$CNGDPYY - China GDP (Q3/2025)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY
Q3/2025
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
- China’s economy expanded 4.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, down from 5.2% in Q2,
marking its slowest pace since Q3 2024.
While in line with market expectations,
the GDP growth has lost momentum after a strong start to the year, pressured by U.S. trade tensions, a prolonged property slump, and soft consumer demand.
September data showed retail sales in China rose at their slowest pace in a year despite ongoing consumer subsidy programs, while the jobless rate edged down but remained near August’s six-month high.
Industrial output, however, grew at its fastest pace in three months ahead of Golden Week.
On the trade front, exports and imports beat forecasts as firms pushed into new markets and domestic demand was boosted by holiday spending.
China’s statistics bureau cautioned that risks and external headwinds persist, with the recovery’s foundation still fragile.
Still, it said that 5.2% growth in the first nine months lays a “solid foundation” for meeting a full-year target of around 5%.
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$CNGDPYY -China GDP Growth Slows Less Than Expected (Q2/2025)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY
Q2/2025
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
- China’s economy expanded 5.2% yoy in Q2 2025, easing from 5.4% in the prior two quarters and marking the softest pace since Q3 2024.
Still, the latest reading narrowly beat estimates of 5.1%, supported in part by Beijing’s policy measures amid a fragile trade truce.
Growth momentum in H2 is projected to weaken further, due to headwinds from trade tensions, deflation risks, and a prolonged property slump.
$CNGDPYY -China's GDP (Q1/2025)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY 5.4%
Q1/2025
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
- China’s economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 of 2025,
maintaining the same pace as in Q4 and exceeding market expectations of 5.1%.
It remained the strongest annual growth rate in 1-1/2 years amid Beijing's ongoing stimulus.
The latest GDP readings were also buoyed by robust March activity:
industrial output rose at its fastest pace since June 2021, retail sales posted the biggest gain in over a year, and the surveyed jobless rate eased from a two-year high.
Fixed asset investment also slightly surpassed expectations in the first quarter.
On the trade front, exports recorded their strongest growth since October as firms accelerated shipments ahead of looming tariffs, while a drop in imports narrowed.
The statistics bureau said the Chinese economy was “off to a good and steady start” and highlighted the growing role of innovation.
However, intensifying trade tensions with the U.S. have quickly darkened the outlook, increasing pressure on Beijing to roll out additional support measures.
$CNGDPYY -China 2024 GDP Meets Official Target ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY
Q4/2024
- The Chinese economy expanded by 5.4% yoy in Q4 2024, topping estimates of 5.0% and accelerating from a 4.6% rise in Q3.
It was the strongest annual growth rate in 1-1/2 years, boosted by a series of stimulus measures introduced since September to boost recovery and regain confidence.
For full year, the GDP grew by 5.0%, aligning with Beijing's target of around 5% but falling short of a 5.2% rise in 2023.
$CNGDPYY - China's GDP (Q3/2024)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY Q3/2024
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
-The Chinese economy expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 of 2024,
compared with market forecasts of 4.5% and a 4.7% rise in Q2.
It marked the slowest annual growth rate since Q1 2023, amid persistent property weakness, shaky domestic demand, deflation risks, and trade frictions with the West.
The latest figures came as Beijing had intensified stimulus measures to boost economic recovery and rebuild confidence.
In September alone, there were some positive signs:
industrial output and retail sales both saw their largest increases in four months, and the urban jobless rate fell to a three-month low of 5.1%.
On the trade front, however, exports rose the least in five months while imports were sluggish. In the first three quarters of the year, the economy grew by 4.8%, compared with China’s full-year target of around 5%.
During the period, fixed investment rose by 3.4% yoy, topping consensus of 3.3%.




