DXY In A Supply ZonePrice is currently reacting to an H1 supply zone. If it holds, pressure will continue to the downside. Obvious target is in daily demand.
USXUSD trade ideas
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot, which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.62
1st Support: 97.96
1st Resistance: 99.54
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US Dollar Bottom: Don’t Rush InSince the beginning of the year, the US dollar (DXY) has been the weakest currency in the floating exchange market (FX). However, since mid-July, a technical rebound has begun, fueled by several fundamental factors, notably the Federal Reserve’s monetary hawkishness. But can this upward move be interpreted as a true annual bottom?
Or is it merely a temporary short squeeze before a return to the lows? As high finance fundamentals swing back and forth, let’s assess the technical outlook for the US dollar (DXY).
1) Rate cut expected on Wednesday, September 17 – fundamentals in flux
The recent rebound in the US dollar coincides with the Federal Reserve's firm stance in refusing, for now, to resume rate cuts, which have been on hold since late 2024. In its latest monetary policy decision on July 30, the Fed reaffirmed that no tangible factors justify a rapid rate cut. Disinflation appears paused, and the institution prefers to wait until fall to assess the impact of tariff measures on the core PCE index (inflation excluding food and energy).
However, a major red flag emerged with the release of a very poor Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on August 1, reflecting a significant weakening in the labor market — a fundamental red alert!
The Fed has made it clear that the evolution of employment will be a key factor in its September decision. A weaker labor market could accelerate a monetary policy shift, renewing downward pressure on the US dollar.
2) Technical analysis of the US dollar (DXY): short-term rebound... but no medium-term trend reversal yet
From a technical standpoint, July's rebound is based on medium/long-term support levels that have so far acted as potential reversal bases. Can we legitimately speak of an annual low for the DXY? Has a major resistance been broken? The answer remains NO for now.
Weekly and monthly charts do not yet show a clear bullish reversal pattern. Some bullish divergence signals are emerging, notably on the RSI and LMACD, but they remain insufficient to confirm a lasting regime shift. A comparison with the 2018 and 2021 lows is telling: at those times, technical divergences were far more pronounced and bullish reversal structures had been confirmed.
The Elliott wave approach suggests a rebound is plausible within a corrective structure, but it does not yet guarantee a major trend reversal.
Data from the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report and ETF flows tied to the dollar indicate some hesitation among institutional investors. While short positions have declined, there’s no clear evidence of large-scale buying.
In summary, the US dollar rebound since mid-July is real but fragile. As long as technical signals remain unclear and the labor market is flashing red, betting on a sustainable trend reversal remains risky. The annual low may be in place, but it is not yet confirmed from a technical, macroeconomic, or behavioral standpoint.
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DXY: Weekly OutlookWeekly DXY Outlook
On the weekly chart, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a critical zone that was last tested in February 2022.
While a rebound is not guaranteed, the fact that the DXY has declined nearly 12% over just six months—despite a resilient U.S. economy—suggests the potential for renewed strength in the dollar.
I think the index could begin a recovery toward key levels at 100.00, 101.97, and possibly 106.00/
It’s worth noting that the broader bearish trend began with the trade tensions initiated during the Trump administration, which strained relations with several major trading partners.
Given that this is a weekly chart, it should be used more as a reference point rather than a trading signal.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
USD, DXY rejected at 100 but can bulls hold a higher-low?You find out the true test of a trend during the counter-trend episodes. Do buyers show up to hold higher-lows? Or does fear and skepticism cause them to take a back seat as sellers continue to dominate. If that's the case, then supports are vulnerable and there could be motive for continued selling. But, if bulls do stand up and hold a higher-low, that can be a sign that the market is still harboring longer-term oversold dynamics after a heavy one-sided move drove for so long.
That's where we're at with the US Dollar.
The USD finished July as its strongest month in more than three years. And it followed that up with its largest sell-off in three months as multiple factors hit the greenback on Friday. There was the NFP report, with massive revision to the headline number for the prior two months. And then Trump fired the head of the BLS and then towards the end of the session, the resignation of a Fed governor which will allow Trump to appoint a more-dovish FOMC member about six months earlier than expected.
Collectively this served to push up rate cut expectations in September and that's what hit the USD so hard. And at this point markets are widely-expecting that next cut in September to a current 87.8% probability as of right now per CME Fedwatch.
