DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to exhibit a bearish outlook driven by a combination of technical weakness and shifting macroeconomic fundamentals. Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, coupled with softer U.S. economic data and declining demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, have weighed heavily on the index. Technically, the DXY remains below key moving averages, with momentum indicators showing sustained weakness. Unless there is a significant shift in sentiment or a surprise in monetary policy direction, the bias remains to the downside over the near to medium term.
USXUSD trade ideas
DXY: The Graceful Short This is interesting…Ever since the birth of Bitcoin, the DXY was in an overall uptrend, but that uptrend may have ended in the resistance zone. Price seems to have reversed for the DXY especially after the formation of a bearish engulfing candle on the 6M timeframe. Price may end the year within or on top of the support zone.
What does this mean for crypto and other assets?
If the DXY has reversed and is now in a long term down trend, crypto currencies and other assets will be in long term uptrends! Bitcoin may skip its upcoming bearish year next year or more than likely the bearish year will happen but the retracement may be short. Stay tuned!
$BTC's run to ATH is fueled by $DXYNOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
I've yet to see this being mentioned anywhere on the internet, but TVC:DXY 's rally may just be CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's best friend.
This, despite the popular notion that when TSX:DXT goes up, CRYPTOCAP:BTC goes down, and vice-versa.
However, this novel idea puts a break to it.
TVC:DXY is hitting the bottoms of its uptrending channel, and it's likely to bounce back up towards the ceilings.
Which means a rally is likely, and this is kinda good for $BTC.
I'll remain bullish, until the numbers say otherwise.
DXY Outlook: Can Fed Hold Spark a Move Toward 100?DXY Weekly Forecast – July Week 4
After reaching 96.50 early this month, DXY began showing bullish signs. Last week, price retested the extreme demand zone at 97.00 and closed with a bearish weekly candle that held some bullish pressure at the base.
This week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting. If the Fed holds rates steady, the dollar could strengthen further. A weekly close above 97.90 would confirm the breakout and open the door to a run toward 100.00 — a key psychological and technical level.
Bias: Bullish (if 97.90 breaks)
Key Zones:
• Demand: 97.00
• Breakout Level: 97.90
• Target: 100.00
This could be the beginning of a fresh bullish leg — especially if macro conditions align with technical structure.
—
Weekly forecast by Sphinx Trading
Let me know your bias in the comments.
#DXY #DollarIndex #ForexForecast #SphinxWeekly #SmartMoney #FOMC #USD #InterestRates
DXY forecast From weekly view the DXY is looking bearish at least till 95.123 key level the will see if we get a bullish power as the DXY is forming a reversal pattern. But of course many factors plays part in this economy, for example, global news like Tariffs and other factors.
So when DXY is trading on the 95.123 key level additional confluence will give us the right to put on trades, as the 95.123 key level is significant for what will take place next.
Take you all.......
DXY 4Hour TF - July 27, 2025DXY 7/27/2025
DXY 4hour Bearish Idea
Monthly - Bearish
Weekly - Bearish
Dailly - Bearish
4hour - Bearish
**We analyze DXY as an indicator of USD strength on a week to week basis**
This week is looking like we can expect bearish momentum on USD but here are two scenarios breaking down the potential:
Bearish Continuation - USD pulled a strong bearish reversal all last week which pushed us below our major 98.000 support zone.
We are now testing that same 98.000 zone as resistance and are looking to see if it will hold. Ideally, we can confirm further bearish structure to gain confidence in a bearish USD for the week ahead.
Bullish Reversal- For us to consider DXY as bullish again we would need to see bullish structure above our 98.000 zone. This would include: A break back above 98.000 with an established HH and HL.
Breakout of the channelAfter the DXY broke out of the channel, it formed a range.
We can see a yellow trendline where the price is moving exactly along it.
If this trendline breaks to the downside, we can take a short position targeting the bottom of the channel.
Otherwise, it would mean the trend reversal in DXY is confirmed.
DXY weekly outlookDXY Weekly Outlook
This week, I’m watching to see if the dollar continues its bearish trend or breaks above the current supply zone. We've already seen a strong reaction from the 8hr supply, but price could still tap into the 1hr supply before making its next move.
If price drops from here, I’ll be looking at the 2hr demand zone below for a possible bullish reaction. If DXY pushes up from that zone, pairs like EU and GU could drop — which lines up with my overall short bias on those.
Gold may not always move in sync with the dollar, but DXY still gives a good idea of market sentiment.
Let’s see how it plays out and stay reactive.
DXYDXY needs some more correction, if the correction is completed before Feds decision then a drop can follow otherwise Feds will push it up and NFP will drop it again.
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
DXY index moving towards down in higher timeframeAs you can see DXY index is moving inside channel and now its time for second swing failure to go down.Then channel movement will finish and it will breakout towards upward so i recomand trade USD pairs accordingly.This is my analysis not a financial advice so trade according your risk management.
Dollar Index Dips – All Eyes on 97.600?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading just below the 100.000 🔼 resistance area, following a series of lower highs and lower lows that reflect a clear bearish trend. Price is now approaching the 97.600 🔽 level, which has previously acted as a key turning point and could influence the next directional move.
