance: Bearish swing/top-in thesis (Wyckoff Distribution complete via UTAD). Bias strength: High, while price remains below 3,825–3,860 and fails to accept above. Game plan: Fade strength into supply; look for Phase D → E breakdown confirmation → target 3,534/3,509 → 3,209 → 3,123 then extended 2,970–2,795 if momentum accelerates. Multi-Framework Confluence: A) Wyckoff (your schematic) ♟️ Phases: A/B: BC/ST established range highs; AR/SOW tagged mid/low of range. C: UT → UTAD (new high on diminishing relative spread & mixed volume). D (now): Throwback rallies holding beneath UTAD; look for LPSY near 3,760–3,825; failure → Phase E markdown. Validation: Lower highs after the UTAD and repeated rejections of the supply shelf 3,760–3,825. Confirmation trigger: Break and accept below ICE/Creek = 3,534–3,509 (your pink band) → distribution confirmed. Macro Frame 🌐 Gold’s cyclical up-leg is extended; near-term macro supports a pause/reversion: Real yields/beta & USD shocks can catalyze a value-seeking dip. COMEX time-and-price run suggests heat above without equivalent build in value → mean-revert first, trend later. Invalidation & Risk: Hard invalidation (swing): Weekly close > 3,860 and acceptance above for 2–3 sessions (no swift rejection). Soft invalidation (tactical): Daily close back inside 3,760–3,825 after a breakdown → step aside, wait for next LPSY. Position/Risk Template: Initial risk: above 3,825 (or 3,860 for wider swing). Size: start ½–⅔ unit at first tag/reject; complete size on breakdown retest of 3,534–3,509. Trailing: swing stop > last LPSY high once 3,534 is lost. Momentum & Internals (Quick Read) ⚙️ RSI/ultimate RSI (your panels): persistent bearish divergence into UTAD zone. MACD: high, curling; ripe for signal cross on daily if price slips under 3,600s → 3,534. Squeeze/Momentum: elevated; release down would align with the distribution thesis. Execution Checklist ✅ Pre-break: Fade 3,760–3,825 on rejection candles/footprint absorption. Track delta & volume—no expansion = stronger distribution read. Break event: Daily close < 3,534 → reduce discretion, execute plan; seek retest → LPSY to add. Manage: Cover +30–50 handles into 3,209–3,180; roll runner. Data to watch: USD DXY spikes, GLD OI/put skew, dealer GEX flips around GLD 300. One-Page Risk Map 🗺️ Bearish while: < 3,825–3,860. Confirmation: < 3,534–3,509 (close/accept). Targets: 3,209 → 3,123 → 2,970 → 2,795 → 2,541. Stop/Invalid: > 3,860 w/ acceptance. Marked UTAD and supply stack 3,760–3,825 present a clean risk-defined top. Until the market accepts above 3,860, the probabilistic path favors Phase E markdown back toward 3,2xx value and possibly the 2,9xx–2,795 extension if momentum breaks loose.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JavierXBT
Gold Buy ModelAs we all know, gold has been trending up for quite some time now. With Fed Chair Roman Powell speaking about rate cuts in the future, this means that Gold is going to want to continue trending up. Lower interest rates can also weaken the U.S. dollar, making gold cheaper for foreign buyers and increasing demand. I do think gold will continue to trend higher, but I'd love to see a sweep of Asia session lows, potentially testing PDL before this happens. My area of interest is right around $3780 to $3775.