But will these dynamics lead to a more dovish Fed? Powell didn't sound as though he was ready to cut rates on Wednesday and he said it was the unemployment rate that the Fed will be watching - and that came in right at the expected 4.2%, which is very close to the 'full employment' level. There's also the Core PCE report from Thursday, which showed inflation is still moving higher - even without a Fed rate cut, and that follows a similar reading of CPI from earlier in the month.
The big question here is whether that can all allow for the USD to sink down to fresh lows and from the daily chart, there's a big spot of support potential around the April and early-June swing lows, spanning from 97.60-97.92. - js
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis:The DXY is currently moving sideways near the 98.65 support zone after a sharp drop from the 100.25 resistance, which marked last week’s high.
🔹 Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below 98.65 and holds, a continuation toward 97.90 is likely, with potential to reach the 97.50 support area.
🔹 Bullish Scenario:
If the price reclaims 99.00 and confirms support above it, we could see a retest of the 99.50–100.25 resistance zone, which remains key in the short term.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is not financial advice. It is recommended to monitor the markets and carefully analyze the data before making any investment decisions.
DXY Outlook – From Bias to Execution Previous day closed bearish from a known supply zone, leading to a sell bias, Narrowing down to the 1H timeframe, I identified a familiar bearish flag price action pattern.
dxy (long)
we have an inverse head & shoulder and we have currently retested the neckline to push futher to the upside.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Plummets Following Labour Market DataUS Dollar Index (DXY) Plummets Following Labour Market Data
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell by approximately 1.4% on Friday after the release of disappointing US labour market figures. According to Forex Factory:
→ The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%;
→ The Nonfarm Employment Change figure came in at 73K, well below the forecast of 103K. This is the lowest level of job creation in the nonfarm sector in 2025 and is roughly half the previous month’s reading (prior to revisions).
→ Furthermore, revisions for May and June were significantly more severe than usual. The May figure was revised downward by 125,000 — from +144,000 to +19,000. Similarly, the June figure was revised down by 133,000 — from +147,000 to +14,000.
These results point to a weakening labour market, which increases the likelihood of a rate cut aimed at supporting economic growth. In turn, expectations of a Fed rate cut are acting as a bearish driver for the US dollar.
Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart
Six days ago, we highlighted two U-shaped trajectories (A and B), which together formed a bullish сup and рandle pattern on the US Dollar Index chart.
Following this, price action generated a notable upward impulse (as indicated by the arrow), breaking through the upper boundary of the pattern.
However, Friday’s news triggered the following developments:
→ A new top (4) was formed on the chart, accompanied by a false bullish breakout above the psychological level of 100.00;
→ The price declined to the 98.80 area. The downward move slowed here, as this zone had previously seen strong bullish activity during the breakout from the pattern’s upper boundary — likely explaining why the market is finding support here on Monday morning.
Overall, the technical picture has shifted towards a bearish outlook. Friday’s peak continues the summer sequence of lower highs and lows: 1 → 2 → bottom of pattern (A) → 4. This structure is part of a broader downtrend that has defined the market in 2025.
Should bearish sentiment persist, fuelled by Friday’s data, we can assume a further decline in the US Dollar Index towards the median line of the descending channel (shown in red), which has been drawn through the aforementioned price extremes.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
future of the DXYHi to every one
In the DXY we are in the middle of the decisioning area which means
we should wait for the market to show its hands
First sensitive level that i am looking for is the C.E of the weekly candle(Prev.week)
IF we get resistance at that level we can wait for the price to deep into the SSL M level
Other wise i don't see any indication and obstacle for the DXY to reach the OB level above the 0.5 mid level of the range
this is my the first low hanging fruit objective which is high probability
after that my ultimate objective is the SiBi to be rebalanced
This was the technical perspective
BUT
things are happening around the world the most important one is the
USA central bank Interest Rate Cutting Decision which can leads the DXY to go lower without retracting to the 0.5 of the range
this factor also should be considered BUT overall i am bullish for DXY
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.64
1st Support: 97.14
1st Resistance: 100.09
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY to go extremely low due to Tariffs and Market ManipulationDXY to go extremely low due to Tariffs and Market Manipulation Reports
- The US Debt is almost over $38 Trillion in under 3 months
- Continue to monitor for weekly bearish signals on the chart
TVC:DXY
OANDA:USDCAD
OANDA:NZDUSD
DXY 4Hour TF - August 3rd,2025🟦 DXY 4H Analysis Neutral idea
📅 August 3, 2025
🔹 Top-Down Trend Bias:
• Monthly – Bearish
• Weekly – Bearish
• Daily – Bearish
• 4H – Bullish
The dollar index is in a larger bearish cycle but just bounced from near-term resistance around 100.250. While the 4H shows temporary strength, we’re trading into major resistance and we may see it short lived.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch
• Support: 98.00
• Resistance Zones: 99.25 and 100.25
• 61.8% Fib: 98.57
Price is currently testing structure after rejecting from the 100.25 resistance zone. This area remains a strong ceiling unless the higher timeframe structure shifts.
