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USD Index (USX) / US Dollar

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US Dollar Index - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermM15 - Strong bearish move. No opposite signs. Currently it looks like a pullback is happening. Expecting bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EIGHTCAP:USDXShort
by VladimirRibakov
Hmmm, DXYThere is something quite telling about the DXY that has me rubbing my chin. If the DXY continues it's downtrend this year and even next year, what would it mean for assets against the dollar, especially crypto currencies, mainly Bitcoin? Typically, Bitcoin's 4 year cycle is bearish on the 4th year but that was for the last 15 or so years when the dollar was in an uptrend. What would happen on the fourth year for Bitcoin during a crashing DXY? Is it safe to hold crypto currencies this end of cycle? I have a feeling that if the DXY continues to fall, crypto will continue to rise even during the 4th year when the bears usually take over. The take over may happen, but with a minor correction (32.8 possibly) that whiplashes a bit more than it trends, before it trends again. Stay tuned!
TVC:DXYShort
by illagodzilla
DXY Neutral -BearishCAPITALCOM:DXY Quick read / bias Near-term neutral → biased bearish. Price has failed to produce a clean reversal from the large consolidation at the top, shows a series of lower-highs and liquidity hunts (marked ellipses / Imbalance repairs on the chart), and a visible “downside pressure” supply region above. The path of least resistance is down unless price reclaims the supply/consolidation zone above ~98.6–99.2. ------------------------------------------------ Key levels (from the chart) Major consolidation / supply: ~99.2 – 99.8 (big-picture resistance). Downside pressure / mid supply: ~98.5 – 98.8 (area to sell into). Recent micro highs: 98.39, 98.19, 97.99 (loci for liquidity). Current price (chart right): ~97.18. Recent local low/liquidity grab: 96.834. Weekly void / structural bottom to watch: 96.478 (labelled on chart). Invalidation for bearish thesis: close/hold above 99.2 (reclaim of consolidation). ------------------------------------------------ How I read the structure (step-by-step) Price spent time in a higher consolidation zone and then failed to reverse higher — that is a distribution / supply footprint rather than demand. The chart shows several short liquidity hunts above swing highs (grey ellipses) and subsequent strong selling — classic stop-hunts into supply then continuation lower. Imbalances / small supply boxes on the chart mark places the market tends to retest before continuing — these are high-probability sell zones on rallies. The sequence of lower highs and a recent push down to ~96.83 (buyer defence) gives a local support but not yet a valid reversal signal. Until price chops through the weekly void (96.478) or reclaims the supply, expect range/biased-down behavior. ------------------------------------------------ Trade setups (actionable — use your 5-min/1-min workflow) I’ll give two primary setups: a higher-probability short (sell the rally) and a contrarian long (mean-reversion). Use 5-min to identify displacement into the zone and 1-min for the exact micro reversal entry. ------------------------------------------------ Setup A — Primary: Short on rally into supply (preferred) Why: Market structure + downside pressure + Imbalance above make rallies into supply favourable. Area to enter (limit or wait for 1-min reversal): 98.00 – 98.20 (ideal limit ~98.10). Stop loss: 98.45 (just above the 98.39 / structure swing and above the Imbalance top). Targets (scale): T1: 97.00 — first logical demand and psychological level. T2: 96.50 — deeper swing support / mid structural level. T3: 96.478 — weekly void bottom (big target if momentum continues). Risk / reward (example entry 98.10 → stop 98.45): Risk = 0.35 index points. R:T1 ≈ 1.10 / 0.35 ≈ 3.14:1. R:T2 ≈ 1.60 / 0.35 ≈ 4.57:1. R:T3 ≈ 1.622 / 0.35 ≈ 4.63:1. Trigger: 5-min displacement into the 98.0–98.2 zone, then 1-min rejection pattern (pin bar / engulf / two-bar reversal) and ideally a filled Imbalance or wick extension that fails. Enter limit at Imbalance top or use a short after 1-min confirmation. ------------------------------------------------ Setup B — Secondary: Mean-reversion long (countertrend) Why: Buyers defended the 96.83 area previously; a clean, verified micro reversal at lower support can produce a quick retrace. This is lower probability vs the sell-the-rally plan and should be sized smaller. Area to enter (limit/1-min confirmation): 96.75 – 96.95 (example limit 96.85). Stop loss: 96.45 (below the 96.48 weekly void and the local wick). Targets (scale): T1: 97.40 (near recent chop / first structure). T2: 97.99 (previous micro high). T3: 98.39 (if momentum shifts to reclaim structure). Risk / reward (example entry 