COMEX:GCZ2025Long
by TheTradingRegimen
I Should Have Noticed This Pattern (Episode 1) Just today I zoomed out on my GS chart and noticed for the first time this almost perfect triangle pattern. How did I completely miss this? -There are many times in my short trading career that I have come across things I should have noticed. Whether it's chart patterns, correlation, volume spikes, or indicators indicating; I kick myself for my neglect! -Now the least I can do is point out those mistakes and share them with you as I see them, in the hopes that more get noticed in the future. -This is an example of a symmetrical triangle which is considered the most common type of triangle pattern. Despite the name, the triangle does not have to be symmetrical and like all patterns is evaluated in the approximate. Some imagination is required. Most triangles are a representation of consolidation before continuation, but can sometimes represent a top or bottom before reversal. When price does break out of a triangle, volume should spike and this example clearly shows that. This example also shows a false breakout which would have been discovered when closing for the day back "inside" the pattern. Also like all patterns, the larger the time interval, the more important the pattern. Daily and longer are preferred. -Again this is what I see after the fact and far too late. I would not enter this trade now. Please let me know if I missed something or if you were able to trade this in real time and there was details that I left out. Also, did anyone make money on noticing this pattern? Am I mistaken in any way?
COMEX:GCZ2025Education
by NoMorePaperTrading
Long trade Trade Journal Entry Pair: MGC1! (Micro Gold Futures) Trade Type: Buy-side trade Date: Sun 29th June 2025 Session: 6.00 PM TF: 1H Trade Details: Entry: 3,904.5 Profit Level: 4,134.5 (+18.47%) Stop Level: 3,793.0 (–1.18%) RR: 127.17 Wyckoff Narrative & Structure: Phase A (Preliminary Support / Selling Climax): Market sold off into spring lows, where high volume absorption signalled potential accumulation. Phase B (Building the Cause): An extended consolidation range is formed, marked by tests of support and resistance. Smart money accumulated positions while shaking out weak hands. Phase C (Spring & Test): Price wicked below support to collect liquidity (spring event) before reclaiming the range. The test confirmed demand returning. Phase D (Markup Initiation): Breakout above resistance with strong volume, creating a Sign of Strength (SOS) and retest zones acting as Last Points of Support (LPS). Phase E (Trend Continuation): The current price action indicates a bullish continuation, in line with the long-term markup phase, which targets higher extensions (Fib 1.618 and above). Feeling really good about this trade tbh.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by davidjulien369
MGCZ2025 WEEK 39 SEPT 21STLooking for MON, TUE, WED to be the low of the week, trading into or slightly below 3H BISI. Price should run energetically to break $3744. Look for buying opportunities once price has broken below $3715. Note that price can run lower into the BOB (Bullish OB) before turning around. IF- price closes below the 3H OB at $3706. Hold to see if price turn in the lower 3H SIBI instead. You could be wrong in your analysis and price may be trying to run lower. NOTE we are entering MC-NM. This is typically a retracement which should be to the up side given market structure. NOTE: you are looking to hold for a 20 point run based on the fib. The best BUYs will be formed below $3723 CALENDAR EVENT MON - 12PM - FOMC SPEAKER TUES - 9:45AM - PMI (HIGH) - 12:35AM - POWELL SPEAKS (HIGH) WED - 10AM - NEW HOMES SALES THUR - 8:30AM - FINAL GDP (HIGH) - 10AM - EXISTING HOME SALES FRIDAY - 8:30AM - CORE PCE INDEX (HIGH) Final Note - remember to keep track of midnight/8:30 opening prices. Always refer back to the 1H and 3H to confirm what side of the market you should be on. - Alway look to buy in a discount range and sell in a premium range. Risk- Only risk 150- 200 per trade on initial entry. you can add lots once you confirm trade is good. Refer back to higher TF before adding lots. Max two trades per session.
