USXUSD trade ideas
DXY Intraday Overview- US Dollar Index (DXY) breached the symmetrical triangle downwards and sustained downwards.
- It indicates that sellers are still strong, hence the structure remains downwards.
🔽 If the immediate support level of 97.80 (fib level 0.786) is broken again, then the price will continue its fall to the next support zone between 97.56 - 97.50
🔼 However, if the price manages to recover and break through the resistance level of 97.90, we can expect a further rise to the level of 98.00.
DXY – Big Week Ahead, Watch These Zones-Dollar still stuck in a range. No need to guess, just watch the heavy levels:
-96.66 = bullish liquidity zone
-99.80 = bearish liquidity zone
-This week is packed with heavy news:
-NFP Friday – jobs report could shake markets hard
-Fed credibility under fire – politics trying to pressure the central bank
-Be careful with dollar pairs — market makers love stop hunts around news.
Best to stay patient → let price show which zone breaks first.
Bullish reversal?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 97.49
1st Resistance: 98.15
1st Support: 97.16
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correction It is expected that a trend change will form within the current support range and we will witness the beginning of an upward trend. If the 78.6% level is broken, the downward trend will continue to the specified support ranges.
The DXY chart for my EURUSD & EURFUTURES tradeCant see it all but theres a perfectly formed very long leg which is 200 bars long and 1000pips, then a perfectly formed 12hr ascending flag, 3 different trendlines which have even HH HLs on 2 of them, and lastly a 2hr support turned resistance entry at the 12hr flag retest after the breakout.
DXY: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 97.275 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
US job numbers this week. Keeping an eye on USD and US indicesWe are keeping a close eye on the US job numbers this week, as those fall into the Fed's spotlight. The expectations are low, so it would be interesting to see if the numbers can get even lower. Let's take a look.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
FX_IDC:EURUSD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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Do you believe that the US dollar will continue to fall or not?Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about the US dollar losing its status as a reserve currency. If you look at the chart of the USD index, you can see that it has decreased from its peak in 2022 (114.77) to its current level (96.37), which is a drop of around 16% over the past two and a half years.
From a technical perspective, this drop makes sense, as the dollar's popularity had grown before, and it gained more than 62% between the lows of 2008 and the peaks in 2022. It would be difficult to list all the reasons why this increase occurred, but the main question now is whether the US currency will continue to decline or if it has a chance to recover.
Before we answer that, let's first determine which wave the USD index is currently in.
Based on my calculations, the growth cycle began at a level of 70.70 in the year 2008. Wave 1 represented an increase from 70.70 to 89.62 and took approximately two years to form. This wave was followed by Wave 2, which almost fully corrected Wave 1.
Wave 3 went from 72.69 to 103.82 (and, as expected, the third wave beats on five waves of a lesser order), with Wave 3 representing 1.618% of Wave 1.
Wave 4 gave a correction of 50% to the wavelength of Wave 3, in the short term, Wave 4 went beyond the maximum of Wave 1.
But this rule makes sense only for non-marginal markets. Futures markets, with their high margins, can lead to short-term price spikes that would not occur in markets without borrowed funds, so an intersection is allowed, which is usually limited to daily or intraday price changes.
Wave 4 lasted approximately 4.5 years, after which growth was continued by Wave 5. This raised the US dollar index to a level of 114.77, representing 1.272 percent of Wave 1. Therefore, it took approximately 14 years for the entire index to grow.
At the moment, the current growth of 70.70-114.77 has been adjusted by approximately 38.2%, and visually, the ABC structure appears complete. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index has made a third contact with the support line, which has been in place since April 2011. Based on this, it is likely that we can anticipate some recovery in the position of the US currency.
However, there is an important nuance that could overshadow medium-term predictions for the growth of the dollar. Specifically, it relates to the temporary adjustment parameter. As can be seen within the impulse wave, waves 2 and 4 were quite long in time, and therefore, the entire ABC pattern, in my view, occurred too quickly relative to the overall 14-year growth trend.
And the following conclusions follow from this:
1) Yes, we can expect a rebound from the long-term upward support, and it is even possible that we will see a move in the US Dollar Index to 105-105.5 or 108, but it is unlikely to be higher.
2) However, it is also worth noting that the US dollar is likely to continue its downward trend for the foreseeable future. Because a 2.5-year pullback is clearly not enough to correct a 14-year growth, temporary movements should also be comparable, and the external zigzag may well become a double or triple zigzag and continue the pullback towards the 50-61.8% Fibonacci level to the growth wave of 70.70-114.77. That is, either towards 92.80-93, or towards 87.60.