Support at: 97.600 🔽
Resistance at: 100.000 🔼, 101.500 🔼, 102.812 🔼, 104.223 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔽 Bearish: The trend remains bearish while price stays below 100.000. A break below 97.600 may lead to further downside continuation.
🔼 Bullish: A bounce from 97.600 followed by a move back above 100.000 could open the door for a recovery toward 101.500.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
DXY HEADING INTO LAST WEEK OF JULY DXY ZONES
WEEKLY TF, TO DAILY, TO 4HR ANALYSIS.
The successful devaluation of the dollar by the administration since the election continues.
DXY dumped below key daily support at 97.600.
It was reclaimed but failed at key daily resistance dating back to 2024 — the same zone as the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
Failure to gain support at 97.580 (0.23 Fib level) = a bearish signal for the dollar index (DXY), potentially sending it back down to the 97.100–97.200 range. If that breaks, look for a further continuation toward the 96.700–96.800 zone.
This is a big week for news, reports, and interest rate decisions for the U.S., EUR, and CAD, as we close out July.
Still bearish on DXY for now.
However, if the dollar can break through the 97.950–98.000 range and catch support — then push past the 98.135–98.200 zone (0.618 Fib level) — I’ll be looking for a long entry on DXY up to the 98.900–99.400 zone for the next test.
Again, I remain bearish for now, but depending on the data and what the Fed does with U.S. rates, we could see a strong DXY this week. Until we pass those zones, I’m staying bearish.
New to trading (6 months in) — before you leave any hate comments:
I’m here to learn and would genuinely appreciate any advice or help in becoming better and more thorough.
USDX at a crucial price point, which will decide trendThe next few candles for USDX price will be extremely important to understand where the dollar index is headed.
Based on that, we'll be able to choose 'which' Forex pairs we can trade, and more importantly 'how' we can trade them.
If price starts to follow the green line, and takes out 99.000, we'll be in an uptrend.
If price goes back to the red line and eventually goes below 96.400, we'll be in a downtrend.
Hopefully price won't consolidate too much, and trend in a particular direction.
Dollar Reversal? Inverse Head & Shoulders Spotted!Is the Dollar Index bottoming out? I break down a potential Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the DXY chart — a classic reversal setup that could signal a major trend change. See as I analyze the key neckline breakout zone, potential upside targets and golden zone fib support defended confirming the pattern.
I hope you find this informative. Thank you for the boosts, comments and discussions of the idea. Cheers and best wishes on every trade
# USDCHF, #AUDUSD, #USDJPY, #EURUSD, #GBPUSD Forex pairs
Why a USD Bounce Could Trigger a Stock PullbackThe US Dollar has faced brutal selling during the first half of 2025. Some are even questioning whether the Dollar’s global hegemony is at risk. Early in the year the US stock market AMEX:SPY sold off aggressively, falling 19% from mid‑March to early April. Since then stocks have more than regained their losses and the Dollar is still in the tank. So where does that leave us for the rest of the year?
The Dollar Inverse Correlation
The US Dollar has an inverse correlation to most everything. Stocks, bonds, crypto, commodities, real estate — all are measured in Dollars. Therefore when the Dollar loses value, all things equal it takes more of them to reach the same value those assets were denominated at before. Conversely when the Dollar rises, other assets lose value in Dollar terms. Here we can see a long standing inverse correlation to stocks AMEX:SPY
Dollar in oversold territory
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes on a scale from 0 to 100 to help identify overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) conditions. The Dollar has hit oversold several times so far this year, but not yet staged a material recovery.
Stocks in overbought territory
Meanwhile stocks have staged a blistering rebound off the "Liberation Day" driven selloff earlier this year. The S&P 500 now sits at an all‑time high, and you guessed it, has tapped overbought twice this month.
USD is fundamentally attractive
Because investors seek to earn the highest available yield on their capital, they tend to move funds into currencies offering higher interest rates (and away from those with lower rates), so differences in policy rates across countries create incentives for cross‑border borrowing and lending that drive FX flows. For example the Fed ( ECONOMICS:USINTR ) is at 4.5%, and the ECB ( ECONOMICS:EUINTR ) is at 2.15%. Moreover the Dollar is down significantly against major trading pairs that have lower yields. In our prior example the Dollar is down 11.98% against the Euro YTD (1- FX:EURUSD ), leaving substantial room for capital gains. Gravity could lure FX traders back in the second half of 2025.
Tariff calculus
Tariffs tend to bolster the imposing country’s currency in two main ways: by making imports more expensive they reduce import volumes, improving the trade balance (i.e. fewer foreign‑currency outflows), and by collecting duties in domestic currency the government effectively withdraws that currency from circulation, increasing its relative scarcity. Both effects lift demand for—and support the value of—the home currency.
Putting it all together
Despite the TVC:DXY ’s ~10.8% YTD slide and repeated oversold conditions, the compelling carry trade sets the stage for a USD bounce that, in turn, could pressure overextended equities. With stocks stretched and the Dollar oversold, the carry‑driven rebound in USD could well presage a pullback in equities. Stocks are expensive, Dollars are cheap 🤑