96.85 → stop 96.45): Risk = 0.40. R:T1 ≈ 0.55 / 0.40 ≈ 1.38:1. R:T2 ≈ 1.14 / 0.40 ≈ 2.85:1. R:T3 ≈ 1.54 / 0.40 ≈ 3.85:1. Trigger: Look for a 5-min exhaustion and 1-min clean micro reversal (two-bar bullish rejection) ideally with buy volume or a wick that holds. Keep size smaller than on shorts. ------------------------------------------------ Intraday scalp idea (quick) Long scalp on a 1-min reversal after a displacement down to ~96.83 with tight stop under the wick (e.g. 5–8 ticks) and target 97.20–97.40. Use only if price shows clean microstructure and momentum. Trade management rules Positioning: Risk a fixed % per trade (e.g., 0.5–1% of account) and size accordingly. The short setup has high RR — size to risk tolerance. Partial take: Take ~50% at T1, move stop to breakeven, let remainder run to T2/T3. If price stalls at T1: tighten stop to lock profit or exit if structure shows weakness. If price breaks and holds above 98.60 / 99.2: exit shorts and flip to neutral/bullish plan — the initial bearish thesis is invalidated. Use your timeframe combo: identify the displacement on 5-min, execute 1-min entry confirmation. ------------------------------------------------ Invalidation / alternative scenario Bearish invalidation: clean, sustained close above 98.6–99.2 (consolidation re-claim) — if that happens, the market likely shifts to bullish and short ideas should be abandoned. Bullish trigger: rally above 99.2 with follow-through and a higher low -> targets back toward 99.8. ------------------------------------------------ Final prediction Over the next sessions I expect failed rallies into 98.0–98.6 to be sold, which should gravitate price toward 97.00 → 96.50 → 96.48 if momentum confirms. Countertrend longs are possible as scalps/swing trades off 96.8–96.48, but they should be treated as lower-probability and sized smaller. If price instead reclaims and holds >99.2, the bearish bias is invalidated.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by JP_Tru
The Buck’s Getting Bucked“Rule #1: Respect Bitcoin. Rule #2: When you think you’ve respected it enough…double it. Big players like BlackRock manage trillions of dollars. They usually keep their money in things like U.S. dollars and government bonds because that’s been the “safe spot” forever. But the dollar keeps losing buying power and the U.S. keeps adding debt. So these big funds are starting to put a small slice of their cash into Bitcoin—a digital money that nobody can print more of. It’s not that the dollar is disappearing tomorrow. They just want a backup that can’t be inflated away. When companies with that much money start buying, it makes Bitcoin look less like a fad and more like the next big “store of value.”
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
Dollar Index Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 091125Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 97.4/61.80% Chart time frame:B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress:A A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find an entry-level position. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of the slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over the 61.80% level, that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, TradingView provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with the fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill of to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low points of rising stocks. If you prefer long-term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day
TVC:DXY
by fibonacci6180
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) into Core CPI — key levelsContext (macro) PPI is upstream; CPI is what the market prices. Core CPI at 08:30 ET (14:30 SAST) will set the near-term path for the USD, UST yields, gold, and risk assets. The tape is positioned for a directional move outcome depends on whether core inflation is softer, in-line, or hot. Daily DXY chart Structure: An inverse head-and-shoulders completed into late July with a clear break of structure. Since then, price has flagged back inside the prior value area in a descending channel, sitting mid-range. Range: Roughly 97.3–98.6 is the active box. Liquidity markers: Swing low: ~97.1–97.3 (recent liquidity sweep). Swing high: ~100.0–100.5 (unresolved liquidity from July spike). Bias from structure: Post-break bullish continuation is favoured if the channel resolves up, but repeated supply above 98.5 means confirmation matters. Levels that matter: Support: 97.30–97.40 (range floor). Beneath that: 97.10, then 96.60 (the “head” low). Resistance: 98.40–98.60 (range cap). Above: 98.90–99.10 (channel top/throw-over), then 100.0–100.5 (swing-high liquidity). Event-driven scenarios (Core CPI 08:30 ET / 14:30 SAST): Soft CPI (sub-consensus core) Reaction path: USD offered → DXY breaks 97.30 → 97.10 test; follow-through opens 96.60. Confirmation: A 4H close below 97.30 that fails to reclaim on retest. Cross-asset: UST yields down, gold up, risk bid; EUR, GBP, commodity FX supported; USDJPY heavy. In-line CPI (near consensus) Reaction path: First move likely fades; range persists 97.8–98.2 with whipsaws. Market waits for next catalyst (Fed speak/data). Tactics: Fade extremes of the box until a daily close breaks 97.30 or 98.60. Hot CPI (above consensus core or sticky services) Reaction path: USD squeezes → clean break and hold above 98.60 → attack 98.90–99.10. Sustained acceptance above 99.10 puts 100.0–100.5 back in play. Confirmation: Daily close above 98.60, followed by shallow pullbacks that hold former resistance as support. Cross-asset: UST 2s/10s yields up, gold pressured, risk off; EUR/GBP slip; USDJPY supported with yields. Trading plan logic (not advice): Bullish continuation trigger: Daily close > 98.60, then hold 98.40–98.60 on retest. Targets 98.90–99.10, extension 100.0–100.5. Bearish breakdown trigger: 4H close below 97.30 and failed reclaim. Targets 97.10 then 96.60. Invalidations: For longs, a shove back inside the channel that loses 98.10 after a breakout. For shorts, inability to hold below 97.30 within 1–2 sessions post-break (bear trap risk around CPI). Why this setup matters: We’ve got compression inside a descending channel parked on prior value. CPI is the release valve. Don’t anchor on the first spike; wait for acceptance beyond 98.60 or 97.30 to avoid getting chopped.
TVC:DXY
by Tradebudz
LIQUIDITY GAMES: DOLLAR HOLDS THE LINE WHILE CRYPTO SURGESWe head into a heavy news flow week with CPI Thursday and the FOMC next Wednesday. It’s easy to expect continuation of bearish economic data — but don’t think for a second that news alone will simply make price drop. The dollar has been holding and absorbing both sides of the market for the past month. This kind of structure often creates the opposite effect of what headlines suggest. While traders lean bearish, the dollar could easily run higher into mid-range before rolling over. We’ve seen this pattern before — gold rush movements and Bitcoin rallies that unfold without the dollar moving. It’s planned this way, building liquidity by trapping both sides. From a CORE5 perspective: – Structure → BTC is pressing toward the 124K liquidity zone, while DXY consolidates in balance. – Dynamic Symmetry → rallies and pullbacks are aligned; watch for rotation if dollar squeezes higher. – Volume & Order Flow → Bitcoin flows remain elevated, but sustainability hinges on post-CPI reactions. – Confluence → Risk pairs remain vulnerable if DXY snaps higher, despite crypto’s relief bid. Beaware - In weeks like this, price action around news is designed to confuse. Stay focused on structure and confluence, not headlines. Trading is only fun when you’re on the winning side — guessing usually lands you on the other
TVC:DXY
by CORE5DAN
Strength of the $The U.S. dollar is facing a rare convergence of structural and cyclical headwinds in 2025, and analysts expect its decline to continue into 2026. Here’s a breakdown of the most influential factors driving the dollar’s weakness: --- ## 📉 Key Drivers of Dollar Decline ### 1. **Federal Reserve Policy Shift** - The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25–50 basis points due to soft labor data and rising unemployment (now at 4.3%). - Lower interest rates reduce the yield advantage of dollar-denominated assets, making them less attractive to global investors. ### 2. **Surging U.S. Debt and Treasury Issuance** - Debt-to-GDP is approaching **130%**, one of the highest in history. - Massive Treasury issuance to fund deficits is creating bond market volatility and investor fatigue. - Foreign holders are increasingly hedging or reducing exposure to U.S. debt. ### 3. **Political and Fiscal Uncertainty** - Post-election trade policies, tariff announcements, and fiscal gridlock have eroded confidence in U.S. governance. - Currency traders are pricing in higher risk premiums for U.S. assets. ### 4. **Global De-Dollarisation Trends** - BRICS nations and others are settling trade in non-dollar currencies like the yuan. - The dollar’s share of global FX reserves has dropped to ~58%, down from 71% in 2000. - This shift is accelerating as geopolitical blocs strengthen outside the U.S. orbit. ### 5. **Safe-Haven Rotation** - Investors are diversifying into gold, commodities, and crypto: - Gold has surged past **$3,600/oz**, with projections up to $5,000. - Bitcoin and Ethereum are gaining traction as digital hedges against fiat depreciation. --- ## 🧠 Strategic Implications - **Import inflation**: A weaker dollar makes foreign goods more expensive, pressuring consumer prices. - **Export boost**: U.S. goods become more competitive abroad, which could help manufacturing. - **Asset reallocation**: Global investors may shift toward emerging markets, commodities, or alternative currencies.
