Consumer Services (Hotel & Tourism Sector) : SPCSECSP : CSE Fundamentals
* Q4 2025 results indicate weakening momentum in the sector in respect of topline growth.
* Combined YoY revenue growth for Q4 2025 of four biggest hotel operators listed in CSE AHUN, KHL, PALM & AHPL is just 1%
* Major 5 STAR city hotels (AHPL, TAJ, SERV) combined revenue had recorded a negative growth of more than 5% (dropped by > 5%) during Q4 2025 comparative to previous year
* CBSL data indicates USD Earnings per Arrival had dropped by 3.03% during April 2025 against 2024. This indicates deteriorating quality of arrivals.
* No visible global promotional campaign during last 6-8 months
* Country is entering the tourism off-season
Technical Analysis (Chart Patterns)
* After dropping aggressively (17%) from recent top, SPCSECSP index is consolidating between 484-514 area creating a bear flag formation while CSE is in a bull run.
* If breaks down technical target would be 400-420 level (another 15-17% drop)
* Weekly 20 SMA is curling down
* Levels marked as 1,2,3 are support areas where investors can assess the developments for re-positioning. (levels 2/3 are strong support areas)
Strategy
Staying away from the sector and monitoring the progress/developments might be prudent while allocating capital for sectors with momentum/better growth
* If technical pattern discussed above, breaks down estimated time it will take to reach major support area coincides with the start of next tourism season (Sep/Oct), where investors can assess the situation for re-positioning.
Disclaimer
* NOT financial advice
* Investors should take their investment decisions based their own analysis