3) Recently, analysts at deVere Group, one of the world's largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations, suggested that the US currency will decline by another 10% over the next 12 months. This forecast is supported by similar predictions from other major financial institutions, which foresee a decline in the US currency due to slower growth, aggressive rate cuts and disruptions to global trade. www.tradingview.com
DXY Forecast: H&S Continuation Pattern?The DXY rebound between July and August has shaped a head and shoulders pattern. The chart is now testing the downside breakout, with the daily RSI turning bearish and slipping below the 50 level. A clean break below the 97.50 support could extend losses toward 97.20 and 96.50, with the full head and shoulders pattern pointing to a potential move down toward the 95.00–94.50 zone.
On the upside, a rebound above the 98.00 level would suggest some bullish recovery. However, a sustained move above 100.20 is needed to confidently shift the outlook toward a longer-term bullish reversal.
Key Events This Week
• ISM PMIs: to clarify US economic activity (Tuesday–Thursday)
• US NFPs and their impact on rate cut expectations and DXY price action (Friday)
• Effects of US trade and legal developments, EU political shifts, and Middle East escalations on risk sentiment
- Razan Hilal, CMT
DXY - Dollar Could Rise if Fed's Cook Wins Fight Against Her DiDollar investors would express relief if U.S. courts thwart President Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve, Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyen says in a note. A court on Friday heard Fed Governor Lisa Cook's request for a temporary retraining order to block Trump from removing her from the role. The hearing ended without a ruling. Trump faces the threat of a defeat as it seems questionable whether the grounds for Cook's dismissal are legally valid, Nguyen says. If the Fed's independence holds firm and the court rules against Cook's dismissal, the dollar could rise. "However, the courts' final ruling is still pending. It's "by no means guaranteed" that Trump would accept a ruling against him, she says.
DXY | 1SPT directional sentiment (SMC)“DXY moving like it just clocked in for a Monday shift 🥱📉… got smacked with that Friday LQC and now stumbling down to 97.100 like it’s chasing a Black Friday discount 🛒. Daily bias still bearish, 4H looking weak, and on the 1H the bulls tryna flex but only after sweeping some liquidity 🐂➡️🚪.
If price taps back into that chef’s POI kitchen 🍳 and fails to hold, the bears finna drag this straight to the basement 📉🐻. Until then, we vibin’ in discount land waiting for confirmation signals. This POI remains the make-or-break zone 🧩 heading into the next sessions.”**
DXY preview for the month of September 2025,dxy on the daily timeframe has created a bos on the 4hours and daily timeframe but this failed to significantly happen on the sellside, only minor bos occured. i expect a draw on liquidity on the sellside and then a oush bak up to the buyside as price is playing and dancing around the 97.500 zone. we stay reactive to what price is doing regardless.
Title: USDX 4H — expectations vs realityThe dollar index once again finds itself in a position where heroic posture doesn’t match reality. Price is capped at 97.85 right at the 0.382 Fibonacci level and every move higher quickly fades like a spark in the rain. If the breakout fails the road towards 97.24 and 96.90 seems far more realistic since the 0.618 retracement and demand zone are located there.
Moving averages are pressing from above, volumes don’t support the bulls and technically the setup favors weakness rather than strength.
Watching USD behavior every dip in gold silver euro and pound becomes a clear swing trading buy opportunity.
Fundamentally the dollar is also under pressure as markets expect a dovish Fed, Treasury yields stay weak and risk appetite drives capital into other assets. In the end the greenback looks more like a tired runner than a sprinter ready to race.
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently exhibiting a bearish trend, driven by a combination of dovish Federal Reserve expectations, weakening economic confidence, and technical breakdowns. Market sentiment has shifted toward potential rate cuts, with investor concerns over the Fed’s independence and rising U.S. fiscal risks adding further pressure.
DXY Weekly Price Forecast DXY has been moving sideways - Caution trading this week wait for proper weekly candle body closes before looking for a directional bias
DXY :Signs of weakness towards support at 95, even 91DXY:
Signs of weakness towards support at 95, even 91 are gradually becoming evident.
With this scenario, it will be a bad scenario for gold, gold will increase in price to other very high levels.
DXY Bullish Structure Outlook – September 2025Description:
This chart highlights a bullish idea on the Dollar Index (DXY), with structure and liquidity concepts driving the outlook.
Swing Structure:
Price formed a major swing low after a clear BOS (break of structure) to the downside. From there, buyers stepped in, creating a new swing high and pushing into an external BOS, confirming higher-timeframe strength.
Weak Highs & Liquidity Pools:
Multiple weak highs (highlighted in orange) remain unprotected and serve as liquidity targets. These highs are unlikely to hold, suggesting the market will eventually raid them as it seeks upside continuation.