TVC:DXY
by apkaiser80
DXY Trade Outlook – Sept 10, 2025DXY currently sits at a critical zone with mixed timeframe confluence: Weekly: Bearish bias still intact. Daily: Bullish structure after tapping into POI. 4H: Bearish at extreme POI. Key Note: Not expecting a strong close below 97.80, although intraday spikes may occur. Watching for confirmation before directional commitment. Outlook: Neutral-to-bullish bias in the short term, but bigger picture remains capped by higher-timeframe bearish structure.
TVC:DXYLong
by sam_trades_smc
DXY and Bitcoin since 2009 - compare PA and see possible paths This is a very clear Chart with the DXY Index on top and the Bitcoin Index below, Both starting in 2009. You tell me which is more volatile. Things to take note of here See how, Most of the time, when DXY Rises, Bitcoin Drops. Compare the dates on both charts and see this. And what REALLY needs to be paid attention to Right now is how the DXY is back on its lower trend line of Support. It has bounced off this trend line many times since 2009 We maybe about to see another one anytime between now and Dec. The interesting thing about this is simply that should the FED Cut Rates next week, this reduces the desire to hold $ as returns are diminished. This would Drop the DXY below the support it created in 2008. The chart below shows DXY since 1973 and what happened on major rate cuts As you can see, nearly Every time, DXY Drops when Rates are cut. So, The question is this. If The FED drops rates, will DXY Drop below a strong line of support and BTC Rise as Risk becomes cheaper. ? OR Will DXY go against the tradition, bounce off support and Rise as Rates lower the cost of borrowing the $ and industry investment grows ? This could also lead to an increase in investment in Bitcoin. For Bitcoin, there are many things that say we are near a Top but still have room to move higher. But there are also a number of things that point towards the pattern of previous cycles are changed. The ETF system leading to Bitcoin being bought and Held, stopping the massive price swings could be a major factor. Look what happened to GOLD after the ETF were allowed in 2004 The asset has Risen ever since. But it has to be said, Bitcoin % of profit since 2009 is Many Many times more than Gold ! We are at a crossroads for all these assets Next week the FED tells us if they will Cut rates as expected. We will then see how Markets react Hang on tight Ladies and Gents. We have some interesting days ahead.
TVC:DXY
by Orriginal
Dollar Inde: back in the range / potential move to >100Dollar Index is coming back in the range of the previous correction before the drop in the first 2 days of the week. As we're typing we still cannot rule out another small correction for more downside. However, as price proceeds to the upside, we will take a look at today's close: if price closes the daily candle above the previous 3 weeks low and the previous month low, we will start looking for buy setups all the way back to the 100 area, as previously discussed. Stay tuned for more updates on short opportunities on EURUSD, GBPUSD and NZDUSD (this last one is technically not in the dollar basket but could have the potential for a nice drop too because the move could be dollar driven only).
TVC:DXYLong
by profxedge
DXY countertrend play | 9 SEPT📌 Key Observations: Asian session highs swept ➡️ liquidity grab complete. Price reacted from resistance zone (97.470 – 97.576) 🟦. Minor LQC marked — a close below this level confirms bearish continuation. 🎯 Targets: First downside target: 97.300 (intra-day liquidity pocket). Main target: 97.100 🔽. ⛔ Invalidation: A clean break & hold above 97.576 would shift bias back to bullish intraday. ⚡ Trade Summary: Looking for short opportunities after this liquidity sweep, aligned with overall bearish momentum. A confirmed rejection from resistance strengthens the short setup. Patience is key — wait for candlestick confirmation before entry.
TVC:DXYLong
by sam_trades_smc