COMEX_MINI:MGCZ2025Long
by LUNAR_TRADER_
Gold Bears Trapped at POC - Bulls Load for $3,850 BreakoutThe Market Participant Battle: Bears attempted to push Gold below the Value Area at point 2 but were decisively trapped and beaten by major institutional buyers. The rejection at the POC (Point of Control) with strong bullish divergences across multiple momentum indicators signals that bulls have regained control. Price is expected to return to test the $3,850 resistance after this bear trap consolidation, with institutional buyers defending the value area high at $3,720. Confluences: Confluence 1: Value Area Rejection & POC Defense The chart shows a textbook rejection at the Value Area High (point 2), with price piercing below but immediately recovering above both the POC and VAH. This is a classic bear trap pattern where aggressive sellers were absorbed by institutional buyers. The anchored VWAP from point 1 shows the 1st standard deviation aligning perfectly with the VAH, creating a powerful confluence of support that trapped late bears and sparked the reversal. Confluence 2: Quad Bullish Divergence All four momentum indicators (OBV, RSI, MFI, CDV) made higher lows while price made a lower low at point 2. This is an extremely rare quad divergence setup that historically precedes powerful moves higher. The OBV shows accumulation never stopped, RSI held oversold bounces, MFI indicates money never left, and CDV confirms institutional buying throughout the dip. Confluence 3: FOMC Rate Cut Catalyst The Fed just cut rates by 25bps today (September 17) with Governor Miran dissenting for larger cuts. The dot plot suggests two more cuts coming in 2025. Gold historically performs strongly during rate cutting cycles, with average gains of 14% in the year following initial cuts when markets are near highs. Web Research Findings: - Technical Analysis: Gold holding above $3,670 with immediate resistance at $3,700-3,720, major resistance at $3,850 - Recent News/Earnings: Fed cut rates 25bps today, markets pricing 93% chance of continued cuts through year-end - Analyst Sentiment: Goldman Sachs targets $3,700+ for 2025, World Gold Council sees 0-5% upside in H2 - Data Releases & Economic Calendar: CPI at 2.9% (above 2% target), unemployment rising, suggesting stagflationary environment - Interest Rate Impact: Real rates turning negative as inflation exceeds rate cuts - historically bullish for gold Layman's Summary: The Fed just started cutting interest rates today while inflation is still high (2.9%), creating the perfect storm for gold. When the Fed cuts rates but inflation stays elevated, gold becomes the go-to asset because cash loses value. Big banks are already positioned for this - central banks bought record amounts of gold in 2025. The technical setup shows major buyers stepped in exactly where they should (at the value area), creating a bear trap that should spring gold higher toward $3,850. Machine Derived Information: - Image 1: Shows numbered reference points 1-4 with clear bear trap at point 2, target at $3,856 - Significance: Classic V-reversal at value area with institutional footprints - AGREES ✔ - Image 2: Displays quad divergence across OBV/RSI/MFI/CDV indicators - Significance: Extremely bullish momentum divergence rarely seen, confirms accumulation - AGREES ✔ Actionable Machine Summary: The AI analysis confirms a textbook bear trap setup at a critical technical level (Value Area/POC) combined with an ultra-rare quad divergence across all momentum indicators. The timing with today's FOMC rate cut creates a fundamental catalyst to trigger the technical spring-load. Stop placement is clear below point 2 at $3,706, with initial target at VAH retest ($3,720) before continuation to $3,850+. Conclusion: Trade Prediction: SUCCESS Confidence: High This setup combines the perfect storm of technical and fundamental factors. Bears were trapped attempting to break value area support just as the Fed initiated its rate cutting cycle. The quad divergence is exceptionally rare and historically precedes 5-10% moves. With inflation still elevated at 2.9% and rates being cut, gold's traditional role as an inflation hedge is activated. Risk/Reward is excellent with tight stop below $3,706 and targets at $3,850+, offering 4:1 R/R.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by jacesabr_real