Demand Zones & Failed Close:
Despite temporary sell-offs, the market failed to close below key support (annotated near 97.80–97.00), showing absorption of selling pressure. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) also act as areas of re-accumulation where buyers can step back in.
Schematic Alignment:
The lower schematic illustrates the anticipated accumulation process: a BOS/CHOCH leading into demand mitigation, followed by higher-lows being built and a final expansion phase. This aligns with the live chart, projecting a bullish run once the corrective phase completes.
Outlook:
As long as price respects the current demand zone, DXY is positioned for continuation to the upside, with liquidity objectives above 99.00 and potentially 100+. A deeper retracement toward 96.00–95.00 would still fit the bullish accumulation model and provide an additional long opportunity.
DXYThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is a financial index that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. It is widely used to gauge the overall strength or weakness of the US dollar in global currency markets.
DOLLAR index on weekly trendline ,the fed rate decision is expected for forward guidance .
#dxy
Forex Weekly Review: Fundamental analysis. USD to weaken? The week starting Monday 25 August ended where it began, with roughly an 85% likelihood of a September FED rate cut.
There was a lot of external noise in-between. But all the while, the currencies 'movement' remained fairly muted.
Given the reaction to chair Powell's speech the previous Friday, I was quite surprised by the USD strength on Monday.
Throughout the week, we did get a few 'events', namely Mr Trump 'firing' FED member cook, whilst simultaneously stirring the tariff pot. The firing of COOK is an interesting one as it brings into question the FED's independence and is a scenario that could rumble on for a while. We also got 'discouraging' forward guidance from NVIDEA. On another week, all of these narratives would have 'likely' spurred 'sour sentiment'. But any moves were muted, which I put down to many traders being away on 'summer breaks', the fact the VIX hovered around 15 all week (despite the negativity) backs up this theory.
In other news, we did a bit of 'action,' on Monday when political uncertainty in France weakened the EUR. And on Friday 'in line with expectations' US PCE data (eventually) weakened the USD. The theory being inflation is still benign enough for the FED to cut rates in September.
Finally, 'soft' CAD GDP data keeps a BOC September rate cut firmly on the table.
On a personal note, I only really perceived two opportunities all week, the EUR weakness on Monday (which I didn't trade) and the USD opportunity on Friday (GBP USD long). Although that was a tricky one because the dollar did initially strengthen on the headline. We only saw the 'true reaction' once the US market opened.
Throughout the week, I did find myself a little frustrated with the lack of my perceived opportunities over the last few weeks, I'm very intrigued to see if volume picks up once 'institutional traders' return to their desks.
I begin the new week with my 'risk on' bias in tact (particularly following weekend news of a supreme court tariff ruling). But I suspect the narrative surrounding the US jobs market could play a big role this week.
Results:
Trade 1: GBP USD +1.2
Total = +1.2%
DOLLAR INDEX CURRENCY We will be looking for bullish opportunities as the market its on an EQL Zone Resulting possible buying opportunities, the dollar will be strong |1H TIMEFRAME
US Dollar: A Bit Lower Before Moving Higher? Happy September!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept. 1 - 5th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD is more bearish than bullish. Yes. However, it is still in correction territory. That is to say, it could potentially move higher from current levels. It is in consolidation, ranging here for weeks. Sept may bring the volume to move price out of the summer range. Let's be prepared for it!
React and do not predict.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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DXY Outlook – Bearish Lean, Choppy SetupDollar had a hard run the last three weeks with heavy bearish candles on the weekly. Price action has been messy, not easy to just get in and ride. My bias is still bearish, but I’m also looking at the bigger picture.
On the monthly chart, key distribution sits under 94.095 and we haven’t reached it yet. Over the last two months price has been filling the bullish order block around 95.971 order block on the dollar index. If the market maker decides to move, it could go fast once the data lines up, whether in the first or second week.
Right now we are sitting in a bearish volume channel lower end. Selling late is not smart because most of the move has already passed. That doesn’t mean there are no trades, but it does mean higher frequency and tighter risk until the next clear setup.
From the economic side the jobs data is weak with only 73K added last month, which keeps pressure on the Fed to cut. The Fed is also seen as politicized, which hurts credibility and weighs on the dollar. Markets are already pricing a September cut and analysts are leaning bearish. At the same time inflation is still sticky near 2.9 percent while jobs are slowing, which leaves the Fed boxed in. Headline PCE is flat, not strong enough to flip hawkish and not weak enough to go fully dovish. That mix can trap the dollar between 97 and 100 until one side breaks.
Best move is to keep watching the data closely before trading dollar markets. Bias stays bearish, but chop risk is high.