✅ Scenario A: Bearish Continuation (Blue Path)
1. Bearish Structure confirmation below the current zone
2.If bearish rejection confirms, expect price to continue toward 98.00, possibly 97.50
3.Clean confluence with the higher timeframe trend
⚠️ Scenario B: Bullish Extension (Orange Path)
1.If price breaks and holds above 99.25, we may see a continuation toward 100.25
2.Short-term bullish strength, but against HTF bias
3.Must treat as a counter-trend idea unless confirmed with HTF structure shift
🧠 Final Notes
• 98.50 is the key decision zone, watch reaction closely
• Trend remains bearish on all major timeframes
• Don’t force the long, lean bearish unless structure proves otherwise
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY), Position Trade Bullish Point of ViewLooking at the DOLLAR INDEX (DXY), DXY might turn bullish after tapping the potential inversion fair value gap around 100.182 suggesting a macro continuation of the long-term uptrend, with price likely to retest the 103.197 IFVG (inversion fair value gap) area, break above 114.778 liquidity, and continue higher toward the 132.345 FVG from 1st of July 1985.
USD to continue down?: Weekly Review/ fundamental analysis There was a lot of information to take in during the week starting Monday 28 July. A US / EUR trade deal announcement, US GDP, MICROSOFT earnings all contributed to positive market sentiment as the S&P continued to push all time highs. But in a reminder that anything can happen, a combination of NFP, AMAZON earnings and fresh TARIFF UNREST, ensured the week ended on a sour note.
The week got off to a good start with the US / EUR announcement. Although the news weakened the EUR as it appeared the US got the better end of the deal. And all of last weeks EUR positivity was unwound.
Despite the overall positive market mood at the beginning of the week, the currencies once again didn't quite correlate with the environment, as the USD and JPY both started the week particularly strong. Which could have been put down to 'EUR liquidity', meaning the USD and JPY benefited most from the weakness of the EUR. But, more likely, I suspected it was 'positioning' ahead of the important central bank interest rate meetings.
The meetings didn't disappoint, starting with the FOMC. The overall message was a continued reluctance to immediately cut interest rates. In a thinly veiled dig at the president, the line, "looking through inflation by not HIKING rates" sent the USD soaring as the probability of a September cut dropped to 40%.
A few hours later it was the BOJ'S turn. Although acknowledging inflation, a reluctance to immediately HIKE rates disappointed JPY bulls. And when added to positive MICROSOFT earnings, by Thursday's European session we had a peak JPY short opportunity.
But, alas, it wasn't long before disappointing Amazon earnings and the president stirring the tariff pot rocked the boat. And when Friday's NFP data 'surprised to the downside', the rot set in, the S&P dropped and in particular, sentiment for the USD crumbled. And the probability of a September rate cut significantly rose back up to 90%.
It's difficult to trade NFP at the best of times, but particularly when ISM data shortly follows. But I wouldn't argue with anyone who fancied a USD short on Friday.
I begin the new week with an open mind. I do think the S&P has a good chance of recovering (it's only natural for traders to use bad news as an excuse to take profits from all time highs). Sentiment for the USD could remain subdued, I suspect the US 10year will be a prominent part of the narrative.
On a personal note, outside of trading, drunk idiots smashing a bakery window and a member of staff leaving at short notice kept me busy. But I did manage one trade. A post BOJ 'short JPY'. It was coin toss between a post FOMC 'USD long' or a standard 'risk on AUD long'. I plumbed for the AUD. Ultimately, it wouldn't have mattered and the trade it profit.
Please feel free to offer thoughts questions, maybe you've spotted something I've not mentioned.
Results:
Trade 1: AUD JPY +1.3
Total = +1.3%
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY), Position Trade Bearish Point of ViewLooking at the DOLLAR INDEX (DXY), DXY might turn bearish after tapping the FVG above, potentially falling below the long-term ascending channel on the quarterly timeframe, suggesting a macro trend reversal, with price likely to break and retest 98.393 before continuing down toward the 84.464 FVG area.
DXY SHORT Well, the dollar index is in a descending channel. The expectation is that the price will fall from the channel ceiling to the channel floor.