Gold Ready To Fold?Gold (GC1!) — 1.414 Tag + Max Gartley PRZ: Is This the High? I’m mapping a short off a full confluence cluster at the highs. Why I’m short here (stacked signals) 3-Month 1.414 extension hit: price is sitting right at ~3,722 (1.414 on the 3M chart). That’s classic terminal PRZ behavior. Daily “Max Gartley” complete: harmonic PRZ lands 3,710–3,735; price tagged/hovered there. Volume/CVD divergence across TFs: daily, weekly, monthly show higher price on weaker buy volume / softer positive delta → exhaustion. Weekly momentum divergence: MACD lower high vs price higher high; histogram rolling off = bearish momentum divergence. Band/structure context: riding the upper Bollinger with long upper wicks into red channel resistance; rising-wedge/parallel rail touch. Measured moves: last leg ≈ prior leg; AB=CD ≈ 1:1 completes ~3,720–3,735, inside the PRZ. Round-number + prior shelf: 3,700 is a heavy pivot; failure to extend above 3,739–3,742 on strong delta = absorption at the top. Extra confirmations I’m watching live CVD/Delta: push above 3,735 without new CVD highs = add to short. Spread/financing: widening bid–ask / negative basis into spikes = top-y behavior. Heikin-Ashi: upper shadows / color flip on daily/weekly strengthen the reversal case. Bottom line: This is a short right now into 3,716–3,736 with risk 3,751. The confluence—3M 1.414, daily Max Gartley, multi-TF volume divergence, weekly MACD div, and channel resistance—points to a swing lower toward 3,700 → 3,673 → 3,641, with room to 3,566/3,551 if momentum cracks.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Ki11a_B
New Highs For Gold Or Perfect Opportunity for Reversal Gold (GC1!) Is Poised to set New Highs, as We've seen Gold (GC1) reach its highest Point in history and shows no intentions of Slowing Down. Gold May Start off Strong with high liquidity This Monday, This could be the lowest we get to see gold Prices For a long time and late investor may want to get in before we take off. all I know is this will be a fierce battle as 'Bears' may use this opportunity to enter their positions the 'Bulls' will have to fight! if they really want it.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by MAN_OTC
Gold (XAU/USD) Forex SignalGold (XAU/USD) has been showing strong bullish momentum recently, but the latest Zig Zag pattern and RSI (Relative Strength Index) suggest a potential correction in the short term. Let’s analyze and provide a clear forex trading signal. Market Overview | Pair | Gold (XAU/USD) | | -------------- | ------------------------------- | | Current Price | \$3,680.7 | | Trend | Bullish with minor pullback | | Key Indicators | Zig Zag (5,10), RSI (14, close) | | Volatility | High | | Market Session | US Session | Technical Analysis Zig Zag Indicator: The last leg shows a peak around **\$3,679.3** followed by a small correction, signaling possible short-term weakness. RSI (14): Currently near the **55 level**, coming down from overbought territory (>70). This indicates the bullish rally may be slowing, and sellers could test the downside. Support Levels: \$3,650 – \$3,620 Resistance Levels: \$3,720 – \$3,750 Gold Trading Signal (September 14, 2025) | Signal Type | Sell (Short-term) | | ------------- | --------------------- | | Entry Zone | \$3,680 – \$3,690 | | Stop Loss | \$3,720 | | Take Profit 1 | \$3,650 | | Take Profit 2 | \$3,620 | Analysis: Since RSI has cooled off from overbought levels and Zig Zag shows a minor top formation, a short-term selling opportunity is expected. However, the long-term trend remains bullish, so aggressive traders may wait for dips to re-enter long positions. Alternate Scenario If gold breaks above \$3,720, the bearish setup becomes invalid, and bulls may drive the price toward \$3,750 – \$3,800. FAQs on Gold Forex Signals Q1: Is gold still a good buy in September 2025? Yes, gold remains in a long-term uptrend, but short-term pullbacks are expected. Q2: What is the best strategy for XAU/USD now? Swing traders can short near resistance with tight SL, while long-term investors can buy on dips. Q3: Which indicators are most useful for gold trading? RSI, Zig Zag, Moving Averages, and Fibonacci retracements work well with gold volatility. Conclusion Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after a strong bullish move. Short-term traders can look for sell opportunities near \$3,680 with targets at \$3,650 – \$3,620, while long-term traders should stay bullish and buy dips.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by forexinworld