DXY | daily sentiment After big LQ sweeps after the Powell speech I believe market as a high probability of piulling back up to upside Orderflow to collect some orders and FVG are open in discount price
personally I dont trade DXY but it proides good sentiment for the other correlating pairs... therefore for a more refined entry model, feel free to drop to the lower TF and seek proper cornfimation.
feel free to share your opponions of the trade in commment section, @sam_trades_smc
USXUSD trade ideas
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which acts as a swing high resistance.
Pivot: 97.19
1st Support: 96.36
1st Resistance: 100.07
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US Dollar: Bearish August. Rate Cuts Likely. Sell USD?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Aug 25 - 29th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD has been weak since the start of August. It took a huge move down Friday with FED Chairman Powell's dovish take on rate cuts.
So, this market is is not one to take buys in.
However, we are still in correction territory, looking at the Monthly and Weekly candles. Be mindful that the market can find support at current levels, even though it has been bearish for 7+ months. The Swing Low has not been violated as yet.
Be cautious. No buys are justified without a Bullish BOS. Sells are the best best, but keep your head on a swivel!
React and do not predict.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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DXY4HIn this series of analyses, we have reviewed trading perspectives and short-term outlooks.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone close to the current asset price, and the market’s reaction or breakout at this level will determine the next price trend toward the specified targets.
Important note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to highlight significant levels ahead of the price and potential market reactions to these levels. The provided analyses are by no means trading signals!
DXY: False Breakout, Targets BelowHi traders and investors!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
On the daily timeframe, the Dollar Index is in a sideways range. Upper boundary 98.959, lower boundary 95.906.
We see a familiar false breakout pattern of the upper boundary of the range. The price then returned back into the range with a seller IKC candle (the highest-volume candle within the initiative).
During this false breakout, the price moved above the 50% level of the last seller initiative on the weekly timeframe, which strengthens the pattern.
I am waiting for the first target at 96.66 and the second target at 95.90.
As a reminder, my broader expectation is a move toward 94.6. Indirectly, the likelihood of continued decline in the Dollar Index is supported by the fact that the sideways range has expanded more to the downside than to the upside.
Wishing you profitable trades!
TOP DOWN ANALYSIS OF DXY weekly timeframe
applying dow theory to the downside.
recent lows broken with an impulsive bearish move.
an fvg left behind, likely to be filled later.
after breaking recent lows and the 100 monthly key level, price shows weakness with a bullish falling flag.
expecting an extension toward the weekly cp level @95 weekly key level.
tdi
sharkfin to the left signaled a reversal (confirmed).
looking for proper divergence and a w-pattern in line with technicals.
ideally, a head and shoulders on tdi with the second shoulder at the mbl or a bounce on the signal line.
anticipating an extension to the bands, with rsi reaching or approaching extreme levels.
DXY 95anticipating a continuation lower from the dollar index as foreign currencies maintain their footing for higher pricing.
using COT data we should see commercials reduce their long positioning in the USD majors over the next 6 months.
within the span of 6 months we have 4 scheduled fed meetings
- sept 17
- oct 29
- dec 10
- jan 28
as well as FOMC minutes scheduled for
- nov 19
- feb ??
DOLLAR INDEX STILL IN A DOWNTRENDIn this short video I demonstrate the continued downtrend of the dollar index after a small bounce to about 97.420. On the 4 hours time frame price has exceeded the Bollinger Band and KC band as it very over stretch statistically outside 2 standard deviations. After the bounce up I expect the continuation of the downtrend to the intended target of 96.280.
This is the decisive factor for the overall market. Indices are all at long standing macro tops that have, historically, been the max targets for cycle tops. However, it should be noted that the weekly Stochastic RSI for the DXY is about to cross down on the weekly time frame. This is an almost identical scenario to the DXY break of a multi-cycle support in 2002. The 2002 loss of trend support confirmed in September and the chart we are looking at now is almost a mirror image.
This particular scenario will be extremely confusing, even for seasoned traders, since many are betting on former macro tops to mark the end of the bull market. All indicators are lagging so, until a confirmation below .96, hedging short at local highs isn't out of the question. However, I would urge anyone basing decisions on a bias regarding macro life cycle trends on newer assets to be aware of the possibly break down on the DXY a react accordingly.
Another disaster for the US dollar.Well, we saw today’s news came out against the dollar, and the Dollar Index dropped significantly. Since Trump took office, the dollar hasn’t seen better days and keeps losing its value in the market day by day. We’ll have to see how far this dollar disaster will continue.