This post will be updated.,
3rd August 2025 Daily Analysis For DxyDAILY DXY ANALYSIS FOR 3RD AUGUST 2025. Looking to see this setup play out completely on DXY . Will be focused on selling Gu and EU when the DXY setup start playing out
DXY Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
DXYDXY has given us a drop last week, lets wait for a correction to trade another drop.
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
DXY for this week Technical Analysis – Inverse Head & Shoulders with Neckline Retest
Current Market Situation
The chart shows an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, which is a bullish reversal pattern.
The neckline has been broken to the upside, providing a strong signal for potential continued bullish momentum.
The price is currently in the neckline retest phase, a critical area to confirm the bullish trend before further upward movement.
Key Zones
Retest Zone (Pullback): 98.300 – 98.700, an important support area.
Demand Zone: If price dips further, an additional support zone lies between 97.500 – 97.000.
Monthly Trendline: Offers long-term structural support, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Potential Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario (Preferred):
If the price holds above the retest zone and neckline:
Target 1: 101.000
Target 2: 102.500 – 103.500
⚠ Bearish Scenario (Invalidation):
A break below 97.000 invalidates the bullish scenario and opens the door for deeper downside movement.
Conclusion
The market shows strong bullish potential after confirming the neckline retest.
97.000 is the key invalidation level for the bullish setup.
Price action around the retest zone and demand area should be monitored closely before entering trades.
⚠️ Trade at your own risk – We are not responsible for any losses.
DOLLAR INDEX DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the value of the United States dollar (USD) relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. It reflects how strong or weak the dollar is compared to these currencies collectively. The index was created by the Federal Reserve in 1973
The six currencies included in the basket and their approximate weightings are:
Euro (EUR): 57.6%
Japanese Yen (JPY): 13.6%
British Pound Sterling (GBP): 11.9%
Canadian Dollar (CAD): 9.1%
Swedish Krona (SEK): 4.2%
Swiss Franc (CHF): 3.6%
The DXY is calculated as a weighted geometric average of the dollar's exchange rates against these currencies. When the dollar strengthens against this basket, the index rises; when it weakens, the index falls.
The index is widely used by traders, investors, and economists to gauge the overall strength of the U.S. dollar in global currency markets and to inform trading and economic decisions.
In essence, the Dollar Index provides a standardized barometer of the U.S. dollar's value against its major international trading partners' currencies.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 98.684 of August 1, Friday market close.
July saw the DXY record its first monthly gain in 2025 (rising nearly 1%) as a a result of the demand floor on ascending trendline acting as dynamic support .but selling has resumed at the start of August on ADP data report, the current supply roof presents resistance to upswing capping gains on economic outlook and immigration enforcement concern.
Key Fundamental Drivers (August 2025):
Fed Policy & Inflation: The Federal Reserve kept rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in July, but persistent inflation (core PCE up to 2.8% YoY in June) and the impact of new U.S. tariffs are keeping rate cuts on hold for now.
Tariffs & Trade Policy: Fresh, globally-applied U.S. tariffs announced at the end of July have heightened risk aversion, helped the dollar find support, and stirred inflation concerns—as import price increases feed into core inflation data.
Interest Rate Differentials: While the Fed holds rates high, other central banks (especially the ECB and BOE) are signaling further easing. The resulting policy divergence still gives the dollar some support, but large inflows into alternative markets (e.g., eurozone equities, gold, yen) have also pressured the greenback.
Safe-Haven Flows: Risk-off sentiment amid trade tension and global policy uncertainty continues to prompt investors to seek the relative safety of the dollar, limiting its downside.
Composition: The DXY measures the value of USD relative to a basket of currencies: euro (57.6%), yen (13.6%), pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%).
The path ahead depends on upcoming U.S. inflation prints, additional Fed commentary, and how global markets react to ongoing trade disputes and central bank moves.
Longer term,
The DXY remains under pressure at the start of August 2025 but is showing tentative signs of stabilization just below the key 100 mark. The trend will hinge on Fed policy, global inflation data, and the impact of new tariffs on both inflation and global risk appetite. If buying breaks and close above weekly resistance roof then 104-103 can be reclaimed.
trading is 100% probability ,manage your risk and know that any key level can fail.
#dollar #dxy #money #eurusd #gbpusd #audusd #usdjpy
DXY POTENTIAL SCENARIO two possible scenarios for DXY in next coming weeks , watch the support and wait for confirmation before buying Dollar ,
