The Big Fed Rate Cut Is Here. How Did Markets Do & What’s Next?“ Best we can do is 25bps ,” officials, probably, when they gathered to lower the federal funds rate. It wasn’t the 50 basis points some of you had expected. But you also didn’t expect to hear that two more trims are most likely coming by year end.
Let’s talk about that and what it means for your
Key data points
Last release
—
Observation period
Sep 17, 2025
Next release
—
Forecast
—
Highest
20.00 % on May 8, 1981
Lowest
0.25 % on Feb 28, 2022
About US interest rate
In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.
Related indicators
FOMC: Interest Rate Cut🏛️ Research Notes
Based on Chair Powell's press conference from September 17 '25, the FOMC decided to lower the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point. Since I’ve chosen to expand my research to include economic performance, I want to document the reasoning behind this decision.
Dual Cons
$USINTR - Fed Cuts Rates as Expected (September/2025)ECONOMICS:USINTR
September/2025
source: Federal Reserve
- The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25bps, bringing it to the 4.00%–4.25% range, in line with expectations.
It is the first reduction in borrowing costs since December. Policymakers noted that recent indicators suggest that
Recessions usually follow interest rate cutsFrom a historical perspective, it looks like recessions follow periods after the feds rate is cut.
Periods of technical recessions, where the technical definition is two negative GDP quarters):
Jan 1974 – Jun 1974 (Q1 & Q2 ’74)
Jan 1975 – Jun 1975 (Q1 & Q2 ’75)
Jan 1980 – Jun 1980 (Q1 & Q2 ’80)
Ju
What To Watch This WeekThe Federal Reserve (US) and Bank of Indonesia will announce their policy rate.
While Bank of Indonesia is expected to maintain rate at 5%, most Investors expect The Fed will (finally) cut rate to 4.25% from current 4.5% (since Dec'24).
This week might starts a 1-2 years Bullish Cycle for all asse
Interest Rates: The Hidden Driver of Markets📈 U.S. Interest Rates: From the Volcker Era to Today & Why September Could Be a Turning Point
When people talk about “the Fed,” they often forget just how much its decisions shape every asset class — from stocks and bonds to real estate and crypto. To understand the setup for September 2025, we ne
Central Banks, the Great Paradox of 2025This year 2025 reveals a paradox in the floating exchange market (Forex), a paradox I can describe as rare. The foundation of currency movements in the foreign exchange market lies in the divergence of monetary policies. In other words, it is the difference in the trajectory of interest rates among
Fed rate cut timing: September or October? The Jackson Hole Symposium has set the stage for renewed downside pressure on the U.S. dollar, as investors increasingly position for a 25-basis point Fed rate cut in September.
However, Morgan Stanley assigns only a 50% probability to such a move, suggesting that a September cut is far from guar
Markets Eye Policy, Positioning, and PerformanceCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! COMEX:GC1! FRED:FEDFUNDS
Happy 4th of August, Traders!
As we head into the new week, here’s a look at what’s on the calendar:
Key Economic Data Releases
Monday:
• Factory Orders (MoM) – June
• Supply: 3-Month Bill Auction, 6-Month Bill Auct
$USINTR -Feds Leaves Rates Steady (July/2025)ECONOMICS:USINTR
July/2025
source: Federal Reserve
- The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth straight meeting, defying President Trump’s demands for cuts even after positive GDP growth .
Still, two governors dissented in favor of a cut—the first such dual dissent since 1
See all ideas
Frequently Asked Questions
US interest rate is 4.25% at the moment.
Last month US interest rate was 4.25%, and the month before it reached 4.5%.
Interest rate is the proportion of a loan that is charged as interest to the borrower, typically an annual percentage of the loan outstanding. When it comes to the national level, interest rate is a rate at which banks borrow money from a country's central bank.
Yes, negative interest rate can be used by the government as a monetary policy tool to stimulate economy growth.
Growing or falling interest rate can influence the country's economy, stimulate it or lower the inflation level. Even people can feel the effect of interest rate's movements — for example, if interest rate increases, loans get more expensive.