USDOLLAR trade ideas
USD - Bullish Breakout Ascending TriangleIn my opinion, USD has a higher probability to breakout to the upside based on several reasons listed below. It’s also trading within an ascending triangle, and has been consolidating for the last couple of trading sessions, both of these signals are bullish to me given the economic backdrop in the US currently.
1.) Still strong US economy, based on the slew of positive economic data we’ve been seeing. Examples would be low jobless claims, good nominal wage growth and low inflationary pressures.
2.) Long end interest rates (10 yr) are rising due to reduced investor fears, which means a positive economic outlook for the US. Higher expected economic growth leads to a strong dollar.
3.) Corporate earnings are likely to keep surprising to the upside, since projections have been lowered so much over the last few months. Again, improving economic projections.
4.) More likely for positive rather than negative news to come out regarding US-China trade deal. Both sides are committed and evidence suggests a positive outcome.
USDOLLAR before 1.32% increase... I had to change the previous analysis. Because the circumstances have changed. Based on the current ATR data, I expect another rise in the exchange rate. The type and size of the wave structure may be similar to a previous (yellow rectangle) structure. The ratio of its price movement to the ATR is similar to the current wave structure. Therefore, the target price for the currently rising exchange rate may be around 12415.
USDOLLAR 1.6% decrease... The exchange rate moves in a declining double wave structure. Currently, it is in the correction phase with the axis of the exchange rate ATR axis. On this axis, the rising correction movement is moving. Although apparently now acts against the theory, I assume that the correction movement at this level can be completed and the second decreasing wave structure is built. The target price can be 1200 usd.
USDOLLAR before 2% decrease... The figure shows a white ATR axis and a green wave axis. I guess the "auxiliary axle" mirrored on the ATR axis can be the current rise resistance level. I look forward to turning this axis. Further wave structure can be determined by the green wave axis. The symmetrical wave motion on this axis may be descending with a target price of 11975 usd.